Food shortages can cause civil unrest - I
ARTICLE (April 16 2008): Food prices have gone up by about 50 percent on an average, around the world. For the poorer nations - particularly in Asia, Africa and South America - the spectre of famine haunts the economic planners. In the context of Pakistan, the situation is worsening day by day, and the spate of ugly scenes at utility stores, increase in the number of suicides due to poverty reported everyday, portend worse to come.
Those who have lived through the days of World War II, will recall the disastrous Bengal famine, where hundreds of thousands died of starvation. Food shortages have already caused some incidents of law and order in various parts of Asia including Pakistan.
What are the causes of the present global high prices of food and other commodities? In simple words, it is the old cliché of supply and demand. Of course, the world population is growing and consumption outpaces production. Climate change, and particularly drought and water shortages are causing crop failures.
Rising oil prices and growing awareness about environment-friendly fuel have forced diversion of major crops for bio-fuels. The economic prosperity of a few developing countries has led to ostentatious food consumption by a few people, depriving a vast number of others of even one square meal a day. The growing poverty levels visible every where belie statisticians' tall claims of eliminating it.
Even in affluent societies of the developed world, buffer stocks of food reserves are running low because of several crop failures and a fear of shortages is leading to speculative buying and driving prices up to unprecedented levels.
Phenomenal increase in the price of each bushel of wheat over the past few months at Chicago's main commodities market is a case in point. Such speculations drive prices of other commodities up also, and thus a vicious circle has been formed. Prices of gold, oil and food items like wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, milk and oilseeds are manifestations of this trend.
For populous but poor countries, having a very low per capita income, and with wheat or rice their main staple, every day is a long struggle of survival. Malnutrition or starvation causes loss of productivity, compounding the problem and hastening fatality. Health problems put a further strain on the hapless populations' meagre resources, leading to further social and humanitarian crises.
Coming back to Pakistan, the new administration has to cope with a plethora of problems, and their order of priorities, as displayed so far, does not seem to include rising prices or food shortages, among the top.
If one is to believe the noises coming from Washington D.C., following parleys of our ministerial delegation with the World Bank, IFC and others, the situation is likely to become more acute with withdrawal of subsidies on food and oil products.
With galloping inflation, static or dwindling income, and fall in purchasing power of the Pak Rupee, the country is headed towards a catastrophe of immense proportions, and to neglect it can only mean sudden death (or even worse, a lingering draining out of life).
Granted, the new incumbents in the government are not to be blamed for their inherited 'Pandora's box' of issues, but people certainly look up to them for lending sympathetic ears, instead of following the dictates of the wizards of Washington. As a pragmatic approach to the problem, an immediate attention to revolutionise the farming sector should be a top priority to ensure a sustained economic and general wellbeing of the masses.
[To be continued]
Business Recorder [Pakistan's First Financial Daily]
