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Could Afghanistan be the next Iraq?

Zarvan

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June 25th, 2014
03:32 PM ET
By Claire Calzonetti, CNN
Could Afghanistan be the next Iraq?
“If you think about what the lessons of Iraq are, I hope that every Afghan is sitting in the evening thinking clearly about the lessons of Iraq,” Marc Grossman – the former U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan – told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour.
The violence rocking Kabul and other parts of the country – with another four killed today, and 27 dead since summer offensive began – raises the harsh specter of an Iraq-like disaster once U.S. and NATO forces pull out at the end of the year.
No one knows the pitfalls and the possibilities better than former ambassador Marc Grossman, who was the Obama Administration's point man in some of the toughest yet vital peace negotiations
The Administration's confident claim that Iraqi security forces were ready to take over in December 2011 was thrown into doubt when they fled the ISIS onslaught two weeks ago.
Should Afghanistan have any more faith in their U.S. trained forces being strong enough to stand up alone?
Of course, Iraq’s problem was compounded by its hopelessly sectarian political leadership. In Afghanistan, the hope for a successful transition rests largely on a successful election, but even that's not going according to plan.
After a successful first round, in which he got most votes, presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah dropped out of the race in protest, accusing opponent Ashraf Ghani's camp and the electoral commission of fraud in the second round.
One commission member has resigned, and Abdullah is considering jumping back in.
But the stakes could not be higher, as an emboldened Taliban steps up attacks ahead of international forces pulling out.
Click above to watch Amanpour’s full interview with Grossman.
Could Afghanistan be the next Iraq? – Amanpour - CNN.com Blogs


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The Pashtuns of Afghanistan run the risk of being isolated against IRAN, INDIA and NORTHERN ALLIANCE. They need to ally with Pakistan after the NATO FORCES leave Afghanistan.
 
ISIS could only emerge, quite a time after complete complete American withdrawl. I assume they gained their combat experience during battles against syrian army.
On the other hand taliban are fighting as a resistance group for last 11 years. They have combat experience, not from Asad regime, but NATO. They are more stable than ISI, has battle commanders of each region, shadow governors and a shura. In the initial years during their resistance against NATO, the movement was very disorganized, choatic and full of criminals and out of control rogue elements but now they have some degree of check and balance, though the organization still operates from bottom to top.
Unlike Iraq, most of the soldiers in ANA come from martial communities, many served under warlords. The situation would be more like 90s, the bloodshedd and losses would be greater on both sides. Infact taliban will have no backing from public, that they enjoyed in 90s due to public's hate for warlords. Moreover pakistan wont supply them huge numbers of madrassa fighters and arms & amunitions, like she did in 90s. But on the other hand, Afghan taliban now have battle-hardened pakistani taliban. Mullah omar would simply ask pak taliban to join them in establishing emirate in Afghanistan.
 
Before, people thought the Afghanistan situation was far worse.

Now they think Iraq is worse?

When you invade a country and leave a power vacuum, that vacuum is going to be filled one way or another.
Hence why people were angry when US left abruptly....surprisingly they didnt do the same in Afghan...prob the opium keeps them attached :unsure:
 
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