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Economic Hitmen of Pakistan

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1319793/economic-hitmen/
Economic hitmen


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The writer heads the independent Centre for Research and Security Studies, Islamabad and is author of Pakistan: Pivot of Hizbut Tahrir’s Global Caliphate

Explaining his rise to the top echelons of the US multinationals , John Perkins, the author of the best-seller Confessions of An Economic Hitman, talks of how corrupt rulers of smaller developing nations are ensnared in an inextricable debt trap through institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank. The crippling debt leads to financial insolvency and eventually results in compromising their sovereignty – one way or the other, says Perkins.


Are we also dealing with similar hitmen at the moment? Just juxtapose Perkin’s narrative with Pakistan’s current financial health; its net public stands over Rs18.28 trillion mark (up about 35per cent Rs13.48 trillion at the end of fiscal year 2012-13). Additionally, the federal government secured nearly $1.8 billion in fresh foreign loans over in the last quarter of 2016, pushing the foreign debt liabilities beyond $75 billion. Much more alarming; the debt servicing cost Pakistan some $6.5 billion last fiscal year, while the finance ministry data given to the IMF reckons that external debt service obligations will climb to nearly $8.4 billion during 2016-17. This does not include income on direct investment by foreigners, which adds another $3.6 billion to the burden as per projections in the IMFs 12th review. And debt servicing is likely to surge to nearly $ 10 billion a year in 2019, once the country begins repayments on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) related Chinese loans.

Should it be a cause of alarm, particularly when the government – led by the finance minister – is blowing trumpets of ‘economic turnaround’ on the back of the CPEC? Sakib Sherani, one of the noted economists, questions whether an inherently flawed GDP rate can be used as a yardstick for such chest-thumping? He concurs with the opposite narrative that links “growth in the past three years” to debt accumulation and the decline in oil prices, and “not from structural reform or a surge in private investment, and Pakistan’s overall development and socioeconomic indicators remain abysmal.”

He also rightly asks whether there is at all any link between policy effort and GDP growth? “Fixating itself on the growth in GDP also avoids focus and scrutiny of the government’s spending priorities or its taxation policies, its success or lack of in reducing poverty or corruption or strengthening institutions etc,” he says. How can the economy grow in a sustainable and inclusive way in the absence of serious and meaningful structural and taxation reforms?

The Finance Minister and his constituency – the business community are so well-aware of the issues that are stunting the real growth and blocking revenue collection. Similar questions recently echoed at a gathering of economists in Karachi, most of them centering on the absence of real reform.

Professor Dr Samina Khalil, a director at the Applied Economics Research Centre Karachi, for instance, doesn’t believe in the government narrative at all. “Pakistan is heading towards a social and economic hurricane that will cause great damage and will sweep away much of the current economy and Pakistan’s assumptions about the future,” she said. Missing reform, corruption, fiscal indiscipline and politics of patronage were some of the subjects touched upon during the gathering. All this in fact dove-tailed with what Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the IMF had said during her Pakistan in October last year.

Corruption, whether real or perceived, Panama or Bahamas, harms the conomy and foreign directe investment while honesty, transparency and accountability is the best way to address the issue, Ms Lagarde underscored during a press stake-out. She also advised Pakistan to reduce expenditure and increase revenue collection to bring down its overall debt and debt servicing. There are not many options when the country wants to address the issue of debt, she reminded the finance managers. The question here is as to whether those on top are bothered at all about sane advice? What is the incentive for reform if the ruling elites and their finance managers are able to keep the big business houses around them through the decadent system of patronage and tax holidays? This system condones and covers up corrupt practices such as over- and invoicing, through a conniving bureaucracy and businesses, who contrive and connive to evade and avoid taxes. Every body – traders, importers, exporters, vendors, hotel/restaurant owners, private hospital owners and those running the government know how to dodge taxes. That is why tax collection remains abysmal. Are they acting as economic hitmen to eventually push Pakistan into financial insolvency?

Published in The Express Tribune, February 8th, 2017.
"Corruption, whether real or perceived, Panama or Bahamas, harms the conomy and foreign directe investment..." Some one please tell this to idiot dude Imran Khan. He got blind by his greed and selfishness.
 
"Corruption, whether real or perceived, Panama or Bahamas, harms the conomy and foreign directe investment..." Some one please tell this to idiot dude Imran Khan. He got blind by his greed and selfishness.
and now this soaring debt is iks fault tum bhaag lge hawaon ki aankhon pe patti hain iss lye ke iss corruption main tumhare jeson ke bhee kise na kise tareqa se bhaag lage huwe hain we should think of our country first corruption on this scale is like cancer .
 
IMO, taking over by Military is not the solution otherwise, you would have observed as well, the so-called friends will hit us firstly with major sanctions to dent us as much as could be then also, look at the people's approach towards coup even if such step is taken in the interest of nation so all in all this is not the solution. However, while looking at the times of RS that by strengthening other institutions as well as helping them to investigate and bring forth the real facts without any pressure, is the best solution to deal with this cancer. Look at the improvements and possibility of transparency during his times that indicates as Institute can play a major role by the way of law however, still people follows these thugs due to ethnic etc affiliation. Zardari was on self-exile knowing that what's coming next yet recently visited Pakistan after RS and still people were there to welcome while NS & Co has been not just embarrassed but unveiled to the public for its crimes and loot but still, you see the crowd follows without a clue that what we are doing.

The expected reforms needs to be done through proper channel and may need some time so while looking at current developments with respect to proceedings in Courts and Public Awareness, I expect interesting and good times ahead. It is actually up-to people that have to come forward for the change and seek the right person. The real power lies with people of Pakistan that are not fully aware yet however, getting aware and soon the change is expected if the very unfortunate don't happens. The unfortunate can be counted as the masters of these thugs wouldn't let it happen like this and wouldn't like their investment go down the drain so can cause harm to transition phase by civil unrest or chaos in society through mislead and propaganda of media which is an effective tools in these times. These external forces can provoke people through different means and even ruling elite is expecting the suicide attack that they can be called political martyrs and may have an excuse in next term to fool the masses again and play a victim card so it is necessary that current Panama Case may reach its logical end and public can see that or next strategy can be planned but not before that.
I agree on most but why Dawn-leaks is being swept under the carpet
 
those who have power to stop them including coas and sc if they donot stop them will be answerable to ALLAH ALMIGHTY ALONE on the day of judgement.
 
@Stephen Cohen mia

Famous saying...jisko Allah rakhay usko kon chakhay! Pakistan sits on billions of tons of gold, copper, silver, oil and gas. these economic hit men can't do jack against us. God has already provided us with a cure to these diseases.

apnay chittask bhar dimaagh ka dahi na banao aur achi bachi bannkay so jao. chalo shabbash! :lol:
 
@Stephen Cohen mia

Famous saying...jisko Allah rakhay usko kon chakhay! Pakistan sits on billions of tons of gold, copper, silver, oil and gas. these economic hit men can't do jack against us. God has already provided us with a cure to these diseases.

apnay chittask bhar dimaagh ka dahi na banao aur achi bachi bannkay so jao. chalo shabbash! :lol:

It's the darkest before the dawn. InshaAllah Pak will be bestowed with a bold and prudent leadership soon. "As you are so you will be ruled", says a Hadis-i Sherif. I am sure the majority are decent folks. In the case of Turkey, 2000 to 2002 were the worst periods. A devastating earthquake hit. The economy got liquidated and shrank by 1/3rd overnight. Interest and inflation rates were >100%. IMF sent a "colonial governor" style finance minister who wasn't accountable to none including PM, who incidentally was in dire love with India or anything Indian. State had no money to pay it's employees. Around 100b $ were looted by the corrupt politicians, businessmen and bureaucrats. Please note that if a politician loots 1$, a corrupt bureaucrat loots 10$. Banks after banks failed. GDP shrank to 140b $. Then came 2002 November. The Muslim government of Reis Erdo'an took over. The rest is history. Bottom line: the Rahmet of Allah-u Aazimushshan wins over HIS Ezep - at the least let's keep our Iman, Ihlas, Umit and Tevekkal intact...

As for Pak, I am specifically hopeful. Why? In our local Islamic Center, I always stand at the end of the queue for the donation table. Pak guys, half of my age, donate 4 times of me...
 
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Imtiaz Gul calls himself a defence analyst. Well its certainly good to see such lot trying to be economists as well. Pakistan is so blessed with these "All-Purpose" people who can be foreign policy analysts/ defence analysts/ political analysts and economists on mintue's notice.
Bravo!
 
Lame Thread...

I do not believe in the "Economic Hitman" Thesis. Its basically an nation's own doing as pointed out by Syed Ali Haider. To believe in Economic Hitmen is to loose agency - something only cynics fall prey to.

Investment is a game of perception. Cynics never see it that way and can not do so due to their own POV. Nobody throws money around just like that unless they have either a hope for a decent return, or another objective besides monetary return. The former case would always far outnumber the latter. Creation of wealth necessarily has to focus on returns and hence investment for objectives other than a decent return necessarily has to be far smaller.

It is necessary for the Western economies to invest in growing economies, in order to get a decent return on their capital.

For Pakistanis still hoping for Army rule - I have only one word for you, which I would not mention here. Grow up guys. Have you learned nothing in the last few years? IK fandom has crashed, just like I predicted it would. Sharifs look set to return in 2018. I am not a Sharif fan and I see plenty wrong in how they conduct their politics, but I have to call it as I see it.
 
Pakistan industrial and economic policy sucks to the core and is stagnated by dubiously high taxation on imports of raw materials and machinery...and seriously poor local consumption..just a flight away..we have the economic miracle of Dubai..its a one window access to set up a factory in any of the free zones..with zero rated raw material and machinery imports..backed by a strong financial system and lending banks..enjoying high quality and security of life..none of this is accorded in Pakistan..an investor..is always at high risk of being kidnapped for ransom...


Pakistan dubious taxes have kept quality goods beyond affordability of nation..and hence why our streets, malls, and houses are full of low performance low quality junk...and a large imbalance of imports and exports...as nation has to flock to imports for anything of reasonable quality be it automobile or home appliances...if Pakistan can come down to sensible taxes..it will promote local industrial manufacturing and consumption...manufacturing in Pakistan is so expensive that a local common man can never afford a high quality product made in Pakistan..while at the same time it would be noncompetitive for export..
 

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