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Experts warn U.S. covid-19 deaths could more than double by year’s end
By Joel Achenbach and William Wan
September 4, 2020 at 9:58 p.m. GMT+8
The global death toll from the coronavirus pandemic could triple by year’s end, with an additional 1.9 million deaths, while a fall wave of infections could drive fatalities in the United States to 410,000, according to a new forecast from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.
This new estimate reinforces warnings by many experts that cooler, less humid weather and increased time spent indoors, could lead to a surge in viral transmission this fall and winter — something typically seen with other respiratory viruses.
The institute’s forecasts were influential earlier in the pandemic in guiding policies developed by the White House coronavirus task force, but they have been criticized by some experts for making projections further into the future than can be done reliably.
The U.S. death toll from covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, now stands at 183,000, according to health data analyzed by The Washington Post. The IHME model projects that under the most likely scenario, 410,451 people in the U.S. will have died by Jan. 1. The best case scenario is 288,381 deaths, and worst-case is 620,029.
Exactly how the fall and winter play out depends heavily on how people choose to behave in terms of following public health protocols like social distancing, as well as on government policies, researchers at IHME and elsewhere have noted.
“We are facing the prospect of a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia, and the United States,” Christopher Murray, director of IHME, said in a statement. “But the science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: Mask-wearing, social distancing, and limits to social gatherings are vital to helping prevent transmission of the virus.”
With rigid adherence to social distancing and mask-wearing, 770,000 lives could be saved globally by year’s end, IHME projected.
In recent weeks, the daily number of U.S. infections and deaths have gradually slowed, but experts warn that could all change this fall and winter for several reasons. There is evidence that colder, dryer temperatures with less sunlight may allow the virus to stay viable longer and help its transmission.
One key insight in recent months is that the virus is much harder to transmit outdoors, but as that temperature drops, people will spend more time indoors. Schools and universities have also reopened in some areas, which could speed transmission. Public health leaders also worry that people may ease or give up on social distancing from fatigue or lack of vigilance.
Few models forecast as far into the future as the IHME does. Many models do not project further than four to six weeks ahead.
“Beyond that, it’s all conjecture and guesswork because there are so many factors we just can’t predict and factors about transmission that truthfully scientists don’t understand very well yet,” said Jeffrey Shaman, an infectious-disease expert who leads the modeling team at Columbia University. “What happens the next few months really depends on what we do as a society the next few weeks.”
One of the most useful tools for public health officials and others has been an “ensemble model” — an aggregation of several of the country’s leading models to make a more reliable forecast. One of the most heavily used ensemble models — assembled by Nicholas Reich, a biostatistician at the University of Massachusetts — shows deaths declining slightly but maintaining a fairly high rate of more than 5,000 a week for the next four weeks, with a likely total of 205,093 before the end of September.
Another model — developed by Lauren Ancel Meyers at University of Texas at Austin — takes into account the extent of social distancing using cellphone data. That model forecasts the daily number of deaths increasing in September from roughly 1,000 deaths a day to almost 2,000.
Currently, about 910,00 people globally are known to have died from the virus, according to IHME. The true death toll is likely higher, with many people dying either at home or without having been tested for the virus.
The “most likely” scenario produced by IHME is for 2.8 million deaths by the end of December. The best-case scenario would about 2 million, and worst-case about 4 million.
By Joel Achenbach and William Wan
September 4, 2020 at 9:58 p.m. GMT+8
The global death toll from the coronavirus pandemic could triple by year’s end, with an additional 1.9 million deaths, while a fall wave of infections could drive fatalities in the United States to 410,000, according to a new forecast from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.
This new estimate reinforces warnings by many experts that cooler, less humid weather and increased time spent indoors, could lead to a surge in viral transmission this fall and winter — something typically seen with other respiratory viruses.
The institute’s forecasts were influential earlier in the pandemic in guiding policies developed by the White House coronavirus task force, but they have been criticized by some experts for making projections further into the future than can be done reliably.
The U.S. death toll from covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, now stands at 183,000, according to health data analyzed by The Washington Post. The IHME model projects that under the most likely scenario, 410,451 people in the U.S. will have died by Jan. 1. The best case scenario is 288,381 deaths, and worst-case is 620,029.
Exactly how the fall and winter play out depends heavily on how people choose to behave in terms of following public health protocols like social distancing, as well as on government policies, researchers at IHME and elsewhere have noted.
“We are facing the prospect of a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia, and the United States,” Christopher Murray, director of IHME, said in a statement. “But the science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: Mask-wearing, social distancing, and limits to social gatherings are vital to helping prevent transmission of the virus.”
With rigid adherence to social distancing and mask-wearing, 770,000 lives could be saved globally by year’s end, IHME projected.
In recent weeks, the daily number of U.S. infections and deaths have gradually slowed, but experts warn that could all change this fall and winter for several reasons. There is evidence that colder, dryer temperatures with less sunlight may allow the virus to stay viable longer and help its transmission.
One key insight in recent months is that the virus is much harder to transmit outdoors, but as that temperature drops, people will spend more time indoors. Schools and universities have also reopened in some areas, which could speed transmission. Public health leaders also worry that people may ease or give up on social distancing from fatigue or lack of vigilance.
Few models forecast as far into the future as the IHME does. Many models do not project further than four to six weeks ahead.
“Beyond that, it’s all conjecture and guesswork because there are so many factors we just can’t predict and factors about transmission that truthfully scientists don’t understand very well yet,” said Jeffrey Shaman, an infectious-disease expert who leads the modeling team at Columbia University. “What happens the next few months really depends on what we do as a society the next few weeks.”
One of the most useful tools for public health officials and others has been an “ensemble model” — an aggregation of several of the country’s leading models to make a more reliable forecast. One of the most heavily used ensemble models — assembled by Nicholas Reich, a biostatistician at the University of Massachusetts — shows deaths declining slightly but maintaining a fairly high rate of more than 5,000 a week for the next four weeks, with a likely total of 205,093 before the end of September.
Another model — developed by Lauren Ancel Meyers at University of Texas at Austin — takes into account the extent of social distancing using cellphone data. That model forecasts the daily number of deaths increasing in September from roughly 1,000 deaths a day to almost 2,000.
Currently, about 910,00 people globally are known to have died from the virus, according to IHME. The true death toll is likely higher, with many people dying either at home or without having been tested for the virus.
The “most likely” scenario produced by IHME is for 2.8 million deaths by the end of December. The best-case scenario would about 2 million, and worst-case about 4 million.
