Egyptian government source: the technical path to the negotiations of the Dam Al Nahda became "dead"

[The SC]

An Egyptian government source revealed that the technical path to the negotiations of the Ethiopian Renaissance dam has become "dead", pointing out that all diplomatic and political moves are being considered to guarantee Egyptian rights in the Nile waters.

The source, who preferred not to be named, told Al-Shorouq newspaper that the Egyptian right to water would be in accordance with the principles of international law.

He said that the political administration began intensive moves on the political, diplomatic and legal tracks to protect the Egyptian interests in the Nile waters after successive failures of the technical track and the diminishing reliability of it as a path to resolve differences with Ethiopia and Sudan on the dam.

He pointed out that these moves began with the reference of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to the issue in his speech to the General Assembly of the United Nations, which stressed the commitment of Egypt to international law in the issue of the dam in accordance with the principles of good faith and confidence.

The source added that there is almost complete consensus within the Egyptian team that supervises the file that it is not possible to wait for the results of the technical committee meetings or to expect any fruitful results to be reached to agree on the Egyptian concerns regarding the storage and operation of the dam.

https://ar.rt.com/jb2e

 

[EgyptianAmerican]

An Egyptian government source revealed that the technical path to the negotiations of the Ethiopian Renaissance dam has become "dead", pointing out that all diplomatic and political moves are being considered to guarantee Egyptian rights in the Nile waters.

The source, who preferred not to be named, told Al-Shorouq newspaper that the Egyptian right to water would be in accordance with the principles of international law.

He said that the political administration began intensive moves on the political, diplomatic and legal tracks to protect the Egyptian interests in the Nile waters after successive failures of the technical track and the diminishing reliability of it as a path to resolve differences with Ethiopia and Sudan on the dam.

He pointed out that these moves began with the reference of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to the issue in his speech to the General Assembly of the United Nations, which stressed the commitment of Egypt to international law in the issue of the dam in accordance with the principles of good faith and confidence.

The source added that there is almost complete consensus within the Egyptian team that supervises the file that it is not possible to wait for the results of the technical committee meetings or to expect any fruitful results to be reached to agree on the Egyptian concerns regarding the storage and operation of the dam.

https://ar.rt.com/jb2e

So... are we going to war or not? I want to see that dam go up in smoke.

 

[The SC]

So... are we going to war or not? I want to see that dam go up in smoke.

I don't think so for now.. but all options are on the table..some political, diplomatic and legal doors are still open to gain more international support before any drastic measures are taken.. Sissi won't even meet with the Ethiopian president in NY as it was usual before on different occasions!!!

 

[Gomig-21]

So... are we going to war or not? I want to see that dam go up in smoke.

lol, that was good.

It really would be tough to make that decision within the year or next because we know how war can set a country's economy back in a bad way, and with the way things are rapidly improving in Egypt it would be a shame to see all of that great prospect and work and achievements impacted. The other challenge would be to limit the attack to a quick strike that's not too burdensome and that wouldn't have negative repercussions from the international community. Going in unilaterally would be almost suicidal. The UN would condemn it and the majority of countries would join in and Egypt would suffer the brunt of possible sanctions and isolation.

The trick would be to have an understanding with the US and the big, global players that "IF" a military option was to be considered, that they would be supportive of it. That would also have to be done behind very tightly closed doors as to not leak out any clues.

And if they decide to do it, they need to pick a time frame that is sooner rather than later before it becomes much more difficult to destroy. Near completion would add the dam's strength. There's also a little bit of a concern over a potentially advanced air defense system put in place by them, which would make it tougher although current Ethiopian air defense system might not be a big hurdle to overcome. The strength of the dam and the ability to destroy it enough would be the biggest concern. That level of destruction needs to be huge, to the point where it would be either very difficult or almost impossible to rebuild. A hole or a few cinder blocks blown out of it would hardly do the job.

It's a tough position considering the difficulty and all the implications mentioned.

But, IF they have no choice and a diplomatic solution can't be reached, naturally the Rafales would be the best choice for a strike mission like this. Either the new naval base in Eritrea can be used or the UAE one or Saudiya might be other options. Will need to attack from as close as possible, primarily to avert any fueling issues, among other concerns.

A total of 9 Rafales can take care of this. Take off from Hurghada and fly south to Nora Island (or either of the other bases) right at nightfall. 6 to perform the initial bombing mission and another 3 to supplement while keeping escort for A2A threats from Ethiopian Su-27's. Since the Rafale is equipped with SPECTRA, it can perform this mission without too much worry of any air defenses or having to dedicate a special SEAD mission, a huge advantage in the Rafale and why it would be perfect for this.

The first 3 would be equipped with a total of 6 SCALP EG cruise missiles and 12, 500kg AASM HAMMER laser guided bombs. Each of those would also need a pair of MICA IR A2A missiles on wingtips. The other 3 equipped with a total of 6 GBU-12 Paveways and also MICA IR A2A missiles. The final 3 would be equipped with 6 500kg HAMMERS and MICA EMs and IRs to deal with any Ethiopian air threats and also be the final strike.

Start the mission 2 hours before sunrise that same night so there's less chance of discovering what's going on and losing the element of surprise. Once the first 3 get to within 300km, launch all 6 SCALP cruise missiles in sequence with a maximum of 10-15 seconds between each one. Target the specific location(s) on the dam that would create the most destruction to cripple it. Maybe an area that hasn't been totally finished that would compromise the dam's integrity and open up the water flow and the dam's operation center. Once the SCALPs have been launched, loop back and return to trail the 2nd group of Rafales which would be on their way. The next 3 follow and time their approach shortly after the SCALPs have made contact with the target and follow through with all 12 GBU Paveways. Assess the damage and then return to base while issuing a damage report. The first set of Rafales (having already looped and now trailing the 2nd group) strike shortly after and target the dike with the AASM HAMMERs. Damage the dike enough to allow all the water that's held back to flow out and into the dam to rush it and erode/overwhelm any standing rubble that might still be holding. The overflow from the dike should finish off any remaining structure that's been hit and could still be holding. If need be, depending on the initial report, if the dam still needs more pounding, disperse that batch of AASMs between the dike and the dam. The 3rd group of 3 Rafales (if there hasn't been any Ethiopian air threat) to follow immediately and drop all 6 Hammers on the dam to complete its destruction. Assess and return to base. Won't be easy and will cost a lot of money for the mission (and munitions), but would be the best available option.

Prior to the mission, move the 242nd Tactical Fighter Wing squadrons of F-16C & Ds from the 68th and 70th stationed at Beni Sueif to Aswan and have them on full alert with AIM-7's and AIM-9's in case of any retaliation from either Sudanese MiG-29's or even Ethiopian Su-27 that might find their way to the southern border of Egypt. That threat would need to be taken seriously while keeping a battery of S-300VM near the Aswan dam.

Appeal to the UN to initiate a solution to the damn that would work for both, Egypt and Ethiopia.

 

[Thəorətic Muslim]

A total of 9 Rafales can take care of this.

You talk as if you can put a pilot in a plane with just 10 hours of training. These aren't MiG19 or 21s.

 

[Gomig-21]

You talk as if you can put a pilot in a plane with just 10 hours of training. These aren't MiG19 or 21s.

What are you basing the "10 hours of training" on? There's currently 11 Rafales in the EAF and they've already performed strike missions in Libya. Besides, if needed, this would be done within a year +/-. I don't think it's impossible and am certainly not assuming it would be easy.

Given the length and history of this dam situation, it wouldn't be far fetched to think they've been addressing a very similar option and preparing for it for quite some time.

 

[The SC]

What are you basing the "10 hours of training" on? There's currently 11 Rafales in the EAF and they've already performed strike missions in Libya. Besides, if needed, this would be done within a year +/-. I don't think it's impossible and am certainly not assuming it would be easy.

Given the length and history of this dam situation, it wouldn't be far fetched to think they've been addressing a very similar option and preparing for it for quite some time.

These matters have been under consideration for a very long time now, Mubarak himself said he would destroy the DAM if Egyptian people are threatened..This is an existential matter for Egypt, all the latter wants is to keep its fair share of the Nile water as was agreed upon in many international agreements.. crossing that line means a declaration of war, nothing less..

 

[Thəorətic Muslim]

Given the length and history of this dam situation, it wouldn't be far fetched to think they've been addressing a very similar option and preparing for it for quite some time.

Has Egypt won over China & Italy or the hundreds of corporations that bought bonds financing the dam?

There are more than a dozen different nationalities at this site. Last I read was around the clock shifts.

Even Sudan is unsure of Egypt's aggressive stance.

And once the dam is completed, attacking it will be a war crime. ~70% of it is complete...

 

[Gomig-21]

Has Egypt won over China & Italy or the hundreds of corporations that bought bonds financing the dam?

By the same token, did China or Italy or any of the other investors take the impact of the dam on Egypt's well-being into consideration?

Things like that should be taken into account up to a certain extent, but should never be a major consideration when one's population is at risk. Which is worth more and is much more valuable?

There are more than a dozen different nationalities at this site. Last I read was around the clock shifts.

True, but collateral damage is almost always guaranteed to be a consequence of war.
If the attacks are executed with the precision that are afforded by the available mentioned munitions, then the damage should be relegated to the dam itself and loss of lives minimized as much as possible.

Can't afford to give out warnings and time to evacuate since that would compromise the mission.

And once the dam is completed, attacking it will be a war crime. ~70% of it is complete...

A war crime? I think it would be an act of war regardless if the dam is completed or not. Either way, tell that to the Israelis when they took out Iraq's nuclear power plant in 1981, just a few weeks before it was completed. That hardly had the immediate threat to Israel that this dam poses to Egypt. Are the standards different for Egypt?

Let me ask you, if you were in Egypt's position and negotiations are "dead," what would you do?

 

[Thəorətic Muslim]

By the same token, did China or Italy or any of the other investors take the impact of the dam on Egypt's well-being into consideration?
Things like that should be taken into account up to a certain extent, but should never be a major consideration when one's population is at risk. Which is worth more and is much more valuable?
True, but collateral damage is almost always guaranteed to be a consequence of war.
If the attacks are executed with the precision that are afforded by the available mentioned munitions, then the damage should be relegated to the dam itself and loss of lives minimized as much as possible.
Can't afford to give out warnings and time to evacuate since that would compromise the mission.
A war crime? I think it would be an act of war regardless if the dam is completed or not. Either way, tell that to the Israelis when they took out Iraq's nuclear power plant in 1981, just a few weeks before it was completed. That hardly had the immediate threat to Israel that this dam poses to Egypt. Are the standards different for Egypt?
Let me ask you, if you were in Egypt's position and negotiations are "dead," what would you do?

No one cares about someone else's national interests. I invest because I see a good deal.

When Egypt demands 90% of the water from the Nile it's hard to feel for it. Research is looking at less ~3% impact on Egypt's electrical supply. Lengthen the life of dams downstream.

Attacking water sources or supply is a war crime.

Egypt has rights to it's fair share, if those rights are infringed it has a case in the international court. Otherwise any military action is an act of war that will meet Egypt with condemnation. Having a rich arab sheikh by your side isn't enough when so much of your economy depends on tourism, tourists who are increasingly social justice warriors.

Egyptians would have been better served to look towards financing economic opportunities and eliminating corruption and wastes in the means of production. Over loans to project power. Not much faith in the Peace-deal?

Ironically the greatest sources of water loss to the Nile is within Egypt itself.

If you can overlook the author of this article it's worth a read.
http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2014/2/egypt-disputes-ethiopiarenaissancedam.html


Lets get to the crux of this, Egypt isn't going to take this to any international court because other upstream nations would challenge treaties they bound themselves due to colonial history. Where the British Colonial authorities effectively wrote a treaty among itself, on behalf of it's Egyptian holding and upstream British African colonies. (The treaty the modern States ripped up last year or early this year?)

The Nile isn't Egyptian. It belongs to every State it passes through.

This would be a more neutral read and offers solutions to the issue that doesn't involve war/arbitration/negotiation:
http://e360.yale.edu/features/does_egypt_own_the_nile_a_battle_over_precious_water

 

[EgyptianAmerican]

When Egypt demands 90% of the water from the Nile it's hard to feel for it.

It's common sense that the country at the end of the river gets the biggest control over the water because they will be the most affected by whats happening upstream.

No one cares about someone else's national interests. I invest because I see a good deal.

China and Italy and any other should have realized that there is a HUGE chance of Egypt going to war over the Nile, not only is it the centerpiece of our nation and heritage but also one of our ONLY sources of freshwater during a time where water is getting harder and harder to come by in both Africa and the Middle East.

If Investors don't calculate the chance of your investments getting destroyed then when it happens, don't complain. There is a reason why people buy insurance.

military action is an act of war that will meet Egypt with condemnation.

Not really, I don't recall any problems with America bombing infrastructure in Iraq and Afghanistan. Arguably the dam has the potential for a way bigger impact on Egypt than the Taliban had for America.

tourists who are increasingly social justice warriors.

Yeah, that isn't a thing.

Egyptians would have been better served

Egyptians would be better served by its government when that government is defending one of their only sources of freshwater.

This isn't a matter about crap like international laws or the British empire, it's about survival and the basic need to defend the resources you have to the best of your ability. If Ethiopia wants to ignore Egypt and attempt to dehydrate millions of Egyptians than they are going to get retaliation regardless whether it's "moral" or not. Nature is centered around survival, animals fight over resources and humans are animals so it's only natural we fight over resources.

Are you Ethiopian or Sudanese my friend? Your bias is pretty obvious.

 

[Thəorətic Muslim]

It's common sense that the country at the end of the river gets the biggest control over the water because they will be the most affected by whats happening upstream.
China and Italy and any other should have realized that there is a HUGE chance of Egypt going to war over the Nile, not only is it the centerpiece of our nation and heritage but also one of our ONLY sources of freshwater during a time where water is getting harder and harder to come by in both Africa and the Middle East.
If Investors don't calculate the chance of your investments getting destroyed then when it happens, don't complain. There is a reason why people buy insurance.
Not really, I don't recall any problems with America bombing infrastructure in Iraq and Afghanistan. Arguably the dam has the potential for a way bigger impact on Egypt than the Taliban had for America.
Yeah, that isn't a thing.
Egyptians would be better served by its government when that government is defending one of their only sources of freshwater.
This isn't a matter about crap like international laws or the British empire, it's about survival and the basic need to defend the resources you have to the best of your ability. If Ethiopia wants to ignore Egypt and attempt to dehydrate millions of Egyptians than they are going to get retaliation regardless whether it's "moral" or not. Nature is centered around survival, animals fight over resources and humans are animals so it's only natural we fight over resources.
Are you Ethiopian or Sudanese my friend? Your bias is pretty obvious.

90%? Pakistan & Egypt are a lot similar, certain aspects. Pakistan has a much greater population than Egypt, even it didn't get 90%.

Investors will make sure there is no threat to their investment. This isn't a plastic toy from the dollar store. The next loan Egypt will need from the WB or IMF? China & Italy have a huge share in those institutions.

Iraq and Ethiopia are very very different countries with equally different receptions in the world. No one is going to feel bad for Ethiopia creating a reservoir from a river that passes through it but it doesn't have an right to? What? The country stunned in nutrition due to constant droughts because it continues to rely on rain rather than creating irrigation canals from the river, it ironically has no right to?

Read the link I put in, Here it is again:
http://e360.yale.edu/features/does_egypt_own_the_nile_a_battle_over_precious_water

 

[mahatir]

90%? Pakistan & Egypt are a lot similar, certain aspects. Pakistan has a much greater population than Egypt, even it didn't get 90%.

Investors will make sure there is no threat to their investment. This isn't a plastic toy from the dollar store. The next loan Egypt will need from the WB or IMF? China & Italy have a huge share in those institutions.

Iraq and Ethiopia are very very different countries with equally different receptions in the world. No one is going to feel bad for Ethiopia creating a reservoir from a river that passes through it but it doesn't have an right to? What? The country stunned in nutrition due to constant droughts because it continues to rely on rain rather than creating irrigation canals from the river, it ironically has no right to?

Read the link I put in, Here it is again:
http://e360.yale.edu/features/does_egypt_own_the_nile_a_battle_over_precious_water

Regardless of the international community reaction , the cost of going to war and saving Egypt water rights will be much lower than simply leaving this dam reduce Egypt water supply which would cripple Egypt's agriculture and economy .

Sadat said it before Egypt will only go to war for water and this policy continues . Egypt has cards under its hand to play if European union places sanctions against it , one of it to end cooperation on illegal immigration and halt negotiations regarding Israel/palestine .

A war against Ethiopia/Sudan will unite the Egyptian nation on a common cause . The international community reaction especially West will not be that great since they have no interest in Ethiopia it neither has oil or gas .

Italy by the way has major investments in Egypt especially in oil and gas , they would lose all of this if they attempt to stand by Ethiopia . you also forget the Russian side, the USA would not want to completely lose Egypt as an ally to Russia in addition to the fact USA is slowly withdrawing from Middle East .

An Egyptian government source revealed that the technical path to the negotiations of the Ethiopian Renaissance dam has become "dead", pointing out that all diplomatic and political moves are being considered to guarantee Egyptian rights in the Nile waters.

The source, who preferred not to be named, told Al-Shorouq newspaper that the Egyptian right to water would be in accordance with the principles of international law.

He said that the political administration began intensive moves on the political, diplomatic and legal tracks to protect the Egyptian interests in the Nile waters after successive failures of the technical track and the diminishing reliability of it as a path to resolve differences with Ethiopia and Sudan on the dam.

He pointed out that these moves began with the reference of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to the issue in his speech to the General Assembly of the United Nations, which stressed the commitment of Egypt to international law in the issue of the dam in accordance with the principles of good faith and confidence.

The source added that there is almost complete consensus within the Egyptian team that supervises the file that it is not possible to wait for the results of the technical committee meetings or to expect any fruitful results to be reached to agree on the Egyptian concerns regarding the storage and operation of the dam.

https://ar.rt.com/jb2e

As I expected , I told you before North Sudan is the main reason behind all of this , if they were cooperating with Egypt non of this would have happened .

Today South Sudan foreign minister visited Egypt and Head of Egyptian intelligence attended the meeting .

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsCon...ns-Kiir-stresses-to-Sisi-importance-of-b.aspx

 

[The SC]

The problem of the dam is in the period of filling it, Egypt wants twenty years, and Ethiopia want it in ten years, after which the natural water of Egypt will return to normal. There is a problem though, since it is almost impossible to transfer water to the east of Ethiopia for the very rugged mountainous terrain there. Also the dam is in the far west, hence the Dam project have become worthless.. to whom Ethiopia will supply electricity? since the first consumers were expected to be Egypt and Sudan and therefore Ethiopia has to negotiate with them.. Thus the dam became also a burned card for Israel, this is why Netanyahu went to confirm the Israeli support himself after the failure of politics and hidden support ..this is how the water war was ended.. now everything is in the open and Egypt is safe somehow, with many other water alternatives in the horizon, like the Congo river for example..

Sissi said: Nile water .. National security

And this is why: For the per capita water in Egypt, some people said 860 cubic meters, and some said 790 cubic meters, the United Nations and international sources said that the water poverty line is 1000 cubic meters of water, which means Egyptians are under the water poverty limit, in 2015 experts said it will drop to 650 cubic meters and in 2025 it will fall to 525 cubic meters!!!

The Nile is an international river, deposited in the World Bank, where quotas were agreed upon in 1929 and 1959, and until 1997, the note prepared in Ethiopia with the World Bank. Therefore, it is found that the source countries are all set to neutralize the role of the World Bank.
Because the World Bank is sympathetic to Egypt and Sudan and announced that it abides by water conventions and agreements.
So the problem is not to build dams on the river. The real problem is that they build dams with a pledge that this will not prejudice Egypt's share of the Nile water. That is, they guarantee the 84 billion cu meters share of Egypt (55.5 billion cu meters) and Sudan, other than that, they can do what they want..

 

[mahatir]

The problem of the dam is in the period of filling it, Egypt wants twenty years, and Ethiopia want it in ten years, after which the natural water of Egypt will return to normal. There is a problem though, since it is almost impossible to transfer water to the east of Ethiopia for the very rugged mountainous terrain their. Also the dam is in the far west, hence the Dam project have become worthless for those to whom Ethiopia will supply electricity; since the first consumers were expected to be Egypt and Sudan and therefore Ethiopia has to negotiate with them.. Thus the dam became a burned card for Israel, this is why Netanyahu went to confirm the Israeli support himself after the failure of politics and hidden support ..this is how the water war was ended.. now everything is in the open and Egypt is safe somehow, with many other water alternatives in the horizon, like the Congo river for example..

Bro Can you send links regarding Netenyahu confirming support for the Dam ?
What do you mean the nile war ended ?
The congo river project will take over 10 years to materialize thats if the political leadership in Egypt starts this project , besides the Sudanese government will reject it as long as the country is controlled by MB .

The only options Egypt currently is working on to increase its water resources are as follows

1) the 100,000 greenhouse project to reduce water on grown vegetables and fruits .
2) building dams and artificial lakes in the north to utilize rain water.
3) Mega waste water treatment projects to reuse sewage water , Egypt has potential to reuse 15 billion cubic meters .
4) Projects to build water destilation plants .

By the way Ethiopia wants to fill the dam over 2 years and Egypt suggested 5-10 years .