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Consumer Confidence Boosts Eid Sales in Pakistan

RiazHaq

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Haq's Musings: Strong Eid Sales Confirm Nielsen's Consumer Confidence Data on Pakistan

Eid and Ramzan sales, making up over 40% of annual revenue of retailers in Pakistan, are estimated to have jumped 10-15% this year, according to early data reported in the news media.

Nielsen, a global provider of data on consumers, reports that Pakistan consumer confidence has held steady at 99 for two consecutive quarters. This compares favorably with consumer confidence figures which declined over the previous quarter in the overall Middle East/Africa region. Among the region, UAE led the way for Middle East/Africa consumer confidence with an index of 109, a decline of five points from first-quarter 2014. Egypt (81) reported a drop of six points compared to the first quarter. South Africa posted the only regional confidence increase, climbing three points to 85, and confidence held steady in Saudi Arabia (102).


Global Consumer Confidence Index Report. Source: Nielsen


More than half (56%) of Middle East/ Africa respondents in Nielsen consumer surveys viewed their personal finances in a positive light which held steady from the first quarter. In Pakistan, 59 percent of the respondents believed the state of their finances was good or excellent, up from 57 percent in the first quarter of this year.

“Pakistani consumers are generally optimistic as seen by mostly high consumer confidence scores over the last three years. However, a score of 99 in the first as well as the second quarter of this year, is the highest we’ve seen since the second quarter of 2011,” said Mustafa Moosajee, Managing Director, Nielsen Pakistan. “This reflects the overall mood in the country, especially relating to economic conditions. The economy is showing signs of recovery but macro challenges remain.”

Pakistan's Nielsen consumer confidence index of 99 is just below 100, a level that indicates optimism. Countries at or above 100 are: China (111), India (121), Indonesia (124), UAE (114), Philippines (111), Thailand (108), Brazil (106), Switzerland (104), Saudi Arabia (102), Peru (101), United States (100), Denmark (100) and New Zealand (100).

Consumer spending in Pakistan has increased at a 26 percent average pace the past three years, compared with 7.7 percent for Asia, according to data compiled by Euromonitor International, a consumer research firm. Pakistan's rising middle classconsumers in major cities like Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad are driving sales of international brand name products and services. Real estate developers and retailers are responding to it by opening new mega shopping malls such as Dolmen in Karachi and Centaurus in Islamabad.


Dolmen City, Clifton, Karachi
Here's a recent video of a CNN report on "British Brand Invasion" from Dolmen Mall in Clifton district of Karachi:


CNN Video - Breaking News Videos from CNN.com

Pakistan has continued to offer much greater upward economic and social mobility to its citizens than neighboring India over the last two decades. Since 1990, Pakistan's middle class had expanded by 36.5% and India's by only 12.8%, according to an ADB report titled "Asia's Emerging Middle Class: Past, Present And Future.



Rising consumer is good but not sufficient to boost economic growth to meet the needs of growing population. What Pakistan requires badly now is significant new investments, both foreign and domestic, to overcome the ongoing energy crisis and rejuvenate the manufacturing sector.


Haq's Musings: Strong Eid Sales Confirm Nielsen's Consumer Confidence Data on Pakistan
 
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Sir, I am glad to read a thread of yours that does not extol Musharraf somehow.

If we can keep political stability via constitutional changes in government, we can achieve and sustain at least 6-8% growth.
 
Sir, I am glad to read a thread of yours that does not extol Musharraf somehow.

If we can keep political stability via constitutional changes in government, we can achieve and sustain at least 6-8% growth.

Stability alone won't do it if governance does not substantially improve to assure investors and businesses. Pakistan needs investment of 20% of GDP to achieve 5% economic growth, a capital-to-output ratio (COR) of four

Domestic savings rate was about 18% and foreign direct investment reached $5.2 billion, or 3.5% of Pakistan's GDP. These investments fueled economic growth from 2000-2008.

Haq's Musings: Declining Investment Hurting Pakistan Economic Growth
 
Stability alone won't do it if governance does not substantially improve to assure investors and businesses. Pakistan needs investment of 20% of GDP to achieve 5% economic growth, a capital-to-output ratio (COR) of four

Domestic savings rate was about 18% and foreign direct investment reached $5.2 billion, or 3.5% of Pakistan's GDP. These investments fueled economic growth from 2000-2008.

Haq's Musings: Declining Investment Hurting Pakistan Economic Growth

Yes sir, it is a multi-faceted problem. You are right that the governance is important. But my view is that long-term stability of legitimate governments via credible on-time elections is the key. We can no longer afford steroid-based stability and growth. It does not last and makes most matters worse in the medium and long term.

There is a base level of corruption that would not be removed. Most growing economies thrive in spite of it. Stability and opportunity attracts investment. We should have both if we continue along undisturbed.
 
For readers, SBP and IBA Karachi have already been running their own CCI survey for almost 3 years now, the survey is done bi-monthly. They have recently developed a dedicated website for the survey. Here, have a look
 
Yes sir, it is a multi-faceted problem. You are right that the governance is important. But my view is that long-term stability of legitimate governments via credible on-time elections is the key. We can no longer afford steroid-based stability and growth. It does not last and makes most matters worse in the medium and long term.

There is a base level of corruption that would not be removed. Most growing economies thrive in spite of it. Stability and opportunity attracts investment. We should have both if we continue along undisturbed.

Elections alone do not confer legitimacy; good governance and performance do.

Unfortunately, good governance and performance have been lacking in Pakistan's elected political leaderships.

Haq's Musings: Civilian "Democracy" vs Military "Dictatorship" Debate in Pakistan
 
It shall come as we continue having elections on time. PPP has already paid for its performance. Next I hope PML-N would see its fortunes according to its performance. That is how it works.

Elections don't automatically make incompetent and corrupt leaders competent and honest in a country where political patronage trumps good policies.

Political patronage in fact promotes corruption and incompetence in Pakistan.


Haq's Musings: Political Patronage Trumps Public Policy in Pakistan
 
Your are partially right. It is only with recurring timely elections that we can weed out bad and/or incompetent politicians. There is no other way. History is a witness to this.

We can agree to disagree and move on.
 
Your are partially right. It is only with recurring timely elections that we can weed out bad and/or incompetent politicians. There is no other way. History is a witness to this.

We can agree to disagree and move on.

Pakistan's history is a witness to the Lost Decade of 1990s when PMLN and PPP leaders played musical chairs presiding over massive incompetence and corruption. I fear a repeat of it now with sixth year of slow growth under "democracy".

Haq's Musings: Pakistan GDP Grew Just 4.1% in 2013-14: Is it Another Lost Decade?
 
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