China’s Navy Just Commissioned the New JL-3 Ballistic Missile - A Game Changer for Strategic Deterrence?

[Beidou2020]

China’s Navy Just Commissioned the New JL-3 Ballistic Missile - A Game Changer for Strategic Deterrence?

May-4th-2021

Amid a renewed focus by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) on its strategic nuclear forces, the PLA Navy has commissioned its first strategic submarine equipped with the long anticipated new JL-3 intercontinental range ballistic missile (ICBM). A new Type 094A Class submarine, which displaces 11,000 ton and carries twelve intercontinental range ballistic missiles, has been the first two deploy the JL-3, with the warship commissioned in late April. The ships represent a major improvement over the older Type 094 Class, and their superior hydrokinetic and turbulent systems have reportedly been key to allowing them to deploy the new missiles. The JL-3 has an estimated range of between 10,000 and 12,000km, and benefits from the latest Chinese missile technologies many of which have also been integrated onto the land based DF-41 ICBM which was first unveiled in October 2019.

Type 094 Class Ballistic Missile Submarine

The JL-3 was designed primarily for China’s next generation Type 096 Class ballistic missile submarine, none of which have so far been completed, but the development of the Type 094A Class has allowed the PLA Navy to begin fielding the new missiles earlier. Considering the performance limitations of its predecessor the JL-2, the JL-3represents a major game changer for China’s strategic deterrent and makes its strategic submarine fleet much more dangerous. With the U.S. and its allies effectively surrounding China with bases across Northeast Asia, submarines have been left somewhat vulnerable if attempting to operate too far beyond Chinese waters due to the very large concentration of anti submarine warfare assets in the area.

The JL-2 was restricted to only being able two strike parts of the U.S. mainland if fired from near China's territory, but with the JL-3 submarines will be able to strike considerably further and neutralise targets across the American mainland. This development complements both advances in the country's ground based strategic ballistic missile force, and work to provide the PLA Air Force with an intercontinental range strategic stealth bomber. The induction of the Type 096 Class submarine, which is speculated to be the quietest nuclear powered submarine in the world and could be launched before 2025, will further strengthen the country’s strategic deterrent and facilitate deployments further out to sea at a lower risk. Its superior stealth capabilities will allow it to sail from its home base through crucial chokepoints monitored by U.S. and allied forces to reach the mid-Pacific Ocean without being detected. The new ships are expected to carry 24 JL-3 missiles - or double the firepower of the Type 094A.

 

[Beidou2020]

Message is crystal clear:

DON’T MESS WITH CHINA

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

They say they want to compete peacefully. Then they have nothing to worry about. This ensures that competition remains peaceful.

 

[FuturePAF]

At 12,000 km, the JL-3 can cover, from within the Bohai Sea, all of the Continental US excluding Florida! With a fortified Bohai sea, China will be able to actually implement the Soviet Bastion strategy with the use of sonar nets and other means to keep adversary subs, surface vessels, and aircraft out of the Bohai sea.

http://www.cjoscoe.org/infosite/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Conflict-2020-and-Beyond_A-Look-at-the-Russian-Bastion-Defence-Strategy.pdf

“As the PRC fields newer, more capable, and longer-ranged SLBMs such as the JL-3, the PLAN will gain the ability to target the continental United States from littoral waters, and thus may consider bastion operations to enhance the survivability of its sea-based deterrent,” the DoD report said. “The South China Sea and Bohai Gulf are probably the PRC’s preferred options for employing this concept.”

Source: https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/RL33153.pdf

If increased to 13,000 km it would cover all of Florida from anywhere in the Bohai sea.

A significant threat once operational on submarines that will be nearly on par (in terms of noise levels) with current US Virginia class SSNs.

IMHO, China will try to legally push to get the Bohai sea recognized as its internal waters, which until now has not been accepted by other powers. Should their claim be accepted, they will close off the sea to all but Chinese shipping for strategic reasons (to make it easier for them to track unknown contacts and declare them hostile ships/subs)

China claims the Gulf of Bohai (Pohai) and the Hainan (Qiongzhou) Strait as internal waters. Both claims appear to be based on an historic rights rationale. In order to substantiate an historic bay or historic waters claim, a state must demonstrate its open, notorious, effective, and continuous exercise of authority over the bay/waters, coupled with an actual showing of acquiescence by foreign states in the exercise of that authority. The Gulf of Bohai has not been listed in standard compilations of historic bays, and both the United States and the United Kingdom protested the claim in 1958. Therefore, the claim does not appear to enjoy sufficient acquiescence by foreign governments as required by international law.

Source: https://www.lawfareblog.com/chinas-legacy-maritime-claims

“This may seem like a simple and obvious thing, but SSBNs inherently represent a highly flexible and survivable nuclear deterrent capability, especially for use in a second-strike role to ensure an ability to retaliate after an initial enemy onslaught,” the site said. “Those attributes are only increased if the future JL-3, which could have a range of up to 7,500 miles, enables launches against the United States from China’s own littoral areas, or even Chinese ports. The latter tactic is something the Soviet Union demonstrated during the Cold War and is something the Russian Navy reportedly still trains to do today.”

7500 miles is approx.12,000 km

Source: https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/RL33153.pdf

Second source on the range;

That’s because the JL-3’s claimed 7,450-mile-range could be two-thirds greater than the JL-2 missile currently in service.

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebast...-in-quest-for-more-survivable-deterrence/amp/

Type 096?

By one Chinese acccount, the 096 Tang class submarine is about 150 meters long (094 was 140 meters), about 20 meters wide [obviously wrong, 094 to 12.5 meters], with a full displacement maximum displacement of 20,000 tonnes (12,000 tons 094), or at least in more than 16,000 tons. The ship's shape approximates an elongated drop-type, double-shell design.

Source: https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/china/type-096.htm


If the US Columbia class currently under construction is estimated to be about 21,140 tons and carry 16 Trident D-5 SLBMs (12,000+ km range), it is possible the Type 096 could also carry 16 SLBMs, if it is also in the 20,000 ton size. The smaller French SSBN (15,000 tons) also carry 16 SLBMs (10,000 km range) but their missiles are smaller and have a shorter range then American missiles.

How many warheads and how many decoys will each JL-3 carry? Couldn’t find any information on MIRV count on the JL-3; maybe too early to tell, but if going by the DF-41 it would be 10 warheads.

Source: https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/df-41/

Considering the need to add decoys and each missile might carry a mix of different yield sizes the warhead count could be as high as 160 per sub but probably much lower considering the number of warheads China is said to have. Even by 2030, the entire Chinese arsenal may only have 1000 warheads per the Global times.

Source: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202111/1238102.shtml

IMHO, China may actually be about to ramp up its arsenal but doesn’t want to signal it until it’s naval platforms, aerial platforms, silos, and Mobile missile launchers are in place. They maybe trying to match the US arsenal size but over the next 25 years (at a rate of 200 warheads a year give or take). So that by 2049, they are at parity with the US in technology and warhead count of over 5000, with the goal of having the kind of nuclear umbrella that Russia has now (which deters major NATO military action against Russia) while it is engaged in Ukraine. With an arsenal of this size, the PLAN could easily be given at least 1500 warheads over a dozen Type 096 or follow on designs by 2049, and form a formidable second strike force, while the rest of the warheads could be divided amongst mobile launchers in the 5000 km of caves, hundreds of not thousands of silos being built and on nuclear capable H-20 stealth bombers. A very capable force the world won’t be able to ignore in future geopolitics.

Source: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-many-nuclear-weapons-exist-and-who-has-them/

Also, if a Bohai sea tunnel is build, IMHO, it will definitely have a component to allow for tethered Sonar buoys and other equipment to keep an ear on any traffic even thinking of moving into and out of the Bohai Sea. Almost the equivalent would be if the Russians had put SSBNs in the Caspian or the US in the Great Lakes.

Bohai Strait tunnel project - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org