China with at least 200 operational J-20 stealth fighter jets

[FuturePAF]

Could we see a 1000 J-20 by 2030, considering the expansion of the Chengdu Aircraft corporation manufacturing facility expansion?

Currently J-20 is estimated to be between 184-208 (70 produced in 2022, 100+ in 2023, and ~140 per year by 2024 or 2025)

28:00-31:30

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Could we see a 1000 J-20 by 2030, considering the expansion of the Chengdu Aircraft corporation manufacturing facility expansion?

Currently J-20 is estimated to be between 184-208 (70 produced in 2022, 100+ in 2023, and ~140 per year by 2024 or 2025)

28:00-31:30

Both US and China have secretly maiden flied its 6th gen prototype, so China is likely to export the J-20B with the WS-15 forward to 2025.

The J-20B for air force export, and J-35 for naval export bundled with the Type 076.

 

[That Guy]

The point is that a picture with a serial number is not proof of anything.

With such a large economy and manufacturing base, what makes you so skeptical at these numbers? To be it's seems very realistic.

 

[SQ8]

With very limited industrial and manufacturing capability, it sounds like a good idea for US.

Considering the Japanese thought that too I would caution any bravado. 1000th F-35 just rolled off the factory floor

 

[FuturePAF]

Considering the Japanese thought that too I would caution any bravado. 1000th F-35 just rolled off the factory floor

What’s the current annual rate of F-35 production?

 

[IblinI]

tremendous achievement china

not enough, J20B, J20S equipped with WS-15 and J35 with WS-19 should be a medium term goal...

Could we see a 1000 J-20 by 2030, considering the expansion of the Chengdu Aircraft corporation manufacturing facility expansion?

I am skeptical about this number, maybe at best J20 series plus J35, its only 7 years away from 2030.

 

[SQ8]

What’s the current annual rate of F-35 production?

150 per year or so

 

[FuturePAF]

150 per year or so

With a thousand built so far, is production expected to increase beyond this or is this the anticipated production run rate for the foreseeable future?

Also, are the orders on the books still around 3000 in total; for the US and allies or just the US?

If the Chinese reaches a 1000 J-20 by 2030 (basically where the US is with the F-35 in 2023) and continue at a rate of 140 a year, could have 2400 J-20 by 2040 if they desired, by which time the 3000 F-35s will have been built and delivered. Which brings them close to parity with the USAF.

 

[FuturePAF]

Both US and China have secretly maiden flied its 6th gen prototype, so China is likely to export the J-20B with the WS-15 forward to 2025.

The J-20B for air force export, and J-35 for naval export bundled with the Type 076.

Have any countries expressed interest in acquiring the J-20B or J-35/Type 076?

 

[IblinI]

If the Chinese reaches a 1000 J-20 by 2030 (basically where the US is with the F-35 in 2023) and continue at a rate of 140 a year, could have 2400 J-20 by 2040

No way the number would go up like that, by that time, the air force will slowly move to sixth gen...

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

With such a large economy and manufacturing base, what makes you so skeptical at these numbers? To be it's seems very realistic.

I didn’t say that I was skeptical to the numbers.
I said that serial numbers are not proof of delivered volume and explained why.
It is up to You if you want to base an estimation on easily faked ”facts”.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Have any countries expressed interest in acquiring the J-20B or J-35/Type 076?

Many countries have already been interested, but China will find an impeccable timing to export it.

 

[That Guy]

I didn’t say that I was skeptical to the numbers.
I said that serial numbers are not proof of delivered volume and explained why.
It is up to You if you want to base an estimation on easily faked ”facts”.

But is it faked? You are describing skepticism using alternative wording; a distinction without a difference.

You're being contrarion for no real reason.

 

[huanghong]

Is the figure of 200 real? If this number is until the end of 2022, it means that the production number of J-20 in the first 6 years is comparable to that of f-35. The F-35 has delivered 894 in the 12 years to the end of 2022. Slightly lower than the original plan of the manufacturer in 2019。

 

[Ali_Baba]

If you consider the rate at which china is innovating her military aerospace industry - there is a good chance(speculation on my part) that China will cap its J20 fleet and move onto potentially an interim(unannounced of course) 5.5 gen platform before it unveils its 6th gen solution ? There is so much intellectual energy in China's aerospace development that they may want to tap into that to do an interim solution.

I dont count the J-31/35 as part of that interim - at best - the PLAN may buy into it ..

China wants to leapfrog and gain military superiority and it is currently capable of generating new designs and fielding themquickly. That is the variable we need to consider when looking at China's fleet renewal plans.