While we are having a lockdown but as I work in the financial services industry so I have to show up to work in Federal ISB area daily. My comments are from what I am observing.
Defence sector. Won't specify but those sites that can be cut off, have been cut off from outside so they are not affected.
Manufacturing Industry. Some of our customers from manufacturing sector are already asking for rescheduling of long term loans on account of SBP's offer to do the same. Some of which is based on real impact on their cashflows while the rest is just rent seeking which will crowd out funds from smaller SMEs that need the fund most.
Pakistan has a road centric transport network. Majority of the labor uses public transport. Production in at least 2 industrial areas that I know off has been impacted because the labor can't come.
Even I have to start using my car to show up to work daily because SWVL/Metro buses e.t.c are closed.
Local mom&pop stores have been closed. Only few larger stores and medicine shops are open.
This lockdown is not sustainable because a majority of our economy is based on informal sector. Labor/daily wagers are going hungry.
I saw daily wagers on my route to work sitting beside the road even though we are supposed to be in a lockdown.
The good thing is that private charity has increased because we all know the stakes. Army/NDMA is involved to have a joint effort in order to eliminate red tape and put "wheels" on files and to reduce any chance overallocation of resources so that critical resources are not hoarded (with the exception of sindh, they too will fall in line eventually).
Long term impact of this virus will be a revamp of the health sector, innovation (NUST e.t.c are already working on cheaper ventilator tech, testing kits while our rent seeking industries are asking for rebate from govt) and alignment of capital for allocation into new industries.
Greater number of companies are now thinking about remote work. In longer term we will see elimination of more brick and mortar businesses if they have to survive such black swan events.
The only possible strategy for now is using middle of the ground route. Quarantine only those areas that are affected more. Reduce cross border movement and open all the industries gradually.
We can't save everyone unfortunately. We will be seeing a second outbreak and then the third.
We can only manage reduction in casualties.
This should be a lesson to keyboard warriors on both sides of what a potential nuclear war will feel like in long term.
Thank you for your meaningful post...
