China to allow two children for all couples

[TaiShang]

I am not doubting the productivity increases Taishang. In fact there can still be a lot of productivity growth.

I am just saying these 4 things, please tell me if you disagree:

1. Productivity improvements keep getting harder as you rise in income. It is easier, to double GDP/capita from 1000 to 2000, then it is to double from 5000 to 10000, and far far more easier than to double from 15000 to 30000.
2. Economy= labor force* productivity
3. All humans are fundamentally capable of the same productivity. There can be some differences based on culture, institutions etc. but they are within 10%. (This is the reason, why all developing countries are continuously catching up with the developed ones, which are stagnant.)
4. Finally, the economy of a country will depend on Labor force, if there is a convergence of productivity, which is already happening, and is predicted to increase in the future.

Society is a dynamic organism, hence, you can always do fine adjustments.

There is nothing late in social/national life because overtime every anomaly can be corrected if there are right policies in place and a scientific-efficient government in place.

Rest assured, as much, if not more, studies have been done by the Chinese government on this issue way before the West suddenly discovered the population problem. China knows the situation and all the variables that a foreigner will never be able to grasp/know in their entirety.

***

Lifting one-child policy echoes people’s will
2015-10-29 23:26:13

Thursday saw China put an end to its one-child policy, allowing all couples to have two children for the first time since 1980. Among all the items detailed in the 13th Five-Year Plan, a communiqué formulated at the just-concluded Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, the all-out relaxation of the decades-long family planning policy quickly drew enormous attention.

The one-child policy was abandoned amid accusations and complaints, but its final judgment may not be that bad. The family planning policy managed to control China's birth rate, alleviating China's burden in resources and giving impetus to its economic takeoff. The one-child policy was subject to extreme evaluations, but only time can give it an objective judgment.

The lifting of the one-child policy is a decision made after thorough analysis of China's demographic structure. From the one-child policy to a two-child policy, the transition has been smoothly conducted step by step, which has successfully avoided an unsustainable baby boom and other social risks.

The new Five-Year Plan should be regarded as a triumph of the people's will, as many policies have echoed people's long-term appeals.

The 13th Five-Year Plan has endorsed, once again, a particular logic embedded in Chinese society-reasonable and widely-demanded appeals will be accepted by the administration and formulated as national policies.

The facts prove that people are widely involved in the process of policymaking. Every individual has the right to discuss national policies. The Five-Year Plan was laid down by both the elite and the grassroots.

The one-child policy has been castigated and cursed for quite a long time. Although rabid, many of these words pushed the policy to be reversed eventually. What bigotry can do is not always bad, but this will never represent the mainstream of society. More complications will emerge as pluralism has the upper hand in Chinese society.

The new Five-Year Plan convincingly shows the commitment of the ruling party to building a moderately prosperous society. China still lacks social equity in comparison with developed countries, but the Chinese government has tried its best to balance efficiency and equity in social development.

According to the Five-Year Plan, China's GDP in 2020 will be double that of 2010. The goal cannot be fulfilled if China doesn't improve many social aspects such as social security and environmental protection. Although China still faces pressure from an economic downturn, the government is still able to maintain its authority, which is a cornerstone of public trust in Chinese society.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Society is a dynamic organism, hence, you can always do fine adjustments.

There is nothing late in social/national life because overtime every anomaly can be corrected if there are right policies in place and a scientific-efficient government in place.

Rest assured, as much, if not more, studies have been done by the Chinese government on this issue way before the West suddenly discovered the population problem. China knows the situation and all the variables that a foreigner will never be able to grasp/know in their entirety.

***

Lifting one-child policy echoes people’s will
2015-10-29 23:26:13

Thursday saw China put an end to its one-child policy, allowing all couples to have two children for the first time since 1980. Among all the items detailed in the 13th Five-Year Plan, a communiqué formulated at the just-concluded Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, the all-out relaxation of the decades-long family planning policy quickly drew enormous attention.

The one-child policy was abandoned amid accusations and complaints, but its final judgment may not be that bad. The family planning policy managed to control China's birth rate, alleviating China's burden in resources and giving impetus to its economic takeoff. The one-child policy was subject to extreme evaluations, but only time can give it an objective judgment.

The lifting of the one-child policy is a decision made after thorough analysis of China's demographic structure. From the one-child policy to a two-child policy, the transition has been smoothly conducted step by step, which has successfully avoided an unsustainable baby boom and other social risks.

The new Five-Year Plan should be regarded as a triumph of the people's will, as many policies have echoed people's long-term appeals.

The 13th Five-Year Plan has endorsed, once again, a particular logic embedded in Chinese society-reasonable and widely-demanded appeals will be accepted by the administration and formulated as national policies.

The facts prove that people are widely involved in the process of policymaking. Every individual has the right to discuss national policies. The Five-Year Plan was laid down by both the elite and the grassroots.

The one-child policy has been castigated and cursed for quite a long time. Although rabid, many of these words pushed the policy to be reversed eventually. What bigotry can do is not always bad, but this will never represent the mainstream of society. More complications will emerge as pluralism has the upper hand in Chinese society.

The new Five-Year Plan convincingly shows the commitment of the ruling party to building a moderately prosperous society. China still lacks social equity in comparison with developed countries, but the Chinese government has tried its best to balance efficiency and equity in social development.

According to the Five-Year Plan, China's GDP in 2020 will be double that of 2010. The goal cannot be fulfilled if China doesn't improve many social aspects such as social security and environmental protection. Although China still faces pressure from an economic downturn, the government is still able to maintain its authority, which is a cornerstone of public trust in Chinese society.

You didn't reply: Do you disagree with any of the 4 things?


Also, I completely agree that policies can change things, which is especially true for China which can execute difficult policies.

And, I have no doubt that Chinese policy makers are looking at this issue and are aware of it.

But I think, that policy makers can also make mistakes. They are perhaps not emphasizing enough on this issue.

Japan did indeed do many mistakes in the last 2 decades, that many people now muse on. I hope 2-3 decades from now, China is also not musing over them like Japan.

Also, it is very hard for population trends to be corrected; look at Japan, or Korea, or Singapore.

That is why I recommend a policy determined by maintaining the labor force. So that all the productivity growth is reflected in GDP figures.

 

[Yizhi]

Okay man! I will post all my threads related to demographics here. Can you perhaps change the thread title to "China's Demographics"?

Also, listen to what I replied at start.

This is no doubt helpful. But not enough.

At the very least China must target to maintain its labor force, which is already declining.

why? you already started one with the exact same title if i remember it correctly. that did not stop you from flooding this section with similar posts though. i think this title is good enough for it implys major policy change, you can renew one of your old threads too if you like.

the 'not enough' part need future stats as proof. as i said more policy focus on incentives may come soon, or may not, it depends.

the labor part is also related to unemployment, in the past the pressure was on creating enough jobs for the super sized work force, now we focus more on increasing productivity with the help of science and tech.

we are not fundamentally disagreeing with one another. just i don't think it's as bleak as you make it sounds.

you should debate with the real hardcore 'one child' supporters in Chinese forum if that serves your interest. now that would be much fun..

 

[大汉奸柳传志]

2000 RMB per month for decent day-care here，having 2 kids definitely not so easy for mid-income families

 

[Zsari]

Economy= labor force* productivity

So if labor force increases, with the same productivity, the economy increases.

If labor force decreases, this puts downward pressure on economy, which has to be compensated by productivity growths.

But the catch here is that productivity growth is very difficult to bring in, and almost stops once you reach a certain level of development.

The other thing is that all humans are essentially capable of the same productivity which guarantees a convergence in human productivity across countries over time. So the size of the labor force becomes the determining factor.

The biggest problem people refuse to see here is that not only has China's population stagnated, and is set to decline in 10 years. The composition has also shifted. Which means that there are more of the aged. Hence, the reason why labor force has already started declining since 2013.

As for your daily issues of overcrowding. This all comes down to the infrastructure of the cities.

China should invest more in its first and second tier cities. It has underinvested in these, while over invested in small town and counties.

Economy = Employed labor force* productivity
All human are capable of the same productivity given the same level of education, training and experience.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Economy = Employed labor force* productivity
All human are capable of the same productivity given the same level of education, training and experience.

It is not necessary to measure employment, because that comes within productivity.

So a person who is not employed and does no work is not productive.

Here the productivity is the overall average of everyone's production.

 

[indiatester]

Congratulations!!!

 

[Jlaw]

I would think those who have to suffer through the traffic and shove and push their way through hordes of people everyday will disagree.

Pushing people in subway during rush hour is a common thing even in a city of 2 million people. Traffic jam is very bad where I live. Do not blame on the overall population for these things, blame the government and the business owners who insist everyone need to work and leave at the same time.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Pushing people in subway during rush hour is a common thing even in a city of 2 million people. Traffic jam is very bad where I live. Do not blame on the overall population for these things, blame the government and the business owners who insist everyone need to work and leave at the same time.

Absolutely. Traffic has limited relation to population. More about infrastructure etc.


Also, here we are already talking of a declining population with an increasing infrastructure.

 

[Zsari]

It is not necessary to measure employment, because that comes within productivity.

So a person who is not employed and does no work is not productive.

Here the productivity is the overall average of everyone's production.

As China move up the value chain and as technology improves, I see the requirement for labor will drop dramatically. And more importantly the limiting factor in an economy is the market, its running at saturation level globally. Increase of unemployed headcount would not help to bring the market up, but rather drag everyone else down.
Besides there are many ways to increase your labor pool without pumping up your population. Population control is a very long term process while demand and supply for labor fluctuates, one should not adjust the former for the sake of latter.

Pushing people in subway during rush hour is a common thing even in a city of 2 million people. Traffic jam is very bad where I live. Do not blame on the overall population for these things, blame the government and the business owners who insist everyone need to work and leave at the same time.

There are only so much you can do with infrastructure, and I think many Chinese cities are at the point of diminished return. Administrative means will only help somewhat as here in LA the traffic is not getting any better even though businesses does have "work from home" and "pick your own start time" scheme.

 

[Daniel808]

Congratulations, to Our Chinese Brothers
This is Really Great News For China Future Development


Hope in The Future, China Will Allow Dual-Citizenship, too.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

As China move up the value chain and as technology improves, I see the requirement for labor will drop dramatically. And more importantly the limiting factor in an economy is the market, its running at saturation level globally. Increase of unemployed headcount would not help to bring the market up, but rather drag everyone else down.
Besides there are many ways to increase your labor pool without pumping up your population. Population control is a very long term process while demand and supply for labor fluctuates, one should not adjust the former for the sake of latter.



There are only so much you can do with infrastructure, and I think many Chinese cities are at the point of diminished return. Administrative means will only help somewhat as here in LA the traffic is not getting any better even though businesses does have "work from home" and "pick your own start time" scheme.

You don't need to see further than Japan to understand that despite moving up the value chain, the demand of labor actually increases, not recedes.

It is because the economy has increased.

Look at it this way. In 1940 CHina had 400 million people, who were almost all employed in Agriculture, and still barely survived.

Today, there are 1.37 billion in China, who are employed in all sorts of fields, and yet, there are more jobs than there are people.

 

[liubang]

I am happy for the chinese. It was an extreme but necessary measure.
But if continue, it would destroy the culture and any culture for that matter.

If said just 2 generations of 1 child policy. Meaning a person of a 2nd generation wouldn't have uncles, or aunts, or cousins, or brothers, sisters, nieces, and nephews. That is unthinkable consider big family for a long time was the chinese culture.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

This is one of the answers that have come through on the family planning policies:

In Weibo, the majority of people complain and say they won't have a second child. Most people in Weibo belong to middle class. People say the government is manipulative and it wants to cajole people into having babies only because the government needs more working people. They think big cities like Shanghai and Beijing aren't fit for having a second child as raising children is very very expensive. They also contend that the status of women is about to be degraded because women would be forced to stay at home and the husband would be the sole bread-earner of the family, which financially weaken women's power.

There are also people who celebrate this change. As only children themselves, they argue that growing up as the only child is very lonely. Though they get all the love and attention, they envy those who have siblings.

But very very few people analyze why the government abandoned this policy. They don't really care that China faces this alarming demographic timebomb. China's fertility rate is dropping to 1.4 and the unwillingness to have children is spreading quickly among the young generation.

In my hometown, a small village in a relatively rich city, people don't think much about it. People used to be allowed to have a second child if the firstborn is a girl. People were willing to pay fine if they have more. The change doesn't make much difference.

Among my friends (college students), their reaction is :I'm only in my early 20s and I haven't got a boyfriend/girlfriend, in what way does this policy affect me? Of course, most of them plan to settle in cities and have only one child. They think being the only child isn't really a bad thing. Parents could shower all the love and money to this child.

As for myself, I don't think I will have two children. One child is really really enough. Raising a child is one of the most challenging task in one's life. If the government is really concerned about the working force, then develop the technology and improve the quality and efficiency of the labour. A government should put its citizens' life quality as the top priority instead of pursuing the socalled superpower status. That said, I think the government made a sensible decision by abandon one-child policy. Don't know if it's just my hometown or not, there are fewer and fewer children/teenage/young people now. Preschools/middle schools merge and merge due to the lack of pupils. Sometimes it's creepy to see a streets full of grey-haired grandparents at 'bazaar's day'. The grandmas dance to the blaring elevator music at playgrounds where teenagers used to play basketball and ping pang. As my mum commented, 'the streets used to be full of small children holding hands with old people but now it's just old people left'.

The playground used to look like this.

Now it looks this

Hope this helps​

 

[gambit]

I am happy for the chinese. It was an extreme but necessary measure.
But if continue, it would destroy the culture and any culture for that matter.

Let us say that it was necessary.

The problem is that once we concede that something is necessary, most people would dismiss further thoughts of consequences. They think that if something is necessary, it must have been a good thing and that any and every consequences would be equally good.

Putting aside the debate if the one-child policy was a 'good' thing or not, the long term consequences for China is serious, as in national security and culturally significant serious. The Chinese government can force women to abort, but it cannot force couples to have more children than the couples deems affordable, in other words, the Chinese government cannot force people to have sex if they do not want to.

So now there is a generation of Chinese who cannot afford to have more than one child due to economic pressures, they in turn will produce the next generation of Chinese who will live under the same social conditions and economic pressures. Now we are talking about nearly one hundred yrs of Chinese who grew up alone, as in no siblings, no uncles and aunts, and are comfortable with it.

Urban couples who have been raising one child all these yrs are not going to start boinking each other in joy with the new family planning policy. What is the Chinese government going to do, force companies to stop making prophylactics so that Chinese women will get pregnant ? Paying couples to have more children ? Historically, paying couples to have more children never had any real success.

When social scientists said that China will 'get old before she get rich', they said it out of hard experience, not fanciful speculations.