Current account deficit may shrink to $7bn in FY19: APTMA

[ziaulislam]

And what did our "Legendary Kaptaan" do? Throw the man behind this quick improvement under the bus.

I disagree with that decision probably due to pressure from lending agencies like WB AB and IMF..they wanted a technocrat that they have worked with in the past

If unnecessary imports decrease, foreign remittance exports increase CAD is surely going to decrease, but what I would like to see is the impact of deferred payment oil facility is it incorporated or excluded?

Not started yet.secondly oil deferred payment has nothing to do with CAD ..its a loan which isnt counted ..all it will do will what a loan does increase your reserves

Only problem is the loan.. which we can't pay back unless we reverse the CAD. We need 5-10 billion dollars positive current account which means that if we reduce our imports by a 7-10 billion and increase exports by 7-10 billion, we will be making and overall profit of 7-10 billion USD.. enough will be available for return of loans and development projects (which will add to the GDP)..

You need structural reforms in evey sector from primary education (that drives growth), banking sector, SME, ease of doing business, taxation , and digital economy ..the work is too much and time is too little

These reforms took decades to implement in other countries but people hope IK will do it with hostile Parliament within a year..

 

[Taha Samad]

I disagree with that decision probably due to pressure from lending agencies like WB AB and IMF..they wanted a technocrat that they have worked with in the past
...
These reforms took decades to implement in other countries but people hope IK will do it with hostile Parliament within a year..

Based on the news that came out afterwards and how things are shaping up in days following the sacking, to me has more to do with internal politics of PTI. The 'Na-Ehal Tareen' as AU himself referred to in his speech in Parliament.

i) The news of AU sacking first came out while AU was in Washington to finalize IMF program at policy level. If it was WB/IMF pressure it would have happened before or after he was back, but not while he was in Washington. This timing suited those back in Pakistan who were after AU and found the field open while AU was away.
ii) News of JKT and Abraaj CEO meeting IK during same time & intro of Hafeez Sh to IK. Few are also pointing to Naeem-ul-Haq also playing a role in this.
iii) Then some news is also pointing that some time back AU and JKT had a spat over subsidy to sugar mills which Asad wanted to end.
iv) Then JKT becoming convener of the committee that will advise IK on economy.
v) Ch. Sarwar somewhat complaining about growing interference of JKT. And Sarwar also complained that news of his sacking was aired while he was out the country(same modus operandi)

Leave public aside it appears Khan himself has been convinced that economy can be turned around in 8 months. Otherwise why would you sack one of the better performing ministers. Even if a technocrat was required; AU could have been complimented with Hafeez Sheikh; but sacking means he was convinced by his other advisers that Asad isn't performing at all.

Now that IK is surrounded by likes of JKT & Naeem any hope of a long term policy is fast diminishing. Mafias that always prevailed may prevail again.