The Accountant
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WHEN WILL THE EFFECT OF C VIRUS ON OUR DAILY LIVES, BUSINESSES AND ECONOMY GOING TO END? BOTH GLOBALLY AND NATIONALLY.
IN YEARS OR JUST TWO/THREE MONTHS ?
1. We humans have lived and died of infections for millions of years, far before we invented a microscope and knew about micro-organisms. But we did know about plagues and it never stopped us going about our lives.
2. Corona is just another virus with its mortality rate not higher than other infections like pneumonia, typhoid, hepatitis, or tuberculosis etc. Its just that we have accepted them while C virus is new.
3. Decades ago, TB and hepatitis, which were really fatal, had no cure and TB too spread through cough etc. Our founding father Jinnah died of TB, millions came out to bury him, but no one locked down karachi etc or kept a daily count of number of TB patients.
So why such panic in this case when Corona is not even inherently fatal, ie it may kill only if your defence system is weak because of old age or diseases ?
ANSWER
4. Had this virus started in an African country, it wouldnt have gotten so much attention.
The problem is China and the jealousy and dislike that it evokes in the West that enjoyed status of the First World for more than a century, something that China has taken away.
Since 1997, Western media media has been unhappy about Chinese consistent 10 pc average GDP growth for 35 consecutive years. Nothing stopped china. Western media questioned validity of numbers, theft of technology, imminent collapse of banking sectors etc.
But nothing stopped the juggernaut of Chinese economy.
In the last decade alone, China overtook the size of EC economy, then Japanese and now it was just a few years away from overtaking USA and becoming the largest economy in the world. In the process, china almost completely destroyed the manufacturing base of the West.
5. Then this virus story broke and Western media, blew it out of all proportion. Under panic creates by 24/7 media coverage, all countries stopped air and land contact with china, even Russia closed it borders.
China took the beating. It put Hubei province in lock down and its economy was damaged.
6. But then came the rest of the world. Since global media was now keeping hourly counts, so many in Thailand, so many in Italy, etc., the frenzy couldn't just be stopped. So under the glare of daily media counter, Italy then France the UK and then whole of Europe and USA went into lockdown.
7. No one stopped to ask how is the entire population of USA and Europe going to ultimately die ? Some through heart problems and cancer, but mostly through infections like flu, pneumonia, and common bacterial fever.
8. If Corona virus has to monitored and cured, why not pneumonia or flu which are far bigger killer. If govts ask doctors how do we stop pneumonia, they will say lockdown, social distancing etc.
9. Every medical store is full of antibiotics. Why dont we eliminate that bug and why focus on C virus.
10. Before vaccines of chickenpox and polio virus were developed, the world didnt go into lockdown.
11. Now Western govts are realizing that the wealth that they have created over centuries of hard work is at stake.
How Is This going to end ?
11. Unless a vaccine is developed and globally infected, Virus wont end. It would be hysteria that would end. China and Europe have already peaked off. Everyone is now waiting for USA to peak off in the next 10 days.
12. Peak off means the number of NEW deaths and NEW infections coming down. Going up and up can be top news. Going down and down cant be top news for long.
Chinese govt, European and Donald Trump are desperately waiting for that tipping point. They have all worked too hard on wealth creation to let it just go waste just because of hysteria created by media. China, Europe and US presents are holding cheques of thousands of billions of dollars.
12. US is going to peak off in a week. Trump is bent upon winning elections on the basis of economic boom. He has already announced that on May 1, social distancing guidelines are going to be withdrawn. After mid May, virus story may not remain number 1 news story. When that happens, Europe, US and Chinese will rush to push aside health specialists from the centre stage, take control of the narrative and take measured but definite steps to bring back normalcy in business and commerce.
13. So in my view, May and June will be getting-normal months. August will normal. Stock markets will rebound and all western govts will do everything to get their economies and jobs back to normal.
14. Same will be the case with pakistan where govt and its media have been running a daily count of infections and deaths like Western govts and media.
15. Once the rest of the world get normal, Pakistan too will become normal.
16. So July/August will be almost normal month for us here in Pakistan. If vaccine is not available, Virus will be contained but it will stay with us just like so many other infections.
Globally and in Pakistan will there be long term scars on business and commerce? Obviously, yes.
But by June and certainly in July/August trade and commerce and business, both globally and in Pakistan, will get back to normal, as normal as they can be after this unprecedented, self-inflicted damage. Of course, it may take years for global demand-supply chains to attain the same level of efficiency and the psychological impact on societies may in some ways last for ever, we are not at the end of WWIII or a nuclear war. There is absolutely NOTHING that damaged businesses, except panicked governments' own decisions to physically close down businesses. Once media frenzy goes down and govts allow businesses to reopen, the market forces of demand and supply will unleash, recreating most of the jobs that have been lost.
(Not written by me)
IN YEARS OR JUST TWO/THREE MONTHS ?
1. We humans have lived and died of infections for millions of years, far before we invented a microscope and knew about micro-organisms. But we did know about plagues and it never stopped us going about our lives.
2. Corona is just another virus with its mortality rate not higher than other infections like pneumonia, typhoid, hepatitis, or tuberculosis etc. Its just that we have accepted them while C virus is new.
3. Decades ago, TB and hepatitis, which were really fatal, had no cure and TB too spread through cough etc. Our founding father Jinnah died of TB, millions came out to bury him, but no one locked down karachi etc or kept a daily count of number of TB patients.
So why such panic in this case when Corona is not even inherently fatal, ie it may kill only if your defence system is weak because of old age or diseases ?
ANSWER
4. Had this virus started in an African country, it wouldnt have gotten so much attention.
The problem is China and the jealousy and dislike that it evokes in the West that enjoyed status of the First World for more than a century, something that China has taken away.
Since 1997, Western media media has been unhappy about Chinese consistent 10 pc average GDP growth for 35 consecutive years. Nothing stopped china. Western media questioned validity of numbers, theft of technology, imminent collapse of banking sectors etc.
But nothing stopped the juggernaut of Chinese economy.
In the last decade alone, China overtook the size of EC economy, then Japanese and now it was just a few years away from overtaking USA and becoming the largest economy in the world. In the process, china almost completely destroyed the manufacturing base of the West.
5. Then this virus story broke and Western media, blew it out of all proportion. Under panic creates by 24/7 media coverage, all countries stopped air and land contact with china, even Russia closed it borders.
China took the beating. It put Hubei province in lock down and its economy was damaged.
6. But then came the rest of the world. Since global media was now keeping hourly counts, so many in Thailand, so many in Italy, etc., the frenzy couldn't just be stopped. So under the glare of daily media counter, Italy then France the UK and then whole of Europe and USA went into lockdown.
7. No one stopped to ask how is the entire population of USA and Europe going to ultimately die ? Some through heart problems and cancer, but mostly through infections like flu, pneumonia, and common bacterial fever.
8. If Corona virus has to monitored and cured, why not pneumonia or flu which are far bigger killer. If govts ask doctors how do we stop pneumonia, they will say lockdown, social distancing etc.
9. Every medical store is full of antibiotics. Why dont we eliminate that bug and why focus on C virus.
10. Before vaccines of chickenpox and polio virus were developed, the world didnt go into lockdown.
11. Now Western govts are realizing that the wealth that they have created over centuries of hard work is at stake.
How Is This going to end ?
11. Unless a vaccine is developed and globally infected, Virus wont end. It would be hysteria that would end. China and Europe have already peaked off. Everyone is now waiting for USA to peak off in the next 10 days.
12. Peak off means the number of NEW deaths and NEW infections coming down. Going up and up can be top news. Going down and down cant be top news for long.
Chinese govt, European and Donald Trump are desperately waiting for that tipping point. They have all worked too hard on wealth creation to let it just go waste just because of hysteria created by media. China, Europe and US presents are holding cheques of thousands of billions of dollars.
12. US is going to peak off in a week. Trump is bent upon winning elections on the basis of economic boom. He has already announced that on May 1, social distancing guidelines are going to be withdrawn. After mid May, virus story may not remain number 1 news story. When that happens, Europe, US and Chinese will rush to push aside health specialists from the centre stage, take control of the narrative and take measured but definite steps to bring back normalcy in business and commerce.
13. So in my view, May and June will be getting-normal months. August will normal. Stock markets will rebound and all western govts will do everything to get their economies and jobs back to normal.
14. Same will be the case with pakistan where govt and its media have been running a daily count of infections and deaths like Western govts and media.
15. Once the rest of the world get normal, Pakistan too will become normal.
16. So July/August will be almost normal month for us here in Pakistan. If vaccine is not available, Virus will be contained but it will stay with us just like so many other infections.
Globally and in Pakistan will there be long term scars on business and commerce? Obviously, yes.
But by June and certainly in July/August trade and commerce and business, both globally and in Pakistan, will get back to normal, as normal as they can be after this unprecedented, self-inflicted damage. Of course, it may take years for global demand-supply chains to attain the same level of efficiency and the psychological impact on societies may in some ways last for ever, we are not at the end of WWIII or a nuclear war. There is absolutely NOTHING that damaged businesses, except panicked governments' own decisions to physically close down businesses. Once media frenzy goes down and govts allow businesses to reopen, the market forces of demand and supply will unleash, recreating most of the jobs that have been lost.
(Not written by me)