China's weakness: the Malacca Strait

[Hassan Guy]

How to crash the global economy 101

 

[kris]

Who will cut China trade route? In 45 years Cold War, no trade blockage happened.
Cutting the trade route means total war with China, which has thousands of nukes.

Last but not least, to those who lack of education of geography, here is my free education for you.

Adding a few thousands of miles on the sea route cost billions of dollars, I guess China can afford it. But I am not sure those countries can afford thousands of nukes.

View attachment 812116

Except long route around Australia every route is narrow and can be blocked easily.

Blocking trade routes makes it very costly for China making their products uncompetitive for that period

 

[vi-va]

Except long route around Australia every route is narrow and can be blocked easily.

Blocking trade routes makes it very costly for China making their products uncompetitive for that period

You wasted my free geography education.

Lombok strait is wide and deep, adding only a few thousands of miles, which is nothing to the sea route cost.

Australia dare not to block China sea route, Australia top one trading partner is China, so you mean Australia blocked her own trading?

Australia don't have a meaningful navy versus China.

 

[GumNaam]

You wasted my free geography education.

Lombok strait is wide and deep, adding only a few thousands of miles, which is nothing to the sea route cost.

Australia dare not to block China sea route, Australia top one trading partner is China, so you mean Australia blocked her own trading?

Australia don't have a meaningful navy versus China.

 

[vi-va]

That one is famous and hilarious.

 

[Beidou2020]

Malacca Straits is a dilemma to the rest of the world that depends on China for goods. When you are the factory to the world, you control the global economy.

 

[kris]

You wasted my free geography education.

Lombok strait is wide and deep, adding only a few thousands of miles, which is nothing to the sea route cost.

Australia dare not to block China sea route, Australia top one trading partner is China, so you mean Australia blocked her own trading?

Australia don't have a meaningful navy versus China.

1. Other naval forces (ex. USA) can easily block Chinese vessels at around these areas. Even chinese navy can't exert its presence at such long distance for long
2. Delay in transport also causes their industries to suffer.

 

[lcloo]

This is why SEATO was formed and partly why Vietnam was invaded.
But this is old news, as Vietnam has beaten the US out and now China has the backing of Russia, Pakistan and Central Asia, there's no worry for this.

China's long-term strategy has bore fruit.

And SEATO is dead long long time ago. The successor would be AUKUS but no South East Asian country is included in AUKUS, there is simply no mutual trusts.

 

[MajesticPug]

Who will cut China trade route? In 45 years Cold War, no trade blockage happened.
Cutting the trade route means total war with China, which has thousands of nukes.

Last but not least, to those who lack of education of geography, here is my free education for you.

Adding a few thousands of miles on the sea route cost billions of dollars, I guess China can afford it. But I am not sure those countries can afford thousands of nukes.

View attachment 812116

It means War, but not nuclear war. I do not think blocking off the MP is off the American planners' table so do not be unprepared. Why do you think China needs its 055 and aircraft carriers, CPEC in Pakistan, and long rail lines into Europe and ME? Both American and Chinese planners have this in mind and leverage to lesser its damages are implemented and counter measures to defeat such leverages are being carried out. What do you think the QUAD and the recent revolution attempt in Kazakhstan are for?

 

[applesauce]

1. Other naval forces (ex. USA) can easily block Chinese vessels at around these areas. Even chinese navy can't exert its presence at such long distance for long
2. Delay in transport also causes their industries to suffer.

not "other naval forces". only the usn potentially can. no one else even has a chance. PLAN puts nearly an entire italian navy's worth of ships in to the water every year.

but that means killing off trade to and from there for everyone else as well (japan and korea can say goodbye to their oil imports as well). there is simply no way for the us to systematically check every ship for chinese cargo due to the shear volume of traffic there.

never mind that many countries actually depend on trade with china.

this strait isn't just china's weakness, its everyone's weakness.

in addition. china absolutely can exert its naval presence there on a more or less permanent basis. china maintains a permanent naval presence in the gulf of aden showing it can have long range presence. and now with the SCS island bases, its supply bases is much closer to the straits as well.

and the only reason i say the usn can potentially block it is because on the whole, the usn is stronger and could defeat a chinese naval task force when the latter is away from land support. if someone like the royal navy tried, they would be on the bottom of the ocean soon enough.

and yes, delays in transport does affect industries. but remember this is everyone's industry. usn blocking the straits will mean us citizens get to enjoy hyperinflation.



TL;DR yes the USN could block the straits, china will be hurt but so will the US and everyone else weaker will suffer 10x worse.

 

[kris]

not "other naval forces". only the usn potentially can. no one else even has a chance. PLAN puts nearly an entire italian navy's worth of ships in to the water every year.

but that means killing off trade to and from there for everyone else as well (japan and korea can say goodbye to their oil imports as well). there is simply no way for the us to systematically check every ship for chinese cargo due to the shear volume of traffic there.

never mind that many countries actually depend on trade with china.

this strait isn't just china's weakness, its everyone's weakness.

in addition. china absolutely can exert its naval presence there on a more or less permanent basis. china maintains a permanent naval presence in the gulf of aden showing it can have long range presence. and now with the SCS island bases, its supply bases is much closer to the straits as well.

and the only reason i say the usn can potentially block it is because on the whole, the usn is stronger and could defeat a chinese naval task force when the latter is away from land support. if someone like the royal navy tried, they would be on the bottom of the ocean soon enough.

and yes, delays in transport does affect industries. but remember this is everyone's industry. usn blocking the straits will mean us citizens get to enjoy hyperinflation.



TL;DR yes the USN could block the straits, china will be hurt but so will the US and everyone else weaker will suffer 10x worse.

Korea and Japan will get oil from USA.

Blockage of channel is disturbing to global economy in few sectors like semiconductors, rest all are not that significant

Not sure about hyperinflation part ...

China is not a significant provider of food grains so as to cause global crisis

 

[Falconless]

China should use Pakistani route more and more. This will benefit both Pakistan and China as Pakistan will be able to get more business and develop itself whereas China will develop Xinjiang.


And in order to provide more security, China should help strengthen Pakistani navy so that they are at least a challenge to Indian navy. China can also have presence in Arabian sea with refueling in Gwadar.

KKH can’t replace a container ship with 50,000 containers on it. I doubt we can even get 10,000 trucks a year up that route given how it’s blocked for 8 months due to the extreme environment its located in.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Except long route around Australia every route is narrow and can be blocked easily.

Blocking trade routes makes it very costly for China making their products uncompetitive for that period

blocking trade routes means a shooting war.

there's no such thing as blocking without shooting.

when a shooting war starts, export competitiveness isn't something you need to worry about anymore.

 

[SIPRA]

blocking trade routes means a shooting war.

there's no such thing as blocking without shooting.

when a shooting war starts, export competitiveness isn't something you need to worry about anymore.

The poster, to whom you are responding, thinks that Chinese commercial vessels would be blocked, by force, and they would be comfortably sitting in their offices, smoking cigars, and thinking of marketing competitiveness.

 

[Leishangthem]

Malacca strait is right up china's alley,it's not china's weakness but strength in future.