Elections 2008

[roadrunner]

Trust me on this one, the US keeps an eye on where it's aid is going. They know most of the military aid they gave us to fight Al-Qaida was spent on acquiring arms to counter India. The US will not let a single penny go where it should not, they have a very strong accountability culture. Besides, all this talk of "looting the country" should stop now.

Nonsense. The US buys its allies and with Zardari, he'll be very easy to buy and manipulate. The US has not given Pakistan anything substantial. 4 or 5 billion is nothing really for an economy of 140 billion or so (and that spread over a period of years). Also the talk of "looting the country" should be something at the forefront of every Pakistanis minds, since two convicted criminals and money launderers now have access to billions in reserves once again. Why shouldn't people keep an eye on their money?

One can't simply open up a Swiss bank account and transfer money there. This is 2008. A bird can't flap a feather without somebody who shouldn't know finding out about it.

Oh it's 2008, and all of a sudden you can't open Bank Accounts. Trust me, you're very naive or plain dopey. There's many ways in which Zardari got around such problems a decade ago, one by depositing millions into various names like Nasir Hussain and Nusrat Bhutto. This was all his money of course.

 

[Spring Onion]

You r right .I didnt say Musharraf is SURELY going.

But as I said his position will be weakened.

And dont forget I said that if PML Q abandons Musharraf????????

Then who knows they will have the senate too.

i salute PML-Q for their moral courage as Yesterday Chaudhry Parvez Elahi and Shujat both praised Musharraf and also said they were with him and they are still supporting him.

Atleast PML-Q derserves appreciation for their stance now it dosnt matter whether their support could save him or not.


let me come to the money spent by political parties in these elections, no account is avilable

 

[solid snake]

I simply hope that you are right but remember it was musharraf that freed the media that we have today the same media that just doesnt let go a single change criticizing him. We have no gurantee that it will remain free after the president is gone and we come back to the same spot it was prior to Musharraf era. We have seen it past in both NS and PP era.
Secondly the other point i was mentioning here was that i remembered President saying that we donot need aids, we need to have more and more trade, now obiviously we cant expect much from this tola the reason is that it is one of our very old tradition to reverse all policies of the past government even if some of them atleast are for the betterment of the state. Hope you understand the drill here, its not state where transfering funds will not be easy, its pakistan, a place where people are known of becoming fools by the same people in different disguise.

I can understand people's apprehension about Zardari and NS, and even BB if she was alive and had won the election. But there is no way to control the media now. If an army general couldn't control it, there is no way a civilian government can shut it up. Like Agnostic Muslim has said in this thread, or somewhere else perhaps, that the Pakistani people are addicted to the media now. Look at the big deal created worldwide by Mushrrafs order to shutdown Geo and other channels which disobeyed what he wanted them to say or not say.

And once again, I share your concern over corruption through other means, but stealing the country's coffers is not possible anymore. The media is far too strong and independent. As for corruption in other ways, yes it will happen with a democratic government. But these things happen with unmature democracies, once we have steady democracy for 10-15 years, you will see things improving drastically. Even the American politicians in the 1930s were hopelessly corrupt. But now an American politician can't dream of taking a bribe or stealing state money.

Oh it's 2008, and all of a sudden you can't open Bank Accounts. Trust me, you're very naive or plain dopey. There's many ways in which Zardari got around such problems a decade ago, one by depositing millions into various names like Nasir Hussain and Nusrat Bhutto. This was all his money of course.

You are the one who'se naive if you think Zardari can simply take $1 million from the country's reserves and transfer it to a bank account in Europe which he opened under someone elses name. Do you think nobody will notice money missing from the country's reserve?

You can't open bank accounts with stolen money in 2008 because of Pakistan's media explosion. Other than the many channels we have who are not afraid of investigating things that will get them in trouble (such as 'mising persons' under mushy), we now have a dedicated financial newspaper called the Business Recorder which each and everyday publishes details of the economy and numbers of reserves, and contract awards etc.

If Zardari's antics were found out back then in the 80s/90s when there was only 1 channel owned by the state, then I can assure you that anyone attempting corruption will be found out very quickly now.

 

[dabong1]

i salute PML-Q for their moral courage as Yesterday Chaudhry Parvez Elahi and Shujat both praised Musharraf and also said they were with him and they are still supporting him.

Atleast PML-Q derserves appreciation for their stance now it dosnt matter whether their support could save him or not.

Hopefully PML-Q will stay together as a party and be a third force in the countrys political landscape.....makes pakistans democracy better and stronger with all segments of society being involved in the running of the country.

 

[mujahideen]

Hopefully PML-Q will stay together as a party and be a third force in the countrys political landscape.....makes pakistans democracy better and stronger with all segments of society being involved in the running of the country.

I agree they should stay together but the party size will shrink in the comming days because some of the corrupt people who only want power will join one of the parties in power. I personally see elections within the next 2 years with the PML-Q comming back into power. I dont think the new government will be able to do anything for the people and the people will see that they were better off under the PML-Q.

 

[mujahideen]

Pakistan press urges Musharraf to go

Pakistani newspapers say the result of Monday's parliamentary elections is a vote against President Pervez Musharraf.

The main party backing President Musharraf suffered a heavy defeat in the polls.

The Pakistan People's Party (PPP) of the late former PM, Benazir Bhutto, won the most seats, followed by the PML-N of another former PM, Nawaz Sharif,

The two opposition parties are expected to begin talks on forming a coalition that could potentially control more than half the seats in parliament.


The Nation says the vote offers a "clear verdict" on President Musharraf.

The paper says the vote "rubbishes the government's policies of lopsided development, its claim that it has created an economic bonanza for the general public and its decision to have recourse to the military option to eliminate the hydra-headed monster of terrorism".

"As these policies were based on false and historically disproved premises, they backfired."

The paper says election day, 18 February, was also "the day of a referendum on the standing of President Musharraf among the people".

"We believe that the president should listen to the people's voice and step down."

'Autocratic rule'

Urdu daily Jang echoes the sentiment.

"We believe President Musharraf should decide for himself if he can continue to hold office when the people have voted for his arch rival."

"After casting his vote on Monday, he said that he would go along with the winning party. Now it will be difficult for him to be true to his words."

"We believe it is better for the leadership of both winning parties and the president to take decisions in the greater interests of the nation, as the challenges faced by the country these days can only be combated through unity."


Dawn says President Musharraf's policies stand "rejected" after an election that was a referendum on Mr Musharraf's policies.

"The nation expects him to be a good loser... The voters have punished all those seen as being supportive of autocratic rule."

The News says the president and his supporters in parliament have been beaten and "more or less humiliated".

The paper says Mr Musharraf will have to break with past habits and "eat humble pie and work in accordance with the wishes of all those who were until yesterday the target of his scorn and contempt."

'War against citizens'

Several newspapers urge the leading PPP and PML-N to cooperate to achieve a smooth transition to democracy.

"Even if the two mainstream parties have a difference of opinion on some major issues, they cannot overlook the factors that led to their victory in the polls," The Nation says.

"One was the widespread resentment against the President Musharraf regime for conducting a war against its own citizens, especially in the tribal region and Balochistan."

The paper says the two parties must "be conscious of the growing anti-US sentiment if at all they decide to fight the ongoing 'war on terror'."

Express says the two parties have a lot of responsibility to share and expressed concerns over possible political manipulation.


"The leadership of both parties should demonstrate sanity and cooperate with each other so that the journey towards democracy in the country can be continued smoothly."
"We think certain elements will try to create differences between the two major political forces. If they succeed in doing so, the politics of horse trading and compromise will start again, which is detrimental to democracy."

Dawn says the results prove Pakistanis want more control over their lives.

"They [voters] haven't gone ahead and given a huge majority to one single party."

"One can safely assume that Pakistanis want more self-governance, more provincial autonomy and a relatively weak centre that allows them to lead their lives the way they wish to."

BBC NEWS | South Asia | Pakistan press urges Musharraf to go

 

[mujahideen]

The end of the West's 'Musharraf policy'?

By Paul Reynolds
World affairs correspondent, BBC News website

Perhaps the most encouraging feature of the Pakistan elections from the US, British and other Western points of view was the success of secular parties in resisting the spread of pro-Taleban influence.


Those governments would agree with a commentator in the Pakistan Daily Times who said: "The return of the liberal and secular ANP [Awami National Party] and PPP [Pakistan People's Party] to North West Frontier Province heralds a promise of peace and stability denied to the hapless province during the reign of the MMA [religious parties].

"It is the rise of liberal democracy and not the ouster of President Musharraf per se by any confrontationist means that will help solve the problem of religious extremism in Pakistan."

It is ironic that the democracy called for by the US, Britain and others has now very much isolated the man they supported before, President Musharraf.

Divided results

But they would say that that is the nature of an election and that it must be welcomed. The system is bigger than one man.

The US called the election a "step toward the full restoration of democracy".


But one can expect that they will place less reliance on President Musharraf than before without wanting him to retire from the scene.

The Wall Street Journal summed up this shift in US policy away from supporting one man: "For the Bush administration, Monday's election means that it can continue [the] transition from what is often described as a "Musharraf policy" to a broader Pakistani one.

"It was never in America's interests to humiliate or isolate the Pakistani leader... But US interests in Pakistan are best served by cultivating democratic institutions and a vibrant civil society with its own interests in fighting Islamic extremism."

Disastrous

Much remains uncertain, given the divided results. A great deal depends on who will become prime minister and the eventual fate of Pervez Musharraf.

What can be said that is that, although the British and American hopes of getting Benazir Bhutto back into office failed because of a disastrous lapse of security, Pakistan seems to have come through the election cycle as it sometimes has in the past, by surprising the outside world and perhaps itself by sticking to the process.

The army under its new commander, Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kiani, has stayed in the background.

The question now is how far the army will pursue its anti-Taleban operations in the tribal areas along the Afghan frontier. That work is seen as a vital by Nato governments supporting Afghan President Karzai. How much will it depend on the atttiude of a new Pakistani government?

Overall, the results must give hope to governments worried about the influence of Islamic extremism inside the country, about the security of Pakistan's nuclear weapons [though the US is quite confident about that] and about the ability of the Pakistani government to combat the Taleban elements operating across into Afghanistan.

But as so often in Pakistan's history, the stability of one moment is not necessarily a pointer to the long-term future.

 

[mujahideen]

Pakistan - the balance of forces

The results of Pakistan's elections have been a setback for President Musharraf, whose party has been rejected in the polls and who now has to fend off demands for his resignation. So what is the current balance of political forces in Pakistan?

PRESIDENT PERVEZ MUSHARRAF

For years Pervez Musharraf was unequivocally the most powerful man in Pakistan but that no longer appears to be the case.

Appearing on state television the night before the vote, President Musharraf called for the victors to be humble and conciliatory.

Critics say there was a touch of hypocrisy over this plea, since the former general almost always chose to treat his opponents with anything but those qualities when he was at the height of his powers.

The president's Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid-i-Azam party (PML-Q) was all but wiped out in the polls. Now shorn of his uniform, the former military ruler is now in the weakest position he has been in for a decade.

He must now work with the two political parties whom he has always wanted to keep out of government.

There is the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), who have all but accused his regime of being involved in the assassination of their leader, Benazir Bhutto.

And then there is the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), headed by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, whom Mr Musharraf overthrew in a coup and who is now back to haunt him.

The PPP want overwhelming control of the executive - that is, for the transfer of all powers to the prime minister. The party wants the president to be no more than a figurehead.

The PML-N wants nothing less than the removal of President Musharraf, by impeachment if necessary.

President Musharraf is unlikely to stand for either, and has indicated he will step down if he feels he is no longer needed.

Given the current mood, that would be the best option for the former military ruler.

After all, the president himself described the vote as "the mother of all elections", which nearly everyone agreed would serve as a referendum on his rule.

Given the poll results, the next move seems to be summarised by what is arguably Pakistan's most popular new slogan - "Go, Musharraf Go".

PAKISTAN PEOPLE'S PARTY

The PPP is on the one hand celebrating its success as the largest single party to emerge from the vote, while at the same time trying to rebuild itself after the assassination of its leader, Benazir Bhutto, in December.

The party seems to have come full circle from the time it stormed back into power after the death of former military ruler, Gen Zia ul-Haq , in 1988.

There was great expectation then, as there is now, that the party would drag the country back from the brink of chaos.

Only one thing was different. The PPP then was led by the charismatic and young Ms Bhutto.

While subsequent PPP governments did not quite live up to those expectations, many of Ms Bhutto's admirers say this was because of factors beyond her control.

Her return in October 2007 once again brought out all the charisma that overrode many failings.

Her assassination has been described as a Shakespearean ending to a life of triumph and tragedy. It has also left her party rudderless.

The PPP's victory, given the circumstances, has been a surprise to no-one.

Whether it can stay united and translate its current gains into a powerful and reforming political movement remains to be seen.

PAKISTAN MUSLIM LEAGUE - NAWAZ

The PML-N is led by Nawaz Sharif, the man toppled by Gen Musharraf in a coup in 1999.

Mr Sharif returned from years of exile last year. That has revitalised his party - which surprised many by emerging as the second largest in the elections.

It enjoys strong support from Pakistan's industrial and business classes.

The resurrection of Mr Sharif and the PML-N in the elections has been nothing short of miraculous.

In August 2007, when Mr Sharif was sent back into exile after attempting to return, many analysts believed that was the end of his political career.

But he returned soon after and since then has been working to get his party, ravaged by arrests and defections, back on its feet.

The PML-N is perhaps the only party which organised its campaigns around issues rather than sloganeering.

The two main points, other than the tackling inflation and improving employment, are the restoration of the judges sacked by President Musharraf when he imposed emergency rule in November and his removal as president.

Mr Sharif argues that his period of rule over the last 10 years has been unconstitutional.

On both agendas, Mr Sharif was uncompromising and promised to follow through with them if voted into power.

That dream may come true sooner than many imagined.

PAKISTAN MUSLIM LEAGUE - QUAID-E-AZAM

The PML-Q was formed mainly from defectors from the PML-N after the 1999 coup.

Since then it has been the main parliamentary face of President Musharraf's government, together with smaller provincial allies. It was the disputed victor of elections in 2002. But now it is in tatters.

Before the elections, they were full of confident bluster.

"We will win 100 seats," said Chaudhry Pervez Illahi, one of party's senior leaders.

But as results came in, over two-thirds of the party's high command lost their seats.

The remainder can at best hope to be minor partners in one of the provincial governments.

History looks set to remember PML-Q leaders as the latest in a long line of turncoats who have figured throughout Pakistan's turbulent political history, and who have been wiped out as soon as they were held to account in a popular vote.

NATIONALIST AND ETHNIC PARTIES

President Musharraf's tenure has been characterised by the suppression of nationalist parties and politicians.

With the exception of the MQM in the southern province of Sindh, President Musharraf chose either to sideline them or use strong-arm tactics against them.

In recent months the fire of nationalism, albeit with a religious tint, has started engulfing NWFP.

But the latest elections have brought the nationalists storming back into the political mainstream.

The ANP's revival in NWFP is a good example of this.

While the nationalists are not in a position to form the government, they are likely to play a critical role in its final shape.

They are also likely to push for greater provincial autonomy so that the provinces become a federation.

ISLAMIC PARTIES and OTHERS

The right wing MMA coalition of Islamic parties, which controlled the country's North West Frontier Province (NWFP), has been routed in the polls.

The winners belong to the province's old guard, the secular Pashtun Awami National Party (ANP) and the PPP.

Analysts predicted that the MMA would not do as well this time as in 2002.

The results though, may well reflect that the Islamists triumph then was a flash in the pan.

In 2002, the right wing political alliance won control over NWFP and a large number of national assembly seats.

But the province has since descended into chaos and anarchy, caused by extremists and Islamic militants.

Many locals blame MMA policies for this, arguing that they have only served to embolden the militants.

In addition, the region is the focus of international concern, after being named as a safe haven for al-Qaeda and Taleban militants.

Almost all the nationalist groups from the troubled province of Balochistan decided to boycott the elections.

ISLAMIC MILITANTS

The biggest concentration of militants are in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan but they have been widening their area of activity.

Their main enemy is the army, but politicians, journalists, diplomats, social workers and government employees have all been targeted.

Newer militants are being drawn from all ethnic and social groups, rather than comprising mainly Pashtun tribesmen.

Intelligence and defence officials now admit privately that the militants may want nothing less than an independent Islamic state of their own.

But the strong public verdict in favour of relatively secular parties in NWFP is likely to have drastic consequences for such grandiose plans.

GEN ASHFAQ PERVEZ KAYANI - ARMY CHIEF

Gen Kayani was handpicked by President Musharraf to succeed him as army chief last year. He heads what is the most powerful institution in the country.

But the army has been badly demoralised by Islamic militants who have kidnapped and killed hundreds of soldiers in ambushes and suicide bombings.

Gen Kayani's response has been to get the army out of politics and back doing it primary job, ensuring security. Army personnel have been recalled from posts in civilian institutions. Senior officers have been banned from talking to politicians until after the elections.

Sources have told the BBC that Gen Kayani has moved to minimise interference in the polls by the intelligence services.

The key question now is how much support the army will give President Musharraf following his drubbing in the polls.

BBC NEWS | South Asia | Pakistan - the balance of forces

 

[mujahideen]

Congratulations Pakistan … and now the issues

Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Shireen M Mazari

The people of Pakistan have, given the opportunity, again sought to shift the centre of gravity of the national polity to the civilian elected leaders. Once again the nation has done itself proud by going through an electoral process successfully. Contrary to forebodings of major acts of terrorism, Election Day went off largely peacefully, although there was isolated violence and precious lives were lost. Equally important, despite the bogey of massive rigging, the results show a largely fair and free election. And, in keeping with the civil society resurgence since March 2007, the electorate showed a determination to start afresh and reject the previous incumbents because of their poor showing on issues relating not only to judicial independence and rule of law, but also on the food shortages and gas and electricity outages. That the low turnout seemed to have brought out the protest vote in large numbers was another interesting feature of these elections which saw major political figures' suffer humiliating defeats.

Perhaps the only pre-poll prediction that proved correct was that no party would show an overwhelming majority at the national level, thereby necessitating some form of a coalition government. However, the assumption, especially by western pollsters that the PPP would lead by a clear margin, followed by a close contest between the two main PML factions proved to be incorrect as the PML-N seemed to have ridden a wave of support in the Punjab. It appears that even the PML-N itself may have been somewhat pleasantly surprised by the results!

The debate has already begun as to why primarily the PML-N gained at the expense of the PML-Q in Punjab, rather than the PPP. Many reasons are being cited, including the traditional explanation that the PML-N basically got back its old vote bank which was the traditional PPP -- anti-PPP voter divide in Punjab. Yet that is too simplistic just as it tends to insinuate a static polity -- which is certainly not the case anymore. One should also focus on the fact that the PML-N was the only major party which took a strong and unequivocal stance on the judicial issue; and in the urban areas of Punjab that stance found resonance in the voters of these constituencies -- including in Islamabad.

Whatever the final tally, the anti-Q vote was as much a vote against President Musharraf as it was against the Q League; but there had always been a mutuality of interest and support between the president and the Q League, so it makes no sense for the latter to lay the blame of their electoral wipe out solely on the shoulders of the president! Also, in many constituencies, including this writer's, it was not simply the macro level national issues like freedom of the media and judiciary that worked against the Q League candidate. Instead, it was the micro level subsistence issues and the corruption and harassment by the district nazim and his setup, that led the voters to the opponent.

Moving on, now that the elections are over, there is a need to focus on the issues the new political dispensation will have to face. Perhaps the most pressing issue is the judiciary issue and here it will be interesting to see how the PPP and the PML-N resolve their differing approaches. But it must be evident to all the elected politicians that civil society expects the restoration of an independent judiciary from the new political leaders. This is an issue that could once again bring civil society on to the streets.

As central an issue to the well being of the nation is the scourge of extremism and terrorism that is afflicting us presently. What, if any, will be the new approaches to dealing with this interlinked twin menace? Does the fact that elections were held peacefully even in the tribal belt signal a new approach on the part of the extremists or does it reflect the tribal people's intent to delink from these forces of violence and terror?

And, of course, linked to this issue is the issue of the US-led "war on terrorism". Will we continue to expend our energies in fighting this war according to the US's failed military-centric strategy or would we push forward a more holistic and indigenous strategy for fighting the terrorist threat within our midst? All this leads up to an even more central issue for the country: our relations with the US. Will we continue to willy-nilly be following US diktat as we seemed to have done even in the context of the NRO; or will we finally realise that our strategic interests over the long term do not coincide with US strategic interests? How we deal with the US requires a careful assessment of US policy towards Pakistan since 9/11and of the history of Pakistan-US relations before 9/11, so that a more viable and rational policy in this regard can be devised. We stand at a critical juncture in terms of our relations towards the US and India, and how we formulate our policies in this regard will determine our future long term regional status.

When our new political dispensation is considering Pakistan-US relations it must recall the insidious moves within the US to suggest balkanisation of Pakistan. Although the suggestions have come from US analysts, we would do well to remember that these analysts work closely with the US establishment. Even more dangerous for Pakistan have been suggestions from members of the US Congress that have targeted our nuclear assets and their safety. Will our resurgent political leadership find within itself the will to confront the US on this crucial national issue and not offer explanations about nuclear safety ad nauseum?

Coming back to domestic issues, there is the question of freedom of the media. It will be interesting to see how the new power set up deals with this issue. Will they simply go along with the restrictions imposed on the media through PEMRA or will a new age of a free media emerge once again in Pakistan? After all, what one commits to when one is in power is a trifle different to what one supports when out of power. Or are we going to find ourselves amid a new and tolerant political culture even though we are mainly circulating the same political faces all over again -- only their positioning has altered?

Another crucial issue is to examine why there have been the power and flour shortages at a time when our economy was being touted as having gone into a state of good health! In fact, there is a need to examine overall policy making relating to the energy and agricultural sectors and expose the vested interests that have hindered development in both these sectors.

Finally, the nation has suffered much turmoil and heartache, not to mention abuse from within and outside. That is why there is a need for national reconciliation through acceptance of national diversity and "the other"; and for a friendly but resolute stance in the face of external powers. The strength of the state arises from within the nation. For too long the rulers have ignored this and looked to strengthen the state through external alliances. It has never worked, except in an illusory and fleeting manner.

Perhaps it is time we learnt the first lesson the elections have taught us: the people know what they want and, given a fair chance, will ensure that their will is asserted. Those who have ignored this basic fact have had but a brief period of triumph, only to be brought down and humiliated by the collectivity of the people. Our chequered electoral history has shown this time after time. It is time the state imbibed this basic lesson from its history.

The writer is director general of the Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad. Email: smnews80@hotmail.com

 

[mujahideen]

Victory for the nation

Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Nasim Zehra
The writer is an Islamabad-based security analyst

Pakistanis have reason to rejoice. The outcome of the national elections has initiated the beginning of the much needed democratic process that Pakistan needs to move ahead as a secure, prosperous and strong nation. The majority consensus is that democracy is a necessary factor for Pakistan's economic, socio-cultural and political development. Without genuine democracy Pakistan will not be viewed internationally as a mature and responsible nation.

Fortunately The fears of sabotage of the election process either through suicide bombings or through major rigging on polling day did not materialize. The security arrangements prevented major violence, although, tragically, about 25 people were killed on election day. There were also sporadic attempts to rig the elections, either through using unfair influence of nazims through intimidation and through fraudulent means like stealing ballot appears. Yet what prevented major rigging on polling day were the democratic deterrents, which included the political workers, the energy of the voters, the keen media watch and the observers' groups, including FAFEN.

The election results indicate the general fairness of the election process. Virtually the entire PML-Q federal cabinet, the bigwigs of the PML-Q including its president, Chaudary Shujaat, Shaikh Rashid and Humayun Akhtar have all lost. The IB chief's brother too lost from Punjab, perhaps suggesting that the fears of the agencies' roles in manipulating the polls was not entirely true. The result of the ninth national election is generally being accepted across the board by all political parties. While the democratic deterrent prevented major rigging attempts, the Musharraf government too was prompted by various factors to know better. The pro-PML-Q and pro-Musharraf caretaker government was unable to influence the election outcome

There are some interesting and significant facts that flow from the election outcome. Eleven are noteworthy.

One, that the election was an anti-Musharraf and anti-PML-Q referendum. The voters ultimately overlooked some of the positive steps taken by the Musharraf government and voted against him for inflation, for the atta, electricity and gas crises, the lack of his political legitimacy, the manipulation of the constitution, the manipulation of politics, his broken promises, the treatment of the chief justice, the ransacking of the judiciary and the flawed policy on terrorism. Ultimately people have voted to say no to establishment-manipulated politics and yes to genuine political forces. As for president's political future, much will depend on the PPP strategy towards him.

Two, the PPP has emerged as the only national party, bagging national and provincial assembly seats in all the four provinces. That has traditionally been the PPP's political profile when it has fought in a less than completely rigged electoral process. Benazir Bhutto's tragic assassination must have prompted some habitual fence-sitters to vote for the PPP too, but to explain the PPP victory only in terms of the sympathy wave would be incorrect. The last 70 days of Benazir's politics after she returned to Pakistan on Oct 18 did underscore the need for genuine democracy, for upholding the rule of law, for ending poverty and for ending terrorism. She astutely took on the establishment and indeed ensured the return of genuine popular politics to Pakistan by deciding to engage with General Parvez Musharraf. Indeed, even after her return to Pakistan Benazir Bhutto remained engaged with the president and the establishment.

She travelled the paradoxical path of engagement with the forces that contributed to undermining democracy and of carrying forward the democratic struggle. That the PPP leader was committed to what in her final days appeared to be no less than a mission became evident to the people as she ended up giving up her life for her mission. The other factor that has also worked against the PPP has been the incumbency factor. Its performance-deficit while in power has often lost it its traditional support. Performance deficit has also cost electoral support to other incumbent political parties.

Three, the PML-N, the second-largest party, went into the election with its leadership back in the country after six years, but was still able to get its traditional vote. Its clean sweep in Lahore and Rawalpindi divisions illustrates this fact. Additional factors that helped the PML-N's impressive showing in the elections is the anti-Musharraf Jamaat boycott, prompting many of its supporters to vote for the PML-N and the anti-PML-Q sentiment. Nawaz Sharif's unambiguous commitment to the lawyers' demand for the restoration of the pre-Nov 3 judiciary and his opposition to general Musharraf won him the votes of the politically more conscious voter who began relating to the issues of rule of law, independent judiciary and constitutional democracy that the 2007 movement threw up. The PML-N also benefited from the advantage of an intact leadership. Unlike the PPP, which lost its leader, the Sharif brothers, despite having had their appeals rejected, provide the party leadership.

Four, the ANP has managed a historic comeback in NWFP and national politics. It not only retrieved its old front-runner position in NWFP but has improved upon it. Five, the religious parties have been pushed back to their 70s' electoral support -- i.e., before the establishment had begun supporting them. Six, the PML-Q support has drastically whittled down and many of its winners may even walk over to the PML-N camp. Of the National Assembly elections and the four provincial elections where the PML-Q won is Baluchistan. Seven, in Balochistan all the regional parties opted to boycott, and so there is no representation of these parties in the national or provincial assemblies. Eight, the vote against establishment-manipulated politics is likely to further wizen the military against dabbling in the arena of politics, which is not their constitutional domain. Nine, while remaining engaged in dialogue with political forces on all sides the ISI seemed to have finally stayed away from directly manipulating the voting-day process. Ten, the government did take steps to remove some of the glitches, to reduce the possibility of rigging.

Eleven, the APDM's decision to boycott was a wrong decision, as many had argued even when the question was being debated. Boycott denied the opposition parties additional support they could have gained from APDM supporters. Also, it prevented the regional parties from participating in the electoral process and compounded the problem of alienation from the centre.

Pakistan's politics has come full circle. The election results are reminiscent of the 1970 election when genuine political forces won the day. Pakistan's media and the lawyers' community deserve a pat on the back for raising political awareness in the country and for exposing the reality of those who have been in power. Given that only a coalition government will be the way forward, the ball is in the court of the politicians. It's time for them to deliver on their tall promises of working together to promote the interest of the people and the country.

Email: nasimzehra@hotmail.com

 

[mujahideen]

New govt and the challenges

Wednesday, February 20, 2008
M B Naqvi

Few believed that so long as President Pervez Musharraf remained in charge a free election was possible. It was thought that since his own future was at stake, Musharraf was bound to ensure a victory to his friends. Opposition parties assumed the poll results could only confirm his plans.

The election's circumstances have to be noted. There were severe shortages of wheat, flour, pulses, meats and electricity, gas and almost everything of daily use and the prices went through the roof. Many accuse connivance of the erstwhile rulers with hoarders and profiteers. Some claim, this government was of the rich, by the rich and for the rich. It achieved the goal of enriching the rich by making the poor poorer. Can the next government meet the challenge of bringing down or even holding the prices of electricity, petrol, other utility charges and foodstuffs? Unless it brings the inflationary pressures down, stability of the economy can be destroyed and combined with possible inevitable political agitations, it can lead to catastrophe.

The government is being formed amidst a badly fractured politics. Take three major parties and three or four quasi-major parties, each important in a particular region. Common solutions to common problems that are galore are sure to elude. While some are temporary, other problems are of longstanding nature. Fundamental ones have never been resolved. All demand attention and major political parties differ on solutions.

There is the immediate question of what to do with detained judges and lawyers. Reforms to undo what Gen Musharraf did on Nov 3 are urgent. Surviving constitutional distortions need to be amended away. Gagging measures for the electronic media and the press need immediate withdrawal. Innumerable 'disappearances' and the two insurgencies call for immediate corrective action. In this context, former Gen Pervez Musharraf's accountability for his illegal actions and constitutional deviations and distortions is required. The choice of doing the right thing or settling for continuing with President Musharraf in order to oblige America and the NATO powers and the Army is a false one.

Associated with the foregoing is the Pakistan military's dominant role. Politicians gullibly say that the Army should be sent back to barracks. Examined closely, only one major politician says this today: it is the PML-N's leader who may be trusted to ensure that the Army goes back to barracks. This process will not be easy. It may be long. Opposition politicians frequently exploit the army's itch for power because it is always in need of more resources. Which is why it takes over and uses power-hungry politicians. This has to be prevented. A convention has to be evolved whereby politicians and generals do not socialise.

Islamist extremism of the Taliban and Al-Qaeda kind, now making waves in Pakistan's northwest and major urban centres, is an urgent problem. A national strategy has to be evolved. Bound up with it is the need to review Pakistan's Afghan policy, involving reassessment of relations with America. Extremism is basically a problem for Pakistanis to sort out.

No one is, or can be, against Islam in Pakistan. But the kind of Islam now being thrust upon the country is not the Islam to which most Pakistanis subscribe. It is a sectional one and that too of a very small segment. Major religious parties have adequately represented Islam for most Muslims. They have sufficed since the colonial period. There is no new conflict over Islam. That is the starting point. After that, the issue has to be sorted out trough democratic reforms, providing economic justice and development to tribal areas, to begin with.

The second big question, never resolved, is about regional nationalisms. In theory, its resolution is known, easy and is there: accept the federal principle. But the federation has been highly centralised and provincial governments are scarcely more than municipalities. Real power rests with the centre in terms of who actually makes important decisions and exercises taxation powers. Except the fiction of provincial taxes, Islamabad keeps the real taxation in its own hands. That is not acceptable to political opinion in Sindh, NWFP and Balochistan. Sindh has been restive; three or four uprisings and military crackdowns have taken place in Balochistan and the ongoing political turmoil in the NWFP's tribal areas is related both to the New Islam and violation of the federal principle.

The question was theoretically resolved in 1973 through Z A Bhutto's constitution. But the caveat here is that he or his successors never lived by this constitution. A patchwork of emergency and dishonestly intended constitutional amendments have controlled this 1973 Constitution. Two military dictators have disfigured it one way and one prime minister having a "heavy mandate" tried to amend it another way. Happily, he now thinks it was a mistake. The issue can be resolved if Islamabad, the GHQ and feudal gentry accept the federal principle by enhancing the Constitution's provisions for provincial autonomy.

The solution for feudal mentality is untrammelled working of democratic dispensation over a time. Actual enjoyment of fundamental human rights is the precondition. But it is not the only one. The rich-poor divide and social insecurity of the majority needs to be drastically reduced.

As for the rich-poor divide, the first thing to do is to change the decades-old economic paradigm that originated in Washington Consensus. Pakistanis should evolve their own economic paradigm specifically for Pakistan. Ensuring steady economic development with a humane face is the requirement. First priority is ending mass poverty upfront. The old trickle-down theory of development has produced the current volatile conditions. It has been a fraud and what trickles down is poverty.

A review of Pakistan's Afghan policy cannot wait. The lingering one actually aims at dominating Afghanistan sometime to make it serve Pakistan's security ends by adding strategic depth to it. This has failed. It will now put Pakistan in confrontation with America and NATO, among others. Anyway, it is morally wrong and politically dangerous. Reassessing it will entail a new relationship with America. There is no call to become inimical to America. Let Pakistan remain friends but maintain a distance and emphasise economic and cultural cooperation. Also involved is a new India policy based on primacy to regional cooperation and strengthening SAARC. If necessary, bring in China and Iran into it to make it co-terminus with most of southern Asia, leaving aside the Gulf sheikhdoms and South-East Asia that are too different to be a part of SAARC and are US-dominated.

The writer is a veteran journalist and freelance columnist. Email: mbnaqvi@ cyber. net.pk

 

[mujahideen]

After the count: what next?

TREPIDATION is slowly giving way to hope. The people have spoken. Defying threats of death and destruction, they went to the polling stations from the shores of the Arabian Sea to the snowy peaks of Central Asia to give one message to the world loud and clear: Pakistanis reject extremism of all kind and stand for democracy. Unequivocally. Dictatorship belongs to the past. It is never going to return. The results of Monday’s electoral exercise must serve to instil confidence in the people of Pakistan, for they have proved one point manifestly clear: they are quite capable of deciding who runs their country and how. The general election was also a referendum on President Pervez Musharraf’s policies: they stand rejected. The nation expects him to be a good loser. Let us, however, give him credit for an election that has been by and large fair on the day, for his sworn enemies have made a spectacular comeback through the ballot. And it is a huge relief that all the major political parties have accepted the result. There is no acrimony and no threat of breach of peace due to a disputed electoral exercise.

While the PPP and PML-N between them have captured a majority of the National Assembly’s 272 general seats, it is the rout of the PML-Q — ‘the king’s party’ — that has been stunning. The world knew that the president’s popularity graph had been declining steeply, but even his worst denigrators would not have believed that the PML-Q would receive the kind of drubbing it did. More-loyal-than-the-king titans of the King’s party tumbled like nine pins. While Chaudhry Parvaiz Elahi managed to get only one of the three seats he was contesting, party chief Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain suffered the ignominy of losing both his home ground to the PPP’s Ahmad Mukhtar, and a Sialkot seat he was fighting for. Also to be skittled out were such die-hard PML-Q men as the over-articulate Sheikh Rashid Ahmad, the far-from-neutral NA Speaker Chaudhry Amir Hussain and PPP turncoats Rao Sikandar Iqbal and Dr Sher Afgan. One can go on and on with the list for nearly two dozen members of the former PML-Q cabinet were rejected by the voters.

A fuller analysis of the voting pattern must take some time, but an interim comment on the basis of the results available can be made safely. Even in death Benazir Bhutto has lived up to her supporters’ slogan of charon soobon ki zanjeer (link between the four provinces). The PPP has won seats in all the provinces and proved that it is a truly national party. The PML-N’s landslide is confined to Punjab, and it has some seats in the NWFP. But it is clear that Nawaz Sharif’s stance on the restoration of the judiciary and the role of the military in politics found resonance among the electorate. In urban Sindh, the MQM has maintained its hold over its traditional seats, and in the NWFP the ANP has made a remarkable recovery after suffering so badly at the hands of the MMA in the 2002 election. The NWFP result demonstrated what the voters say to religious parties and extremism when their will is not subverted through a rigged election. Balochistan is a mixed bag, with a low turnout because of a boycott by nationalist parties. Experts are warning against reading too much into what appears like a PML-Q win. Most of those victorious on PML-Q tickets have been winning regardless of the platform they have run from as they are tribal leaders.

The sorriest of the boycott lot must be Qazi Hussain Ahmad. He has conceded a walkover to the secular ANP, Maulana Fazlur Rahman’s victory in one of the two constituencies being the only consolation for an MMA that is now in tatters. The PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif and ANP chief Asfandyar Wali have already stated their positions in order to set the parameters for any coalition-building discussion with, say, the PPP which itself has started a meeting of its Central Executive Committee to assess its option.

Experts will be working out the various permutations on calculators but one thing ought not to be pushed out of sight in the activity leading up to government formation. The voters have punished all those seen as being supportive of autocratic rule. But they haven’t gone ahead and given a huge majority to one single party. One can safely assume that Pakistanis want more self-governance, more provincial autonomy and a relatively weak centre that allows them to lead their lives the way they wish to. As the new parliament comes into existence and starts to discuss and debate the challenges confronting the country, let it not forget that more autonomy to the federating units will be a good antidote to many of the ills afflicting the country today. It will bring the Federation closer together.

DAWN - Editorial; February 20, 2008

 

[mujahideen]

A perfect election

By Asha’ar Rehman

IT is a perfect verdict for everyone except for those who had become a liability for people above and below them. The cake was cut in a manner to please generally. The eating part will come later.

First take the president of the country. He has been absolved of charges of rigging the vote in favour of his Pakistan Muslim League-Q. He had sent shivers down the spine of all those who considered a free election vital for Pakistan’s stability when he said that he expected his allies to obtain a majority on Feb 18. It may have cost Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain his seat in the National Assembly, but at least he can boast now that aspersions cast on President Pervez Musharraf’s role during the polls have turned out to be false.

Next is the Pakistan Election Commission, which had been until Feb 18 dubbed as the executer of the rigging plan. Its early estimates say the voter turnout could be as high as 45 per cent. This should make foreign analysts happy and the observers from abroad will soon be giving us a clean bill of democratic health, and they will not have to worry about their conscience. Only a couple of days before the polls, some of them were heard criticising all parties for violating the election code.

The results closely reflect a popular desire for change, a breaking away from the Musharrafian tradition of the last eight years or so. At the same time, manifest in the verdict is the Pakistanis’ rejection of the extremists who stand directly opposed to the president.

In the Frontier, as expected, the people have voted wholeheartedly for a change that they believe the Awami National Party and Pakistan People’s Party Parliamentarian are capable of bringing in a life besieged by the bombers. The two factions of the Pakistan Muslim League may have won a few more seats than expected, but by all indications of realpolitik and ideology the ANP-PPPP combine should be able to form a coalition government in Peshawar. They have something to learn from the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal’s success in keeping its coalition intact until the very last, pronouncements of its early demise notwithstanding.

Simply put, the ANP and PPP should realise that they need to be in power in the Frontier to secure the province for themselves for at least a few years. With no heavyweights such as Aftab Sherpao nursing high ambitions in the PPPP’s camp this time around, a coalition may prove to be more durable than similar arrangements of the past.

The same holds true for Sindh, where, in the wake of the election results, analysts have once again been found advising the PPP and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement to rise above their differences for some kind of a working relationship. A PPP-MQM coalition in the province may have its problems and its challenges, yet, so many years down the road, it is perhaps a possibility not as distant as it was in the year 1988.

The two sides have made some friendly overtures towards each other in the recent past and the media, that has been in the forefront of the save-Pakistan campaign, is persistent in keeping Altaf Hussain’s post-poll reconciliatory message pasted on the television screen to ensure that the PPP registers it. The public, which has received a voice in the media, is desperate for stability. The PPP and MQM, like all other parties in the country, would do well to keep this in mind as they chart out their post-poll strategies for Sindh.

The PPP has done reasonably well in Balochistan, even if the PML-Q has emerged on top. The PPP may lead the anti-PML-Q group’s claim to power in this seriously isolated and long smouldering province in the federation. Given the rather low turnout – locally blamed on the sense of insecurity rather than the poll boycott by the All Pakistan Democratic Alliance — any coalition that takes charge in Quetta would be up against a challenge from the word go.

The solution for Balochistan lies as much in Balochistan as it lies in other provinces of Pakistan, especially in Punjab. True to its wont, during the election campaign the biggest province was too embroiled in its own problems to deal with the issues the smaller provinces have with it.

Punjab continues to treat Balochistan as a remote place ruled by tribal chiefs. Enough is enough. We can trust the people of Balochistan to look after themselves in their territory. Sitting in Lahore our concern should be to make their stay in Pakistan as comfortable as we can.

Lahore is abuzz with people who have come out in the open giving the Sharifs a position to make such a huge impact on future developments. The PML-N leaders say they are committed to their pre-election pledge of restoring the judiciary to its pre-Nov 3 status and they promise stability and law and order to the people. The party needs to grow in its role as an entity which cares for and respects the smaller provinces. The propensity for reconciliation it had shown in its ties with Ms Benazir Bhutto must continue and the process must embrace smaller parties and provinces – if for nothing else, for the security that its voters in Punjab demand from it.

The huge PML-N gains in Punjab and its reasonably good showing in parts of the Frontier are intrinsically tied to the party leaders’ reputation of being moderates. The Sharifs’ win surprised not only the PML-Q but also the PPP which had to be content with a second place in many of the constituencies it thought it had in its pocket. The feeling is that while the PPP has obtained a large number of seats in the national and provincial assembly in Punjab and has made advances in all other provinces and at the centre, its showing in the major cities of Punjab such as Rawalpindi, Faisalabad and Gujranwala did not quite match public expectations.

The sympathy vote that so many said the PPP would get in Punjab did not quite materialise. Many in the province don’t consider the PPP safe enough, given its ‘enlightened’ label and the heavy baggage of a past ‘tainted’ with corruption. This in spite of the fact that the party is considered to be a voice for the underprivileged by others. It suffers on account of the leadership vacuum left by the death of Ms Bhutto and is being advised to try and ensure that the parliament now elected should complete its term. This will enable the PPP to repair past damages. It could start by formulating it stance on crucial questions such as the restoration of the judiciary and identifying its leaders in all the five assemblies.

On this count – being prominently represented in all five assemblies -- the PPP never had it so good. The allies the PPP and the second largest party, the PML-N, choose for themselves from now on would to a great extent determine how reconciliatory the politics in the country will turn out to be in the near future. They have been all calling for a consensus government for some time. Now is the time.

The difficult part is how these parties maintain a balance between the people’s anti-status quo aspirations that have found such a strong expression in their vote and the need to strike a compromise with the establishment. Things would have been much easier had the patron of the PML-Q until the eve of the election were to accept the verdict for what it is – a rejection of his policies – and bow out gracefully. His continued presence leaves parties eager to have a hold on power vulnerable to deals with the establishment. It remains to be seen who bites first. With so many groups to contend with and contain each other, the choice really lies with the establishment.

DAWN - Opinion; February 20, 2008

 

[batmannow]

there is a lot to be said , but fact is that musharaf had lost his face. for the (normal pakistanis).


because of his dependence of people like MR , TARIQ AZIZ.


but still he have the chance to survive.

which is back in his magical mode, which is start listening the domestic audiance.


musharf was fully responsible what is about to happen.


same what he have done back in 1999.

pakistanis have to remmember that they are indepndent nation.

they can follow russian example, there were a lot of confussion in euorpe, and they were not to accept mr putin and the elections which mr , putin had won by hook and by crook but in the end eroupean union has to accept all of that they have to?

even the observers from EU were not allowed to moniter the presidential elections in rusia.


so musharf put a lot of stress on himself by opening the pindorabox.



musharaf accepted unjustified interference by usa.



sory for any thing which hurt any one.



there will be many who argue that, pakistan is not vetopower like russia, but still pakistan can do whatever they want.


people like mr, tariq aziz made musharaf weak.



great news for musharf , jst hered news that dr, farooq sattar stated that mqm was subjected to pre - election voilance , and a lot MQM members injured from unjustifd firing by ppp?


in SIND, SO THAT MEANS no. allaince for long time?

 

[mujahideen]

PML-N may support PPPP on PM: Nawaz

LAHORE: Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) chief Mian Nawaz Sharif said on Wednesday that his party could support a Pakistan People’s Party Parliamentarians (PPPP) candidate for prime minister.

The PPPP had the highest number of seats in the National Assembly, he told reporters, and the prime ministerial slot was their prerogative.

He said that a final decision on the candidate would be made with consensus among the allies, and his party’s Central Working Committee would discuss the issue in a meeting scheduled for Thursday. Nawaz said the independent candidates should support the democratic forces and asked President Pervez Musharraf to resign after what he called the people’s verdict against dictatorship.

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan