China's 294 megatons of thermonuclear deterrence

[Figaro]

China doesn't want to be dragged into the START.

China only wants treaty free, so it can develop any kind of weapons without any restriction.

To achieve this goal, you need to stay quiet in low profile, since the treaty of the restriction of the intermediate ballistic missile has prevented both USA and Russia to develop the same capability as China's DF-21D and DF-26, so China has learned this lesson by avoid signing into any sort of treaty.

Exactly ... which begs the question why would China attempt to cap it's nuclear weapons at 260 if it doesn't face any treaty restrictions. I feel that Western publications want to make China look weak as if it were a country that would be annilated in a first strike

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Exactly ... which begs the question why would China attempt to cap it's nuclear weapons at 260 if it doesn't face any treaty restrictions. I feel that Western publications want to make China look weak as if it were a country that would be annilated in a first strike

China's ICBM family is very flourishing, and China is currently operating many different type of ICBMs.

Since the ICBM is very expensive to develop, only at the mass production stage can curb down its development cost, so it is unlikely that China has developed so many different ICBMs, yet producing only a little quantity.

When you look at the small nuclear powers among the P5 nations; the UK and France, you can see that they operate only one type of ICBM(SLBM), and their nuclear portfolio is not diversified. They only focus on the single dimensional naval deterrence instead of the triad dimension.

China on the other hand doesn't look anything like the UK and France, since China's nuclear portfolio looks very diversified, and it is constantly upgrading and strengthening. China can operate a dozen of SSBNs, while the UK and France can only operate four maximum. China got vast territory which can easily harbor many land based ICBMs beneath underground, while the UK and France don't enjoy this kind of geographical advantage. Finally, China is also developing the stealth strategic bomber with the intercontinental range, and this is something that the UK and France can never possess.

So overall, China's nuclear stockpile doesn't look anything like the UK and France, but more akin to the US and Russia.

The only difference is that the US and Russia were the known giants, whereas China is a hidden one for some very obvious reasons.

 

[Gurjeet Walia]

I think it's hilarious that the Pentagon estimate of China's total thermonuclear warheads hasn't budged since about 1990. The Pentagon keeps repeating the falsehood that China only has 200-250 thermonuclear warheads.

Since 1990, China has modernized the DF-5A ICBM into DF-5B 10-MIRV ICBMs. That's a 10-fold jump in the number of thermonuclear warheads per DF-5 missile. Yet, there is no spike in the chart to reflect the 10-MIRV upgrade of China's DF-5A into DF-5B ICBMs.

China introduced the DF-31 and DF-31A 3-MIRV ICBMs into service in 2006-2007. Once again, there is no spike in the chart to show the increase in Chinese thermonuclear warhead total.

Last year, we saw China deploy brigades of DF-41 ICBMs in northeast China and Tibet province. Each DF-41 ICBM carries 10 MIRVs. The Pentagon's annual report on Chinese military power kept repeating the claim of 250 Chinese thermonuclear warheads (which is basically unchanged from 1990).

Also, China increased the number of Type 094 SSBNs from two to four. Once again, the Pentagon ignored the increase in Chinese JL-2 8-MIRV SLBMs.

Last week, we saw China parade 16 DF-31AG 5-MIRV ICBMs. Popular Science says there are more DF-31AG ICBMs, because China is on a nuclear build-up. Chinese military experts have said that China intends to reach parity in thermonuclear weapons with the United States. China has been modernizing its nuclear forces for 40 years. Yet, the Pentagon keeps claiming that China's total thermonuclear warheads hasn't budged from 250 for three decades.

You get to decide whether your eyes are lying or the Pentagon is lying. Are the pictures of China's DF-5B ICBMs, DF-31A ICBMs, DF-31AG ICBMs, DF-41 ICBMs, and JL-2 SLBMs all fake? If you believe the pictures of Chinese ICBMs are real and there are also pictures of Chinese ICBM launches (and there is an old video of a Chinese DF-5 ICBM launch into the South China Sea) then China's total thermonuclear warheads is NOT 250.

Maybe Pentagon don't want to see 2 nuclear armed rival, except Russia.

 

[Martian2]

China displayed 16 new DF-31AG 3-MIRV ICBMs at July 30, 2017 parade | Jane's

According to Jane's, China showed 16 of its new DF-31AG 3-MIRV ICBMs to the world on July 30, 2017 (see article below).

The DF-31AG has a range of 11,200 km, which means it can hit the entire United States.

DF-31AG Intercontinental ballistic missile | Military Today

"A total of 16 DF-31AG launchers with missiles were publicly presented during this parade. Such appearance of numerous missiles indicates that the DF-31AG is already in service with Second Artillery Corps, that are de facto strategic missile forces of Chinese army. Currently it is among the deadliest ICBMs in the world.
...
Once on high alert the road-mobile DF-31AG missiles can leave their bases and operate in remote areas. Its autonomy allows the vehicle to operate undetected in an area equivalent to a small European country. Such mobile missiles are typically harder to intercept than stationary silo-based missiles. As a result these have a high probability of surviving the first strike once the country has been attacked."

The family of Chinese ICBMs and SLBMs is expanding.

DF-5A ICBM: Single Five Megaton warhead
DF-5B: Ten MIRVs
DF-31: Single warhead
DF-31A: Three MIRVs
DF-31AG: Three MIRVs with extended range (distinguished by eight-wheel TEL with missile abutting driver cabin)
DF-41: Twelve MIRVs

JL-2 SLBM: 8 MIRVs (according to Jane's)
JL-3 SLBM: Navalized DF-41 ICBM with 12 MIRVs (in development)
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DF-31AG ICBM can carry multiple warheads, claims China’s state media | Jane's

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The DF-31AG TEL (shown in picture) carries the missile behind the driver's cabin. In contrast, the longer DF-41 ICBM missile extends beyond the front of its TEL driver-cabin. The TEL has eight wheels for both the DF-31AG and DF-41.
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At eight seconds into the video below, the first eight TELs are regular DF-31A ICBMs (which has shorter range). The front of the DF-31A ICBM canister is located about ten feet behind the driver cabin.

In contrast, DF-31AG ICBMs can be seen 24 seconds into the video. The front of the canister for the DF-31AG ICBM is almost flush against the back of the driver cabin.

 

[samsara]

UPDATES ON CHINA NUCLEAR DETERRENT FORCES

Some quite recent nearly-official updates on the latest development of China's Nuke Deterrent forces through various state media, recapped from few posts done in the Chinese Missiles thread.

(1) The DF-41 ICBM is expected to be deployed at large scale! Aired on 22 November 2017
[Greater China Live Broadcast]《直播港澳台》 20171122 Dongfeng-41 ICBM is expected to enter large scale operation 东风-41_有望大规模入役 - Shenzhen Satellite TV News
See the post at here.

(2) The People's Daily's tweet and attached short footage on 18 November 2017
"WATCH: Video reveals Dongfeng-41, China's newest intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which can carry 10 nuclear warheads and has an operational range of over 12,000 kilometers."
See the post at here.

Also a footage from Tencent Video was posted there.

(3) The South China Morning Post's article on Dongfeng-41 trial, article dated 09 November 2017
See the post at here.


Now I wonder a bit whether or not the relevant authority in the U.S. will update its publicized "classical references" about the Chinese strategic nuclear warheads and their delivery vehicles in 2018...
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[atan651]

Bravo, all these missiles will be aimed at the USA!

 

[samsara]

Bravo, all these missiles will be aimed at the USA!

Actually all sane & thoughtful minds should think broader in this regard that a highly respectable and effective Chinese nuke deterrent forces will ensure that the MAD situation among the major powers is being preserved, a balance of power is in place and rectified... thus this condition of parity may prevent any party's wild adventurous thinking or temptation to launch the First Nuke Strike, that is a sudden, unprovoked strike to decapitate the adversary's nuke force with expectation/confidence/belief that its own ballistic missile defence (BMD) installed in the global theatres (GMD - Global Missile Defence) will shield its own mainland from the retaliatory attacks by the adversary's remaining nuke warheads after being hit severely by the First Nuke Strike.

Such nuke fallacies of one's own nuke superiority is quite dangerous and indeed has moved the Doomsday Clock to the position of 2.5 minutes to the midnight, one of the narrowest position to the "boom". This clock is being administered by the members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Science and Security Board. Therefore the additional beef-up of China's strategic nuke deterrent forces will help put back the nuclear power equilibrium, deny any other major powers' attempts to achieve and impose its own Nuclear Primacy; hence, help preserve the world peace that has been lasting ever since WWII... much of the peace among the major powers is attributed to the existence of the strategic nuclear parity that in turn creates the nuclear MAD situation.

Look for and watch the John Pilger's cool documentary: "The Coming War on China" just for some ideas... The Global Research - Centre for Research on Globalization website (GlobalResearch.ca) also carries some good articles on this subject (some authored by Professor Michel Chossudovsky himself).
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[Martian2]

China's DF-41 ICBM carries 10 MIRVs. Each MIRV has a yield of 150 kilotons.

Australia's Dr. Malcom Davis ("a senior analyst in defence strategy and capability at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute") said China's DF-41 ICBM carries "up to 10 warheads each with yields of around 150 kilotons (150,000 tons TNT equivalent) — or a single warhead with a yield up to 3 megatons (millions of tons of TNT)."

The US atomic (fission) bomb that was dropped on Hiroshima had a yield of 15 kilotons.

China's DF-41 ICBM carries 10 MIRV thermonuclear (fusion) warheads. Each MIRV thermonuclear warhead has a yield of 150 kilotons. This means each MIRV warhead is ten times more powerful than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. Detonated in an airburst at 2,000 feet above a city, China's 150-kiloton MIRV warhead would be devastating.
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About News.com.au: "Australia’s number one news site news.com.au reaches over 5.5m* Australians, delivering extensive breaking news and national interest stories thanks to our team of dedicated journalists plus the strength of the News Corp Australia network."

China: New missile, DF-41, expected to be deployed next year | News.com.au (December 1, 2017)

"Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst in defence strategy and capability at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said this [DF-41] was China’s most advanced ICBM.

'It’s a road-mobile, solid fuelled ICBM with the range to cover all targets in the continental United States,' Dr Davis said.

'Its MIRVed — MIRV standing for multiple independently targeted re-entry vehicles.

This means the missile can carry multiple nuclear warheads — up to 10 warheads each with yields of around 150 kilotons (150,000 tons TNT equivalent) — or a single warhead with a yield up to 3 megatons (millions of tons of TNT).'

Dr Davis said 24 of these missiles could deliver between 240 warheads against the US.

'The North Korean Hwasong-15 would by contrast carry a single warhead,' he said.

'It would also carry penetration aids (‘penaids’) designed to confuse US missiles defences.'

Dr Davis said China is also developing ‘MARVs’ — manoeuvring re-entry vehicles — that would give them the ability to further defeat US missile defence, and potentially, attack mobile targets.

'They are also developing hypersonic glide vehicles which would carry individual warheads and glide at up to Mach 20 at very high altitude on a highly evasive trajectory, with the hypersonic glide vehicle (called a ‘DZ-ZF’) being launched atop the DF-41 in place of the regular payload of warheads,' he said.

Beijing’s overall objective is to ensure Chinese ICBMs like the DF-41 can defeat US missile defence systems, Dr Davis said."

 

[Olli Ranta]

I think it's hilarious that the Pentagon estimate of China's total thermonuclear warheads hasn't budged since about 1990. The Pentagon keeps repeating the falsehood that China only has 200-250 thermonuclear warheads.

Since 1990, China has modernized the DF-5A ICBM into DF-5B 10-MIRV ICBMs. That's a 10-fold jump in the number of thermonuclear warheads per DF-5 missile. Yet, there is no spike in the chart to reflect the 10-MIRV upgrade of China's DF-5A into DF-5B ICBMs.

China introduced the DF-31 and DF-31A 3-MIRV ICBMs into service in 2006-2007. Once again, there is no spike in the chart to show the increase in Chinese thermonuclear warhead total.

Last year, we saw China deploy brigades of DF-41 ICBMs in northeast China and Tibet province. Each DF-41 ICBM carries 10 MIRVs. The Pentagon's annual report on Chinese military power kept repeating the claim of 250 Chinese thermonuclear warheads (which is basically unchanged from 1990).

Also, China increased the number of Type 094 SSBNs from two to four. Once again, the Pentagon ignored the increase in Chinese JL-2 8-MIRV SLBMs.

Last week, we saw China parade 16 DF-31AG 5-MIRV ICBMs. Popular Science says there are more DF-31AG ICBMs, because China is on a nuclear build-up. Chinese military experts have said that China intends to reach parity in thermonuclear weapons with the United States. China has been modernizing its nuclear forces for 40 years. Yet, the Pentagon keeps claiming that China's total thermonuclear warheads hasn't budged from 250 for three decades.

You get to decide whether your eyes are lying or the Pentagon is lying. Are the pictures of China's DF-5B ICBMs, DF-31A ICBMs, DF-31AG ICBMs, DF-41 ICBMs, and JL-2 SLBMs all fake? If you believe the pictures of Chinese ICBMs are real and there are also pictures of Chinese ICBM launches (and there is an old video of a Chinese DF-5 ICBM launch into the South China Sea) then China's total thermonuclear warheads is NOT 250.

One more note: As I mentioned before the number of 250 warheads may be related to the number of hydrogen / fusion bombs and that figure comes from production of tritium to keep them in operating condition. According to wikipedia's Nuclear_weapon_yield article a typical size for a fission, non-hydrogen bomb is 150 MT and maximum size 500 MT. So it's likely that a MIRV warhead has only non-thermonuclear bombs.

 

[Martian2]

One more note: As I mentioned before the number of 250 warheads may be related to the number of hydrogen / fusion bombs and that figure comes from production of tritium to keep them in operating condition. According to wikipedia's Nuclear_weapon_yield article a typical size for a fission, non-hydrogen bomb is 150 MT and maximum size 500 MT. So it's likely that a MIRV warhead has only non-thermonuclear bombs.

You're making a ridiculous claim.

The US government always puts an asterisk next to its estimate of Chinese nuclear weapons. It says the "estimate" could be wrong.

You have no idea about tritium production in China. To claim otherwise is silly. Have you ever conducted a country inspection of China in the last 50 years on its tritium production? [Note: China's first thermonuclear bomb was 3.3 megatons and detonated in 1967, which was 50 years ago.]

Tritium production in China is a wild guess.

Before China unveiled its secret nuclear reactor near Chongqing, did anyone know or talk about the nuclear facility? The answer is no.

China opens Cold War nuclear plant to travelers | CNN (March 27, 2017)

No one knows what's hidden in China's mountains.

This is the absurd claim that you're making: China is building all of these ICBMs for show. They really don't have thermonuclear warheads!

Yeah, right. You're an idiot.

The US government is upset about China's ICBM buildup. But hey, you know better. You're claiming there are no thermonuclear warheads in them. If that is the case, why is the US government concerned about China's ICBM buildup?
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Is there a tritium shortage in China? I don't think so. China has been exporting tritium to Pakistan. That indicates a surplus of Chinese tritium.

PRODUCING TRITIUM IN NORTH KOREA | Arms Control Wonk (May 10, 2016)

"While North Korea would struggle to acquire tritium from the major commercial exporters in Canada, Switzerland, the US, and France, it might have better luck from noncommercial sources. While Pakistan was illegally importing tritium from Germany, it also reportedly received tritium directly from China. Israel also transferred tritium to South Africa in exchange for Pretoria looking the other way while their yellowcake was used to generate weapons-grade plutonium in Dimona."
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We know China has conducted about 40 hydrogen bomb tests, with about 20 of the tests being atmospheric. Every hydrogen bomb required tritium, which appeared to be in plentiful supply.

We know for a fact that China has the capability to produce tritium for 50 years.

For argument's sake, let's pretend that China has a tritium shortage. What is to stop China from reactivating its tritium plants to produce new tritium?

If the amount of tritium is still insufficient, build new Chinese tritium plants.

In conclusion, the claim that Chinese ICBMs have non-thermonuclear warheads due to a tritium shortage is just plain dumb. China simply has to increase production of tritium to meet its needs. There is no reason that China would intentionally deprive itself of tritium. In China, the technology to produce tritium is at least 50 years old.
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China has a surplus of tritium. China sells tritium-based consumer products.
AliExpress has multiple sellers of TRITIUM gas tube lamps to consumers.

Imports of self-luminous 25 years tritium gas tube lamp tritium lamp | AliExpress

 

[samsara]

Hydrogen Bomb (H-bomb; fusion) vs. Atomic Bomb (A-bomb; fission): What's the Difference?

Hydrogen bombs (H-bomb), or thermonuclear bombs use fusion, are more powerful than atomic or "fission" bombs (A-bomb). The difference between thermonuclear bombs and fission bombs begins at the atomic level.

Fission bombs, like those used to devastate the Japanese cities of Nagasaki and Hiroshima during World War II, work by splitting the nucleus of an atom. When the neutrons, or neutral particles, of the atom's nucleus split, some hit the nuclei of nearby atoms, splitting them, too. The result is a very explosive chain reaction. The bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki exploded with the yield of 15 kilotons and 20 kilotons of TNT, respectively, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists.

In contrast, the first test of a thermonuclear weapon, or hydrogen bomb (uses fusion), in the United States in November 1952 yielded an explosion on the order of 10,000 kilotons of TNT. Thermonuclear bombs start with the same fission reaction that powers atomic bombs — but the majority of the uranium or plutonium in atomic bombs (A-bombs) actually goes unused. In a thermonuclear bomb (H-bomb), an additional step means that more of the bomb's explosive power becomes available.

First, an igniting explosion compresses a sphere of plutonium-239, the material that will then undergo fission. Inside this pit of plutonium-239 is a chamber of hydrogen gas. The high temperatures and pressures created by the plutonium-239 fission cause the hydrogen atoms to fuse. This fusion process releases neutrons, which feed back into the plutonium-239, splitting more atoms and boosting the fission chain reaction.

Sources:

• Live Science (2017-09-22)
• Fission and Fusion - Union of Concerned Scientists

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[Olli Ranta]

Hi Martian2! So good that Samsara took the trouble to clarify basic concepts. Anyway it now seems to me that as China stopped the construction of large U235 plants in early 1980 to concentrate economic resources elsewhere that likely was a clever move. More recently China possibly has constructed new large plants for such purpose. Old plants typically were based on diffusion of gases containing uranium and were extremely energy intensive. More recent plants normally use centrifuges to separate U235.

 

[Beast]

We will see the DF-41 on display on 2019 China national day.

 

[Adam WANG SHANGHAI MEGA]

Why does China not increase its nuclear warheads to 2,000?
China is not lacking in economic strength and ability to manufacture nuclear warheads (whether it is an atomic bomb,neutron bomb or a hydrogen bomb. At present, China is the only nuclear power that reserves 30 hydrogen bombs thanks to YU Min model which makes them easier to maintain). It is clear that the only thing Americans fear is the number of Russian nuclear warheads. Why China does not increase its nukes number to 2000 or 5000 instead of 250 units smaller than France? I can not understand very well. . .

Chinese hydrogen bomb

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

Why does China not increase its nuclear warheads to 2,000?
China is not lacking in economic strength and ability to manufacture nuclear warheads (whether it is an atomic bomb,neutron bomb or a hydrogen bomb. At present, China is the only nuclear power that reserves 30 hydrogen bombs thanks to YU Min model which makes them easier to maintain). It is clear that the only thing Americans fear is the number of Russian nuclear warheads. Why China does not increase its nukes number to 2000 or 5000 instead of 250 units smaller than France? I can not understand very well. . .

Chinese hydrogen bomb

How do you know China doesn't have 2000 nuclear weapons?