China’s SWIFT alternative may undercut US sanctions

[etylo]

Putin will give the fate of his country into the hands of chinese communists. That’s the most ironic thing in history.


NATO is a defense treaty there is zero threat to Russia. Only most delusional people believe Estonia will attack Russia. Putin thinks himself to make his country relevant.

putin just be angry because nobody in Europe takes him seriously only sees Russia as a gas station. Nothing else.

Yeah，talk about why then NATO invaded Yugoslavia and Afghanistan, a defensive organization ? A joke.

 

[vizier]

Some countries would use both. Even after nuclear deal and swift is open again Iran cant go only swift for example. Just like China alienating Russia will have long term effects. After several years trump can return again who bombed their general with no excuse for example. In that case of measures Iran would be left alone both by Russia and currently western countries showing goodwill for peacedeal would be hesitant as well. So it will use both Swift and Russian/Chinese alternatives to repair its 20+ years of economic damage. Several years time putin may not be reelected or resign or China would use soft power over putin to keep him in check so Russia can return back to normal. That is if situation gets more tense and swift sanctions take place.

 

[casual]

I expect Putin will intentionally curb oil supply to the market in order to make oil price still high (and it lets to expensive gas price will likely to stay at current price as well ). If oil supply is overwhelming the market and the price is drop, it is easier to USA and NATO to sanction Russia energy sector.

Russia has good power in OPEC + and so far Saudi also dont want the current price to drop. Both of these influential oil exporter in OPEC + group will try to keep oil supply at a rate where it can hold the price of oil at 80-100 USD per barrel.

They will make adjustment if Iran nuclear deal negotiation let Iran to freely export oil and gas again

US and NATO can sanction Russian energy sells to Europe but not China. Chinese purchases of Iranian oil proves this. The only limiting factor is pipline capacity. Sanctions of Russian energy really hurts Europe more than Russia at this point. Western nations have been dipping into their strategic reserves since last Nov and they don't have much left atm.
Any western sanction on Russia will probably be crafted in a way to allow it to keep exporting oil.

 

[Viet]

Yeah，talk about why then NATO invaded Yugoslavia and Afghanistan, a defensive organization ? A joke.

You forget it was Osama bin laden attack on the US, declaring war on the US? The US then invoked article 5.
In any case Russia holds the largest nuclear stockpile who on earth will attack? The total US army in Western Europe is 30,000 men. A threat of NATO out of Ukraine is only in Putin weird imagination.

 

[Song Hong]

I expect Putin will intentionally curb oil supply to the market in order to make oil price still high (and it lets to expensive gas price will likely to stay at current price as well ). If oil supply is overwhelming the market and the price is drop, it is easier to USA and NATO to sanction Russia energy sector.

Russia has good power in OPEC + and so far Saudi also dont want the current price to drop. Both of these influential oil exporter in OPEC + group will try to keep oil supply at a rate where it can hold the price of oil at 80-100 USD per barrel.

They will make adjustment if Iran nuclear deal negotiation let Iran to freely export oil and gas again

Russia is under sanction and she cant sell anyone other than China. Since Russia cannot trade in open market, she has no control of oil price now.

But China will be buying more Russian stuff and keep it afloat.

Recently Russia is become one of world largest food exporter (USSR still need to import food), I guess China may buy from Russia and dump Australia/USA.

 

[etylo]

You forget it was Osama bin laden attack on the US, declaring war on the US? The US then invoked article 5.
In any case Russia holds the largest nuclear stockpile who on earth will attack? The total US army in Western Europe is 30,000 men. A threat of NATO out of Ukraine is only in Putin weird imagination.

What Afghanistan got to do with Bin Laden''s attack on USA ? NATO went to war against Afghanistan for 20 years, no excuses ! NATO is just a blood thirsty war monger, it will strike where it can and necessary. Yeah, Ukraine wants to join NATO and both want to be enemies of Russia, NATO wants to completely encircle Russia and choke it to death. You think people are that stupid that they will believe the USA controlled NATO is a peace loving organization giving the long list history of countries that had been invaded by USA in the past including Vietnam.

 

[tower9]

I dont think China is 100 % loving the situation

This event will make energy and commodity prices high and will likely stay high for quite long. Many factors has made the energy and commodity prices high like the transition of the world economy into a green economy, and this event will give more supporting factor for energy and commodity prices to be more expensive and will likely remain at that price quite long.

Palm oil chart

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Oil price chart

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Gas Price

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Coal price chart

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This situation honestly puts China in a very awkward situation because even though Russia is a friend, China is a hardcore proponent of sovereignty and territorial integrity to protect its own interests so there is no way they can support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Although they will obviously offer Russia support in the form of sanctions relief.

 

[zartosht]

american/western habit of politicizing everything will come back to bite them...

swift was always supposed to be a non-political payment system. It was never designed to get hijacked as a tool of american oppression.

when they first cut Iran off, there was originally alot of pushback, from swift itself , and many others. However they eventually convinced themselves that Iran getting cut off would not make people lose confidence in swift, as Iran is a highly unsual one off case...

now its becoming an everyday tool of american geopolitics. Nobody will see swift the way they used to anymore, and countries are making huge efforts to create alternatives.

Russia can’t sustain a long war. Putin has $630b in forex reserves and gold. The West now seize them because most are not held in Russia. Russia banks will run out of money soon. Even the Swiss follows the sanctions. Putin is naked.

Sure, Putin can buy everything cheap in China.

"siezing" (stealing) Russian money would be seen as a declaration of war by Russia.

Russia is a hard power. You hit it with soft moves, it will respond with hard moves. Finland might be next if it steps out of line. And the finns need to get over their 1939 winter war fetish... They will get slaughtered this time before they know what hit them.. war is alot different today comaped to 1930s

 

[Song Hong]

american/western habit of politicizing everything will come back to bite them...

swift was always supposed to be a non-political payment system. It was never designed to get hijacked as a tool of american oppression.

when they first cut Iran off, there was originally alot of pushback, from swift itself , and many others. However they eventually convinced themselves that Iran getting cut off would not make people lose confidence in swift, as Iran is a highly unsual one off case...

now its becoming an everyday tool of american geopolitics. Nobody will see swift the way they used to anymore, and countries are making huge efforts to create alternatives.



"siezing" (stealing) Russian money would be seen as a declaration of war by Russia.

Russia is a hard power. You hit it with soft moves, it will respond with hard moves. Finland might be next if it steps out of line. And the finns need to get over their 1939 winter war fetish... They will get slaughtered this time before they know what hit them.. war is alot different today comaped to 1930s

Stealing Russian monies would be as good as declaring USD forex reserve + New york + London bank cartel dead,

 

[Han Patriot]

Russia can’t sustain a long war. Putin has $630b in forex reserves and gold. The West now seize them because most are not held in Russia. Russia banks will run out of money soon. Even the Swiss follows the sanctions. Putin is naked.

Sure, Putin can buy everything cheap in China.

Numb numb, its paper dollars. They just trade oil in Rmb and use Rmb to buy the shit they need. Its that simple. Will be hard for the first year, but look at how fast China reacted to US tariffs and sanctions. Only one last puzzle piece to tackle, Euv. Once thats in, good bye cowboy.

US and NATO can sanction Russian energy sells to Europe but not China. Chinese purchases of Iranian oil proves this. The only limiting factor is pipline capacity. Sanctions of Russian energy really hurts Europe more than Russia at this point. Western nations have been dipping into their strategic reserves since last Nov and they don't have much left atm.
Any western sanction on Russia will probably be crafted in a way to allow it to keep exporting oil.

Exactly, only China and Russia are still able to import Iranian oil.

 

[AZMwi]

cryptocurrency is the solution

 

[QWECXZ]

Russia is under sanction and she cant sell anyone other than China. Since Russia cannot trade in open market, she has no control of oil price now.

But China will be buying more Russian stuff and keep it afloat.

Recently Russia is become one of world largest food exporter (USSR still need to import food), I guess China may buy from Russia and dump Australia/USA.

Anyone other than China?
Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, Belarus, Syria, even India, etc.

The US is shooting itself in the foot with this move.

 

[Zsari]

NATO is a defense treaty there is zero threat to Russia. Only most delusional people believe Estonia will attack Russia. Putin thinks himself to make his country relevant.

A “defensive “ alliance that has bombed and invaded a number of nations already. Only the most delusional people would believe NATO poses zero threat to Russia. It even threatened China in its public statement.

 

[Shotgunner51]

Only one last puzzle piece to tackle, Euv. Once thats in, good bye cowboy.

We don't need EUV, it is blown out of proportion by media, even TSMC (ASML's backer) was suspicious of this path but Apple eventually bankrolled the regime change. China (SMIC) has determined to explore FinFET N+1 without EUV, various paths are under experiment including going further down on ArF immersion (which has been suspended by TSMC), or adopt new laser lithography tech from SIANO (Suzhou Institute of Nano-tech & Nano-bionics).

 

[MH.Yang]

Do you think I made joke? Russia is not China. I predicted earlier Putin will knee on the way to Beijing to ask for money. Germany with the 26 other EU countries just announced the most comprehensive sanctions ever imposed. All combined will ruin Russia. Thanks Putin’s war of aggression, russian living standards will sink deep in red territory.

You underestimate Russia.
Of course, Russia is not China, but Russia also is not Vietnam.

Russia has a complete industrial system and the world's largest resources. Even if foreign trade is completely closed, Russians can live a good life.
We Chinese only opened a window for our neighbors in the north, they don't rely on us. On the contrary, we rely on Russian resources.