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China may see negative population growth after2020：expert
The fifth plenary session of the 18th Communist Party Central Committee is currentlytaking place and will result in the 13th Five-Year Plan. According to the original 12th Five-Year Plan, the aggregate population in China by the year of 2015 should reach 1.39 billion,with a natural growth rate of 7.2%.
However, statistics by the year of 2014 showed that the total population only reached 1.367billion with 5.21% natural growth rate. Based on this trend, the country’s population by2015 would only be around 1.374 billion, a fifteen million deficit of that was planned.
“The main reasons underlying the decreased natural population growth rate are the raisedmortality rate and plateaued fertility desires", said Li Jianmin, head of the Institute ofPopulation and Development of Nankai University.
Li pointed out that according to the current situation, the total population should bearound 1.4 billion after the 13th five-year plan by 2020, definitely lower than the originallyplanned 1.45 billion. Therefore, the imminent goal, including its annual growth rateobjectives, must be downgraded.
Researcher Zhang Yi of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences believes that with increasedlevels of economic and social development comes reduced fertility rate. Thus, the 13thfive-year plan should further relax on the policy of population control.
“The result of the current two-child policy yields a less than optimum number ofapplicants and production, so the original plan may be outdated and is subject to furthermodifications”, says Zhang.
Zhang further adds that the direction of the changes in population policy should focus lesson the restriction of growth, and more towards family support for those in need.
China applies a five-year period as a unit to mark the country’s short-term planning interms of its national, economic, and social development. The first five-year plan startedfrom 1953 to 1957.
China may see negative population growth after 2020：expert - People's Daily Online
The fifth plenary session of the 18th Communist Party Central Committee is currentlytaking place and will result in the 13th Five-Year Plan. According to the original 12th Five-Year Plan, the aggregate population in China by the year of 2015 should reach 1.39 billion,with a natural growth rate of 7.2%.
However, statistics by the year of 2014 showed that the total population only reached 1.367billion with 5.21% natural growth rate. Based on this trend, the country’s population by2015 would only be around 1.374 billion, a fifteen million deficit of that was planned.
“The main reasons underlying the decreased natural population growth rate are the raisedmortality rate and plateaued fertility desires", said Li Jianmin, head of the Institute ofPopulation and Development of Nankai University.
Li pointed out that according to the current situation, the total population should bearound 1.4 billion after the 13th five-year plan by 2020, definitely lower than the originallyplanned 1.45 billion. Therefore, the imminent goal, including its annual growth rateobjectives, must be downgraded.
Researcher Zhang Yi of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences believes that with increasedlevels of economic and social development comes reduced fertility rate. Thus, the 13thfive-year plan should further relax on the policy of population control.
“The result of the current two-child policy yields a less than optimum number ofapplicants and production, so the original plan may be outdated and is subject to furthermodifications”, says Zhang.
Zhang further adds that the direction of the changes in population policy should focus lesson the restriction of growth, and more towards family support for those in need.
China applies a five-year period as a unit to mark the country’s short-term planning interms of its national, economic, and social development. The first five-year plan startedfrom 1953 to 1957.
China may see negative population growth after 2020：expert - People's Daily Online
