China's Defense Budget 2017

[PRC2025]

So what do you think about this years' defense budget? How many percentages do you think it be increased? Given the situation, I think it's time to increase it by at least 12 - 15 percent - whether or not it's an "official" figure. However, I am guessing something around 9 percent officially.

Usually the figures are announced in the first week of March; at least, it's how the "tradition" has been over the past few years.

 

[Get Ya Wig Split]

I was about to ask the same question! Good thread, very important

China should increse its military budget big time. I would say around 300B. I know it wont happen but its time. Japan increased it to 50B too. Plus Trump wants to rebuild U.S. military so something needs to be done. China is spending 1.9% of its gdp on defense when U.S is spending 3.5%. And btw i think that $145B figure is fake. China is probably spending around 210-230B.

 

[GeHAC]

I was about to ask the same question! Good thread, very important

China should increse its military budget big time. I would say around 300B. I know it wont happen but its time. Japan increased it to 50B too. Plus Trump wants to rebuild U.S. military so something needs to be done. China is spending 1.9% of its gdp on defense when U.S is spending 3.5%. And btw i think that $145B figure is fake. China is probably spending around 210-230B.

The exchange rate has changed.The official figure would be around ￥1.05T this year.

 

[Sanchez]

I was about to ask the same question! Good thread, very important

China should increse its military budget big time. I would say around 300B. I know it wont happen but its time. Japan increased it to 50B too. Plus Trump wants to rebuild U.S. military so something needs to be done. China is spending 1.9% of its gdp on defense when U.S is spending 3.5%. And btw i think that $145B figure is fake. China is probably spending around 210-230B.

I think US number is also fake. I would say it’s around your neck， guess what，the real figure is god damn xxxxB or SB as Chinese would put it.

 

[Get Ya Wig Split]

Just in:

President Trump will propose raising military spending by $54 billion — a nearly 10 % increase


China should do the same...

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Here is the problem with spending more now, Chinese military technology is increasing at such a fast rate, that if you spend money now, there will be a better platform later on that you could have bought instead.

It's like buying a smartphone. I bought a OnePlus 3, and then a few months later they released a superior version (OnePlus 3T) for exactly the same price. If I had waited a few months I would have had a vastly better smartphone for the same cost.

That said, I also agree that military spending should be increased, China is spending the lowest (by far) as a percentage of GDP out of the top 5 military spenders. China has the largest population in the world to protect, and military spending makes a very tiny portion of China's annual government budget (especially compared to every other major country). It should be increased, either officially or unofficially.

 

[HannibalBarca]

Here is the problem with spending more now, Chinese military technology is increasing at such a fast rate, that if you spend money now, there will be a better platform later on that you could have bought instead.

It's like buying a smartphone. I bought a OnePlus 3, and then a few months later they released a superior version (OnePlus 3T) for exactly the same price. If I had waited a few months I would have had a vastly better smartphone for the same cost.

That said I also agree that military spending should be increased, China is spending the lowest (by far) as a percentage of GDP out of the top 5 military spenders. China has the largest population in the world to protect, and military spending makes a very tiny portion of China's annual government budget. It should be increased, either officially or unofficially.

But with that money you can build entire cities/infrastructure/schools/hospitals etc... . Ofc spending on defence is necessery, but China is not in danger, even thou there is conflict on some ground. No one around the world want a war today and specialy not china neither america.
IMO they should rise it later on , maybe few years later , a decade or so... . ( and technology will be more mature too)

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

But with that money you can build entire cities/infrastructure/schools/hospitals etc... . Ofc spending on defenc eis good, but China is not in danger, even thou there is conflict on some ground. No one around the world want a war today and specialy not china neither america.
IMO they rise it later on , maybe few years later , a decade or so... . ( and technology will be more mature too)

That's true, however the biggest problem with China's economy over the past few years has been an oversaturation of domestic investment. Which made up over 50% of Chinese GDP every year (over $5 trillion a year).

Recently China has been trying to move away from an investment-driven economy, towards a consumption-driven economy. Domestic investment is still extremely important, but you can have too much of a good thing, oversaturation will lead to a Japanese-style crisis where they were building infrastructure just for the sake of building infrastructure, digging up roads and building them again.

 

[HannibalBarca]

That's true, however the biggest problem with China's economy over the past few years has been an oversaturation of domestic investment. Which made up over 50% of Chinese GDP every year (over $5 trillion a year). China's defence budget is nothing in comparison.

Recently China has been trying to move away from an investment-driven economy, towards a consumption-driven economy. Domestic investment is still extremely important, but you can have too much of a good thing, oversaturation will lead to a Japanese-style crisis where they were building infrastructure just for the sake of building infrastructure, digging up roads and building them again.

Yes, but China infrastructure is lacking in some area of the country, and whitout it the country will be weak in the Time of need.
All of the West and south side of China need Bil$ to rise

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Yes, but China infrastructure is lacking in some area of the country, and whitout it the country will be weak in the Time of need.
All of the West and south side of China need Bil$ to rise

Do you know that China has been trying to move away from an investment-driven economy since the 2008 financial crisis?

This is the entire point of China's economic reforms, we are trying to restructure our economy to make it more balanced. Less investment, more consumption.

That's why so much Chinese investment is starting to flow overseas instead.

In any case, the amounts we are talking about in the Chinese defence budget are negligible compared to domestic investment of over $5 trillion a year.

 

[HannibalBarca]

Do you know that China has been trying to move away from an investment-driven economy since the 2008 financial crisis?

This is the entire point of China's economic reforms, we are trying to restructure our economy to make it more balanced. Less investment, more consumption.

That's why so much Chinese investment is starting to flow overseas instead.

In any case, the amounts we are talking about in the Chinese defence budget are negligible compared to domestic investment of over $5 trillion a year.

I know, but inland Investment is still lacking in a lot of areas of the country. It was the same as America after the WW2, but the difference with China of Today, it's that they almost finished their inland investment bf moving to a consumption state. The problem, could be that China is switching to fast her economy plan, while infrastructure is not entirely finished.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

I know, but inland Investment is still lacking in a lot of areas of the country. It was the same as America after the WW2, but the difference with China of Today, it's that they almost finished their inland investment bf moving to a consumption state. The problem, could be that China is switching to fast her economy plan, while infrastructure is not entirely finished.

You are correct, yes. China still lacks in infrastructure per capita.

However, the oversaturation of domestic investment was causing an enormous asset bubble in China.

If that bubble pops, it will make the 2008 global financial crisis look like a picnic. That's a far worse danger than any threat of military conflict.

China has been desperately trying to balance our economy over the past few years, less investment, more consumption. Development can't happen overnight, we need to pace it out to avoid a bubble.

 

[HannibalBarca]

You are correct, yes. China still lacks in infrastructure per capita.

However, the oversaturation of domestic investment was causing an enormous asset bubble in China.

If that bubble pops, it will make the 2008 global financial crisis look like a picnic. That's a far worse danger than any threat of military conflict.

China has been desperately trying to balance our economy over the past few years, less investment, more consumption. Development can't happen overnight, we need to pace it out to avoid a bubble.

Yes the main problem in China is her " too fast" development.
Anyway, defence is a necessity, but too much when they don't rly need it, could push the country in the coming years to spend even more. You can take out "investment" but downgrading an army is nearly impossible, so the rise will only rise even more. After that you will get the lobby who will push even more and more , and you'll get yourself in a spiral of spending...
And the best way to weaken your enemy is to make him spend his money for no reason...

 

[samsara]

While the USA can simply "print" (lit. and fig.) the money/usd and remains be sought out by nations in the world as "Reserves" owing to its current WRC & Petrodollar status to finance its military, China must work hard to earn that money. Therefore China should not compete with the USA in term of military budget numerically and instead must spend wisely and smartly... China, you don't have the luxury to just print your money, which is not WRC.

Let the USA spend the money that it does not have to its depletion, no need to jump in the destructive waste race to the pit bottom!

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UPDATED 2017.02.28
Read on the David Stockman's explanations at below interview (26 FEB 2017). He's the former Budget Director under Ronald Reagan's administration.

As Greg Hunter writes, former Reagan Administration White House Budget Director David Stockman says financial pain is a mathematical certainty. Stockman explains, “I think we are likely to have more of a fiscal bloodbath rather than fiscal stimulus. Unfortunately for Donald Trump, not only did the public vote the establishment out, they left on his doorstep the inheritance of 30 YEARS OF DEBT BUILD-UP and a fiscal policy that’s been really reckless in the extreme. People would like to think he’s the second coming of Ronald Reagan and we are going to have morning in America. Unfortunately, I don’t think it looks that promising because Trump is inheriting a mess that pales into insignificance what we had to deal with in January of 1981 when I joined the Reagan White House as Budget Director.”

Donald Trump is in a trap. Today the debt is $20 trillion. It’s 106% of GDP. . . .Trump is INHERITING A BUILT-IN DEFICIT of $10 trillion over the next decade under current policies that are built in. Yet, he wants more defense spending, not less. He wants drastic sweeping tax cuts for corporations and individuals. He wants to spend more money on border security and law enforcement. He’s going to do more for the veterans. He wants this big trillion dollar infrastructure program. You put all that together and it’s madness. It doesn’t even begin to add up, and it won’t happen when you are struggling with the $10 trillion of debt that’s coming down the pike and the $20 trillion that’s already on the books.”

There is much more in the video interview below in which Greg Hunter goes One-on-One with David Stockman.

 

[Shotgunner51]

China is spending 1.9% of its gdp on defense

It's much lower than that, only 1.28%.

2016 defence expenditure ¥954.354 billion
2016 GDP ¥74.4127 trillion