CNBC: China will this year surpass the US in total retail sales for the first time

[twocents]

I think it means China GDP in normina term is greatly under-rate, perhaps China is hiding at least 30% of their GDP.
The real GDP number may even more because China is spending less and have very high saving rate.

China and US use different formulas to calculate their respective GDP. China still uses the old method wheras the US uses the new one.

 

[Dungeness]

 

[TaiShang]

He says that's one of the milestones in the larger historical context of the rise of China.

I think the significance lies in the fact that China is indeed winning the consumption and indigenous growth battle in just a few miraculous years.

This means China is not only a factory for others to come and shop and enjoy their life, but, China is making stuff for itself, for the betterment of its own people.

If there is indeed middle income trap, this is the way to break through it. I think 2019 will also be the end of another China Doom Theory, which is middle income trap.

 

[lcloo]

The Average earnings of each Chinese individual is far below Americans, what this means it that Chinese have a very large room to improve their income in future. If each of every one from China's workforce of 900 million+ get to increase their earning by USD100 each year, there would be an added USD90 billion available in their purchasing power.

We have seen the Alibaba's Single Day sale raked in USD30.8 billion in 24 hours period. This is the biggest single sales record in the world. Even discounting purchases from outside China, the domestic transactions are still mind blowing.

Whereas the American's chances to improve their personal income is restricted by the fact that they are already very high wage earner, any sharp increase in their income would cause domestic "made in America" products very expensive relative to imported product. And there is the problem of unwanted high inflation.

When China eliminated the poor income group and elevated them to lower middle income group, and the lower middle income group would further improve their income, further closing the large gap between individual's income between China and US, the simple fact that every extra one dollar spend by Chinese would generate USD1.3 billion retail sales, whereas the same for the Americans would generate USD0.3 billion retail sales.

Thus not surprising retails sales of China is overtaking the US. And almost all of the world's luxury goods retailers are looking towards China for that $$$.

 

[Khan_21]

China = 1.5 Billion
US = 300 million

That makes the US that much better despite having a 5x lesser population.

 

[CHN Bamboo]

China = 1.5 Billion

China = 1.39 Billion

 

[Khan_21]

China = 1.39 Billion

Really?thats what you took from my post? Still almost 5x lesser .

 

[CHN Bamboo]

Really?thats what you took from my post? Still almost 5x lesser .

Deviation rate reached 7.3%, I think it's necessary to remind you of accurate number of Chinese population.

 

[Khan_21]

Deviation rate reached 7.3%, I think it's necessary to remind you of accurate number of Chinese population.

And our retail market is bigger than denmark and finland. Doesnt make a difference when in reality its because of our huge population not because of our purchasing power.

 

[CHN Bamboo]

And our retail market is bigger than denmark and finland. Doesnt make a difference when in reality its because of our huge population not because of our purchasing power.

Overall purchasing power ×
Per capita purchasing power 〇

 

[Khan_21]

Overall purchasing power ×
Per capita purchasing power 〇

Yeap and that doesnt mean anything in the end. Per capita is the only thing that matters.

 

[CHN Bamboo]

Yeap and that doesnt mean anything in the end. Per capita is the only thing that matters.

I know that.
China just has a per capita GDP of about $10k.
Even ten years later, our country will just be an elementary developed country.

But this thread is talking about total retail sales, not saying that Chinese people's living standards exceed those of the United States.

 

[Dungeness]

I know that.
China just has a per capita GDP of about $10k.
Even ten years later, our country will just be an elementary developed country.

But this thread is talking about total retail sales, not saying that Chinese people's living standards exceed those of the United States.

That depends on your definition of "living standards". 2/3 of Americans can't come up with $1000 for emergency, and out-of-job for just one month, many of them would have to line up in front of food banks, btw they are federal employees.

 

[GHALIB]

Good for China

 

[lcloo]

US Economic Outlook for 2019 and beyond.

Overview
U.S. GDP growth will slow to 2.3 percent in 2019 from 3 percent in 2018. It will be 2 percent in 2020, and 1.8 percent in 2021. That's according to the most recent forecast released at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on December 19, 2018. The projected slowdown in 2019 and beyond is a side effect of the trade war, a key component of Trump's economic policies.

Want to read more?
https://www.thebalance.com/us-economic-outlook-3305669