China trade sanctions 'failing to cripple Australian economy'

[dbc]

what a coincidence. this appears to be true for the US as well, seeing as how US-China trade is also hitting record heights.

Yes but largely driven by the pandemic influenced spending. Home offices furniture and office supplies was the principal driver and of course medical disposable supplies such as masks and gloves. 2020 was an anomaly, a new trend is emerging in 2021 the west remains the dominant market and will drive demand for the foreseeable future. Consumers are asking for alternatives to China, I suppose this trend is largely influenced by COVID and the negative press around China. It obviously doesn't help when Chinese foreign officials throw juvenile temper tantrum's in public.
Additionally, businesses are looking to derisk- once again lessons learnt during the lock down, a combination of trade tariffs, political uncertainties is the compelling driver behind the push to diversification of supplies. Finally, the Chinese consumer is already over leveraged and will be of minor consequences once the effects of Chinese stimulus subsides. So yes trade imbalance with China will self correct in a few years.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Yes but largely driven by the pandemic influenced spending. Home offices furniture and office supplies was the principal driver and of course medical disposable supplies such as masks and gloves. 2020 was an anomaly, a new trend is emerging in 2021 the west remains the dominant market and will drive demand for the foreseeable future. Consumers are asking for alternatives to China, I suppose this trend is largely influenced by COVID and the negative press around China. It obviously doesn't help when Chinese foreign officials throw juvenile temper tantrum's in public.

Additionally, businesses are looking to derisk- once again lessons learnt during the lock down, a combination of trade tariffs, political uncertainties is the compelling driver behind the push to diversification of supplies. Finally, the Chinese consumer is already over leveraged and will be of minor consequences once the effects of Chinese stimulus subsides. So yes trade imbalance with China will self correct in a few years.

Chinese consumer is overleveraged? Proof? Do you know what overleveraged means?

Chinese stimulus? Value was 550 billion RMB (70 billion EUR) or about 1% of US stimulus package. In contrast the US borrowed $5 trillion USD in stimulus to generate -3.5% GDP loss. To make the stimulus financially worthwhile, it would need to generate at least its own value back plus the value of interest it would accrue. It is unlikely to do so.

 

[dbc]

Chinese consumer is overleveraged? Proof? Do you know what overleveraged means?

Chinese stimulus? Value was 550 billion RMB (70 billion EUR) or about 1% of US stimulus package. In contrast the US borrowed $5 trillion USD in stimulus to generate -3.5% GDP loss. To make the stimulus financially worthwhile, it would need to generate at least its own value back plus the value of interest it would accrue. It is unlikely to do so.

The Chinese central bank published a report on surging household debt on Feb 8, 2021 I invite you to find it and read it.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

The Chinese central bank published a report on surging household debt on Feb 8, 2021 I invite you to find it and read it.

you made the claim, you point out your facts. I have no duty to conduct research to fuel your argument, who the hell do you think you are?

 

[dbc]

you made the claim, you point out your facts. I have no duty to conduct research to fuel your argument, who the hell do you think you are?

then don't, I understand the truth can be scary..

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

then don't, I understand the truth can be scary..

so you admit that you have no evidence, since if you did, you'd produce it.

 

[dbc]

so you admit that you have no evidence, since if you did, you'd produce it.

yes I admit I made up this report

中国货币政策执行报告
2020 年第四季度
中国人民银行货币政策分析小组

2021 年 2 月 8 日

and published it on a Chinese government website

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

yes I admit I made up this report

中国货币政策执行报告
2020 年第四季度
中国人民银行货币政策分析小组

2021 年 2 月 8 日

and published it on a Chinese government website

yet you can't point to a single excerpt that supports your point of view.

 

[CAPRICORN-88]

Did China sanction Australia?


So consumers have NO right to choose frim who they want buy their stuffs from.

it must comes from Australia?
Even buying from Australia's Master USA is wrong.
Why not ask USA not to sell?

 

[CAPRICORN-88]

I will never buy my stuff from any retailer with an attitude.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Try page 44 section titled 专栏 4 合理评估居民部门债务风险 It stresses the need to control debt fuelled consumption implying increased tightening of credit to the individual and household.
It acknowledges household debt is a problem and it highlights the need to curb debt fuelled consumption which is evident in the rate of default on credit card loans.

强化消费金融监管的背景下，居民债务增速已从前几年超过 20%放缓至当前的

15%左右，居民杠杆率上升的速度亦有所放缓。考虑到我国居民杠杆率中有相当

部分是具有自偿性的经营性债务，加上我国高储蓄率的“厚家底”、个人住房贷

款首付比例较高的“缓冲带”，以及居民债务高度分散、集中度较低的特点，我

国居民部门债务风险尚在可控范围。但也要看到，2011 年以来我国居民部门杠杆

率持续走高，2011 年末至 2020 年上半年的上升幅度超过 31 个百分点，居民债

务继续扩张的空间已非常有限，相关风险值得关注。

要高度警惕居民杠杆率过快上升的透支效应和潜在风险。一方面，部分负债

消费主体存在非理性，未来收入与还款支出不匹配，容易超过自身经济能力过度

借贷消费，埋下金融风险的隐患。另一方面，企业面对债务刺激出来的消费需求，

若扩大生产，则当未来居民债务不断攀升、偿付能力难以为继时，又会暴露出产

能过剩问题，与高质量发展的要求不匹配。与此同时，在我国消费贷款快速扩张

过程中，部分金融机构忽视了消费金融背后所蕴含的风险，客户资质下沉明显，

多头共债和过度授信问题突出。2020 年以来，部分银行信用卡、消费贷不良率已

显现上升苗头。

总体而言，加快构建新发展格局，要注重需求侧管理，坚持扩大内需这个战

略基点，激发国内消费潜力，但不宜靠发展消费金融来扩大消费。要坚持金融创

新在审慎监管的前提下进行，更多从促进就业、完善社保、优化收入结构、改善

消费环境等方面发力，始终把实施扩大内需战略同深化供给侧结构性改革有机结

合，增强消费对经济高质量发展的基础性作用。




really page 1 and 2 of the report already debunks your lie

中期借贷便利、再贷款、再贴现等工具，共推出 9 万多亿元货币支持

疫情防控形势和经济发展需要，分层次、有梯度出台三批次合计 1.8

What lies? All my sources are accepted mainstream western media with easily followed links.

I still don't see any links so I guess good job on writing all that financial fanfic.

It isn't the job of anyone else to provide linked footnotes other than the person making the claim. Why do you think others have to do research to prove your point?

 

[dbc]

I still don't see any links so I guess good job on writing all that financial fanfic.

lol you can easily baidu search the contents of my post and find its origin a Chinese government website. Here is the link to the report I cited published by the People’s Bank of China

http://www.pbc.gov.cn/goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/4190887/2021020821282167078.pdf

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

lol you can easily baidu search the contents of my post and find its origin a Chinese government website. Here is the link to the report I cited published by the People’s Bank of China

http://www.pbc.gov.cn/goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/4190887/2021020821282167078.pdf

See that wasn't so hard was it? Why did it take you so long for a simple link?

I have no duty to do anything that helps you in any way.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Try page 44 section titled 专栏 4 合理评估居民部门债务风险 It stresses the need to control debt fuelled consumption implying increased tightening of credit to the individual and household.
It acknowledges household debt is a problem and it highlights the need to curb debt fuelled consumption which is evident in the rate of default on credit card loans.

强化消费金融监管的背景下，居民债务增速已从前几年超过 20%放缓至当前的

15%左右，居民杠杆率上升的速度亦有所放缓。考虑到我国居民杠杆率中有相当

部分是具有自偿性的经营性债务，加上我国高储蓄率的“厚家底”、个人住房贷

款首付比例较高的“缓冲带”，以及居民债务高度分散、集中度较低的特点，我

国居民部门债务风险尚在可控范围。但也要看到，2011 年以来我国居民部门杠杆

率持续走高，2011 年末至 2020 年上半年的上升幅度超过 31 个百分点，居民债

务继续扩张的空间已非常有限，相关风险值得关注。

要高度警惕居民杠杆率过快上升的透支效应和潜在风险。一方面，部分负债

消费主体存在非理性，未来收入与还款支出不匹配，容易超过自身经济能力过度

借贷消费，埋下金融风险的隐患。另一方面，企业面对债务刺激出来的消费需求，

若扩大生产，则当未来居民债务不断攀升、偿付能力难以为继时，又会暴露出产

能过剩问题，与高质量发展的要求不匹配。与此同时，在我国消费贷款快速扩张

过程中，部分金融机构忽视了消费金融背后所蕴含的风险，客户资质下沉明显，

多头共债和过度授信问题突出。2020 年以来，部分银行信用卡、消费贷不良率已

显现上升苗头。

总体而言，加快构建新发展格局，要注重需求侧管理，坚持扩大内需这个战

略基点，激发国内消费潜力，但不宜靠发展消费金融来扩大消费。要坚持金融创

新在审慎监管的前提下进行，更多从促进就业、完善社保、优化收入结构、改善

消费环境等方面发力，始终把实施扩大内需战略同深化供给侧结构性改革有机结

合，增强消费对经济高质量发展的基础性作用。




really page 1 and 2 of the report already debunks your lie

中期借贷便利、再贷款、再贴现等工具，共推出 9 万多亿元货币支持

疫情防控形势和经济发展需要，分层次、有梯度出台三批次合计 1.8

Anyhow, from the data:

"强化消费金融监管的背景下，居民债务增速已从前几年超过 20%放缓至当前的15%左右，居民杠杆率上升的速度亦有所放缓。考虑到我国居民杠杆率中有相当部分是具有自偿性的经营性债务，加上我国高储蓄率的“厚家底”、个人住房贷首付比例较高的“缓冲带”，以及居民债务高度分散、集中度较低的特点，我国居民部门债务风险尚在可控范围。"

This doesn't say what you claim it says. You claimed acceleration of household debt. This specifically states a decreasing rate of rise. You claimed over leveraging. The simple text here states high savings and high down payments on housing provide substantial financial buffers. In addition debt is spread out across the economy. The summary statement further contradicts your claim, stating that consumer debt is easily controlled.

In addition the stimulus value as %GDP is still far lower than US stimulus value as %GDP.

So you post this to contradict your own claim?

 

[dbc]

Anyhow, from the data:

"强化消费金融监管的背景下，居民债务增速已从前几年超过 20%放缓至当前的15%左右，居民杠杆率上升的速度亦有所放缓。考虑到我国居民杠杆率中有相当部分是具有自偿性的经营性债务，加上我国高储蓄率的“厚家底”、个人住房贷首付比例较高的“缓冲带”，以及居民债务高度分散、集中度较低的特点，我国居民部门债务风险尚在可控范围。"

This doesn't say what you claim it says. You claimed acceleration of household debt. This specifically states a decreasing rate of rise. You claimed over leveraging. The simple text here states high savings and high down payments on housing provide substantial financial buffers. In addition debt is spread out across the economy. The summary statement further contradicts your claim, stating that consumer debt is easily controlled.

In addition the stimulus value as %GDP is still far lower than US stimulus value as %GDP.

So you post this to contradict your own claim?

Pay attention in 2019 the household debt to disposable income ratio was 120% which means a majority of households were already over leveraged pre-COVID. COVID made it worse.

The question isn’t weather household debt is serviceable but its effects on disposable income ..less disposable income = less consumer spending.