GCC union will keep region stable

[Al Bhatti]

December 26, 2011

GCC union will keep region stable

Political unification preceded by economic integration will create an entity capable of handling strategic issues

Saudi King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz's proposal at the Riyadh summit of the GCC leaders last week to move beyond cooperation to the ‘union' has the making of a major initiative in creating a new and lasting balance of power in the troubled macro-region to which the GCC states belong.

The world awaits further elucidation of the idea of a "single entity" in March 2012 as the present situation is a trifle paradoxical. Despite great strides since its inception, the GCC's economic integration is still a work in progress. In other models such as the EU, a higher degree of economic harmonisation preceded political unification. The Riyadh declaration may, therefore, seem somewhat premature to outside observers. Viewed in a political perspective, however, the project is a timely response to a fast changing strategic landscape.

History got accelerated in the region both because of its internal dynamics and protracted foreign interventions. The Iranian revolution is an obvious example of the former while the monumental changes wrought by the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 illustrate the latter.

More recently, the so-called Arab Spring has introduced yet another factor that needs to be fully assimilated in what the Riyadh declaration defines as "the process of development and comprehensive reform", while "maintaining security, stability and national cohesion and social welfare". They have not experienced the volatility and violence witnessed in a number of other Arab states and are, therefore, in a unique position to craft a paradigm of sufficient, if calibrated, change. Needless to say that they would succeed better if they act in concert as a single entity.

One may pause to discuss briefly another phenomenon to which the region is subject. While western polities steadily advance towards closer integration, several orientalists, exemplified by Bernard Lewis, have advocated splitting of Middle Eastern states into unviable statelets. Iraq is often flagged for fission into two or three de facto or de jure sovereign entities reflecting ethnic and sectarian ‘realities'.

Whether intended or not, the proposed union would, in effect, challenge such divisive thoughts. Interlocking webs of Arab ‘communities' in the GCC area, North Africa and eastern Mediterranean may serve the larger Arab nation better than the rather hasty unions of revolutionary states in an earlier era.
In a rational analysis, destruction witnessed in Iraq and Afghanistan provides a compelling argument for averting yet another violent denouement in Iran-related issues. As a former ambassador to that country when its revolutionary ethos was more evangelical and it was fighting a long war with Iraq, I am all too aware of a tendency in Tehran to believe in a state of siege. Iran is now pragmatic enough to seek better relations with the GCC states even as it looks at them through the prism of its hostile relations with Washington. The ill-conceived political engineering in Iraq has enabled it to make geo-political gains that can fuel illogical ambitions. This demands vigilance by the GCC states though a dialogue still offers the best route to a settlement of differences. India has helped diversify Iran's commercial outreach and Tehran has executed projects with Central Asian states that increase its options. Nevertheless, the Arab states of the Gulf are still its lifeline.

There will be greater dangers to the region if Iraq explodes under ethnic and sectarian pressures. Disproportionate use of force in Syria may also entail its crisis flowing beyond its borders. Then Israel's intransigence, especially its unfettered colonisation of Palestinian land is building a head of steam that would inevitably push Arab masses towards a more proactive response.

Saudi diplomacy remains engaged with unfolding circumstances subtly and of late, Qatar and UAE have played a stronger role. The proposed union would make it easier to develop a collective response to the present and future challenges.

The GCC states possess a vast area bearing a major component of global energy resources; they have a small population and an economy employing a disproportionate number of expatriates. The union would be an asset in dealing advantageously with large states to the east that have issues amongst themselves.

Pakistan, a nuclear state, is a kindred buffer to all kinds of eastern winds but is at present hobbled by its own crises. The GCC union should fortify mutual security and stability, especially with increased direct GCC investment in it. India is an emerging power expected by the West to counter-balance China, strategically and economically. This will generate tensions particularly as India fulfils its ambition to have blue-water Navy projecting power in a vast stretch of water, including the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.

Before long Chinese air craft carriers would also be seen in this neighbourhood. None of these eastern powers are hostile to the GCC states but relations with them have to be managed with aplomb through periods when they engage in economic and political competition backed by huge armies of land, air and sea.

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is carrying forward the visionary tradition of late King Faisal; it is time to fast-track the GCC union to enhance regional security and development.

Tanvir Ahmad Khan is a former ambassador and foreign secretary of Pakistan.

gulfnews : GCC union will keep region stable

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King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is carrying forward the visionary tradition of late King Faisal; it is time to fast-track the GCC union to enhance regional security and development.

 

[Al Bhatti]

December 26, 2011

Realignment in Arab politics

Gulf Cooperation Council can spearhead development by building a comprehensive union

As 2011 draws to a close, it will be forever remembered as the year that finally put the Arabs in the limelight and did away with taunts about Arabs lagging behind when it comes to democracy and freedom. The criticism, about Arabs' "freedom deficit" and "exceptionalism" in terms of political development, accountability, political participation and peaceful and periodic change of leadership, should finally be laid to rest.

There is no doubt, 2011 has been a watershed year in Arab political history shaped by the ongoing uprisings and tumultuous changes that continue to mould the Arab political and social fabric and will hopefully catapult the region towards a better future. There is little doubt that the trend will continue into 2012 and may be beyond.

As Arab officials, the elite and laymen continue to ponder where they are heading, many unanswered questions pop up and force a rethink and debate on what these changes will entail. How should this power and fame be channelled? What will the demands and aspirations of the emboldened masses, especially the youth, be? How will one deal with the impact and forces of transition and guarantee it will not be hijacked by the remnants of autocratic regimes and forces opposed to change?

In essence, the main challenge in the Arab world today is how to maintain the momentum and ensure that the changes in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Libya and Syria (when they come), will be real and lasting. But through all of this, Arabs seem to lack a leadership role. As a whole, they seem leaderless!

Who leads the Arab world today? The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is most likely to emerge as the de facto leader of the Arab world with its moderate and accommodating politics, deep pockets, and influence in terms of being able to fund Arab countries' modernisation and infrastructure projects.

The GCC has played the role of mediator even before the Arab Spring — in Lebanon, Palestine and Sudan. Traditional powers like Egypt, Syria and Iraq are preoccupied with their domestic tectonic shifts. In the case of Iraq, there is bickering among its competing factions following the US withdrawal. That translates into the sidelining of the major power centres for years to come. This has prompted the GCC states to step in as the leaders of the Arab political system.

Unanimity

Arabs today are desperately in need of strong leadership and a role model to unite the beleaguered 22-member Arab League, whose members seldom agree on anything. Unanimity has been lacking in Arab politics and there are few qualified candidates who can step into the fray and tackle this challenge.

The six countries formed the GCC over three decades ago to channel their collective resources — mainly the soft power of oil and investment — to stave off the looming challenges surrounding this alliance. The challenges then were as enormous as they are today, from the Russian invasion and occupation of Afghanistan, to the toppling of the shah and the ascendance of the Islamic clergy in Iran.

However, the GCC alliance failed to deter an aggressor like Saddam Hussain or to balance an emboldened hegemonic power like Iran. Thus, it opted to sign security pacts with major powers led by the US to guard against the hostile environment of the region, beset by wars, terrorism and failed states.

Challenges

Today, three decades later, the Arab Spring is in full swing and threatens the status quo in some member states, the US military has withdrawn from Iraq and the country's Byzantine politics is on display. Iraq is teetering on the edge of the abyss again. Another round of violence is looming without the US presence to keep a lid on the explosive situation.

Iran, on the other hand, has emerged as the main beneficiary of the US withdrawal and is helping its cronies to use Iraq as a strategic card to advance its designs of becoming the dominant regional power. Iran is scrambling to replace the loss of its Syrian ally with Iraq. A Cold War-like scenario is reshaping the GCC and Arab relations with Iran today. This politics of regional brinkmanship is very worrying and destabilising for many players.

During the 32nd GCC summit held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz made a bold call to GCC states to look beyond cooperation and work towards creating a union. It was a clear indication of the leadership role Saudi Arabia has been playing in the GCC and is testimony to the exceptionalism and confidence the GCC states have been showing collectively. It is also a serious attempt by the GCC to get its house in order and rise to the host of challenges in the Gulf and beyond.

The GCC has the means and resources necessary to be a powerhouse and a force to be reckoned with, balancing the emerging Iraq and the adventurous and emboldened Iran and lessen its security dependence on the US.

We are now witnessing a major shift and realignment in Arab and Middle East power politics. The gravity has shifted towards what were once called the peripheries. Actually, the heart of the Arab world has shifted today towards the GCC states, the new leaders of the Arab world at the moment.

The call by King Abdullah is a clear recognition of this new role that is here to stay. Someone has to take the reins and the GCC is up to that challenge.

Professor Abdullah Al Shayji is the chairman of the political science department, Kuwait University. You can follow him on Twitter at Twitter

gulfnews : Realignment in Arab politics

 

[Tshering22]

GCC has reasonable advantage to stay united. While people here welcome the prospects of peace in middle east between GCC and Iran, in real life, power politics comes into play. Arabia being oil rich, is always a desire for all regional powers to control; with Turkey and Iran battling it out right now.

So if GCC becomes a strong union, it will be able to create an influence of its own rather than waiting for someone else' patronizing actions.

In fact, GCC being all rich and prosperous can actually have a single currency system much better than EU.

 

[PERSIAN GOD KING]

Lol yeah some a terrorists organization will make the region more stable.

 

[Al Bhatti]

April 30, 2012

Time for GCC to think big

The move towards a Union will be a quantum leap from its lethargic role as a collective security organisation

Once again the Arabian Gulf is the scene of a brewing cold war between the two sides of this strategic waterway, the lifeline of the industrial economies of both the East and the West. The cold war pits Iran against the six countries that comprise the GCC.

It seems the nations and peoples of this region, who have had more than their fair share of wars, crises and tensions, are doomed to live in a tough neighbourhood. One crisis breeds another, and a war begets another. The region has been bruised and scarred by three major wars over three decades. The irredentist regional players — Iraq under Saddam Hussain and Iran — sought hegemonic designs. They flexed their muscles and menaced their smaller neighbours, who got their act together and formed a loose alliance to boost their power to stave off the two predatory larger neighbours. But the GCC as a regional alliance had limitations as a collective security organisation. The invasion and occupation of Kuwait, the failure of the GCC to deter Saddam —and today's emboldened Iran — and GCC's outsourcing of its security two decades after the liberation of Kuwait speak volumes about the strategic flaws of this most successful and prosperous organisation in the Arab World.

In international relations, a system that lacks an indigenous balance of power will be susceptible to instability and manipulation by the large power(s) in that region. That security dilemma is exacerbated if the large regional powers are controlled by authoritarian regimes that would embark on misadventures with unintended and disastrous consequences without being held accountable.

Saddam's two disastrous decisions were to launch a war against Iran and invade and occupy Kuwait, refusing to withdraw. And he was later "elected" in 2002 by 100 per cent margin! Iran's ayatollahs did the same, fighting a senseless and bloody war for years against Iraq after their forces were able to push back Iraqi forces to the Iraqi side of the border.

Ongoing duel

Today, following the US withdrawal from Iraq there are strategic ties with the GCC states that could push for new security architecture in the Gulf region. Iran is stirring up mischief once again in a new game of brinkmanship, precipitated by provocative Iranian adventures and bolder-than-expected moves by the GCC states — individually in the case of the UAE and from the GCC as a group. The spoiler is Iran with its grandiose and overarching designs, mischievous behaviour and provocative moves. The current situation in the Arabian Gulf resembles a huge chess board. The duel between the two sides has been going on for some time. The Arab Spring and Iran's role in Iraq, Syria, Bahrain, and the fomenting of instability and planting sleeping and spying cells in Kuwait, are alarming signs of its intentions in the region.

Iran has employed double standards in the Arab uprisings — siding with the protesters in Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Yemen but with its allied regime in Syria that is butchering its own people. The GCC states have boycotted the Syrian regime and taken the side of the Syrian people. They bankrupted Iran's dogma of siding with oppressed Muslims everywhere, and disillusioned its millions of die-hard supporters. Finally Iran has lost the propaganda war and along with it, its soft power. The mask has come off. Furthermore, Iran's shenanigans brought the rivalry between the GCC states and Iran to a head.

Iran has lately shown more pragmatism and rationality in dealing with the international community in its last meeting with P5+1 in Istanbul and has been more accommodating in the preparation for the second round of talks scheduled for May 23 in Baghdad, Iran's strategic ally. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki visited Tehran recently. There has been talk of formalising a strategic alliance between the two largely Shiite countries to face off the Sunni Arabs in the GCC states and, may be down the road, Sunni Turkey.

While Iran is being more accommodative towards the West, it is more belligerent, confrontational and provocative towards the GCC states, and the UAE in particular. A provocative and unprecedented visit by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to the UAE's Abu Mousa island, which is under Iranian occupation, was condemned with the UAE recalling its ambassador. The GCC and Arab foreign ministers branded it a provocation, and infringement on the UAE's national territory. Iran upped the ante, sending naval troops and submitting a bill in Parliament proposing the formation of the "Persian Gulf Province" with Abu Mousa as its capital! The final chess move by Iran was the proposed strategic alliance with Iraq.

The GCC states were not to be outdone by Iran. They held an emergency foreign ministerial meeting in Doha, strongly denouncing Iran and sided unequivocally with UAE. The UAE held joint military exercises with France, and GCC is holding an unprecedented joint military exercise in Abu Dhabi dubbed "Islands' Loyalty," as a clarion message to Iran.

Strong rumours are making the rounds in the GCC capitals about the announcement in the next GCC summit of a proposed union between Saudi Arabia and Bahrain as part of King Abdullah's proposal last December during the GCC's annual summit about the need to move the organisation from its 31-year cooperation phase to that of a union. The proposed name is the "GCC Arabian Union".

If that comes to pass, it will be a quantum leap from the GCC's lethargic and dysfunctional role as a collective security organisation and could be the needed shot in the arm to upgrade and move the GCC forward — in order to deal with the host of challenges and threats.

More importantly, it is a strong move on the chess board against Iran. Through that, a new era of Gulf politics is dawning, wherein the GCC states have finally started to think big.


Professor Abdullah Al Shayji is the Chairman of the Political Science Department, Kuwait University. You can follow him on Twitter at Abdullah k AlShayji (@docshayji) on Twitter

gulfnews : Time for GCC to think big

 

[Pakistanisage]

Lol yeah some a terrorists organization will make the region more stable.

It is a good idea for GCC countires to unite and maintain a stable Arabian Peninsula.

At the same time Pakistan , Iran and Turkey should unite to maintain stability and have a NATO style Defence Pact to protect each other from Western Hegemony.