Chinese economy called invulnerable to trade war

[terranMarine]

Just to emphasize here, I do agree with parts of this article. It is true that China was far more vulnerable in 2008, 2009, as compared to today.

Yet, China is still dependent on trade, more so than the US, especially for its exports.

A US vs China trade war would hurt both, but it would hurt China more. That is a fact.

Facts coming from an Indian should be taken with a pinch of salt

 

[qwerrty]

Well @ahojunk

So let's see some China and US specific statistics:

China's exports to the US 470 billion dollars

US exports to China: 123 billion dollars

China's exports to US as a percentage of Chinese GDP: 4.12%

US exports to China as a percentage of US GDP: 0.6%

you are forgetting large % of so-called export from China to America are American products manufactured in China

 

[ahojunk]

you are forgetting large % of so-called export from China to America are American products manufactured in China

Yes, this is correct.
Moreover, it is American products manufactured in China mostly by American owned corporations. There were no "free lunch", these corporations were taking advantage of the previously low cost of labor in China.

If trade tariffs are imposed on China, these American corporations will move their operations to Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia (or Mexico and Brazil). This is already happening with or without tariffs as the cost of Chinese labor is now higher than those in SEA. The imposition of tariffs will only speed up the process of relocating these factories to SEA.

In the past few years, China's government has been implementing "economic structural reforms". China's government looks at 20 to 50 years ahead, not just only the next election cycle. For more info on these economic structural reforms, there is a thread on this:-
https://defence.pk/threads/chinas-economy-structural-reform-progressing.463574/

So, a trade war between China and US will hurt both. It doesn't matter which of these big two will suffer more. Mark my words, there won't be a trade war. Only some small pawns will be sacrificed to give the impression that Trump is doing something.

 

[Jlaw]

[

Facts coming from an Indian should be taken with a pinch of salt

what facts? copy n paste Wikipedia is hardly factual

 

[ohmrlobalobayeh]

Just to emphasize here, I do agree with parts of this article. It is true that China was far more vulnerable in 2008, 2009, as compared to today.

Yet, China is still dependent on trade, more so than the US, especially for its exports.

A US vs China trade war would hurt both, but it would hurt China more. That is a fact.

until now, our dear bussard ramjet is still praying for the fall of China

 

[TaiShang]

Well @ahojunk , what does filth mean? Is it stating of facts, and counter opinions?

As for facts, here they are:

GDP of some top countries (According to IMF) (in millions of dollars)

1

United States 18,561,930
2

China[n 2] 11,391,619
3

Japan 4,730,300
4

Germany 3,494,900
5

United Kingdom 2,649,890
6

France 2,488,280
7

India 2,250,990
8

Italy 1,852,500
9 Brazil 1,769,600
10 Canada 1,532,340

Top Exporting Countries https://www.wikiwand.com/en/List_of_countries_by_exports


1 China $2,143,000,000,000[4] 2015 est.
2 United States $1,510,000,000,000[5] 2015 est
3 Germany $1,309,000,000,000[6] 2015 est.
4 Japan $622,000,000,000[7] 2015 est.
5 South Korea $548,800,000,000[8] 2015 est.
6 France $510,500,000,000[9] 2015 est.
7 Hong Kong $505,700,000,000[10] 2015 est.
8 Netherlands $476,500,000,000[11] 2015 est.
9 Italy $450,100,000,000[12] 2015 est.
10 United Kingdom $436,200,000,000[13] 2015 est.
11 Canada $411,000,000,000 2015 est.
12 Mexico $381,000,000,000[14] 2015 est.
13 Singapore $377,100,000,000 2015 est.
14 Russia $341,500,000,000 2015 est.
15 Taiwan $335,500,000,000 2015 est.
16 United Arab Emirates $333,300,000,000 2015 est.
17 Switzerland $303,500,000,000 2015 est.
18 Spain $277,900,000,000 2015 est.
19 India $272,400,000,000 2015 est.



Exports as a percentage of GDP for some top countries:

USA: 8.1%
China 18.4%
Japan 13.2%
Germany 37.5%
UK 16.45%
France 20.5%
India 12.1%
Italy 24.3%


One can clearly see that China depends more than the US, certainly less than some european countries, but the talk here is of a trade war between US and China.

So let's see some China and US specific statistics:

China's exports to the US 470 billion dollars

US exports to China: 123 billion dollars

China's exports to US as a percentage of Chinese GDP: 4.12%

US exports to China as a percentage of US GDP: 0.6%

You are not stating facts analytically. You lack basic analytical skills.

You are simply putting together some data from Wikipedia, which tells nothing about the dynamic situation.

The article does talk about a trend, not the status, which is decreasing vulnerability.

The stated fact is that:

1. Exports share in China's GDP is decreasing.

2. US share in China's total export is decreasing.

Which suggest that China is much less vulnerable than imagined; especially considering the fact that China is the largest FDI receiving nation in the world over the past few years.

Take into account cumulative FDI:

Currently China is a larger investor to the US than vice versa; but cumulatively, US has invested more in China. Hence, the vulnerability issue is much more complicated than putting out GDP and export numbers from Wikipedia.

And who said China's GDP is 11 trillion USD?

Your data is questionable:

Exports of goods and services (% of GDP), World Bank

 

[grey boy 2]

China Says It Will Win Trump Trade War
Jan 3, 2017 @ 02:21 PM
Kenneth Rapoza ,

China will beat the U.S. in a trade war if president-elect Donald Trump wants one.

President-elect Donald Trump accompanied by future First Lady Melania during his New Year's Eve at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida. Trump has called China a currency manipulator and has all but promised a trade war with the Chinese. (Photo by DON EMMERT/AFP/Getty Images)

The country's government newspaper, the People's Daily, reported on Tuesday that unnamed trade officials and economic advisers said the Chinese economy could withstand trade tariffs mainly because exports were no longer a driving factor for growth.

Trump has said he would slap tariffs as high as 35% on certain Chinese goods. China is a member of the World Trade Organization and would likely retaliate against unfair trade practices by the new U.S. government. What is unclear is whether the U.S. under Trump would adhere to WTO rulings on trade disputes.

Although it was not mentioned in the report, another way China could impact trade would be to allow the renmimbi to free-float. The currency is controlled by the government and not allowed to depreciate by more than around 4%. But that could change. If the U.S. slapped punitive trade tariffs on products deemed important to China's massive working-class labor market, China could weaken the currency and make it impossible for U.S. competitors to compete on price outside of the U.S.

On Dec. 29, the People's Daily surveyed over 1,500 people throughout China regarding the possibility of worsening relations under Trump. According to the poll, 79.8% said the U.S. was China's most important relationship. In second place was Russia, with only 37.2% saying the same thing.

China is clearly anxious about Trump.

The government media firm also published an op-ed on Dec. 30 that hinted to the possibilities for stronger investment ties between the two countries.

"Rather than bash China, perhaps America should learn from and work with China," read the op-ed by writer Curtis Stone. "Trump wants to spend $1 trillion on infrastructure upgrades in America to rebuild the nation and put people back to work. The problem is how to pay for it and how to do it. China knows how to fund and carry out serious infrastructure building, and deep-pocketed Chinese investors want to invest billions in America."


One way for Trump to make that happen is to count on Chinese foreign capital, which in the best case scenario is used in addition to or instead of government infrastructure loans.

China has only recently become a foreign direct investor in the U.S. It owns a number of U.S. companies today, including AMC Theaters, a nationwide chain of movie theaters.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/01/03/china-says-itll-win-trump-trade-war/#28bc71c55603

 

[ohmrlobalobayeh]

China Says It Will Win Trump Trade War
Jan 3, 2017 @ 02:21 PM
Kenneth Rapoza ,

China will beat the U.S. in a trade war if president-elect Donald Trump wants one.

President-elect Donald Trump accompanied by future First Lady Melania during his New Year's Eve at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida. Trump has called China a currency manipulator and has all but promised a trade war with the Chinese. (Photo by DON EMMERT/AFP/Getty Images)

The country's government newspaper, the People's Daily, reported on Tuesday that unnamed trade officials and economic advisers said the Chinese economy could withstand trade tariffs mainly because exports were no longer a driving factor for growth.

Trump has said he would slap tariffs as high as 35% on certain Chinese goods. China is a member of the World Trade Organization and would likely retaliate against unfair trade practices by the new U.S. government. What is unclear is whether the U.S. under Trump would adhere to WTO rulings on trade disputes.

Although it was not mentioned in the report, another way China could impact trade would be to allow the renmimbi to free-float. The currency is controlled by the government and not allowed to depreciate by more than around 4%. But that could change. If the U.S. slapped punitive trade tariffs on products deemed important to China's massive working-class labor market, China could weaken the currency and make it impossible for U.S. competitors to compete on price outside of the U.S.

On Dec. 29, the People's Daily surveyed over 1,500 people throughout China regarding the possibility of worsening relations under Trump. According to the poll, 79.8% said the U.S. was China's most important relationship. In second place was Russia, with only 37.2% saying the same thing.

China is clearly anxious about Trump.

The government media firm also published an op-ed on Dec. 30 that hinted to the possibilities for stronger investment ties between the two countries.

"Rather than bash China, perhaps America should learn from and work with China," read the op-ed by writer Curtis Stone. "Trump wants to spend $1 trillion on infrastructure upgrades in America to rebuild the nation and put people back to work. The problem is how to pay for it and how to do it. China knows how to fund and carry out serious infrastructure building, and deep-pocketed Chinese investors want to invest billions in America."


One way for Trump to make that happen is to count on Chinese foreign capital, which in the best case scenario is used in addition to or instead of government infrastructure loans.

China has only recently become a foreign direct investor in the U.S. It owns a number of U.S. companies today, including AMC Theaters, a nationwide chain of movie theaters.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/01/03/china-says-itll-win-trump-trade-war/#28bc71c55603

US to China: We will increase tariffs on your goods
China to US: You wanna play with me? Fine i will play with you- see who will last longer. 奉陪到底


This is why the West dislikes the Chinese- they are always helpless to impose their White-centric geopolitic/economic policies onto China(and maybe Russia), while subjugating and bending all other nations to their will.

China only needs to sneeze and the world's economy will feel the chill.

 

[Jlaw]

China Says It Will Win Trump Trade War
Jan 3, 2017 @ 02:21 PM
Kenneth Rapoza ,

China will beat the U.S. in a trade war if president-elect Donald Trump wants one.

President-elect Donald Trump accompanied by future First Lady Melania during his New Year's Eve at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida. Trump has called China a currency manipulator and has all but promised a trade war with the Chinese. (Photo by DON EMMERT/AFP/Getty Images)

The country's government newspaper, the People's Daily, reported on Tuesday that unnamed trade officials and economic advisers said the Chinese economy could withstand trade tariffs mainly because exports were no longer a driving factor for growth.

Trump has said he would slap tariffs as high as 35% on certain Chinese goods. China is a member of the World Trade Organization and would likely retaliate against unfair trade practices by the new U.S. government. What is unclear is whether the U.S. under Trump would adhere to WTO rulings on trade disputes.

Although it was not mentioned in the report, another way China could impact trade would be to allow the renmimbi to free-float. The currency is controlled by the government and not allowed to depreciate by more than around 4%. But that could change. If the U.S. slapped punitive trade tariffs on products deemed important to China's massive working-class labor market, China could weaken the currency and make it impossible for U.S. competitors to compete on price outside of the U.S.

On Dec. 29, the People's Daily surveyed over 1,500 people throughout China regarding the possibility of worsening relations under Trump. According to the poll, 79.8% said the U.S. was China's most important relationship. In second place was Russia, with only 37.2% saying the same thing.

China is clearly anxious about Trump.

The government media firm also published an op-ed on Dec. 30 that hinted to the possibilities for stronger investment ties between the two countries.

"Rather than bash China, perhaps America should learn from and work with China," read the op-ed by writer Curtis Stone. "Trump wants to spend $1 trillion on infrastructure upgrades in America to rebuild the nation and put people back to work. The problem is how to pay for it and how to do it. China knows how to fund and carry out serious infrastructure building, and deep-pocketed Chinese investors want to invest billions in America."


One way for Trump to make that happen is to count on Chinese foreign capital, which in the best case scenario is used in addition to or instead of government infrastructure loans.

China has only recently become a foreign direct investor in the U.S. It owns a number of U.S. companies today, including AMC Theaters, a nationwide chain of movie theaters.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/01/03/china-says-itll-win-trump-trade-war/#28bc71c55603

Trump another talking head. trump saved America 1000 jobs so far, while China created 13.5 million new jobs in 2016.

 

[TaiShang]

Trump another talking head. trump saved America 1000 jobs so far, while China created 13.5 million new jobs in 2016.

The US capitalist state-embedded elite will not give a rat's damn about the regular working Joe on the street. Trump saved 1000 jobs because he has given lots of incentives.

In a sense, he has given away more to take back less.

Smart businessman. Hope he does business with China in the same manner. After all, he is not known to be an extremely successful business decision makers. He is only good at packaging and branding even a failure as a success.

He is as tempting for China's wolf-like diplomats as the apple in front of Adam. Can't wait making use of.

 

[TaiShang]

***

Chinese trade dispute win against US sets example

(Global Times) January 05, 2017

　　Workers prepare seamless steel tubes for export to the US at a factory in Huaibei, East China's Anhui Province. File Photo: CFP

Private-owned Sichuan Dawn Precision Technology Co Ltd recently scored a victory against US anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations, setting a good example for Chinese companies that may need to handle possible trade disputes under the upcoming Trump presidency.

After US mechanical and power transmission equipment manufacturer TB Wood's Inc filed a complaint with the US International Trade Commission (USITC) to probe certain iron mechanical transfer drive components imported from China on October 28, 2015, Sichuan Dawn spent more than 386 days responding to the investigation, which could be a lesson for Chinese exporters that face similar trade disputes, Xie Longde, the company's vice president and the board secretary, told the Global Times on Wednesday.

The company, which has an annual production capacity of 20 tons of mechanical components such as sheaves and flywheels, exports to 40 countries and regions every year.

The machinery firm has recorded annual revenues of 500 million yuan ($72 million) during the last two years, but faced $284 million in duties levied by the US authority.

"Also, a single trade dispute case has an impact on the whole industry. As mandatory respondent, our company has been facing huge pressure since [the USITC] launched the probe," he noted.

From November 2015 to October 2016, the company received more than 500 pages of documents, and "every time we responded to their questionnaires, we took them very cautiously, and even set up a special group to deal with the case," Xie added.

On November 16, 2016, six USITC commissioners voted against issuing anti-dumping or countervailing duties as a result of the probe.

"While some of the charges were against individual companies, most were against whole industries. In both cases, responding to charges, even if it is by only a few companies in the industry, would likely retain some of the market share or result in slashed tariff rates," said Tu Xinquan, deputy dean at the China Institute for WTO Studies at the Beijing-based University of International Business and Economics.

Industry associations can play important roles in responding to these charges, such as organizing response efforts and sharing the costs, he said, adding that collaboration and coordination among industry players is equally important.

Tu also noted that there are shortcomings in regards to Chinese industry associations as many of them were born out of former government institutions and are somewhat less responsive to the needs of companies, compared with their foreign counterparts.

"Actively facing challenges, actively responding to charges, using laws and regulations as weapons, and protecting the rightful interests of enterprises through every way and mean is how all Chinese companies should be eyeing overseas markets," Li Xinchuang, president of the China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, told the Global Times Wednesday.

Future challenges

On Tuesday, US President-elect Donald Trump named Robert Lighthizer as his chief trade negotiator, according to Reuters.

Lighthizer was formerly part of the Reagan administration and has legally represented US steelmakers in anti-dumping and anti-subsidy cases for three decades. Lighthizer has been a harsh critic of China's trade practices, the Reuters report noted.

Tu warned that there is a spillover effect in these investigations. "When the US does it, Chinese exports that were originally headed to the US divert to other markets, which causes other countries to also start investigations against Chinese exports.

"No country is having a good time under the current world economic situation," Tu said, predicting that there will be more trade friction in 2017.

Chinese companies have to hone their ability to predict possible trade disputes, and ready concerns over intelligent property rights, product standards and modern management systems in advance, not only for those that already have business overseas but also firms that are mulling on investing in foreign markets, according to Xie.