Forcing the enemy's hand

[CriticalThought]

Recently, the chessboard of international politics has moved strongly against Pakistan. In recent days, Pakistan has been under pressure from multiple fronts. From American demands of 'Do More' to Afghan accusations of internal meddling, to Indian aspersions of terror peddling, the enemies of Pakistan have upped the ante in hopes of gaining some leverage.

In this backdrop, Indian military top brass has been reinforcing the threat of 'Cold Start' through crass and petty statements. Much ink has been spilt on the topic of exploration of sub-nuclear conflict by India as a punitive measure to alleged cross-border infiltration.

It is then sweet irony how Pakistani forces have turned the tables on the enemy through the ongoing escalation on the LoC. Here we analyze the various facets of this move and its impact on the region and beyond.

Firstly, by blatantly escalating tensions, Pakistan has called the bluff on Indian 'Cold Start'. Rather than waiting for India to find excuse in some staged act of terrorism, Pakistan has created the exact conditions in which the much hyped 'Cold Start' should logically come into play. With Indian media covering the situation honestly, questions shall be raised by Indian public and scholars alike if a 'befitting response' is not given. Pakistan will be looking for no less than a public plea of de-escalation, thus establishing as fact the incompetence and impotence of Indian military prowess.

Secondly, it forces America to reevaluate the extent and depth of its relationship with India. If India chooses to escalate the situation further, and the tensions turn into all out war, the first casualty would be the American supplies to Afghanistan. Pakistan would have a practical reason to restrict all American presence, because they cannot be trusted to not supply their friend and ally with recon and intelligence.

Thirdly, by involving itself in a well calculated escalation with India, Pakistan immediately has a reason for not doing more in Afghanistan. American diplomats demanding action will be confronted with the counter demand of playing mediator in ongoing situation.

There remains a credible risk that India, Afghanistan, and America will unite for a decisive strike against Pakistan. But it is essential to understand that this risk has not been created, or even exacerbated by current posturing. As the trilateral attack in UN attests, these nations have already formed a coalition that threatens the very existence of Pakistan. As such, Pakistan is merely forcing the enemy's hand. Rather than suffer a disgraceful and systematic tarnishing of image through an orchestrated campaign of vitriol and fabrication, it puts the enemy in a position where escalation will be akin to bluster and hubris.

Historically, every American campaign in recent history has been sanctifued through UNSC resolutions. In this, America will find two permanent members who solidly back Pakistan's stance. This puts a damper on the designs of the 'Troika of Willing'. That said, Pakistan still needs to safeguard its vested interests in the UN General Assembly. It is crucial that Pakistan's dignity and image is protected from false narrative. Fortunately for Pakistan, the sub-continent perceives calls of UN intervention as weakness. Thus, even the normal knave tactics employed by Indians will only serve to puncture their inflated ego.

Finally, it is interesting to note that both Pakistan and Turkey have simultaneously started a new era of assertiveness in their respective regions. Is this mere happenstance or careful design? Only time will tell.

 

[randomradio]

Firstly, by blatantly escalating tensions, Pakistan has called the bluff on Indian 'Cold Start'.

Cold Start isn't a bluff. Haven't you been following the restructuring going on within the IA? We no longer have any Holding Corps. I bet even the word "Pivot Corps" has changed.

Even the army exercises have been about demonstrating Cold Start.

The biggest clue: The CoAS has publicly announced the existence of Cold Start.

https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/...urgical-strikes-indian-army-985527-2017-01-04
Is the Cold Start doctrine-instituted after Operation Parakram in 2001-still an option in response to attacks like the one on Parliament in 2001 or 26/11 in Mumbai?

The Cold Start doctrine exists for conventional military operations. Whether we have to conduct conventional operations for such strikes is a decision well-thought through, involving the government and the Cabinet Committee on Security.

https://thewire.in/101586/cold-start-pakistan-doctrine/
Army chief, General Bipin Rawat, who this month became the first senior official to publicly confirm the existence of India’s so-called Cold Start doctrine, explained on Friday why he acknowledged this controversial term publicly.

Rawat also clarified that publicly acknowledging Cold Start was a signal to the army to be prepared for that eventuality. “The other reason for coming out with this was, to communicate to the rank and file and field commanders the kind of preparations they have to carry out for future combat. That is the messaging that was meant to that statement that I made,” said Rawat.

Rather than waiting for India to find excuse in some staged act of terrorism, Pakistan has created the exact conditions in which the much hyped 'Cold Start' should logically come into play.

Pakistan has done nothing for war to come into play after Mumbai.

 

[insight-out]

Recently, the chessboard of international politics has moved strongly against Pakistan. In recent days, Pakistan has been under pressure from multiple fronts. From American demands of 'Do More' to Afghan accusations of internal meddling, to Indian aspersions of terror peddling, the enemies of Pakistan have upped the ante in hopes of gaining some leverage.

In this backdrop, Indian military top brass has been reinforcing the threat of 'Cold Start' through crass and petty statements. Much ink has been spilt on the topic of exploration of sub-nuclear conflict by India as a punitive measure to alleged cross-border infiltration.

It is then sweet irony how Pakistani forces have turned the tables on the enemy through the ongoing escalation on the LoC. Here we analyze the various facets of this move and its impact on the region and beyond.

Firstly, by blatantly escalating tensions, Pakistan has called the bluff on Indian 'Cold Start'. Rather than waiting for India to find excuse in some staged act of terrorism, Pakistan has created the exact conditions in which the much hyped 'Cold Start' should logically come into play. With Indian media covering the situation honestly, questions shall be raised by Indian public and scholars alike if a 'befitting response' is not given. Pakistan will be looking for no less than a public plea of de-escalation, thus establishing as fact the incompetence and impotence of Indian military prowess.

Secondly, it forces America to reevaluate the extent and depth of its relationship with India. If India chooses to escalate the situation further, and the tensions turn into all out war, the first casualty would be the American supplies to Afghanistan. Pakistan would have a practical reason to restrict all American presence, because they cannot be trusted to not supply their friend and ally with recon and intelligence.

Thirdly, by involving itself in a well calculated escalation with India, Pakistan immediately has a reason for not doing more in Afghanistan. American diplomats demanding action will be confronted with the counter demand of playing mediator in ongoing situation.

There remains a credible risk that India, Afghanistan, and America will unite for a decisive strike against Pakistan. But it is essential to understand that this risk has not been created, or even exacerbated by current posturing. As the trilateral attack in UN attests, these nations have already formed a coalition that threatens the very existence of Pakistan. As such, Pakistan is merely forcing the enemy's hand. Rather than suffer a disgraceful and systematic tarnishing of image through an orchestrated campaign of vitriol and fabrication, it puts the enemy in a position where escalation will be akin to bluster and hubris.

Historically, every American campaign in recent history has been sanctifued through UNSC resolutions. In this, America will find two permanent members who solidly back Pakistan's stance. This puts a damper on the designs of the 'Troika of Willing'. That said, Pakistan still needs to safeguard its vested interests in the UN General Assembly. It is crucial that Pakistan's dignity and image is protected from false narrative. Fortunately for Pakistan, the sub-continent perceives calls of UN intervention as weakness. Thus, even the normal knave tactics employed by Indians will only serve to puncture their inflated ego.

Finally, it is interesting to note that both Pakistan and Turkey have simultaneously started a new era of assertiveness in their respective regions. Is this mere happenstance or careful design? Only time will tell.

Is this your analysis?

Who is escalating the situation? The Indians will have us believe that Pakistan is the aggressor. Of course, the Pakistanis insist they are only retaliating. Your assertion runs counter to the Pakistani narrative.

Cold Start isn't a bluff.

Cold Start itself may not be a bluff, but the threshold for its deployment certainly is, akin to Pakistan's nuclear deterrent.

 

[randomradio]

Cold Start itself may not be a bluff, but the threshold for its deployment certainly is, akin to Pakistan's nuclear deterrent.

By saying "threshold", what are you referring to? Are you saying Cold Start will not always be used?

If a war happens, Cold Start is how the war will start. The idea is to push as many as 10 IBGs into Pakistan in 48 hours. Some will fail, some will succeed. Once that's done, the main strike corps will push into Pakistan by taking advantage of the momentum of the successful IBGs. So the IA is actually starting the war before mobilising. In fact, because of the small window, you can say that the air force would have already begun operations before war is officially declared, gaining a lot of surprise.

Since the air operations could begin at 0 hour and ground offensive begins in 48 hours, there is no room for international pressure to be applied on India.

I don't see a threshold for initiating Cold Start. It's simply the new norm.

 

[Thanatos]

Recently, the chessboard of international politics has moved strongly against Pakistan. In recent days, Pakistan has been under pressure from multiple fronts. From American demands of 'Do More' to Afghan accusations of internal meddling, to Indian aspersions of terror peddling, the enemies of Pakistan have upped the ante in hopes of gaining some leverage.

In this backdrop, Indian military top brass has been reinforcing the threat of 'Cold Start' through crass and petty statements. Much ink has been spilt on the topic of exploration of sub-nuclear conflict by India as a punitive measure to alleged cross-border infiltration.

It is then sweet irony how Pakistani forces have turned the tables on the enemy through the ongoing escalation on the LoC. Here we analyze the various facets of this move and its impact on the region and beyond.

Firstly, by blatantly escalating tensions, Pakistan has called the bluff on Indian 'Cold Start'. Rather than waiting for India to find excuse in some staged act of terrorism, Pakistan has created the exact conditions in which the much hyped 'Cold Start' should logically come into play. With Indian media covering the situation honestly, questions shall be raised by Indian public and scholars alike if a 'befitting response' is not given. Pakistan will be looking for no less than a public plea of de-escalation, thus establishing as fact the incompetence and impotence of Indian military prowess.

Secondly, it forces America to reevaluate the extent and depth of its relationship with India. If India chooses to escalate the situation further, and the tensions turn into all out war, the first casualty would be the American supplies to Afghanistan. Pakistan would have a practical reason to restrict all American presence, because they cannot be trusted to not supply their friend and ally with recon and intelligence.

Thirdly, by involving itself in a well calculated escalation with India, Pakistan immediately has a reason for not doing more in Afghanistan. American diplomats demanding action will be confronted with the counter demand of playing mediator in ongoing situation.

There remains a credible risk that India, Afghanistan, and America will unite for a decisive strike against Pakistan. But it is essential to understand that this risk has not been created, or even exacerbated by current posturing. As the trilateral attack in UN attests, these nations have already formed a coalition that threatens the very existence of Pakistan. As such, Pakistan is merely forcing the enemy's hand. Rather than suffer a disgraceful and systematic tarnishing of image through an orchestrated campaign of vitriol and fabrication, it puts the enemy in a position where escalation will be akin to bluster and hubris.

Historically, every American campaign in recent history has been sanctifued through UNSC resolutions. In this, America will find two permanent members who solidly back Pakistan's stance. This puts a damper on the designs of the 'Troika of Willing'. That said, Pakistan still needs to safeguard its vested interests in the UN General Assembly. It is crucial that Pakistan's dignity and image is protected from false narrative. Fortunately for Pakistan, the sub-continent perceives calls of UN intervention as weakness. Thus, even the normal knave tactics employed by Indians will only serve to puncture their inflated ego.

Finally, it is interesting to note that both Pakistan and Turkey have simultaneously started a new era of assertiveness in their respective regions. Is this mere happenstance or careful design? Only time will tell.

Very good analysis. Pakistan has responded extremely well to the threats posed. I have always seen indian policy in the region as reactive rather than proactive. I also firmly believe india in no way wants a full fledged war as that would lead to chaos in india , which india simply cant afford. Things will continue the same, will get heat up again near 2019 elections in india, as modi has failed india at several aspects so the only way for him to compete would be on the basis of anti Pakistan stance.

By saying "threshold", what are you referring to? Are you saying Cold Start will not always be used?

If a war happens, Cold Start is how the war will start. The idea is to push as many as 10 IBGs into Pakistan in 48 hours. Some will fail, some will succeed. Once that's done, the main strike corps will push into Pakistan by taking advantage of the momentum of the successful IBGs. So the IA is actually starting the war before mobilising. In fact, because of the small window, you can say that the air force would have already begun operations before war is officially declared, gaining a lot of surprise.

Since the air operations could begin at 0 hour and ground offensive begins in 48 hours, there is no room for international pressure to be applied on India.

I don't see a threshold for initiating Cold Start. It's simply the new norm.

Looks like a bollywood movie plot , that would miserably fail even in the cinema. This is just outdated idea.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

Quite a coincidence, in the case of both Turkey and Pak, the Pentagon has found an opportunity to test the tenacity of the newly found "our boys"....

 

[Mrc]

lashing out at LOC shows that they are not really worried about threats from west and US militarily to degree that they feel comfortable escalating with India..... although hit and run ops remain possible in west.... run might be trickier than in the past...

I think message is given where it was intended......to both east and west

 

[Sharpshooter12]

It is not that we have not responded to Indian firing before but yes this is a bit different.

Just after Modi came into power there was a lot of shelling especially across Working boundary, and its ferocity and type of weaponry used took us by surprise. I remember a senior Ranger official calling it unprecedented and almost a mini-war. This time its the Indians who look surprised by our response along the LOC and WB. And it is good.

Reality is our forces are quite stretched with a massive effort on our part in securing our western border. The enemy knows it, but if we let their provocations go unanswered this will only embolden them to try something more adventurous.

 

[Arsalan 345]

Cold start is a reality.as a Pakistani,I am absolutely sure that this doctrine is what India wants against pakistan.there is a chance that Indian army corps( I don't know which battalion is responsible to attack on Pakistan using cold start) will rapidly infiltrate within 1 to 3 hours and provide passage to indian strike corps.since 1 or 3 hours will not put any pressure over India,it will continue to infiltrate but this theory has a major drawback.even if India managed to hold small amount of land inside Pakistan within 3 hours and with support of iaf,they will have to face nasr between these 1 to 3 hours time.this is crucial.either it will disintegrate indian corps holding Pakistani territory or it will open multiple fronts from Sindh to Kashmir.here Pakistan will rain cruise missiles on indian positions deep inside indian territory but time frame will be very small.basically both countries have their own cold start plans.thing is we know India and their intentions and I am sure India will attack in the near future but they also know the danger from our side.probably before starting infiltration using cold start,they will try to struck our Sam batteries using iaf but they can't manage to strike all nasr missiles when Indian army infiltrates.it requires excellent intelligence to kill all nasr missiles which is practically impossible but Pakistani attack on indian corps using nasr is a reality and India knows that.we also have a backup plan as well.we learned from 65 war that opening multiple fronts will help anybody so we possibly open multiple fronts.pakistani cold start is basically raining of cruise missiles on indian cities near loc.after rain,we start our own infiltration into indian cities and it will create a conventional war.we might turn cold start into conventional start.i am completely agree with our indian friends here that cold start is a reality.also we must look at navies of both countries.pakistan now suddenly wants more ships more submarines.pakistan knows that if nasr fails or if India destroyed all nasr missiles( practically impossible) than they must counter India.third way of attacking India are submarines with nuclear warheads.similarly India will first try to kill our Subs and we can see more scorpene class near Karachi coast but our strategy is to send all our submarines with nuclear warheads towards indian ocean with unknown positions.at the end of the day,even if India manages to destroy Pakistan, Pakistan might destroy remaining indian cities with the help of submarines.so both countries will die.concept of ending Pakistan after losing half India is wrong.our strategy in this regard is very clear.

 

[Mehmood usmani]

But in end of the war there will be a big bomb