Syed1.
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Time lagayga.... 3-4 saal atleastFinally i can see forex reserves crossing 30bn$ ?
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Time lagayga.... 3-4 saal atleastFinally i can see forex reserves crossing 30bn$ ?
I pointed this out on PDF at the start of the crisis. Our exports were low (as a percentage of GDP), tourism isn't a big industry in Pakistan, our private sector debt was low, and government was focused on economic competitiveness to boost exports. Pakistan was braced for impact due to the BOP crisis before the pandemic that hurt others much more.
The hard part is now. Investing gains for future growth. Investing gains for long term growth. We done a bad job on this after previous BOP cycles. We have preferred to burn the forex and boost growth through import based consumption and head back to the IMF. We must break the cycle.
Finally i can see forex reserves crossing 30bn$ ?
If govt manages to keep this discipline than defenitelyFinally i can see forex reserves crossing 30bn$ ?
Less trade, less travel & higher remittanceThat is the worst logic I've ever seen.
Good we should appreciate the good moves and critisize the mistakes.First off, I'm no blind partisan, where this government is doing what's right, I have backed them.
Secondly, this surplus is good I agree, but we're in a covid crisis right now. Surpluses and smaller deficits are being had everywhere, quite a few countries are recording record surpluses. The reason for this is not necessarily good. It could be that exports are barely growing, while imports have decreased and their prices have fallen. Take this article as an example from Vietnam, see what experts there say about their record surplus. Also a shrinking import bill on the back of very little or no growth is a sign of concern, not something to immediately celebrate. I explained the possible dynamics behind this in this post here.
Here are some examples of me backing this PTI government when they were right on the policies needed to mitigate the current account crisis we had:
And there are even examples of me criticising the state of the economy well before the election and some policy decisions that I thought were wrong from PML. So as I said, I am no blind partisan, thanks.
Back to the subject at hand. Even so with this surplus, let's not celebrate too soon, covid crisis is not over. Our previous financial crisis might be drawing down thanks to some tough but necessary measures taken by this government, but we are not there yet. And also, our economy is not right now built to sustain surpluses. Healthy surpluses come from booming exports, not starving yourself of imports.
Any basis of your conclusion ? Fuel prices r low agreed but so are the other commodities. Prices of all the products specially textile is low. Many big garment retails chain got bankrupted in such a situation means job very well doneExports stagnant (Actually dropping) .Import reduced first crude prices ,second with curtailment of raw materials . Remittances increased due to people returning back from ME and devastating economic impact resulted in additional amount being sent .
Remittance Boom Is Turning Into a Bust for Asia Emerging Markets
so great performance
Finally i can see forex reserves crossing 30bn$ ?
If that’s the case, then I agree. However I’m not aware at this time what the breakdown is of which imports have been reduced. I assumed that it was largely just the effect of low prices and low demand.Good we should appreciate the good moves and critisize the mistakes.
Here i would like to disagree with u that reduction of import is not a good sign. The reduction of import is coming mainly on account of less imports of consumeable items. This import is slowly and gradually being replaced by local manufacturing. The goods that used to be cheaper to import then manufacture locally are now become competitive so local manufacturers are getting better profits now
At this point, any major economy except maybe China, posting a surplus is never a good sign. Unless the export grew in double digit and the import is at a state before Feb 2020. I've seen many in here jumping up and down seeing India posting a surplus after 10-20 years, but didn't realize it's the worst economic hit in 70 years mainly due to demand glut in Jewelry and oil. As soon as it's reversed the deficit went positive.However I’m not aware at this time what the breakdown is of which imports have been reduced. I assumed that it was largely just the effect of low prices and low demand.
Any basis of your conclusion ? Fuel prices r low agreed but so are the other commodities. Prices of all the products specially textile is low. Many big garment retails chain got bankrupted in such a situation means job very well done