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Far East goes ballistic
By HIDEAKI KANEDA
North Koreaââ¬â¢s long-range missile tests only confirm the existence of an arms race across the region. After the financial crisis of 1997, most South East Asian countries began modernising their armed forces. So far, most have done so without compromising their autonomy in security matters. But, with Chinaââ¬â¢s military build-up causing nervousness everywhere and North Korea a source of insecurity, many governments in the region are starting to work with outside powers.
Indonesiaââ¬â¢s president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has perhaps been the most assertive. Yudhoyono will meet Russian president Vladimir Putin in Moscow to discuss buying Russians newest fighter jets. Indonesia is seeking to form an airdefence squadron of 12 jets, with eight Russian fighters to complement the two Russian Su-27SKs and Su-30MKMs that it has already bought.
Singapore has apparently opted to purchase 12 new F-15SG fighter aircraft from the US. Thailandââ¬â¢s prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, met Putin late last year and tentatively agreed to purchase 12 Su-30MKMs. Malaysia has agreed to buy 18 Su-30MKMs over the next two years, while Vietnam has purchased 36 Su-27SKs, 12 of which are already in service.
It seems that Russian fighter-attack aircraft are the regionââ¬â¢s weapon of choice at the moment. Russiaââ¬â¢s growing slice of the local arms market worries the US. Last November, the US lifted its six-year embargo on military sales to Indonesia, imposed in 1999 in response to human rights abuses in East Timor. Indonesia immediately expressed its intention to purchase C-130 transport aircraft, as well as fast patrol boats to conduct anti-terrorism and antipiracy measures.
Indonesia is also trying to align itself with Asiaââ¬â¢s rising power, China. As a result of these improved relations, Indonesia has received Chinese shortrange missile technology.
The possibility that South East Asian governments might begin to play America and China against each other is one of the concerns that animates the latest US quadrennial defence review. The US will try to build closer ties with Indonesia through greater military cooperation, because Indonesia borders the regionââ¬â¢s key sea lines of communications.
Indonesia will become involved in the tug of war between the US and China for influence over the Malacca Strait. China is attempting to use economic and military aid as leverage to improve relations even with countries with which it has had military confrontations in the past, most prominently Vietnam and the Philippines.
India, too, is now joining the military build-up. It has actively led regional multilateral joint exercises, such as the naval joint exercise that Indiaââ¬â¢s navy hosted in the Andaman Sea earlier this year. Nine Asian-Pacific countries took part, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand.
Both India and China are each seeking greater influence over Myanmar. After Myanmar signed an agreement with China in 2005 to supply natural gas, India responded by cutting its own gas deal with Myanmar. South Korea has also joined the scramble. President Roh Moo-hyun visited Malaysia to discuss exporting defence materials worth $2.3 billion, including training aircraft, destroyers, and armed vehicles. In January 2006, Korean defence minister Yoon agreed with the Philippines to deliver two used patrol boats.
In this crowded power play, only Japan is left out, choosing for the most part to remain aloof and cultivate its relations with the US, which will supply anti-missile technology to counter the North Korean threat. But, despite deep historical animosity over World War II, there are increasing calls in the region for Japan to expand its influence to counterbalance China. Japan is not ready for this.
In the 1960s, Japan initiated a serious dialogue with regional players, aiming to build stronger relations with countries that it had once conquered and occupied. Those efforts formed the foundation of Japanââ¬â¢s national power. But now Japanââ¬â¢s political and economic influence in South East Asia is gradually declining. The time when Japan could remain on the sidelines is over.
The writer is former vice admiral of Japanââ¬â¢s defence forces.
(Copyright: Project Syndicate)
By HIDEAKI KANEDA
North Koreaââ¬â¢s long-range missile tests only confirm the existence of an arms race across the region. After the financial crisis of 1997, most South East Asian countries began modernising their armed forces. So far, most have done so without compromising their autonomy in security matters. But, with Chinaââ¬â¢s military build-up causing nervousness everywhere and North Korea a source of insecurity, many governments in the region are starting to work with outside powers.
Indonesiaââ¬â¢s president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has perhaps been the most assertive. Yudhoyono will meet Russian president Vladimir Putin in Moscow to discuss buying Russians newest fighter jets. Indonesia is seeking to form an airdefence squadron of 12 jets, with eight Russian fighters to complement the two Russian Su-27SKs and Su-30MKMs that it has already bought.
Singapore has apparently opted to purchase 12 new F-15SG fighter aircraft from the US. Thailandââ¬â¢s prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, met Putin late last year and tentatively agreed to purchase 12 Su-30MKMs. Malaysia has agreed to buy 18 Su-30MKMs over the next two years, while Vietnam has purchased 36 Su-27SKs, 12 of which are already in service.
It seems that Russian fighter-attack aircraft are the regionââ¬â¢s weapon of choice at the moment. Russiaââ¬â¢s growing slice of the local arms market worries the US. Last November, the US lifted its six-year embargo on military sales to Indonesia, imposed in 1999 in response to human rights abuses in East Timor. Indonesia immediately expressed its intention to purchase C-130 transport aircraft, as well as fast patrol boats to conduct anti-terrorism and antipiracy measures.
Indonesia is also trying to align itself with Asiaââ¬â¢s rising power, China. As a result of these improved relations, Indonesia has received Chinese shortrange missile technology.
The possibility that South East Asian governments might begin to play America and China against each other is one of the concerns that animates the latest US quadrennial defence review. The US will try to build closer ties with Indonesia through greater military cooperation, because Indonesia borders the regionââ¬â¢s key sea lines of communications.
Indonesia will become involved in the tug of war between the US and China for influence over the Malacca Strait. China is attempting to use economic and military aid as leverage to improve relations even with countries with which it has had military confrontations in the past, most prominently Vietnam and the Philippines.
India, too, is now joining the military build-up. It has actively led regional multilateral joint exercises, such as the naval joint exercise that Indiaââ¬â¢s navy hosted in the Andaman Sea earlier this year. Nine Asian-Pacific countries took part, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand.
Both India and China are each seeking greater influence over Myanmar. After Myanmar signed an agreement with China in 2005 to supply natural gas, India responded by cutting its own gas deal with Myanmar. South Korea has also joined the scramble. President Roh Moo-hyun visited Malaysia to discuss exporting defence materials worth $2.3 billion, including training aircraft, destroyers, and armed vehicles. In January 2006, Korean defence minister Yoon agreed with the Philippines to deliver two used patrol boats.
In this crowded power play, only Japan is left out, choosing for the most part to remain aloof and cultivate its relations with the US, which will supply anti-missile technology to counter the North Korean threat. But, despite deep historical animosity over World War II, there are increasing calls in the region for Japan to expand its influence to counterbalance China. Japan is not ready for this.
In the 1960s, Japan initiated a serious dialogue with regional players, aiming to build stronger relations with countries that it had once conquered and occupied. Those efforts formed the foundation of Japanââ¬â¢s national power. But now Japanââ¬â¢s political and economic influence in South East Asia is gradually declining. The time when Japan could remain on the sidelines is over.
The writer is former vice admiral of Japanââ¬â¢s defence forces.
(Copyright: Project Syndicate)
