Doklam faceoff: Motives, stakes and what lies ahead? - Ajai Shukla

[Kinetic]

Modi wont blink,that would be the end of his image.Doval actually wanted to raise cpec use of kashmir on his upcoming china trip ,forget being just defensive on sikkim, but he was restrained to only talk about LAC ,acc to reports.

Xi cant blink either,before his reaffirming in upcoming party congress.I think we are looking at a long standoff like 1987 that lasted years.After Xi re-election in party congress and modi in 2019,i think both sides will quietly hush up the matter.

China has no win option here.If it attacks india,win or lose - it loses.
1.Even if it wins which highly doubtful due to indian defences and terrain and naval advantage - they still lose 100 billion dollar market permanently.( which almost same as OBOR investment and double that of CPEC)This market will only grow bigger.They can also kiss any future connectivity projects in the region goodbye.India will reject everything .
2.Its economy will suffer if there is a war regardless of outcome,the Indian navy is sure to sink lots of chinese shipping.
3.To dislodge India,China will have to attack.This will be bad in its position in international diplomacy.Especially due to China being export driven economy.USA could very likely respond with sanctions.Trump wanted a trade war and is unhappy on how xi fooled him regarding North korea.This would give him legitimate cover for such a move.
4.Finally and most importantly,it will ensure strategic encirclement of China.India as of yet is a swing state,with a lean towards USA and Japan,but not directly allied to them.An open war will lead to India shedding its neutral stance in its aftermath.This is a long term geopolitical blunder of the first rate,and plays directly into USA's hand.

The only reason China could attack -
1.Hoping for a very short border war,take a few patches of land.Bargain for that territory.Hope to send the message that China is still the big boy in the region and weaken Indian position in South asia amongst its smaller neighbours.

2.PLA has a short window of less than 10 years ,if it wants to fight a border war with a chance to win.India's defensive position along LAC has vastly improved from say 2007.In another 10 years our border infrastructure buildup(most important) and mountain strike corps will be fully ready.Our tactical ballistic missile(pralay) will be deployed.Artillery modernization will be complete.Apaches and Mountain fighting helicopter LCH will be deployed.India's nuclear arsenal is growing and newer ICBM class agni missiles are entering production - in 10 years they will be deployed in bulk.Also PLA is downsizing.After that it will become impossible for China to hope to win a border war with India on land.They have a 10 year window at best.

In the air the balance will remain largely the same.But in the sea,the PLAN will become a much bigger threat for IN.Right now they have almost no capability to challenge us in IOR.In 10 years that may change.

So there are a lot of factors to consider.

There is no question of Modi blinking, he will stand there strong. He is neither Nehru nor Manmohan.

India will always support Bhutan against any type of aggression.

Everything will clam down after few months but than what will happen to the Pakistani cheerleaders for China!!

 

[deckingraj]

There is no question of Modi blinking, he will stand there strong. He is neither Nehru nor Manmohan.

India will always support Bhutan against any type of aggression.

Everything will clam down after few months but than what will happen to the Pakistani cheerleaders for China!!

they will move one to some other topic....no??

 

[Kinetic]

they will move one to some other topic....no??

I think they will cry a river. Their hope and husband is china.

 

[deckingraj]

I think they will cry a river. Their hope and husband is china.

They are still..though secretly ....weren't these same champs taunting us ...about the last standoff...anyways i would not want to waste time on buffoons...

 

[#hydra#]

There is no question of Modi blinking, he will stand there strong. He is neither Nehru nor Manmohan.

India will always support Bhutan against any type of aggression.

Everything will clam down after few months but than what will happen to the Pakistani cheerleaders for China!!

I am more concerned about @ashok321

 

[Kinetic]

I am more concerned about @ashok321

That false flag will suicide.

 

[#hydra#]

That false flag will suicide.

He isn't false flagger, mostly a malayali commi,they are notoriously anti national.

 

[Kinetic]

He isn't false flagger, mostly a malayali commi,they are notoriously anti national.

I know many Malayalam commies, they are stupid ideologists but not false flags. Believe me , I am in various defence forums for last 14 years from ********************, pakdef.com, network54, keypub forum to defence.pk ..... you know, I can smell a false flag Indian from 2000 km away.

 

[#hydra#]

I know many Malayalam commies, they are stupid ideologists but not false flags. Believe me , I am in various defence forums for last 14 years from ********************, pakdef.com, network54, keypub forum to defence.pk ..... you know, I can smell a false flag Indian from 2000 km away.

This fellow @ashok321 told in another thread that he will support China in the event of war,I even quoted you in that reply. If posdibe report this guys IP to Indian officials. If he operates from our country,govt officials can take necessary action.

 

[Pakistan First]

Trade with India is not a significant consideration for the Chinese now. India positioning itself with US with that logistics agreement and recent coziness of the two leaderships (Modi-Trump) has sent a clear message to China which has decided to redefine its relationship with India and devise a strategy which addresses this increasing Indian threat.

 

[ashok321]

If India starts to boycott Chinese products China will come on it knees in one week Chinese knows it better that's why they not escalate this matter further

Chinese total export to India (3% of Chinese GDP) is less than tiny winy South Korea.

What a Hawabazi by Indians.

 

[deckingraj]

Trade with India is not a significant consideration for the Chinese now. India positioning itself with US with that logistics agreement and recent coziness of the two leaderships (Modi-Trump) has sent a clear message to China which has decided to redefine its relationship with India and devise a strategy which addresses this increasing Indian threat.

Are they(China/US) doing this to each other?? With due respect, this trade means nothing is, only a Pakistani thing....attaching trade with contentious issues is fortunately/unfortunately only your IP...

 

[SrNair]

The country that is being threatened by the change in status quo is not China or Bhutan, but India, due to the Chicken's Neck Corridor.

This entire situation is about the Chicken's Neck Corridor.

And sure, India does have genuine reasons to be sensitive about the Chicken's Neck Corridor. Which would be important if China and India were friendly countries with each other. But that's not the case, which is why China is still intent on building that road.

And it is extremely unlikely that China will stop the construction, just see what happened in the South China Sea. China is still building there as we speak.

When countries ask others to "respect their sensitivities", well this is a two-way street. And neither China nor India are interested in doing that for the other side.

War is relatively unlikely, unless India decides to use military force to stop the construction, rather than the current hand-holding human chain strategy.

And the fact that this has blown up in the media means that both sides are unlikely to back down. The fact that it is a "land-border" dispute also makes it much more dangerous, compared to sea-based disputes which are generally limited to small naval skirmishes even in the worst case scenario.

But fact is that unlike in SCS here you have some troubles .And that is not easy one .

AFAIK according to this threads ,Indian Army entered in the construction area and stopped the construction.