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Debt surge to worsen in coming years: Miftah

Kabira

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ISLAMABAD - As the International Monetary Fund recently projected that Pakistan’s external debt would surge to $103.4 billion by June 2019; the government on Friday also conceded that the country’s debt would further increase in the coming years.


Pakistan’s debt would increase in the next few years along with exports and foreign direct investment in the country, said Adviser to Prime Minister on Finance Miftah Ismail at a press conference.

He further said that “Pakistan’s economy was growing faster than our debts; therefore we need not worry about it.” Pakistan’s external debt would increase due to widening of the current account deficit, he added.

In its post-programme monitoring report, the IMF has projected that Pakistan’s external debt would increase to $103.9 billion by June 2019 from estimated level of $93.3 billion of June 2018.

Miftah claimed that the next government would not face any difficulties to return the debt , as exports would show healthy growth in the years to come. “There is no need to worry about the increasing debts because overall debt-to-GDP rate is under control,” the adviser assured.

Miftah said that Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan were $12.2 billion, whereas the government would have to pay $3 billion under debt and interest payments before June this year.

He said that the government was considering several options to raise the amount, which would be paid for debt and interest payments.

The adviser said that government would focus on fixing high economic growth target, controlling inflation rate and setting ambitious revenue targets in the budget for the next fiscal year, which would be announced on April 27, 2018.

“This year the country’s economic growth will remain at around six per cent, while during [the] next year, the growth will rise further, which will help speed up the overall business activities,” he added.

Talking about incentives in the budget, Miftah said that the government would give relief to the people especially to the civil servants by increasing their salaries according to the inflation rate.

He said that the prime minister would decide about a tax amnesty scheme in a week's time.

Miftah said that the government could not afford to give huge subsidy on the products made by the Pakistan Steel Mills (PSM).

He said that the PSM was selling its products worth Rs850 million against the cost of Rs2 billion every month, when the mills was functioning, around two and half years ago. Similarly, the total number of employees in the PSM was 10 times higher than the international practice that was why it was running in losses, Miftah said. He added, "The steel mills could not pay its gas bills.”

Miftah recalled that the federal government offered the Sindh government to buy the PSM for one rupee but the provincial government rejected the offer.

He also termed his recent statement about selling the PSM for free to whosoever settles the PIA's losses as sarcasm.

The adviser said that the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) had recently approved a plan to clear the circular debt .

The government will pay around Rs30 billion to the Independent Power Producers (IPPs), Gencos, Discos, nuclear power companies, and the Pakistan State Oil (PSO) from next week. The government will prefer to pay the IPPs on priority and they will be cleared within few weeks, he added.

“The government is reviewing the recommendations of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) regarding measures to tackle money laundering and terrorism financing,” Miftahsaid, and added that an action plan in this regard would be ready by June this year.

The government has also proposed to talk to China about a free trade agreement, in which country's local industry would be protected.

Pakistan would look for new markets in China to increase its export to the country, he said.

Miftah said that the concerns expressed by the IMF regarding the country's economy were correct, as we were already predicting higher current account deficit and external debt level.

The IMF has projected Pakistan economic growth at 5.5 per cent for the ongoing financial year as against our projection of six per cent, he remarked.

“If we achieved 5.5 per cent as projected by the IMF, it would be highest growth in last one decade,” Miftah said.

“The country is set to achieve history’s highest growth of six per cent and the lowest inflation rate, which show that the overall economy has turned around in the last five years,” the adviser said.

He defended the higher current account deficit, which had widened due to massive import of machinery for installing various energy industries of over 12,000 MW.
https://nation.com.pk/17-Mar-2018/debt-surge-to-worsen-in-coming-years-miftah
 
Miftah claimed that the next government would not face any difficulties to return the debt , as exports would show healthy growth in the years to come. “There is no need to worry about the increasing debts because overall debt-to-GDP rate is under control,” the adviser assured.

What if exports don't show any growth like in last 5 years?
 
so we have a muftah as our finance minister
 
Oh we need not worry about it.... and all this time every other economist not in the pocket of the ruling party or anyone else is crying alarm bells for nothing since the economic prophet miftah has said so.
 
Get rid of pia, Pak steel, and any other burdens on the foreign exchange reserves.
 
so we have a muftah as our finance minister

Irrespective of his political affiliation, Miftah compared to Munafiq Dar Munshi is lot better and sound. He should have been given the task from start.
 
@ziaulislam your economicc expertise please.
RAISE OUR TAX BASE.

ding ding ding, sort of

Hillary Clinton said Pakistan should make necessary reforms to increase its tax collection. “The most important step that Pakistan can take is to pass meaningful reforms that can expand its tax base,” Clinton said while talking to reporters in Brussels after the meeting . “I know how difficult it is, but it is absolutely unacceptable for those with means in Pakistan not to be doing their fair share to help their own people.” She said Pakistan must urgently mobilise its own resources and the international community can only do so much.[/QUOTE]
 
Ishaq Dollar deserves nothing but to be hanged for the economic terrorism committed by him & the rest of ganja league.
 
Could anyone please answer the following:

What composition of the import bill is Capital Equipment?

Also, what is the composition of foreign loans (i.e. foreign debt used for what purpose)?

And do we have any further external financing lined up?

From what i've briefly read, it is normal for a country to go through twin deficits during a phase of infrastructure development.
 
Ishaq Dollar deserves nothing but to be hanged for the economic terrorism committed by him & the rest of ganja league.
ishaq dar wanted pure GDP growth and increase in revenues which is good BUT WITHOUT EXPANDING BASE AND HITTING INDUSTRIAL BASE WITH TAXATION which made exports non competitive

1. revnues are important for growth and hence we need to expand tax base, one issue information, we should learn from china and india and make cashless transaction the base of economy, that is only possible with new payment system not visa/master that we have as their network is too expensive
2. current account deficit is the only shorter term challenge needs to be addressed via more incentives to exports, here i disagree with our finance secretary plan..he is right that economy should be open, but we are facing short term challenges here

ISLAMABAD: Adviser to Prime Minister on Finance, Revenue and Economic Affairs Dr Miftah Ismail said the national economy was in very good shape, and is expected to grow at a 10-year high of six per cent this year with inflation in the reasonable range of 3-4pc.

He said the tax collection by Federal Board of Revenue was also growing significantly, with both the sales and turnover increasing. He acknowledged the current account deficit was on the higher side but CPEC-related machinery imports were bottoming out as energy projects move to the completion stage.

“On the other hand, exports, foreign remittances and foreign direct investments are all growing and bringing in foreign exchange. On top of that, the government did not receive privatisation proceeds over the past many years which would start to flow from next year when the new government takes charge with full mandate,” the advisor said.

He said the country’s $12.5 billion in reserves were sufficient to meet debt repayments for the current year and dismissed that net foreign exchange reserves were in the negative as some wished to believe.
He, however, pointed out that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had a different methodology to look at Net International Reserves without taking into account its own loans.

Based on such calculations, the net foreign exchange reserves should be treated as negative $50bn based on country’s $70bn debt and $20bn total reserves but one doesn’t need to look at the absolute numbers in this case.
That, he said, was the reason that the debt limitation law talked about debt to GDP ratio and not about absolute debt numbers.

The advisor stressed that it was important that the size of the economy grows faster than debt to GDP ratio which was generally the case in Pakistan as the GDP is expected to grow by 6pc this year and 7-8pc in the coming years. “We need to maintain the right ratios and we are doing well there,” he said, adding that the external debt to GDP ratio was down from 24pc four years ago to 20.8pc now.

Miftah said singling out one indicator was also not fair, otherwise Japan’s debt was almost 120pc of GDP while many developing countries had 70-80pc debt to GDP ratios and were still doing well.

Calling the accusations of ‘artificial economic stability’ painted by former finance minister Ishaq Dar as unfair, he said the state of economy inherited by him was much worse and the improvement so far is visible to everyone.

Miftah said the health of some public sector entities was in poor shape, resulting in huge injections of public money every year that could otherwise be diverted to health, education, roads and social sectors for the public good. He justified the closure of Pakistan Steel Mills three years ago through gas supply disconnection, saying the company was consuming more than Rs2bn in the shape of cost of gas, salaries and other expenses with sales of around Rs850m, adding that its employee to production rate was 10 times greater than the rest of the world.

Responding to a question, he said the government had allocated Rs115bn tariff differential subsidy for power sector, of which Rs50-60bn had been paid, to be followed by Rs20-30bn payments by Monday next week and then Rs30bn in another 2-3 weeks. “The government was servicing circular debt parked in Power Holding Pvt Ltd through tariff while the fresh circular debt was not a big problem as a plan was already in place to ensure book entries and payments to independent power producers,” he continued.

Commenting on the upcoming budget, he said the focus would be to ensure lower inflation with high economic growth and job creation.

He conceded that the previous free trade agreement with China had some problems and hence the commerce ministry was extra-cautious to have detailed consultations with the local industry. The FBR had some reservations in terms of revenue loss over the next FTA with China but the prime minister ruled out these concerns and directed that the new arrangement should take into account the greater impact on economy in terms of which industries need to be protected or expanded rather than just the revenue.

Published in Dawn, March 17th, 2018

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govt needs to
1. plug in holes(get rid of descos, PIA, steel mills, get railway corrected, get rid of distribution networks, we can start ones that are in good health), this is equal to 400 billion rupees or half of PSDP, just doing htis can expand growth by 1-2% of gdp!
2. improve revenues, not by hitting current revenues generators but by expanding base to agriculutre and more importantly retail and service sector
3. decrease taxation on co operates more in line with compettion, it needs to come down to 20% from current 30%
4. address CAD by improving exports, rather than focusing on highly external situation dependent remittances

5. reforms in laws to make business easy, remove investment barriers, introduce cash less payment system that is cheap enough for the retail sector to adopt
6. step in with govt investment/joint ventures in novel fields where private sector lack expertise
7. open up gas blocks, mineral exploration to foreign investors just like it did thar

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what he is saying that situation is better than before

but he forgets to mention that situation is terrible now that was disastrous before...

good is relative term, is it good when compred regional players now?,NO..is it good than before YES,

we are the slowest growing econmy in the region despite with much better potential for growth due to our natural resources and position in the region
 

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