China's weakness: the Malacca Strait

[Beidou2020]

Malacca strait is right up china's alley,it's not china's weakness but strength in future.

This is exactly what I said. Malacca strait is China’s strength.

 

[kris]

blocking trade routes means a shooting war.

there's no such thing as blocking without shooting.

when a shooting war starts, export competitiveness isn't something you need to worry about anymore.

Agreed, but trade is never discounted
Example WW2

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Agreed, but trade is never discounted
Example WW2

In WW2 almost all trade was internal i.e. Japanese wasn't trading with non Japanese, it was just Japan hauling materials from conquered lands back to Japan. Japan also had zero domestic oil and was even importing from the US. Once they got cut off they literally had no oil.

Chinese internal trade isn't affected by the strait and China produces enough oil (more than UAE) to keep the navy going indefinitely. You also can't burn crude oil directly so depending on who is attempting the blockade their oil refineries can be targeted by missiles and air power.

 

[applesauce]

Korea and Japan will get oil from USA.

Blockage of channel is disturbing to global economy in few sectors like semiconductors, rest all are not that significant

Not sure about hyperinflation part ...

China is not a significant provider of food grains so as to cause global crisis

you do realize china is like the largest trade partners of many many countries around the world? and the world largest manufacturer? practically everything you have in your modern life has some part from or is assembled in china.

and with 3.3 trillion in exports and 2.7 trillion in imports.

Thats trillions of trade gone if china stops trading and not even counting the knock on effects. this would be a world market meltdown situation. with so many goods made in china, you cannot replace them quickly or easily or cheaply, this is what will cause hyperinflation, those 300$ TVs will be 1500$, that 20,000$ car will be 50,000$ overnight and its get worse from there as the average folks purchasing power crashes, many goods will simply not be available.

even in those places where china isn't the #1 trade partner, it is #2, like the EU.

 

[kris]

you do realize china is like the largest trade partners of many many countries around the world? and the world largest manufacturer? practically everything you have in your modern life has some part from or is assembled in china.

and with 3.3 trillion in exports and 2.7 trillion in imports.

Thats trillions of trade gone if china stops trading and not even counting the knock on effects. this would be a world market meltdown situation. with so many goods made in china, you cannot replace them quickly or easily or cheaply, this is what will cause hyperinflation, those 300$ TVs will be 1500$, that 20,000$ car will be 50,000$ overnight and its get worse from there as the average folks purchasing power crashes, many goods will simply not be available.

even in those places where china isn't the #1 trade partner, it is #2, like the EU.

Very true, but what does USA care.

 

[kris]

In WW2 almost all trade was internal i.e. Japanese wasn't trading with non Japanese, it was just Japan hauling materials from conquered lands back to Japan. Japan also had zero domestic oil and was even importing from the US. Once they got cut off they literally had no oil.

Chinese internal trade isn't affected by the strait and China produces enough oil (more than UAE) to keep the navy going indefinitely. You also can't burn crude oil directly so depending on who is attempting the blockade their oil refineries can be targeted by missiles and air power.

Comparison with UAE in oil production!!
They are almost non producers.
Better than that is the oil reserves of China are huge and last almost 90 days(afaik).
Russian buffer is also there

Even these days internal trade is dependent on external trade. China imports significant amount of raw materials from outside

 

[applesauce]

Very true, but what does USA care.

did you not read anything i wrote? the us is as connected to china as every other country in the world. and a wide scale economic blockage is a nuclear option that will hurt it as much as anyone else. and even if we don't consider the economic aspects, the act of blockading isn't free militarily. china isn't iraq, and has developed a wide array of weapons for striking american ships at distance, something like the DF-21 ASBM could hit the straits from well within china itself.

so what does the us care? they care in the same way where it doesn't dare to attack even NK let alone china or russia, while happily launching wars based on lies against iraq, because it can come at great cost to itself.

 

[kris]

did you not read anything i wrote? the us is as connected to china as every other country in the world. and a wide scale economic blockage is a nuclear option that will hurt it as much as anyone else. and even if we don't consider the economic aspects, the act of blockading isn't free militarily. china isn't iraq, and has developed a wide array of weapons for striking american ships at distance, something like the DF-21 ASBM could hit the straits from well within china itself.

so what does the us care? they care in the same way where it doesn't dare to attack even NK let alone china or russia, while happily launching wars based on lies against iraq, because it can come at great cost to itself.

If USA is attacking means it has already made up it's mind.
Blockading Malacca doesn't take much effort for USA but needs a lot of effort for China. You lack any bases near it.
Blockade happens even with subs. U lack presence there
Chinese navy as on now is no competition to USN.
All this is with their allies discounted

 

[Brainsucker]

The one who will suffer most when the Malacca Straight is blockade is Singapore.

 

[applesauce]

If USA is attacking means it has already made up it's mind.
Blockading Malacca doesn't take much effort for USA but needs a lot of effort for China. You lack any bases near it.
Blockade happens even with subs. U lack presence there
Chinese navy as on now is no competition to USN.
All this is with their allies discounted

correct, IF the us attacked it would have made up its mind, it would be war already. i do not disagree.

i am saying however, that the decision to go to war is unlikely.

in additional, i had already said previously that the only one who can do this blockade is the USN as they are in fact still stronger than PLAN without PLA land support.

We're not disagreeing on much here.