China should grow to World Bank High Income Definition around 2023

[onebyone]

China should become a high income country by the World Bank definition by about 2023. A high-income economy is defined by the World Bank as a country with a gross national income per capita US$12,236 or more in 2016, calculated using the Atlas method.

In 2016, China had a GNI per capita of $8260.

China GNI per capita should be about
2017 $8800
2018 $9300
2019 $9800 (about the current level of Malaysia
2020 $10200 (about current world average GNI per capita)
2021 $10800
2022 $11500
2023 $12100 (At about World Bank high income definition)
2030 $16000 (about the current level of Uruguay)
2040 $22000 (about the current level of Saudi Arabia)
2050 $29000-32000 (about the current level of Spain, Italy and South Korea)

Nextbigfuture thinks that China’s movement up the World Bank classification may shift the definition upwards. The definition was slightly higher 2012-2015.

China’s 1.4 billion people could more than double the population that is classified as being in World Bank high income countries.

This progress would put China just past the World Average of GNI per capita, past Malaysia and near the level of Poland and Hungary.

Xu Hongcai, an economist from the China Center for International Economic Exchanges projects by 2020, China’s economic growth rate of more than 6.5%, 2025 may fall to about 5%, 2030 may be only 4%, and then stable at 3% -4% for some time.


The Atlas method is a method used by the World Bank to estimate the size of economies in terms of gross national income (GNI) in U.S. dollars.

A country’s GNI in local (national) currency is converted into U.S. dollars using the Atlas conversion factor, which uses a three-year average of exchange rates to smooth effects of transitory exchange rate fluctuations, adjusted for the difference between the rate of inflation in the country (using the country’s GDP deflator), and that in a number of developed countries

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/...-bank-high-income-definition-around-2023.html

 

[onebyone]

High Income Country Population
brian wang | October 24, 2017 |

The total current population of high income countries (per World Bank definition) is 1.22 billion. A high-income economy is defined by the World Bank as a country with a gross national income per capita US$12,236 or more in 2016, calculated using the Atlas method.

The upper middle income countries that are growing and close to advancing to high income are


Turkey 80 million population
Malaysia 31 million population
China 1.38 billion population


NO INTIA superpower 2012 What the Hell is going on ?

 

[Mista]

The definition is too lax. The bar should be raised to $20,000 for a high income nation. Under the current definition, Argentina and Equatorial Guinea are considered high income. Venezuela and Panama are approaching high income status too. Seriously?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GNI_(nominal,_Atlas_method)_per_capita

 

[武成王]

The definition is too lax. The bar should be raised to $20,000 for a high income nation. Under the current definition, Argentina and Equatorial Guinea are considered high income. Venezuela and Panama are approaching high income status too. Seriously?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GNI_(nominal,_Atlas_method)_per_capita

I think the high income nation should be above $30,000, the average nominal gdp per capita of EU is $32, 059, this is a reasonable benchmark, US's is too high, South Korea is $27,539, a little bit low. EU average is relatively reasonable. Technically China will be 'developed' in 2050, a long march, boys!

 

[Mista]

I think the high income nation should be above $30,000, the average nominal gdp per capita of EU is $32, 059, this is a reasonable benchmark, US's is too high, South Korea is $27,539, a little bit low. EU average is relatively reasonable. Technically China will be 'developed' in 2050, a long march, boys!

$30K would mean Taiwan, Spain, and SK getting out of the club though.

 

[武成王]

$30K would mean Taiwan, Spain, and SK getting out of the club though.

Taiwan is definitely not very developed or high income region,its number is about $22,598 (2014). Spain is $26, 528 (2016), below the EU average, we should set a relatively high bar.
There probably a change in GDP calculation, and exchange ratio of Yuan, we already see such trend.

 

[Mista]

Taiwan is definitely not very developed or high income region,its number is about $22,598 (2014). Spain is $26, 528 (2016), below the EU average, we should set a relatively high bar.
There probably a change in GDP calculation, and exchange ratio of Yuan, we already see such trend.

That's because the price of goods in Taiwan are lower. It's GDP PPP per capita is at the same level as Germany.

 

[GeraltofRivia]

Even by 2050, the expected income will still be half of that of US, which will be higher by that time. This is a long journey and we need to work hard

 

[Menthol]

For my personal calculation, I'm using minimum wage standard, average income standard for working class, GDP per capita and PPP as the indicators.

 

[nang2]

whoever wrote this article got too much time in his hands.

 

[AViet]

Within a few years, every calculation can be wrong if RMB appreciate against US$, which is a very likely scenario. Even within 1 year, GDP per capita can be adjusted from 8,000 (now) to 12,000.

Currently, Greece and Portugal are considered richer than China, which I cannot believe, given that China is decades ahead in almost everything, especially its human quality. Something is clearly wrong in GDP calculation.

 

[武成王]

Within a few years, every calculation can be wrong if RMB appreciate against US$, which is a very likely scenario. Even within 1 year, GDP per capita can be adjusted from 8,000 (now) to 12,000.

Currently, Greece and Portugal are considered richer than China, which I cannot believe, given that China is decades ahead in almost everything, especially its human quality. Something is clearly wrong in GDP calculation.

You can't compare Greece or Portugal with China in any sense, the only meaningful comparison is EU vs China, or in a less extent, US vs China, the population of EU is 511 million, economy is 16.4 trillions. EU has no poor regions like e.g. Yunnan, Guizhou, Xinjiang, some mountainous areas in Northern and Southern China are still very poor, it's extremely hard for China to reach the development level of EU. 30 years is an optimistic estimation.

RMB will keep relatively stable, unless there's big change in geopolitics.

 

[Kai Liu]

You can't compare Greece or Portugal with China in any sense, the only meaningful comparison is EU vs China, or in a less extent, US vs China, the population of EU is 511 million, economy is 16.4 trillions. EU has no poor regions like e.g. Yunnan, Guizhou, Xinjiang, some mountainous areas in Northern and Southern China are still very poor, it's extremely hard for China to reach the development level of EU. 30 years is an optimistic estimation.

RMB will keep relatively stable, unless there's big change in geopolitics.

True. China right now is only partly developed. Rural regions although better than before, still have a lot of catch up to do to reach the level of developed world (see my post: https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/seei...hinese-cities-towns-and-villages-like.524372/ ). But the good thing is that with the 2% annual urbanization rate, within the next 1~2 decade(s), most people will live in the cities (currently only around 60%). Today, I would say 95% of young people are working in the cities, left mostly children and the elderly in the countryside. I would predict that vast changes will take place in the countryside brought about by another wave of land reforms, as a result of decreasing rural population as the older generation growing older. rural scene will become a combination of American style farms and recreational villages with in next 3 decades. Developed world 2050 is reasonable and realistic.

 

[Holmes]

Delusions......

 

[Kai Liu]

Delusions......

Come on, buddy, 30 years means a lot to China, unlike sleeping nation USA..