Former Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein on Trump's tariffs: 'I don't think he's wrong here'

[Hamartia Antidote]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/16/for...umps-tariffs-i-dont-think-hes-wrong-here.html

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Twitter

 

[nahtanbob]

do not expect any responses here

 

[patero]

More or less what I have argued, US consumers will carry some of the cost of the new tariffs in the short term but in the long term substitution/alternative sources for most goods will meet demand at a lower price (but a higher equilibrium than originally).

Most mass manufactured goods will have elastic demand (short term) and elastic supply (long term) driving consumers and suppliers to meet at a new equilibrium point. Manufacturers shifting from China will carry the costs of transition (short term).

The long term effects of a 25% tariff are going to be far more profound than a 10% tariff due to the demand and supply curve co-efficiency's. The longer this dispute carries on, the more it will favor the US.

The Trump administration does not appear to be finishing with tariffs. The executive order banning Huawei from US supply chains is the start of another front in this 'trade war'. Export bans preventing technology transfers targeting Huawei and other Chinese electronics manufacturers are likely to follow. There may be bans on firms in other industries in the future although there is no evidence of this yet.

do not expect any responses here

Did you see some of the emotionally driven responses to some of my other posts on the trade war? Instead of trying to counter my position with economic rationale, they resort to childish name calling and making bizarre accusations. I have most of those kind of posters on ignore, some others may make an appearance.

 

[MastanKhan]

More or less what I have argued, US consumers will carry some of the cost of the new tariffs in the short term but in the long term substitution/alternative sources for most goods will meet demand at a lower price (but a higher equilibrium than originally).

Most mass manufactured goods will have elastic demand (short term) and elastic supply (long term) driving consumers and suppliers to meet at a new equilibrium point. Manufacturers shifting from China will carry the costs of transition (short term).

The long term effects of a 25% tariff are going to be far more profound than a 10% tariff due to the demand and supply curve co-efficiency's. The longer this dispute carries on, the more it will favor the US.

The Trump administration does not appear to be finishing with tariffs. The executive order banning Huawei from US supply chains is the start of another front in this 'trade war'. Export bans preventing technology transfers targeting Huawei and other Chinese electronics manufacturers are likely to follow. There may be bans on firms in other industries in the future although there is no evidence of this yet.

Hi,

Right now--the US consumer is absorbing the increased cost---and it is not going to change---.

There are massive shutdowns happening in transportation industry already---. Sales of housing has slowed down as well---.

American automotive industry is seeing major problems---. It does not look good at all.

 

[武成王]

I would see how long can Wall Street hold on their super bubble. Everybody knows the bombing tick is already triggered. Don't cry when your pension and deposit disappear during yet another crisis like 2008 or even worse duplicating the big crash of 1929.

Lloyd Blankfein has a reputation for his sense of financial risk management, I'm sure he clearly know what's ahead of the US stock market.

 

[Yankee-stani]

Hi,

Right now--the US consumer is absorbing the increased cost---and it is not going to change---.

There are massive shutdowns happening in transportation industry already---. Sales of housing has slowed down as well---.

American automotive industry is seeing major problems---. It does not look good at all.

I work part time in Real Estate and my father works as landlord and property manager there was boom of sales between like 2012-2017 in NY and Northeast now its feels a lot like 2007/2008 I am afraid things we go well now u like 2008/2009 you wont see the major bailouts etc to prop the US economy man the US only cares for short term goals and slush economics than real growth

 

[patero]

Hi,

Right now--the US consumer is absorbing the increased cost---and it is not going to change---.

There are massive shutdowns happening in transportation industry already---. Sales of housing has slowed down as well---.

American automotive industry is seeing major problems---. It does not look good at all.

US consumers will absorb some of the costs, but this will change over time, its basic economics on a very large scale. But some of the costs are being carried by China based manufacturers who operate on very low margins.

When I have time I will do my own research into the US housing, transportation and automotive industries to determine any causality with the tariffs. I am unconvinced that there would have been any effect yet considering it will be weeks before goods tariff-ed at the new rate will arrive in the US. Only the markets would respond so quickly, and they appear to have rebounded.

 

[Yankee-stani]

I would see how long can Wall Street hold on their super bubble. Everybody knows the bombing tick is already triggered. Don't cry when your pension and deposit disappear during yet another crisis like 2008 or even worse duplicating the big crash of 1929.

Lloyd Blankfein has a reputation for his sense of financial risk management, I'm sure he clearly know what's ahead of the US stock market.

I think it wont be like 2008 more like 1929 or worse the US is desperate mood the Atlantic Economic system is in decline the Pacific is rising and so the US wants to bring it down with it pure suicidal moves

 

[nahtanbob]

I would see how long can Wall Street hold on their super bubble. Everybody knows the bombing tick is already triggered. Don't cry when your pension and deposit disappear during yet another crisis like 2008 or even worse duplicating the big crash of 1929.

Lloyd Blankfein has a reputation for his sense of financial risk management, I'm sure he clearly know what's ahead of the US stock market.

the big difference is that American leaders can retire without worrying if someone will lynch them

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Hi,

Sales of housing has slowed down as well---.

.

April 23

https://www.advisorperspectives.com...home-sales-up-4-5-in-march-beats-forecast.pdf

New Home Sales Up 4.5% in March, Beats Forecast

 

[MastanKhan]

April 23

https://www.advisorperspectives.com...home-sales-up-4-5-in-march-beats-forecast.pdf

New Home Sales Up 4.5% in March, Beats Forecast

Hi,

Wait and see what is coming---.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Hi,

Wait and see what is coming---.

Well that’s true. June and July are the popular months and if anything bad is about to happen we certainly will know soon.

I actually wouldn’t mind a slowdown. The prices people are paying for new houses around me are insane.

 

[patero]

Hi,

Wait and see what is coming---.

It's not likely to be interest rates affecting the housing market because inflation will probably creep up a bit with oil prices likely to rise this year. The tariffs themselves may not be a factor in US inflation at all, the US inflation rate actually dropped slightly after the first round of tariffs in September.

So if it isn't interest rates what other factors do you predict are going to affect the housing market?

 

[Götterdämmerung]

The same Blankfein who fucked the US taxpayers after the financial collapse in 2008?

When juice piss at an Americunt, they think it's a warm shower.