Energy, water issues in South Asia
By Maqbool Ahmed Bhatty
THE 21st century was expected to be the century of economic and social development following the tumultuous 20th century which was dominated by the two world wars in its first half and the Cold War in the second.
In the last decade of the 20th century that followed the end of the Cold War, there was speculation as to the process of change towards an age of peace and cooperation in the coming century that would also mark the beginning of the new millennium.
The signs could not be regarded as promising as Indo-Pakistan relations deteriorated following the intensification of the movement for self-determination among the Kashmiri people. The extremist Hindu Party, BJP, rose to power in India and decided to go overtly nuclear by testing nuclear weapons in May 1998.
Indian leaders then adopted an arrogant attitude towards Pakistan, with top BJP leaders demanding that Pakistan should vacate Azad Kashmir. Pakistan was compelled to conduct nuclear tests two weeks later to match Indiaââ¬â¢s ability and gain strategic parity.
This development gave impetus to a dialogue to resolve the disputes between the two countries peacefully reflected in Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's bus journey to Lahore in early 1999. Though the Lahore Declaration announced a joint commitment to resolve their differences peacefully, the Kargil conflict in Kashmir virtually cancelled out the gains. It took two years to resume the dialogue at the Agra summit in July 2001. The events of 9/11 caused an interruption as India tried coercive diplomacy in 2001-2002 but the peace process started anew from January 2004, with all items of the composite dialogue being taken up. An additional water issue arose over the Baglihar Dam, which was referred to the World Bank in accordance with the Indus Water Treat.
The decision on the Baglihar Dam issue announced by the expert named by the World Bank serves to underline the growing importance of energy and water issues between India and Pakistan. As the river Chenab had been allotted to Pakistan under the Indus Water Treaty of 1960, India is entitled to use its waters only to generate hydro-electricity. However, the design and construction of the projected dam at Baglihar were such that the storage of the water in the winter months could result in denial of water for irrigation to Pakistan.
Traditional concepts of security had been concerned with threats to the independence of countries from major powers, or ambitious neighbours. The maintenance of adequate armed forces, equipped with the latest weapons, was considered a necessity. Since the end of the Second World War the national interests to be defended through diplomacy and the international system have come to include trade and economic interests for which freedom of the seas and other facilities have been developed over the years.
As the world's population has increased and there are growing demands on natural resources, particularly water and sources of energy, the limits of economic growth have been recognised along with the need to develop and sustain the essential ingredients for a rising standard of living all over the world. The industrial revolution gave its beneficiaries not only the capacity to increase their production but also the means to increase their military power so that they proceeded to acquire colonies as markets for their goods and as sources for raw materials during the 18th and 19th centuries.
The colonising powers, located mostly in Europe, managed to reach agreement on their share in Asia, Africa and Latin America, However, late-comers like Germany manifested their dissatisfaction by waging wars. The two world wars in the first half of the 20th century compelled the establishment of the UN system to end the "scourge of war", and to foster economic and social development in all parts of the world.
Though the Cold War limited any significant political gains by the rival super powers in the second half of the 20th century, most of the colonies won their independence and the UN agencies dealing with economic and social issues recorded significant gains. However, despite having lost their empires the developed countries kept increasing their wealth and share of the world's resources through their control of capital and technology, while most developing countries fell further behind.
As the disparity between the developed and developing countries grew, the larger problems of resource constraint began to make their presence felt owing to a combination of natural and man-made factors. Scarcity of water and energy had been forecast in the planet as a whole since the mid 20th century. The concept of sustainable development gradually began to preoccupy planners and economists as the attention of leaders and administrations alike turned to mobilising natural resources to improve the life of their people.
As the limits to the water supplies available for meeting competing demands were realised it began to be forecast that "future wars might well be fought over water resources". Asia, the continent containing over 60 per cent of the world's population, with 20 per cent each in China and the South Asian subcontinent, has potentially the most serious problem in this regard.
It may be recalled that following independence in 1947, the issue of sharing the waters of the Indo-Gangetic water system arose and was resolved only through the good offices of the World Bank that promoted lengthy negotiations culminating in the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960.
This treaty was not viewed favourably by exponents of international law as it violated the principle of safeguarding the rights of lower riparians. India was able to press its case by taking the water resources of the Indus river system as a whole, and as there were canals from two eastern rivers, Ravi and Sutlej irrigating substantial areas in Pakistani Punjab, Pakistan had to construct major dams on the Indus (Tarbela) and Jhelum (Mangla) to transfer water to the Ravi and Sutlej.
While the Indus Waters Treaty has worked reasonably well India has been interfering with the waters of the three western rivers, on the plea that the people of occupied Kashmir have needs also. The fact that Kashmir is a disputed territory has not inhibited it from coming up with water and energy projects that have given rise to new items in the agenda of bilateral differences, such as Wullar Barrage, Baglihar dam, and most recently the Kishenganga project.
In the emerging scenario, India has the ability to pressure Pakistan on water issues, but its long-term energy requirements require transit facilities through Pakistan for oil and gas pipelines from Iran and Central Asia.
As the concept of security now covers assured access to both water and energy resources, this demands a virtual transformation of Indo-Pakistan relations from one of confrontation to that of cooperation. Indeed, the increasingly powerful industrial elite in India is in favour of the integrated management of the water and energy resources of South Asia, and the adoption of a conciliatory and cooperative attitude, rather than an assertive one towards its neighbours.
Both countries are stepping up their efforts to develop water resources, both for generating hydro-electric energy and for human consumption and irrigation. Pakistan's total hydel energy potential is 30,000MW of which only about 6,000MW have been developed. There is need for harmonious management of available resources of water and energy, and for Pakistan, it is imperative that the interest of Afghanistan is kept in view as its main river, the Kabul, is a tributary of the Indus. India would have to keep in view the interests of Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh.
In the current phase, the US is backing India in developing nuclear power, while Pakistan would have to rely on China. There is a role for the great powers, including Japan and Russia, in transferring technology.
Together with other challenges of the environment, including global warming, degradation caused by poverty, and desertification, the management of water and energy resources in overcrowded parts of the planet must assume a high priority if our economic and social goals are to be achieved.
The writer is a former ambassador.
http://www.dawn.com/2007/02/26/ed.htm#4
By Maqbool Ahmed Bhatty
THE 21st century was expected to be the century of economic and social development following the tumultuous 20th century which was dominated by the two world wars in its first half and the Cold War in the second.
In the last decade of the 20th century that followed the end of the Cold War, there was speculation as to the process of change towards an age of peace and cooperation in the coming century that would also mark the beginning of the new millennium.
The signs could not be regarded as promising as Indo-Pakistan relations deteriorated following the intensification of the movement for self-determination among the Kashmiri people. The extremist Hindu Party, BJP, rose to power in India and decided to go overtly nuclear by testing nuclear weapons in May 1998.
Indian leaders then adopted an arrogant attitude towards Pakistan, with top BJP leaders demanding that Pakistan should vacate Azad Kashmir. Pakistan was compelled to conduct nuclear tests two weeks later to match Indiaââ¬â¢s ability and gain strategic parity.
This development gave impetus to a dialogue to resolve the disputes between the two countries peacefully reflected in Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's bus journey to Lahore in early 1999. Though the Lahore Declaration announced a joint commitment to resolve their differences peacefully, the Kargil conflict in Kashmir virtually cancelled out the gains. It took two years to resume the dialogue at the Agra summit in July 2001. The events of 9/11 caused an interruption as India tried coercive diplomacy in 2001-2002 but the peace process started anew from January 2004, with all items of the composite dialogue being taken up. An additional water issue arose over the Baglihar Dam, which was referred to the World Bank in accordance with the Indus Water Treat.
The decision on the Baglihar Dam issue announced by the expert named by the World Bank serves to underline the growing importance of energy and water issues between India and Pakistan. As the river Chenab had been allotted to Pakistan under the Indus Water Treaty of 1960, India is entitled to use its waters only to generate hydro-electricity. However, the design and construction of the projected dam at Baglihar were such that the storage of the water in the winter months could result in denial of water for irrigation to Pakistan.
Traditional concepts of security had been concerned with threats to the independence of countries from major powers, or ambitious neighbours. The maintenance of adequate armed forces, equipped with the latest weapons, was considered a necessity. Since the end of the Second World War the national interests to be defended through diplomacy and the international system have come to include trade and economic interests for which freedom of the seas and other facilities have been developed over the years.
As the world's population has increased and there are growing demands on natural resources, particularly water and sources of energy, the limits of economic growth have been recognised along with the need to develop and sustain the essential ingredients for a rising standard of living all over the world. The industrial revolution gave its beneficiaries not only the capacity to increase their production but also the means to increase their military power so that they proceeded to acquire colonies as markets for their goods and as sources for raw materials during the 18th and 19th centuries.
The colonising powers, located mostly in Europe, managed to reach agreement on their share in Asia, Africa and Latin America, However, late-comers like Germany manifested their dissatisfaction by waging wars. The two world wars in the first half of the 20th century compelled the establishment of the UN system to end the "scourge of war", and to foster economic and social development in all parts of the world.
Though the Cold War limited any significant political gains by the rival super powers in the second half of the 20th century, most of the colonies won their independence and the UN agencies dealing with economic and social issues recorded significant gains. However, despite having lost their empires the developed countries kept increasing their wealth and share of the world's resources through their control of capital and technology, while most developing countries fell further behind.
As the disparity between the developed and developing countries grew, the larger problems of resource constraint began to make their presence felt owing to a combination of natural and man-made factors. Scarcity of water and energy had been forecast in the planet as a whole since the mid 20th century. The concept of sustainable development gradually began to preoccupy planners and economists as the attention of leaders and administrations alike turned to mobilising natural resources to improve the life of their people.
As the limits to the water supplies available for meeting competing demands were realised it began to be forecast that "future wars might well be fought over water resources". Asia, the continent containing over 60 per cent of the world's population, with 20 per cent each in China and the South Asian subcontinent, has potentially the most serious problem in this regard.
It may be recalled that following independence in 1947, the issue of sharing the waters of the Indo-Gangetic water system arose and was resolved only through the good offices of the World Bank that promoted lengthy negotiations culminating in the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960.
This treaty was not viewed favourably by exponents of international law as it violated the principle of safeguarding the rights of lower riparians. India was able to press its case by taking the water resources of the Indus river system as a whole, and as there were canals from two eastern rivers, Ravi and Sutlej irrigating substantial areas in Pakistani Punjab, Pakistan had to construct major dams on the Indus (Tarbela) and Jhelum (Mangla) to transfer water to the Ravi and Sutlej.
While the Indus Waters Treaty has worked reasonably well India has been interfering with the waters of the three western rivers, on the plea that the people of occupied Kashmir have needs also. The fact that Kashmir is a disputed territory has not inhibited it from coming up with water and energy projects that have given rise to new items in the agenda of bilateral differences, such as Wullar Barrage, Baglihar dam, and most recently the Kishenganga project.
In the emerging scenario, India has the ability to pressure Pakistan on water issues, but its long-term energy requirements require transit facilities through Pakistan for oil and gas pipelines from Iran and Central Asia.
As the concept of security now covers assured access to both water and energy resources, this demands a virtual transformation of Indo-Pakistan relations from one of confrontation to that of cooperation. Indeed, the increasingly powerful industrial elite in India is in favour of the integrated management of the water and energy resources of South Asia, and the adoption of a conciliatory and cooperative attitude, rather than an assertive one towards its neighbours.
Both countries are stepping up their efforts to develop water resources, both for generating hydro-electric energy and for human consumption and irrigation. Pakistan's total hydel energy potential is 30,000MW of which only about 6,000MW have been developed. There is need for harmonious management of available resources of water and energy, and for Pakistan, it is imperative that the interest of Afghanistan is kept in view as its main river, the Kabul, is a tributary of the Indus. India would have to keep in view the interests of Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh.
In the current phase, the US is backing India in developing nuclear power, while Pakistan would have to rely on China. There is a role for the great powers, including Japan and Russia, in transferring technology.
Together with other challenges of the environment, including global warming, degradation caused by poverty, and desertification, the management of water and energy resources in overcrowded parts of the planet must assume a high priority if our economic and social goals are to be achieved.
The writer is a former ambassador.
http://www.dawn.com/2007/02/26/ed.htm#4
