China's Human Resources Thread

[Bussard Ramjet]

I promise, this is the last thread I am making, which I will bookmark to collate stuff about China's human resources.

In China, 1980 marked a generational turning point | Pew Research Center

In China, 1980 marked a generational turning point
BY GEORGE GAOLEAVE A COMMENT



The year 1980 in China is well known as the beginning of the country’s one-child policy. But what may be overlooked is how that year also marked a turning point in China’s generational experiences: Roughly half (47%) of China’s current population were born under the policy (ages 0 to 34 today), and they lived through a very different China than the half who were born before.

Indeed, there’s much discussion in Chinese media about the “post-1980s generation,” a label used to describe a group of people born immediately after a series of sweeping political, economic and cultural changes.

Members of the post-’80s generation (八零后) were born after the death of Mao Zedong, and after Deng Xiaoping took power and opened up China’s economy for reform. They came of age during China’s economic boom, and this generation serves as a reference point to describe a group of people (mostly in cities) who lived through significant cultural shifts – much as Baby Boomers and Millennials do for the U.S.

Those from this post-Mao, only-child generation, often called “little emperors,” are said to be spoiled and privileged, having not lived through food rationing or other hardships like their parents did. They’re criticized for being materialistic and rebellious, with unprecedented access to consumer goods and exposure to global pop culture – though they gained praise for their extensive earthquake-relief efforts in 2008. They’re also educated and tech-savvy (like the post-’90s and following generations) and have access to more information and social networks than ever before. Their most famous members include NBA player Yao Ming, young-adult novelist Guo Jingming and outspoken blogger Han Han.

The other half of China’s population (ages 35 and older, making up about 53% of the population) were born before the country’s one-child policy was widely implemented in September 1980, according to Pew Research Center’s analysis of United Nations data.

These older Chinese lived through a volatile era that included the civil war (ending in 1949), the Great Leap Forward (1958-1960), the Cultural Revolution (1966-1976) and other radical movements. They were part of a more agrarian society, with many living in poverty. Many were also quite young: data show that 72% of China’s population during the Cultural Revolution were ages 34 and under, including about 60% who were ages 24 and under.

The pre-’80s generations were part of a China that was more hostile to foreign countries, including the United States. Many came of age during an era when China closed down its borders to trade and travelers and condemned Western ideas. By contrast, the post-’80s and ’90s generations grew up in societies that were more engaged with international trade and exposed to U.S. culture.

This divide is evident in public opinion: Younger people in China, though still patriotic, view the U.S. more favorably than their elders, according to our spring survey this year. A majority (56%) of Chinese ages 18 to 34 give the U.S. a positive rating, while just 37% of older Chinese (ages 35 and older) view the U.S. favorably.

Nonetheless, there are many attitudes that Chinese of all ages share today: Life is better now than it was in the past, and China’s current economy looks solid. No matter their age, nearly all Chinese adults say their standard of living today is better than their parents’ when they were the same age. And a large majority of young and old Chinese (seven-in-ten) say their personal economic situation is good.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

China building boom outpaces population growth in many cities | Pew Research Center

Building outpaces population growth in many of China’s urban areas
BY GEORGE GAOLEAVE A COMMENT


Pedestrians walk past a construction site in Beijing. Photo credit: Wang Zhao/AFP/Getty Images
Millions of people across the East Asia Pacific are moving to cities, and nowhere more so than in China, where the urban population expanded by 131 million from 2000 to 2010, according to research from the World Bank.

But unlike other nations in the region, many of China’s urban areas have become less crowded (losing population density) in that time period, spurred by government policies that encourage rapid building. In the most unique cases, this has led to the creation of so-called “ghost cities,” where new urban infrastructure sits idle, waiting for the first inhabitants to arrive.

The extent of urban building in China can be studied in innovative ways, as seen in the World Bank report, which dispenses with traditional, administrative approaches to calculating urban populations and instead uses satellite imagery and census micro-data to measure urban density. The study defines urban areas as contiguous lands with 50% or more of the area covered by built-up infrastructures such as roads and buildings, and whose overall population was 100,000 or more in 2010.



The data show that China added 23,700 square kilometers of urban land in the first decade of this century, by far the most in East Asia Pacific. The 17 other nations in the region added just 4,800 square kilometers of urban land combined.

The rapid build-out of urban infrastructure has led to a situation in which 62% of urban areas in China with populations over 100,000 actually became less crowded (meaning they lost population density), even as most of them gained in total population. The simple math means that new construction rates in building out these cities outpaced the rates in which people were moving in. By contrast, just 9% of urban areas in other East Asian Pacific nations became less crowded.

For example, in the Shanghai urban area, which was relatively crowded to begin with, urban acreage increased by 117% (from 1,600 square kilometers in 2000 to 3,500 in 2010), while the area’s population grew at a lower rate of 73% (from 14 million to 24 million) – a net loss in density.

In extreme cases, about 50 of the smaller urban areas (map) in China were constructing more roads and buildings even while their populations declined from 2000 to 2010 – a phenomenon that has rarely occurred elsewhere in the region. This dynamic of more buildings and roads but fewer people likely leads to a larger share of structures sitting vacant.

Some of the most populated of these areas include Jiamusi in Heilongjiang province, one of the most northeastern cities in China;Jixi, a coal hub also in Heilongjiang; andXinji, a factory town in Hebei province that’s dominated by the tanning industry.

Since 2009, the news media have taken interest in China’s ghost cities, known colloquially as guicheng (鬼城). These newly built, dystopian-looking cities – such asKangbashi in Ordos City and Shenfu New Town in Liaoning province – have sophisticated urban infrastructure but very few people. While anecdotal and photographic evidence shows that these cities feel virtually empty, their populations are often too small to appear in the World Bank data, or they are considered parts of larger urban areas.

The phenomena of ghost cities and empty neighborhoods are driven largely by administrative decisions, according to a 2014 report by the World Bank and China’s State Council. It’s relatively inexpensive for local officials to expand their cities by converting rural lands, and sales of these lands for commercial or residential purposes often result in income gains for the local areas.

There are some caveats to the World Bank’s 2000 to 2010 data: Some urban areas, like Shanghai, were difficult to discern from the broader network of urbanizing areas surrounding it. And population density figures often mask internal variations within each area measured, for example, if people moved into denser city centers rather than the newly built neighborhoods on the outskirts. It’s also worth noting that total urban density – when you add up all the change across all the cities – has been stable in China.

The World Bank hopes to use satellite images in the future to look at urban growth in regions outside of the East Asia Pacific, and eventually worldwide, according to Judy Baker, lead economist at the World Bank’s Urban Practice Group.


@Shotgunner51 @Chinese Bamboo

There goes the reason of crowded cities. In effect, China's cities are one of the least densely populated in Asia.

Especially Beijing, which can have far more development activity vertically, to support greater densities.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Population of over-60-yr-olds reaches 212 million - People's Daily Online

Population of over-60-yr-olds reaches 212 million
(People's Daily Online) 14:07, June 15, 2015
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The number of people aged 60 and over reached 212 million at the end of 2014, whichmade up 15.5 percent of the total population, according to Wang Yong, director of theChina National Committee on Aging.

The aging population in China has five characteristics: aging population undergoes fastand large-scale growth; fast growth of disabled elders and heavy burden of the society;aging population problem in rural region becomes prominent; increase of empty nestfamily accelerates and more elderly live alone; people age before getting rich.

The article is edited and translated from《我国老年人口已达2.12亿 未富先老矛盾凸显》,source: People's Daily Online

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

One thing I would like to point here is that Population forecast has certain central attributes which makes things interesting in population determination and dynamics:

1. Population Dynamics have a lot of inertia, which means they are VERY VERY hard to change.
2. Population Dynamics are also relatively easy to determine. Population dynamics depend on these factors: Population Size, Population Profile, Total Fertility Rate, Life Expectancy Profile
3. Population Size, the most visible and quoted parameter, generally runs a generation behind total fertility rate. That is a decline in total fertility rate below replacement is visible in total population size only after a generation.
4. Population by research across times, has been the single most important determinant of a country's economic size.

China’s Population Is Growing More Slowly Than Beijing Predicted | The Diplomat

China’s Population Is Growing More Slowly Than Beijing Predicted
China’s demographic challenges are no secret, but the rate of change seems to have caught Beijing by surprise.

By Shannon Tiezzi

As China’s top leaders plan a course for the next five year plan at this week’s fifth plenum, People’s Daily istaking a look back at one particular area that defied Communist Party predictions: China’s population growth.

As Chan Lu reports, the 12th Five Year Plan (covering the period from 2011-2015) said China’s total population should reach 1.39 billion in 2015, representing a growth rate of 7.2 percent. The actual figures for 2015 are likely to fall 15 million below that number – 2014 statistics had China’s population only growing by 5.2 percent.

That adds to rising concerns that China’s population may be aging more quickly than the Chinese government had predicted. Originally, Chinese officials that the population would peak around 2030 (as United Nations statistics estimated). Now, it seems clear that population decline will begin much sooner – in 2020, as the headline of Lu’s piece indicates. China’s famous one-child policy may have worked too well, leading to rock-bottom fertility levels that will be hard to overcome.

Andrew Mason, a professor of economics at the University of Hawaii, helped organize a team of researchers to tackle the question of when low fertility rates become a serious problem. The answer, as summarized in Mason’sop-ed for China Daily: “super-low fertility, a total fertility rate of 1.5 births or less, creates problems.” China’s fertility rate may already have dropped below that number – a 2012 article from Feng Wang, director of the Brookings-Tsinghua Center, in China Economic Quarterlyfound that “China’s total fertility rate… is among the lowest in the world, at only 1.4.”

Wang also notes that China’s leaders have overestimated their country’s population growth since the 10th Five Year Plan was released in 2001. That, Wang explains, may be partially because the main goal was in fact tocontrol population growth – meaning lower-than-expected numbers were seen as an achievement by the government. But the repeatedly inflated figures may also explain why China is only now coming to terms with its demographic realities.

The People’s Daily report openly tackles the discrepancy. That the Communist Party’s official newspaper is addressing the subject adds credence to long-standing rumors that China will further relax its one-child policy this year. At the third plenum, in 2013, China announced a tweak to the plan that would allow couples to have two children provided one of the parents was an only child (prior to that, both parents had to be only children to be entitled to having two children). Now, rumor has it that China will simply move to a “two-child policy” across the board.

As Zhang Yi, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Science, told People’s Daily, “The result of the current two-child policy yields a less than optimum number of applicants and production, so the original plan may be outdated and is subject to further modifications.”

The problem is that, so far, China’s loosened restrictions haven’t actually translated to increased population growth. As Lotus Yang Ruan pointed out for The Diplomatearlier this year, one a tiny fraction of the couples eligible to have a second child under China’s current policy have chosen to do so. Even a universal two-child policy is unlikely to slow China’s population decline; as Mason points out, “a two-child policy is guaranteed to produce fertility well below replacement fertility.” And it seems many Chinese couples, especially those in urban areas, are simply not interested in having large families (a trend reflected in developed countries around the world).

Thanks to that low fertility rate, China’s population is aging rapidly. According to South China Morning Post,from the end of 2013 to the end of 2014, China’s population between the ages of 16 and 59 – identified as the potential workforce – dropped by 3.7 million. Meanwhile, the over-60 demographic grew by over 10 million, and now represents 15.5 percent of China’s total population. China’s workforce will continue to shrink – and its elderly population will continue to rise, to a predicted 25 percent of China’s total population by 2030.

That trend has been obvious for some time, but the speed of the change seems to have caught Beijing by surprise. The question now is what new steps the Communist Party leadership will take to try and stem the tide of population aging and decline.

China has almost always had 26-28% of the world's population. And that too without including vassal states. Though historical estimates are aplenty and the ones before 1900s can vary a lot, there is still a lot of consensus among many people about demographic situation.

Why are demographics important?

The most fundamental unit for economic productivity in the world are humans. We have still not come to the stage when the advances in robotics and artificial intelligence could make humans obsolete.

The economy of a country is primarily determined by:

1. The number of humans
2. The amount of workforce
3. Fertility and Rate of Increase in the Population (This doesn't contribute to economics in the short term, but determines the human resources of the future.)
4. Productivity of humans

Natural Resources are a thing of course, but as we know, a human is still worth a lot of money, and is quite a productive unit in the economy.

Historical Trend:

Generally in history, population was determined by the availability of resources, most important of all, the availability of fresh water. Before the advent of civilization and agriculture, people were mostly nomadic, which limited their ability for large groups. Agriculture and Civilization was the game changer, that made large resident populations exist. The biggest of all was as we know in the Yellow and Yangtze valley deltas-- the fertile soil, along with fresh water, good environment, safe place, led to a large surge in population and hence civilization. It was the result of this large resident 'civilized' population that came out to be the Chinese Civilization, these people created everything.

Another game changer occurred during the Industrial revolution. Though technology and productivity have almost always been important, it was here, that we witnessed the historic disparity of productivity. Europe took off, productivity, technology and culture progressed. Coupled with unlimited supply of natural resources via Colonization, it led to the sudden explosion of Output and wealth. Not only this, the same part of the world also colonized, and used demographic and military warfare to subsume 3 continents of the present day. ( 2 Americas, Australia)

The final game changer -- Globalization. With the advent of the system of globalization, supported by international financial systems, transnational movement of capital, separation of church and state, boom of the private sector, property and technology -- first time after a long time, developing countries found it easy to promote productivity by entering a globalized world, inviting foreign capital and technology. The capital and technology, unlike during the days of Industrialization was not solely owned by the state. Private Players, in search from profit, live low productive places whose productivity can be augmented easily. It is of course, need less to say that it gets increasingly difficult to raise productivity from say $100 to $1000 to $5000 to $10000 to $ 25000 to $50000 to further.

Hence, in this globalized world, population, the size of it started to be again seen as an asset rather than a liability.


Present Day Demographic Principles:
1. Natural Resources don't seem to be any barrier to population growth. Science, and Technology have made the basic needs of humans for survival very pedestal.
2. The biggest limiter of growth seems to be education, individualism, and ambition.
It is generally found that the more a society progresses towards what is called the modern society, people start seeing kids as liabilities. People become very self-centered, individualistic. The motivations that dissuade them from having kids are:

1. Late marriage and setting down.
2. Opportunity cost of time that has to be spent.
3. Cost of raising the kid.
4. Disruption in the lives of parents, both economically and psychologically, during pregnancy, and post-birth care.
5. Individualism and loss of family ties, where family becomes increasingly less important and distant.


Source: Chinese Demographics

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Population of China as a percentage of total world population through out history:

The above is the fraction of world's population that China makes in percentage terms.

Eg. In 0 AD, China's population was close to 35% of the world's population.

The data series starts from -2000 BC, advances every 1000 years, and then from 1000 AD, advances every 100 years.

World population estimates - Wikiwand

Demographics of China - Wikiwand

 

[Kyle Sun]

aged population is a very serious problem.

i think the second child.policy willnot help.

it is too late.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

This is the more recent history of China's population as compared to the world's total.

As of 2010, it has dropped to just above 19% of the world.

aged population is a very serious problem.

i think the second child.policy willnot help.

it is too late.

No, I know for a fact that China can reverse the tide of demographic change and stress.


But the biggest problem right now is recognition of the problem.

Too many people within China, and even here, live in this delusion that population doesn't matter that much, or that population of China is already too much, or similar.

This has led to a failure to recognize the problem.

Until and unless you recognize that there is a problem, there is no way to start taking steps to mitigate it.

 

[Kyle Sun]

But the biggest problem right now is recognition of the problem.

Too many people within China, and even here, live in this delusion that population doesn't matter that much, or that population of China is already too much, or similar.

This has led to a failure to recognize the problem.

Until and unless you recognize that there is a problem, there is no way to start taking steps to mitigate it.

We do not have such problem .

Most people here would like.to have more than 2 kids.

Our problem is most couples do not have enough money or time to take care 2 kids.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

We do not have such problem .

Most people here would like.to have more than 2 kids.

Our problem is most couples do not have enough money or time to take care 2 kids.

But isn't this the problem everywhere? In the whole world?

That people don't have the time, money, or energy to raise kids.

Giving birth to even one kid, can be a huge stumbling block in a women's career. It takes at least a whole year of valuable time out of her job.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Workforce no longer youth-dominated in China: survey - People's Daily Online

Workforce no longer youth-dominated in China: survey
(Global Times) 08:23, December 08, 2015
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Twitter and Facebook)(Editor:Sun Zhao,Wu Chengliang)

The average age for a member of China's labor force is 37.57, indicating that the countryno longer has a youth-dominated labor force, according to a report by a leading Chineseuniversity.

The 2015 China Labor-force Dynamic Survey, issued by the Center for Social Surveys atGuangzhou-based Sun Yat-sen University on Sunday, collected information on workersaged between 15 and 64 in 29 provinces and municipalities in China, news sitejiemian.com reported Monday.

According to the survey, laborers aged between 15 and 29 account for 33.07 percent of thecountry's labor force, while people aged between 20 and 44 account for 32.8 percent.

The survey also found that the average salary of all workers who received income in 2014was 30,197 yuan ($4,714), with an average annual growth rate of 9 percent.

The average annual salary of men was 33,697 yuan, while that of women was only 23,288yuan.

Meanwhile, the working hours of China's labor force fell from an average of 50 hours to 45hours a week from 2012 to 2014.

Self-employed entrepreneurs had the longest average working hours in 2014, whileprofessionals and people who headed an organization or company worked the shortestnumber of hours.

The survey also said that foreign joint ventures, State-owned enterprises and governmentorgans saw the biggest portion of workers working overtime.

 

[Shotgunner51]

CBA star Marbury to receive Chinese 'green card' - Sports - Chinadaily.com.cn
Updated: 2015-12-15 18:26

Stephon Marbury. The 38-year-old American is so popular in his new hometown that he was named honorary citizen of Beijing. Outside Beijing's home court, the MasterCard Center, Marbury has his own statue.

China started granting permanent residence permits to foreigners in 2004. Since then, about 5,000 foreigners have received permits.

 

[ahojunk]

CBA star Marbury to receive Chinese 'green card' - Sports - Chinadaily.com.cn
Updated: 2015-12-15 18:26

View attachment 279520

Stephon Marbury. The 38-year-old American is so popular in his new hometown that he was named honorary citizen of Beijing. Outside Beijing's home court, the MasterCard Center, Marbury has his own statue.

China started granting permanent residence permits to foreigners in 2004. Since then, about 5,000 foreigners have received permits.

Good on Stephon Marbury. From memory, he was seen to be a "bad boy" in the NBA.

A change in country and environment have done wonders for him.

Congrats to him and good on China granting him a "residence status".

My country, Australia happily gives out "permanent resident" visas to well known and established athletes and sportsmen. We also gives out this visas to people who are highly skilled, and of course to people who have lots of money.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Number of Births Drops By 320,000 in China in 2015 | Jan 20,2016

China's population climbed to 1.37 billion last year, 6.8 million higher than in 2014 but childbirths dropped by 320,000 in the same period despite relaxation of the one-child policy since 2013 showing the reluctance of couples to have a second child.

Around 16.55 million children were born in China in 2015, about 320,000 fewer than the previous year despite relaxation of the family planning policy in 2013.

The total population of the Chinese mainland stood at 1.37 billion in 2015, 6.8 million higher than in 2014, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said today.

Population experts previously predicted that about 1 million more newborns should be born in 2015 than were born in 2014 due to the easing of the one-child policy in 2013 to allow more couples to have a second child.

Experts also expected the total number of newborn children to hit 18 million in 2015, state-run Global Times reported.

"The decrease in the number of newborns was caused by the low childbearing intentions of women in ideal childbearing age and shrinking number of those at the ideal age," Huang Wenzheng, a former Harvard University assistant professor and expert on population, told news outlet yicai.Com.

China has permitted couples to have two children from this year, scrapping its one-child policy of 35 years.

Huang said that the impact of allowing all couples in China to have a second child was overestimated.

He expected that the number of births in 2017 is unlikely to exceed 17 million.

Echoing Huang, Yao Mei-xiong, deputy head of the Centre for Population Census of the Fujian Province Bureau of Statistics, said that China's population is set to experience negative growth every year after 2025, yicai.Com reported.

Zhai Zhenwu, chairman of the standing council of the China Population Association under the National Health and Family Planning Commission, told the Global Times that the impact of the relaxed policy will not be felt fully until 2016.

As all couples are now allowed to have two children as of January 1, the number of newborn second children will likely exceed 1 million, he said.

China introduced its family planning policy in the 1970s, and the government began limiting most couples to having one child in 1980.

The country relaxed the policy for the first time in 2013 by allowing couples to have a second child if either parent was an only child.

According to the NBS, the male population reached 704 million while the female population was about 670 million, leaving a male-to-female ratio of 105.02 to 100.

The bureau's statement also said that the number of people over the age of 65 reached 143 million, accounting for 10.5 per cent of China's overall population in 2015.

Meanwhile, the size of the labour force - people aged 16 to 59 - in proportion to the overall population decreased for the fourth year in a row.

Though China is still in the demographic dividend period, the country must work harder to tackle the foreseeable problems caused by an aging society and a shrinking labour force, Zhai said.

 

[Monkey King]

I guess China’s population dividends or bonus can still last for as least a decade. The population bonus here, I mean, is not only the number of population, but also the quality of population which can be roughly measured by the years of education they received.

Although China’s population would decrease several years later, China’s labor quality keeps improving. Maybe only half of total labor force have received more than 12 years of education. But 20 years later, almost 80% of labor force has at least 12 years of education (just estimation, no accurate data). As China is climbing the global value chain, the number of highly-skilled or more educated workforce is more important.

In fact, China’s rapid growth in the past 30 to 40 years is not only a result of reform and opening up policy and build-up of population bonus, but also the much improved education level in the working labor. Even in the remote mountainous villages, 90% of kids received nine years of compulsory education in the 1980s when China is still rather poor. The government attached great importance to education, as Xiaoping Deng put it “The science and technology is the primary productive force” in 1988. Also, education is highly valued in the confucius culture. Even the parents are illiterate, they would insist their kids to study in schools.

So I’m quite optimistic that China can still keep growing for decades even the population is declining, as long as it is not declining too fast.