ECONOMY: India’s Forex Reserves Rise to $353 Billion: RBI

[mkb95]

Mumbai: A strengthening rupee, buoyant equity markets coupled with a fall in dollar value boosted India’s Forex reserves by $2.26 billion, experts said on Saturday. Overall, the Forex Reserves stood at $353.06 billion for the week ended October 9.
“The increase in Forex reserves can be attributed to an appreciation in rupee value and the weakening of US dollar against the major global currencies like Euro, Pound and Yen,” Anindya Banerjee, associate vice president for currency derivatives with Kotak Securities, told IANS.
“It is perceived that the appreciation in rupee value allowed the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to buy more dollars and keep rupee in a comfortable range,” Banerjee said.
The rupee had closed at 64.74 to a US dollar during the week ended October 9. The rupee gained 77 paise on a weekly basis from its previous close at 65.51 to a US dollar in the week ended October 2.
Previously, a rise in the value of gold reserves had added $827.4 million to India’s Forex kitty which swelled to $350.80 billion for the week ended October 2. The reserves had declined by $2.04 billion to $349.97 billion in the week ended September 25.
Furthermore, the data furnished by the RBI in its weekly statistical supplement showed that the foreign currency assets (FCAs) had gained by $2.22 billion to $329.51 billion in the week under review.
The FCA constitutes the largest component of India’s Forex reserves. It consists of US dollars, major non-dollar currencies, securities and bonds bought abroad.
“The dollar in the week under review, had depreciated by close to 1 percent against major global currencies. This added around $1 billion to the FCA,” Banerjee said.
The Indian reserves consist of nearly 20-25 percent of non-dollar currencies. The individual movements of these currencies against the dollar impacts the overall reserve value. Besides, currency movements, increased inflows into the equity markets supported the Forex’s upwards trajectory.
During the week ended October 9, the barometer 30-scrip sensitive index (S&P Sensex) of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), rose 858.56 points or 3.17 percent to 27,079.51 points.
The wider 50-scrip Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) too made gains during the weekly trade ended October 9. It rose 238.8 points or three percent to 8,189.70 points.
“Rising equity markets, increased inflow of foreign funds and appreciating rupee have had a positive impact on the reserves,” Hiren Sharma, senior vice president, currency advisory at Anand Rathi Financial Services, told IANS.
“RBI may have entered into the markets to stabilise the rupee. RBI is seen not to be comfortable with the rupee appreciation.”
During the week under review, the country’s gold reserves remained stagnant at $18.15 billion. The country’s gold reserves had risen by $116.5 million to $18.15 billion during the week ended October 2. The special drawing rights (SDRs) in the week under review were higher by $30.4 million at $4.07 billion.
The country’s reserve position with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) edged up by $10.5 million to $1.32 billion.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

A small true note
Indian GDP of what is published is actually 1/3rd of true number. A good solid economist of a large pvt sector bank (ranked within top 3) in a discussion with me clearly states that Indian GDP is dovided into 3 halves
1. The White GDP numbers in public estimated to be 1/3 of actual GDP
2. The black GDP outside the system of taxes in any form and has a dedicated network sophisticated (read hawala) again estimated to be almost the size of White GDP
3. The Gold GDP implying the actual gold present in indian households as savings which is saved as part of our culture in family led by Southern India which carries much more weightage. This value is in fact at times estimated to be more then White GDP as many temple trusts besides household carries a sizable quantum of gold savings as offerings by devotees.

His words were clear that point 2 cannot be incorporated into real GDP unless the system of taxes and ability of sniffing every transaction is practically possible. A way and means perhaps would be use of electronic form for every payment and stating PAN card cumber for every transaction over 5000 or 10000 thereby reducing the threshold. Also adding of transactions above the threshold per day also should need mandatory PAN number instead of present smartly making all transactions below PAN card needed limit multiple times a day
For point 3, when the time comes, Indians may provide a cushion which may enable GOI to run an economy under sever hardship for over a decade pr 2 plus easily.

The forex position looks healthy as of now. But internally we are targeting a 500 Bn plus reserves over a period of time based on sound economic fundamentals and descent growth rate every year

 

[SrNair]

A small true note
Indian GDP of what is published is actually 1/3rd of true number. A good solid economist of a large pvt sector bank (ranked within top 3) in a discussion with me clearly states that Indian GDP is dovided into 3 halves
1. The White GDP numbers in public estimated to be 1/3 of actual GDP
2. The black GDP outside the system of taxes in any form and has a dedicated network sophisticated (read hawala) again estimated to be almost the size of White GDP
3. The Gold GDP implying the actual gold present in indian households as savings which is saved as part of our culture in family led by Southern India which carries much more weightage. This value is in fact at times estimated to be more then White GDP as many temple trusts besides household carries a sizable quantum of gold savings as offerings by devotees.

His words were clear that point 2 cannot be incorporated into real GDP unless the system of taxes and ability of sniffing every transaction is practically possible. A way and means perhaps would be use of electronic form for every payment and stating PAN card cumber for every transaction over 5000 or 10000 thereby reducing the threshold. Also adding of transactions above the threshold per day also should need mandatory PAN number instead of present smartly making all transactions below PAN card needed limit multiple times a day
For point 3, when the time comes, Indians may provide a cushion which may enable GOI to run an economy under sever hardship for over a decade pr 2 plus easily.

The forex position looks healthy as of now. But internally we are targeting a 500 Bn plus reserves over a period of time based on sound economic fundamentals and descent growth rate every year

That is why the GoI is now initalizing gold monetary scheme.Dont know about its possible success.But that would be a game changer.