US endgame:
The US wants to consolidate its gains in Afghanistan. Northern Afghanistan (non-Pashtun areas) will remain under the current Karzai regime’s control, whereas the South Afghanistan (Pashtun areas) areas will stay under Taliban control. The Taliban might agree with the peace process with the US & the current Karzai regime, as they might see that the US is serious in (consolidating its gains) having a stake/presence in the region, & is not willing to flee like it did in the 90s. The US will let the Taliban rule South Afghanistan freely, but will want to destroy all the obstacles to the Karzai regime in North Afghanistan (the Haqqani network & other groups).
One must also remember that the drone program is not only active in FATA, Pakistan; but also against the insurgents (seen as the proxies of the ISI) in North & North Eastern Afghanistan (not in South Afghanistan, which is the stronghold of the Taliban) that want to overthrow the US’s puppet Karzai regime. In my opinion, the US might not see the Taliban as ISI proxies the way the Haqqani network is. I think the US believes that the Taliban can be brought to the negotiating table, & might be wriggled out of the ISI’s “sphere of influence”. The US will be willing to give the Taliban all the chances to ‘distance themselves’ from the Haqqani network & other groups in Northern Afghanistan, to cause splits in these groups & their alliance. Whether they will be successful in weakening their alliance in the future remains to be seen. But from the looks of it, their efforts have not seem to have the intended effects, keeping in light the constant scapegoating of the ISI for the failures of the NATO/US Forces/CIA in Afghanistan.
The strength of the Taliban’s “resolve” to fight the invaders (NATO, US) out off Afghanistan also remains to be seen. Only time will tell who will capitulate first. One thing is clear though: the US will not willing to give up without a fight in Afghanistan this time the way they did in the 90s.
The AfPak region has become a chessboard for the US & Pakistan to “twist each other’s arms”, to cause each other the maximum “pain” till one buckles under the pain & pressure. While the US/NATO Forces may cause tremendous “pain” to Pakistan, Pakistan is to stay in the region, & will adapt to the conditions it is subjected to. However, the US might find out in due time that their abandoning of Afghanistan in the 90s will cost them big time in their geopolitical strategic objectives in the region. The US will also realize that abandoning their “alliance” with Pakistan will only bring the endgame (which won’t be to the US’s liking) in Afghanistan closer.
Pakistan’s situation:
The Karzai regime is still under threat from the Haqqani network & other insurgent groups in Northern Afghanistan. The drone strikes are not making a difference in the WOT, yet the US is pursuing them. While the drone strikes do kill militants (& very occasionally civilians as well), they have not decreased the capability of fighters in FATA & Eastern Afghanistan, & they still attack with total impunity.
The drone strikes in other words, act as an ‘irritant’ for both the Afghan & Pakistan governments, because they have not decreased the capability of the insurgents in launching attacks in the AfPak region.
It is imperative for the Pakistan government to not appear to be siding with the insurgents against the US & NATO, & the image of the Pakistani authorities is ‘on the knife’s edge’ in the eyes of the international community. Will shooting down the drones show that Pakistan is siding with the insurgents against the US? That is the million dollar question.
But Pakistan also needs to remove the ‘irritants’ (the drone strikes campaign) if it wants a lasting solution to the violence inside the country.
The US wants to consolidate its gains in Afghanistan. Northern Afghanistan (non-Pashtun areas) will remain under the current Karzai regime’s control, whereas the South Afghanistan (Pashtun areas) areas will stay under Taliban control. The Taliban might agree with the peace process with the US & the current Karzai regime, as they might see that the US is serious in (consolidating its gains) having a stake/presence in the region, & is not willing to flee like it did in the 90s. The US will let the Taliban rule South Afghanistan freely, but will want to destroy all the obstacles to the Karzai regime in North Afghanistan (the Haqqani network & other groups).
One must also remember that the drone program is not only active in FATA, Pakistan; but also against the insurgents (seen as the proxies of the ISI) in North & North Eastern Afghanistan (not in South Afghanistan, which is the stronghold of the Taliban) that want to overthrow the US’s puppet Karzai regime. In my opinion, the US might not see the Taliban as ISI proxies the way the Haqqani network is. I think the US believes that the Taliban can be brought to the negotiating table, & might be wriggled out of the ISI’s “sphere of influence”. The US will be willing to give the Taliban all the chances to ‘distance themselves’ from the Haqqani network & other groups in Northern Afghanistan, to cause splits in these groups & their alliance. Whether they will be successful in weakening their alliance in the future remains to be seen. But from the looks of it, their efforts have not seem to have the intended effects, keeping in light the constant scapegoating of the ISI for the failures of the NATO/US Forces/CIA in Afghanistan.
The strength of the Taliban’s “resolve” to fight the invaders (NATO, US) out off Afghanistan also remains to be seen. Only time will tell who will capitulate first. One thing is clear though: the US will not willing to give up without a fight in Afghanistan this time the way they did in the 90s.
The AfPak region has become a chessboard for the US & Pakistan to “twist each other’s arms”, to cause each other the maximum “pain” till one buckles under the pain & pressure. While the US/NATO Forces may cause tremendous “pain” to Pakistan, Pakistan is to stay in the region, & will adapt to the conditions it is subjected to. However, the US might find out in due time that their abandoning of Afghanistan in the 90s will cost them big time in their geopolitical strategic objectives in the region. The US will also realize that abandoning their “alliance” with Pakistan will only bring the endgame (which won’t be to the US’s liking) in Afghanistan closer.
Pakistan’s situation:
The Karzai regime is still under threat from the Haqqani network & other insurgent groups in Northern Afghanistan. The drone strikes are not making a difference in the WOT, yet the US is pursuing them. While the drone strikes do kill militants (& very occasionally civilians as well), they have not decreased the capability of fighters in FATA & Eastern Afghanistan, & they still attack with total impunity.
The drone strikes in other words, act as an ‘irritant’ for both the Afghan & Pakistan governments, because they have not decreased the capability of the insurgents in launching attacks in the AfPak region.
It is imperative for the Pakistan government to not appear to be siding with the insurgents against the US & NATO, & the image of the Pakistani authorities is ‘on the knife’s edge’ in the eyes of the international community. Will shooting down the drones show that Pakistan is siding with the insurgents against the US? That is the million dollar question.
But Pakistan also needs to remove the ‘irritants’ (the drone strikes campaign) if it wants a lasting solution to the violence inside the country.
