Featured Exports fall but trade balance improves

The Accountant · Sep 7, 2020

volatile said:
Imagine a picture where Exports are not grown ,Imports have been curtailed .LSM - .GDP - ,Infaltion all time high .By the way if current account is Positive (for now) why Dollar keeps inching up ?

LSM is down all over the world, Infact Pakistan is better off in comparison to world. Secondly LSM revival will take atleast 4 to 5 years more to show effect however, increase in cement sector real production, revival of textile (before corona) and massive investments in auto sector shows an increasing trend.

In first year of PTI, GDP growth was low mainly to stablize current account and budget deficit out of which current account is in control now. In second year negative GDP is due to Corona (still better than most of the world). TO understand the GDP growth you need to understand why GDP was higher previously. GDP was high on the back of massive current account and budget deficits. you take loans and provide subsidize goods to the masses they will be very happy. But PMLN never told them the goods they are getting are backed by massive loans and massive deficitss. So in laymen terms PTI stop providing subsidized goods, make imports expensive and as a result masses are angry as they are in trouble. However, only person with knowledge of finance knows that PMLN policy was destructive and was leading towards disaster. Did you ever realize why all the assets and sons of PMLN are living abroad. They already knew that the way they are running the country it cannot survive long so they keep their own wealth outside of Pakistan. They live in Pakistan just to earn money which they receive in the form of kick backs outside Pakistan in their real country of residence i.e. UK.

Inflation is all time high as due to artificially low exchange rates, we were subsidizng imports and they were cheaper. Now the imports are getting to their actual prices local products are getting cheaper than imports but still higher than previously subsidized imports. Furthermore, imported goods are now expensive so those without any substitute like petrol will result in increase in prices. This is a one time scenario due to stabilization policy and correction measures taken for current account deficit and budget deficit and soon prices will start normalizing.

Dollars keep on inching because we have a massive loan and lesser exports. Our exports are just 25 billion dollars v/s eternal loan of around 100 billion. Furthermore, money laundering is also big issue due to which most of the dollars coming to country get transferred outside by illegal channels. You should ask this question from political parties who are opposing approval of FATF money laundering related laws and using it as a bargaining chip for amendment in NAB laws. Why current government efforts to stop money laundering are being opposed by opposition whereas it is a dire need of the day?

volatile · Sep 7, 2020

The Accountant said:
LSM is down all over the world, Infact Pakistan is better off in comparison to world. Secondly LSM revival will take atleast 4 to 5 years more to show effect however, increase in cement sector real production, revival of textile (before corona) and massive investments in auto sector shows an increasing trend.

In first year of PTI, GDP growth was low mainly to stablize current account and budget deficit out of which current account is in control now. In second year negative GDP is due to Corona (still better than most of the world). TO understand the GDP growth you need to understand why GDP was higher previously. GDP was high on the back of massive current account and budget deficits. you take loans and provide subsidize goods to the masses they will be very happy. But PMLN never told them the goods they are getting are backed by massive loans and massive deficitss. So in laymen terms PTI stop providing subsidized goods, make imports expensive and as a result masses are angry as they are in trouble. However, only person with knowledge of finance knows that PMLN policy was destructive and was leading towards disaster. Did you ever realize why all the assets and sons of PMLN are living abroad. They already knew that the way they are running the country it cannot survive long so they keep their own wealth outside of Pakistan. They live in Pakistan just to earn money which they receive in the form of kick backs outside Pakistan in their real country of residence i.e. UK.

Inflation is all time high as due to artificially low exchange rates, we were subsidizng imports and they were cheaper. Now the imports are getting to their actual prices local products are getting cheaper than imports but still higher than previously subsidized imports. Furthermore, imported goods are now expensive so those without any substitute like petrol will result in increase in prices. This is a one time scenario due to stabilization policy and correction measures taken for current account deficit and budget deficit and soon prices will start normalizing.

Dollars keep on inching because we have a massive loan and lesser exports. Our exports are just 25 billion dollars v/s eternal loan of around 100 billion. Furthermore, money laundering is also big issue due to which most of the dollars coming to country get transferred outside by illegal channels. You should ask this question from political parties who are opposing approval of FATF money laundering related laws and using it as a bargaining chip for amendment in NAB laws. Why current government efforts to stop money laundering are being opposed by opposition whereas it is a dire need of the day?

No answer to these questions. Even worst PPP Govt performed better then PTI in economics in 2 years .Rest i have shared alternates to theory of artifical rupee so wont go there now .But since this is used an excuse even current financial pundict says shoudlnt be more than 130 Rs/$

The Accountant · Sep 7, 2020

volatile said:
No answer to these questions. Even worst PPP Govt performed better then PTI in economics in 2 years .Rest i have shared alternates to theory of artifical rupee so wont go there now .But since this is used an excuse even current financial pundict says shoudlnt be more than 130 Rs/$

no answer? Are you for real. Stop spreading lies.

What are your qualifications to give your theory on artificial exchange rate except for blind PMLN supporter? Are you economic expert? financial expert? or what? First give your qualifications.

volatile · Sep 7, 2020

The Accountant said:
no answer? Are you for real. Stop spreading lies.

What are your qualifications to give your theory on artificial exchange rate except for blind PMLN supporter? Are you economic expert? financial expert? or what? First give your qualifications.

Thanks for making my point .At least Im not paid one .Rest i dont need to share my qualifications with you or any one but you claim to know every thing .

The Accountant · Sep 7, 2020

volatile said:
Thanks for making my point .At least Im not paid one .Rest i dont need to share my qualifications with you or any one but you claim to know every thing .

Because you don't have any qualification other than copy pasting newspaper articles.

But most surprising for me is openly lying in front of all. Despite giving detailed answer of all the points raised you conveniently lied and posted QUOTE" No answer to these questions. "QUOTE

Anyways, people who have knowledge and understanding of the matters can easily judge.

volatile · Sep 7, 2020

The Accountant said:
Because you don't have any qualification other than copy pasting newspaper articles.

But most surprising for me is openly lying in front of all. Despite giving detailed answer of all the points raised you conveniently lied and posted QUOTE" No answer to these questions. "QUOTE

Anyways, people who have knowledge and understanding of the matters can easily judge.

Sure let the people judge why you are making judgment for others ? Also history is some thing biggest judge of all .So be patient and try to agree to disagree .By the way this form is meant for this .Not like show me this or that .Kon bure baap ki aulaad hai .

Ahmet Pasha · Sep 7, 2020

Why no one in Pakistan is interested in trying to make something like the Silicon Valley in Pakistan somewhere?

The Accountant · Sep 7, 2020

volatile said:
Sure let the people judge why you are making judgment for others ? Also history is some thing biggest judge of all .So be patient and try to agree to disagree .By the way this form is meant for this .Not like show me this or that .Kon bure baap ki aulaad hai .

bury baap, man stop playing victim card.

man you tried to present a theory and I asked for credentials to validate your capabilities to give a theory. Its highly professional and fair. Otherwise you have to provide source of your theory.

I cannot accept a medical prescription from an engineer no matter how qualified or successful he is as an engineer. Or should I?

Furthermore, I am not judging at all. I never said you are good or bad. I said you PMLN supporter based on facts. I call the short of lies based on facts and I provided the reasoning and proof as well. Where is the judgement. Did I said anything which is not subjective or not written here ?

The Accountant · Sep 7, 2020

Ahmet Pasha said:
Why no one in Pakistan is interested in trying to make something like the Silicon Valley in Pakistan somewhere?

Because the people with the capabilities are short of fund and people with the fund do not have capability / vision.

Ahmet Pasha · Sep 7, 2020

Is it a young vs old kinda scenario??

Jews are leveraging their billionaires, universities and military intelligence organizations to develop their own weaponized Silicon Valley in Israel which is extremely cutting edge.

The Accountant said:
Because the people with the capabilities are short of fund and people with the fund do not have capability / vision.

The Accountant · Sep 7, 2020

Ahmet Pasha said:
Is it a young vs old kinda scenario??

Jews are leveraging their billionaires, universities and military intelligence organizations to develop their own weaponized Silicon Valley in Israel which is extremely cutting edge.

Agreed, I myself is wondering why we no one is doing this. Anyways, as I am finance background I can comment on financial part only.

muhammadhafeezmalik · Sep 7, 2020

ziaulislam said:
month to month dat ais meaningless
if ports close for even a day shipement are delayed
second exports arent going to go up in corona virus environment
lastly why we need to add more ports and linkages.

i believe gawadar port is too far, something in between was needed to offload karachi

HaMoTZeMaS said:
Please before copy pasting all the crap, give a moment of your thoughts and logics.
It will help us save our time. Gracious

In the last two years of PMLN negative CAB was ballooned because we have to import heavy machinery of power , cement , steel, sugar, textile and other raw materiel for CPEC. Now as the major expansions has done so imports are down but PTI government has not presented any export policy in the last two years so we could not capitalized on the work done by the previous government, else the government imposed 17% sales tax on ZR export sector. Knowing fully well how difficult it is to get back sales tax refunds from the government the industry despaired. The government promised that it will refund tax in 72 hours, but it has not kept its promise. Government announced that it will refund 200b under COVID package but again it it didn't. Now ST refund also ballooned to over 700b. Import duty on raw material also contributed in reduction of exports.

Patriot forever · Sep 7, 2020

muhammadhafeezmalik said:
In the last two years of PMLN negative CAB was ballooned because we have to import heavy machinery of power , cement , steel, sugar, textile and other raw materiel for CPEC. Now as the major expansions has done so imports are down but PTI government has not presented any export policy in the last two years so we could not capitalized on the work done by the previous government, else the government imposed 17% sales tax on ZR export sector. Knowing fully well how difficult it is to get back sales tax refunds from the government the industry despaired. The government promised that it will refund tax in 72 hours, but it has not kept its promise. Government announced that it will refund 200b under COVID package but again it it didn't. Now ST refund also ballooned to over 700b. Import duty on raw material also contributed in reduction of exports.

Has CPEC stopped now? Do you even know how many power projects are under construction? Please do not post on hearsay, especially the illogical stuff Plmn media cell invented to some what dignify their horrendous performance.

Ever wonder how so much refunds were accumulated?

Pakistan Space Agency · Sep 7, 2020

Indos said:
Bro, I think for Turkey your data is very wrong.

Revaluation of Turkish Lira

In 2005, Turkey removed 6 zeros so 1 million Turkish Lira was now shown as 1 Lira but it's value was still 1 million.

muhammadhafeezmalik · Sep 7, 2020

Patriot forever said:
Has CPEC stopped now? Do you even know how many power projects are under construction? Please do not post on hearsay, especially the illogical stuff Plmn media cell invented to some what dignify their horrendous performance.

Ever wonder how so much refunds were accumulated?View attachment 667505

Major work has done, which includes power infrastructure and road network, now SEZs are to be established and so far the progress is very slow.