CHAOS IN SOUTH ASIA - On the Brink

[fatman17]

CHAOS IN SOUTH ASIA - On the Brink.

Last posted:
2006-Dec-13


•South Asia continues to be buffeted by political turmoil fuelled by separatist or religious insurgencies, which are severely weakening government control across the region

•Moves by China and the US to gain influence in the region are regarded as potentially explosive
South Asia's military, political, economic and social problems defy easy solution and could descend into escalating conflict, reports Rahul Bedi

Nearly six decades after colonial rule ended across South Asia in the late 1940s, the region's seven states remain in restive ferment.

Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka continue to be wracked by political volatility, insurgencies or separatist and radical religious movements of varying intensity that make the sub-continent amongst the world's more volatile areas.

Collectively, these countries also face daunting environmental and social challenges, exacerbated by increasing economic disparities as growth rates rise, negatively affecting their deteriorating security situation. Security officials claim that severe poverty in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan has made it easier for radical groups to 'hire' people to hurl grenades for as little as INR1,000 (USD22).

A steady collapse of governance - either through a lack of democracy, dysfunctional democracy or both - and the resultant loss of control by individual governments over large swathes of their territory has hindered uniform progress and heightened regional insecurity.

The Maldives, a collection of some 1,200 mostly uninhabited islands in the Indian Ocean southwest of India, face environmental apocalypse: they are acutely vulnerable to a rise in sea levels related to global warming. None of the islands are more than 1.8 m above sea level and it is feared that, as ocean waters rise, the Maldives will simply disappear.

Further afield in Afghanistan, the bitter seesaw conflict and the re-emergence of the Taliban militia are adversely affecting neighboring states, particularly Pakistan and, to a lesser extent, India.

Analysts predict that the not entirely implausible prospect of an onslaught on Kabul by a re-grouped Taliban in 2007 could bring significant chaos to the area. While current indications do not point to domestic pressure forcing the near-term withdrawal of either the US or the multinational International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), this cannot entirely be ruled out as new political configurations and personalities assume office in the US at the start of 2007.

Significantly, Bert Koenders, vice-president of NATO's Parliamentary Assembly Political Committee, recently warned that its mission in Afghanistan could end in failure unless member states honor commitments they have already made to ensure its success. Koenders said in November that the mission in Afghanistan is at a "critical stage" and the alliance "must succeed".

"There has been a steady weakening of governmental control across South Asia, with vast areas simply falling off their map of governance," said Dr Ajay Sahni of the Institute of Conflict Management in New Delhi. This vacuum of authority - except for small, opulent enclaves where the elite live in gated communities - has largely been filled by radical and disruptive forces inimical to progress, Sahni added.

South Asia's precarious turbulence has been further aggravated by the development of atomic weapons by military rivals India and Pakistan following tit-for-tat nuclear tests in the late 1990s. The tumultuous relationship of these two countries in a large part determines the regional security environment.

India and Pakistan have fought three wars and an 11-week-long border engagement since independence in 1947. Currently, they are negotiating over contentious territorial, cross-border Islamic terrorism, nuclear, military, diplomatic and economic issues. A fourth round of bilateral talks is scheduled to begin in Islamabad in early 2007.

Adding to this cauldron of enduring crises is the "potentially explosive" entry into the area by China and the US, two competing world economic and military powers, which some analysts claim have virtually rendered the region their "strategic playground".

China, US seek influence

Analysts say Beijing and Washington are impacting the region's complex security architecture by fashioning strategic 'hub-and-spoke' ties with individual countries. For the time being, however, the two countries appear to be hedging their long-term investments against the possibility of a deterioration of ties and are awaiting the outcome of more immediate concerns in West Asia and Afghanistan.

Military planners in New Delhi said China and the US are "quietly expanding" their areas of strategic influence, particularly in the crucial Indian Ocean Region (IOR), which straddles the world's busiest waterways, by seeking to control choke points and trade routes essential to transporting the region's multiplying energy requirements. More than one billion tons of petroleum products annually traverse the Indian Ocean to meet Asia's proliferating energy needs.

"Anticipating the eventual stand-off between them, the US and China are engaged in building up proxies and allies in South Asia through a complex web of diplomatic and political alliances backed by economic and military hardware sops," a three-star Indian military officer who declined to be named.

Defense assistance programs, joint military exercises and training, intelligence sharing and reciprocal exchange of senior service personnel are also 'sweetening' these burgeoning alliances, he added.

Additionally complicating the regional security dynamic, however, is the one-off US-India nuclear agreement concluded in early December that allows Washington to pursue civilian nuclear commerce and related activity with New Delhi without India having to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

China and its close ally Pakistan are edgy over the accord, dubbed the US-India Peaceful Atomic Energy Co-operation Act, under which India has agreed to separate its military and civilian nuclear reactors, placing 14 of its 22 atomic installations under international safeguards.

New Delhi has cited fear of China (with whom India has an outstanding territorial dispute that led to war in 1962) as the trigger for conducting its five underground nuclear tests in 1998 as well as for a deterrent based on a triad of land-, air- and sea-based strategic weapons.

Furthering this 'strategic pro-activity', China and the US - along with the EU, Japan and South Korea - actively lobbied for and recently secured 'observer' status with the South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation (SAARC), which also admitted Afghanistan as its eighth member state at the Dhaka summit in November 2005.

Founded in 1985, SAARC is the world's largest economic and political organization, representing nearly two billion people. However, the ability of the organization to play a constructive role in harnessing the benefits of a unified regional economy, like other similar blocs around the world, and in fully integrating South Asia, has been held hostage for decades by the political and military rivalry between India and Pakistan.

Frequently postponed summits stand testament to the tension between the two states, which has often been high over the issue of the disputed northern Jammu and Kashmir province - divided between the two but claimed by both - and the interrelated matter of cross-border terrorism that Pakistan denies sponsoring.

Though other SAARC members have relatively less antagonistic relations with India, some fear that, the more integrated South Asia becomes, the more a 'bullying' New Delhi will dominate the region. Consequently, in many eyes, SAARC has become a mere 'talking shop' that meets annually in the respective capitals.

Meanwhile, other than cementing strategic, military and nuclear ties with India, the US has also courted Pakistan as a close ally in its fight against terrorism following the September 2001 attacks on New York and Washington.

In 2004 the US declared Pakistan a 'major non-NATO' ally and since 2001-02 has provided it with an arms package worth around USD5 billion that includes 36 F-16 fighters, P-3C Orion maritime reconnaissance aircraft and a range of precision ordnance.

US defense companies are also preparing to sell India hardware worth upwards of USD20 billion: 197 helicopters, eight maritime reconnaissance aircraft, possibly 126 multirole combat aircraft, military transport aircraft and 16 maritime helicopters. US companies such as General Electric and Westinghouse are also lining up to sell civilian nuclear power plants for large amounts.

The US also has burgeoning security links with Sri Lanka and is reasonably active in turbulent Nepal, where a Maoist-led revolution recently abolished the kingdom's centuries-old monarchy, and in Bangladesh, which faces turbulent elections in early 2007 as it grapples with Islamic fundamentalism.

In October the US called off maneuvers involving the US Marine Corps and the Sri Lankan Navy that were to be centered on amphibious landings and counter-insurgency operations and were regarded as being principally aimed at 'containing' growing Chinese hegemony in the region. The deferred exercises involving the 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit were to have been held around Hambantota in southern Sri Lanka, where the Chinese plan to build oil and harbor facilities and to repair the railway, all of which were ravaged by the December 2004 tsunami.

Earlier, under Operation 'Balanced Style', the US Navy's Sea Air Land (SEAL) commandos trained Sri Lankan Army and Navy personnel in security techniques. Indian security officials stated that a "preoccupied" US, fearful of losing strategic ground to China in South Asia, was working "closely" with New Delhi in attempting to resolve crises afflicting Nepal and Sri Lanka.

China, on the other hand, has evolved a 'string of pearls' strategy in the IOR by clinching secret regional defense and strategic agreements to secure its mounting energy requirements - projected by 2025 to become the world's second largest after the US - in addition to enhancing its military profile from the Persian Gulf to the South China Sea. Little is known about such agreements but, in one example, China is understood to have signed an agreement giving its ships berthing facilities in the Maldives.

Tightening its maritime security interests around India - which it increasingly views as a competitor and the US's 'Trojan horse' in the region - China is financially and technologically investing in developing Gwadar port on Pakistan's western Makran coast.

The US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, which effectively brought US forces to China's doorstep, triggered the speedy development of Gwadar port, with Beijing's help. Wary of the strong and mounting US military presence in the Central Asian region and the Persian Gulf - an area that provides over 60 per cent of China's energy requirements - and not possessing any significant blue-water naval capability, Beijing opted to build an alternate safe supply route for its oil and gas needs at Gwadar.

Pakistan, for its part, is committed to the project as it seeks strategic depth further southwest from its major naval base at Karachi, which remains vulnerable to the larger Indian Navy (IN). During the third India-Pakistan war in 1971, Karachi endured a debilitating IN blockade. Military planners in New Delhi are of the view that, once fully operational, Gwadar port could come to endanger vital Indian and US shipping routes in the Persian Gulf.

Take it or leave it

India has adopted what many considered a bullying approach to its neighbors, assuming a take-it-or-leave-it attitude because of its size and economic presence but, over time, such an approach has been counter-productive, leading India's neighbors to look to China and even Pakistan for military help.

China's four largest arms buyers remain Pakistan, Bangladesh and, to a lesser extent, Nepal and Sri Lanka (Colombo is currently in talks on buying defense equipment worth USD60 million). "Beijing's active diplomacy places it at the center of most South Asian security issues," a Western diplomat said.

In November, India and China pledged to end their long-standing border dispute and to double bilateral trade to USD40 billion by 2010. India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Chinese President Hu Jintao, holding the first summit in a decade, said settling their frontiers were a key priority as economic links deepened between the world's two most populous countries.

The neighbors have been engaged for nearly 25 years in what is possibly the longest-ever border negotiation between two countries, but are nowhere close to clinching any agreement. New Delhi accuses Beijing of occupying 38,000 km2 of India's territory while Beijing, in turn, claims 90,000 km2.

Adding to the region's instability are India's seemingly insurmountable security issues with Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka. It also has unresolved minor territorial disputes with all its neighbours except Bhutan and the Maldives.

New Delhi is displeased with growing Maoist power, influence and control in Nepal's provisional government and with Bangladesh for allegedly allowing Muslim terrorists to use it as a base for anti-India operations. Dhaka denies all such allegations.

In war-ravaged Sri Lanka, which is on the verge of relapsing into civil strife, India remains a mere spectator, despite Colombo's pleas for military and diplomatic assistance. New Delhi is hostage to the domestic political concerns of over 60 million Tamils in southern India and scarred by the ignominious withdrawal of its expeditionary force from Sri Lanka in 1989 after it failed to disarm Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) guerrillas; as a result, India has been unable to sign a bilateral defense agreement with Colombo for nearly three years.

The Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan, with a population of 2.4 million facing internal security problems from ethnic Nepalese, and the Maldives, where President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, Asia's longest-serving leader, stands accused by human rights groups of running an autocratic state, are the only two regional states with which India has cordial relations.

China, meanwhile, has silently developed security links with the Maldives and has launched an aggressive military and diplomatic thrust, backed by a developmental and commercial drive, in Myanmar, which India is presently trying to counter through large arms transfers, economic engagement and infrastructure projects.

Beijing is helping Myanmar to modernize a clutch of its naval bases by building radar, refit and refueling facilities capable eventually of supporting Chinese submarine operations in the Andaman Sea and the IOR. Official sources have confirmed that China has even established a signals intelligence facility on the Cocos Islands, 30 n miles from India's Andaman island archipelago, reportedly to monitor Indian missile test firings from the eastern Orissa coast: an activity that has proliferated since its 1998 nuclear tests.

Pakistan has also supplied Myanmar with several shiploads of ordnance and military hardware over the past decade. Pakistan, one of a handful of countries to support Yangon's military junta after it seized power in 1988, also trains Myanmar's soldiers to operate Chinese tanks, fighter aircraft and artillery.

In addition, recent Chinese infrastructure projects such as the Beijing-Lhasa railway and the proposed road network into Nepal are seen by India as a threat to its regional primacy.

In response, India has activated road-building programs in some of its northeastern states bordering China and announced schemes to upgrade infrastructure in this largely neglected but strategically critical Himalayan region.

"Peace in South Asia will be elusive until external inputs to conflict-generation from the US, China and other outside players cease," retired brigadier Arun Sahgal of the United Service Institute stated these have the potential of destabilizing the region's developing economies by inducing a competitive security environment, which these countries can ill afford, he warned.

The prevailing internal chaos across South Asia determines the region's security imperatives and, according to leading defense analyst Brahma Chellaney of Delhi's Centre for Policy Research, is largely dictated by India's "messy relations" with its neighbors and the porous borders it shares with them.

India is fighting at least 14 terrorist and separatist movements of varying rigor and intensity, many with cross-border support and ramifications, in addition to Kashmir's widely publicized 17-year-old insurgency.

Over the decades, these lesser known 'wars' have claimed thousands of lives, destroyed properties and rendered millions homeless. They have also stifled development in tribal regions and have needed the deployment of security forces, including the army, to combat them at great cost.

This, in turn, has led to the self-perpetuating cycle of widespread human rights abuses and the imposition of draconian laws, further exacerbating social tensions and driving innocent victims to bolster militant cadres.

India's internal chaos

Security officials privately admit that the writ of the Indian state does not run across large parts of the northeastern states of Nagaland and Manipur, which border Myanmar, where dozens of armed separatist groups operate parallel administrations to which even the provincial governments defer. The ubiquitous 'underground' controls numerous 'liberated zones', to which the police and the paramilitary forces rarely venture, unsure of being able to retain control for long.

The rebels levy monthly taxes from locals, including civil servants, politicians and even the police, and indulge in extortion and kidnapping, issuing receipts for all collections. These run into millions of rupees, which are duly audited and balance sheets published in local newspapers.

Worse conditions prevail across large portions of 160 of India's 602 administrative districts in 14 of India's 28 states, where Maoist rebels are on the ascendant. Earlier in 2006, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh admitted that militant Maoists had seized control of the "instruments of state administration" and their 'People's War' was India's "biggest" internal security challenge.

In neighboring Pakistan, the authorities exercise limited control over the western Baluchistan province, parts of neighboring Sindh state and portions of North West Frontier Province (NWFP). However, they have little or no control over the seven largely lawless and semi-autonomous federally administered tribal territories (FATAs) on the Afghan border.

Earlier in 2006, a beleaguered Pakistan Army signed a controversial agreement with pro-Taliban militants in North Waziristan after losing hundreds of personnel in trying to quell them, but has failed to contain the guerrilla groups. Taliban fighters regroup in the FATA belt before crossing the Durand Line, the unformulated demarcation between Pakistan and Afghanistan, to attack the US and ISAF forces in a bid to regain control.

According to the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG), Pakistan has experienced three decades of corruption, drugs, military rule, rising Islamist extremism and a general decline in education and health standards. The country is ruled by the military - some 1,200 serving and retired officers run a web of banks, transport, road building, communication facilities and construction businesses worth billions of dollars - and much-needed social, economic and political reforms have faltered.

"Religious extremists play an increasingly important role in providing education and other services to the poor, resulting in the radicalization of areas of the country," the ICG states. The 2007 elections, it adds, will be crucial in deciding whether Pakistan continues on this path or whether moderate forces assert themselves.

Meanwhile, around a third of Sri Lanka to the north and east of the island republic is physically controlled by LTTE rebels, waging war for a separate homeland since 1983, in which over 65,000 people have died. LTTE cadres monitor entry to these regions through heavily manned check-posts. Inside the enclaves, the LTTE manage the local administration, running schools, collecting taxes, dispensing justice and even operating a bank. The Sri Lankan government continues to partially finance the LTTE regions, but has no say in their administration.

Sri Lanka's near-constant state of war, which has erupted in all but name following the 2002 ceasefire and has claimed over 900 lives since December 2005, has rendered the island republic South Asia's most militarized region.

According to the Mumbai-based Strategic Foresight Group (SFG), Sri Lanka, often described as "paradise on earth" and "pearl of the Indian Ocean", has 8,000 military personnel for every million citizens, the highest ratio in the region. In its analysis, 'Conflict in Sri Lanka', the SFG declares that Pakistan, ruled by military administrations for a large portion of its 59 years of independence, has only half that number: 4,000 military personnel per one million of population. The statistics for other South Asian countries are: Nepal 2,700; India 1,300; and Bangladesh 1,000.

In military spending as a percentage of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Sri Lanka spends more than all its neighbors: 4.1 per cent. Pakistan allocates 3.5 per cent of its GDP to defense, India and Nepal 2.5 per cent and Bangladesh 1.5 per cent.

Meanwhile, taking declining state control and the attendant changing demographic patterns across large areas, security officials and analysts do not entirely rule out the possibility of South Asia's geographical boundaries being redrawn.

Professor S D Muni, formerly of the School of International Relations at Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University, said this "alteration" in population patterns will dramatically manifest itself over the next two to three decades, bringing with it enhanced turmoil and problems of ethnicity. "Borders remain an open question," he cautioned.

Security experts said Baluchistan province is one such vulnerable area, where the native Baluchis are fast becoming a minority as a result of the continuing influx of Pashtun refugees from war-torn Afghanistan. Analysts say resentment among locals is also fuelled by the Pakistani government's deliberate policy of settling outsiders from the dominant Punjabi community in the sparsely populated but vast and resource-rich desert province in order to 'dilute' Baluchi numbers.

In turn, analysts believe the Baluchi unrest could 'kick-start' the long-running but presently dormant separatist movement launched by the Muttahida Qaumi Mahaz (MQM or United National Front) in neighboring Sindh province.

The MQM was formed nearly three decades ago by Urdu-speaking migrants from northern and eastern India who moved to Pakistan at independence. Currently aligned with Pakistan's ruling party, the urbanized MQM has no strong religious ideology, but is committed to gaining additional power for Sindh's Mohajirs or migrants.

Line in the sand

Triggering potential Baluch and Sindhi separatist movements could be the long-running Pakhutistan movement for a Pathan-dominated region straddling the NWFP and southern Afghanistan. The widely disregarded Durand Line, drawn arbitrarily in 1893 by Colonel Durand and casually agreed to by Afghanistan's ruler Amir Abdur Rehman, has, over the years, kept alive the Pushtunistan issue.

This 'line in the sand' satisfied the colonial craving to define the boundaries of the British Empire, making the tribal areas the buffer between the settled British territories (NWFP and Punjab) and Afghanistan, should Russia move on Kabul. However, the tenuous border failed to divide the Pathans or stifle their desire for independence, which, despite frequent intra-tribal feuds, has survived to the present. Belonging to over 80 tribes, the Pathans are a semi-nomadic people with over 15 million living in Pakistan, including the tribal areas, and around 11 million in Afghanistan. Though Pathan tribes and sub-clans are forever in conflict, they invariably unite when faced with a larger threat, like that posed presently by Pakistani and Western forces.

Apart from Baluchistan, the FATAs, NWFP and Sindh, Pakistan is only left with Punjab, its largest and most prosperous province, in a region where geographical boundaries have often been redrawn via conquests and political agitation, almost always with disastrous consequences.

"A nuclear Pakistan is the region's wild card, whose future is tied to the rest of the world," Chellaney asserted. The sub-continent's division into predominantly Hindu India and Islamic Pakistan by the colonial government in 1947 led to the largest migration in history and sectarian rioting in which over a million people died.

The resolution of India's dispute over Kashmir and its borders with China retain the possibility of territorial changes, despite New Delhi vehemently opposing any such prospect.

The issue, however, is further complicated by Pakistan having transferred a large portion of the disputed Kashmir principality to China in 1963. Its settlement, for now, defies resolution as the territory is strategically crucial to Beijing, which is highly unlikely to hand it back to India, leading eventually to a re-drawing of maps.

India's northeast is another vulnerable region, where Federal Home Ministry officials claim that over 300,000 Bangladeshis, mostly Muslims fleeing unemployment, poverty and political instability, stream in across the porous frontier, upsetting the area's demographic balance. Dhaka denies there is an outflow that exacerbates tension between the neighbors.

According to official estimates, there are over 20 million illegal Bangladeshi migrants across India, confined mostly to the border states of Assam, Bengal and Tripura, where, over the past four decades, they have changed the demographic profile, leading to economic, social and sectarian tensions with the majority Hindu community. In Tripura the local tribal population that was in majority in 1952 is today a minority community, swamped by Muslim Bangladeshis. Federal Home Ministry officials estimate that Assam will become a Muslim-majority state by 2032 at the prevailing growth rate of illegal migration.

A former Assam state governor, retired Lieutenant General S K Sinha, declared in a report to the federal government some years ago that, if allowed to continue, Bangladeshi migration might even lead to the "severing" of the northeast from India and give rise to Islamic fundamentalism. The illegal migrants were aided by Indian political parties, who nurtured them as 'vote banks', ensuring their domicile by providing them with identity cards and citizenship documents.

India's maritime boundaries with Pakistan and Bangladesh are also unresolved. The dispute with Pakistan centers on the oil-rich Sir Creek area along India's western Kutch region. Pakistan favors a demarcation line closer to the eastern shore, which, when extended into the sea, would give it a greater chunk of the continental shelf abounding in hydrocarbons. A joint survey of Sir Creek is being conducted and security officials are optimistic that it may soon be resolved.

Meanwhile, India and Bangladesh both lay claim to New Moore/South Talpatty Island and the oil-rich delta of the Ganges and Brahmaputra.

In the early 1980s, this dispute led to a stand-off between three Bangladeshi gunboats and an Indian survey ship in the area. It ended with New Delhi dispatching a frigate to the island to scare off the Bangladeshi Navy in a move that further increased regional resentments against India.
India's Foreign Minister, Pranab Mukherjee, told parliament on 6 December that India has no control or access to 111 enclaves in Bangladesh, spread across 17,158 acres, which it lays claim to, while Bangladesh lays claim to 51 enclaves in India, covering 7,110 acres. Both have agreed in principle to exchange these enclaves, but declining relations have hampered any settlement.

© 2006 JIG

the article remains largely true even today

 

[deltacamelately]

One really wonders, are we the people of SA destined for peace or chaos in the not so distant future?

Life pulls on, as some of us warily watch the unfolding of regional and international dynamics...

 

[fatman17]

One really wonders, are we the people of SA destined for peace or chaos in the not so distant future?

Life pulls on, as some of us warily watch the unfolding of regional and international dynamics...

the people's of SA dont put enough political pressure on their leaders to make the kind of moves which will push us towards peace instead of chaos - the establishments of our countries are clearly 'entrenched' and clutching to the past - in other words maintain the status quo because in it is their survival.

 

[notorious_eagle]

It is because the people are not aware of their political and democratic rights. They still don't know the power of the ballot box. The political ignorance of an average Pakistani is simply appalling. The politics is very personalized, its not based on issues or policies but rather on the person, kinship and clan. This is why the people cannot hold the rules accountable for their policies.

Coming back to the topic, the chaos will continue unless there are confidence building measures among all the parties involved. Unfortunately the well entrenched status quo have enough clout to block the liberal intellectuals, this is why there is hostility among all South Asians. It is due to this hostility, external powers are able to exploit the differences. But i must also acknowledge that although there might be hostility, we have not stooped down to try and ethnically cleanse the other side. Whatever bloodshed that we have seen in South Asia is much less compared to that seen in Europe, East Asia and Africa.

 

[haviZsultan]

Chaos can only be stopped with order. If there is no order there is chaos... its as natural as the clouds and the sun... Order is a must. And it must be constant. If the law is not implemented due to self-interest and/or corruption... it is the fault of those authorities responsible.

Pakistan and India need to both work on establishing a powerful police force that never takes part in any form of injustice. There are social ills like drug use the police continually uses. In Karachi the police claims to have a 50% rate for capturing militants... the real figures are said to be much lower and I believe the other figures.

Let us improve on our strength as a Nation and strengthen its institutions.

PS. I focused on the police force specifically... because theirs is the main resonsibility other than that of the government

 

[fatman17]

Chaos can only be stopped with order. If there is no order there is chaos... its as natural as the clouds and the sun... Order is a must. And it must be constant. If the law is not implemented due to self-interest and/or corruption... it is the fault of those authorities responsible.

Pakistan and India need to both work on establishing a powerful police force that never takes part in any form of injustice. There are social ills like drug use the police continually uses. In Karachi the police claims to have a 50% rate for capturing militants... the real figures are said to be much lower and I believe the other figures.

Let us improve on our strength as a Nation and strengthen its institutions.

PS. I focused on the police force specifically... because theirs is the main resonsibility other than that of the government

police & justice to be precise - as administration of justice is the strongest pillar of government.

 

[deltacamelately]

Chaos can only be stopped with order. If there is no order there is chaos... its as natural as the clouds and the sun... Order is a must. And it must be constant. If the law is not implemented due to self-interest and/or corruption... it is the fault of those authorities responsible.

Pakistan and India need to both work on establishing a powerful police force that never takes part in any form of injustice. There are social ills like drug use the police continually uses. In Karachi the police claims to have a 50% rate for capturing militants... the real figures are said to be much lower and I believe the other figures.

Let us improve on our strength as a Nation and strengthen its institutions.

PS. I focused on the police force specifically... because theirs is the main resonsibility other than that of the government

The police problem is common to more or less all the SA countries. The police force is corrupt to the heel. They serve the political class as an appendage and some are even mentors of upcoming crminals. The IPC/CRPC is a joke, it is more of a Colonial relic. I am sure it must be more or less similar in Pakistan as well.

 

[fatman17]

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Managing the unwieldy policing system

By Inam Waheed Khan
SSP Motorway Police.

Motorway Police is the most organized & disciplined Law Enforcement Agency in Pakistan.


For almost 66 years now police has been made a target of ridicule and criticism for its non-professionalism and petty bribery issues that constantly haunt and provoke its leadership to come up with developing new rules of engagement with public. After all, it’s for the public this force has to deliver and it’s the tax payer’s money that it draws its salaries from. However, there seems to be a variable shades of opinion about how to make this force more professional, honest and target oriented ( in terms of service delivery ). These opinions erupt from number of policing styles that make this effort to improve the performance challenging. These opinions include : hard core managerial style ( which only include measuring the targets achieved ), soft core managerial style ( which is more community oriented and less offensive towards accountability ) and then there is modified style in which most police officers try to fit in by adopting a mid-way.

The question that logically comes to mind is: are any of these styles effective? If the answer to this question could have been ‘yes’ we would not be having this discussion. There is a constant confrontation between political leadership and police hierarchy as to what has police done to satisfy the vast and varying voter base of political parties despite increasing salaries. Police is caught between devil and the deep sea. Devil, being its stubbornness to identify its new role and sea, being giving in to political demands without thinking of moral and legal consequences. In order to adopt any style of policing and identify the new role of police, this research looks into the issues police management is facing. These include: ground realities of constabulary police at police unit level i.e. police station, assimilation of technological advances in archaic system of policing, political intervention, firefighting instincts vs. fire preventing instincts, customer satisfaction and customer handling concerns, lack of confidence on senior hierarchy, poor follow ups, lack of hard work and understanding the base level issues of police stations. We will discuss these issues one by one and will also try to come up with solutions of general acceptance and adaptability in a piece meal manner as well as discussing general rules to be adopted for running effective managerial set-up.

Ground realities of police constabulary:

The police force at ground level works in an environment of friction, confrontation, fear, harsh realities of court procedures as well as greed of either compulsion or by nature. One can imagine in such a scenario expecting too much from a force is unrealistic and uncalled for unless the managerial officers understand these factors and adopt a policy of making the environment more conducive for operational policing by improved briefing of force and making them realize that senior hierarchy understands their concerns and will support on legitimate base. Thus, legitimacy should form the new base for confidence gaining of constabulary. Police constabulary needs to be told that confrontation with public whether they are complainant or accused will only make their neutrality doubtful as well as environment prone to political interference. They also need to be given assurance as long as their stance is neutral there can come no harm to them. Most investigators in police stations due to their lack of training and knowhow of practical policing work, need radical training .Their programs needs to be redrafted and their assessments be taken on constant basis. Encouraging those who have done well in these training programs will give others reason to work even harder. By experience most managers don’t go to that level thereby making mockery of their command in courts as well as at different public forums. Thus, a realistic schedule of training for the constabulary can serve as a fresh start. Stress on this point is essential because all our policing issues stem from combination of factors like incompetence, and morality issues.

Morality issues need to be addressed on case to case basis first by establishing the nature of accusations and digging out facts by ascertaining motive for wrong doing. Here the onus mostly lies on inquiry officers who are often approached , pushed by immediate management or are incompetent to handle the inquiry and are unable to come up with facts. Training as well as strict accountability of these officers is also essential. One solution to this can be by identifying the facts by doing preliminary probe and then giving inquiry officer a restricted mandate within which he has to work. These measures though seem very petty and require more effort on managerial level can always provide road map for satisfactory re-dressal of grievances at base level.

Some officers might argue that we have not mentioned resource constraints as one of the biggest hurdles and we are afraid to admit that we have resource constraints. However, by experience most police officers will confirm that it’s a story of mismanagement or embezzlement rather than resource constraints. We agree that conditions are not ideal for constabulary resource wise but then we must remember ours is a developing country. We must not expect much from top when there are legitimate resource constraints at top level as well. After all, police stations are homes of constabulary as well as their immediate seniors. Whatever budget comes needs to be fueled towards improvement of constabulary environment, therefore, making them recognize that senior management is serious and they are doing whatever they can. The constabulary needs to be taken into confidence and told that they have to deliver with in the resource constraints as well as contribute by improving service delivery. However, a check on embezzlement of resources within the hierarchy is essential. It’s not just trust that solves this issue but transparency within the department is more important and vital as the nature of policing becomes more aggressive so do the transparency of transactions for betterment of constabulary become relevant for improved performance.

Lack of introduction of technological advances in policing working style:

Third world countries have the luxury of introduction of technological advances without being part of the progress. Therefore, they have been thrust upon technological advances that are difficult to resist. However, there seems to be lack of understanding in these developing countries about how to make use of technology in daily routines as well as in improving job skills. Policing work is no exception. Apart from putting computers in police stations and using the office software for typing and printing, there has been less stress on first accumulating the data and then analyzing it with certain qualified programmers. This may seem little unconventional and hard to implement but actually it’s not. Senior police leadership at their level do use computers to accumulate data and but less stress is given on police unit i.e. police station to develop their own data base for analysis and logically proposing solutions. This issue results from a common weakness that typists are usually encouraged to use computer rather than requesting computer software engineers from community to come up with tailor made soft wares for a police work up with in police stations.

The question remains:

how do you introduce technology in police units when the majority of police force is ill trained and incapable of understanding the consequences of introduction of this technology? The answer is simple ‘training and more training’ in this field as the officers learn to adopt targeted strategies by using technology. In every police unit introduction of technology can only be successful if senior managers take pain to brief the police subordinates of the advantages of using technology for the betterment of police. Even in investigation of cases the precedents already fed in the computers can provide help in tracing the case on same lines. On the similar lines, every police officer has a cell phone which in itself can prove effective in coping with different issues like taking snaps of mobs, making videos of offenders and recording vital confessions. Again, this is not difficult but the managers have to take pain to make their subordinate realize the importance of this gadgetry. In addition, GPS coordinates in a mobile phone always lead to exact point of action. This facility is now available in majority of cell phones and can help a lot in formulating a strategy of raid if used with goggle maps. This again seems hi-fi but in actuality with little training it can help a lot in organized plan of actions. Digital mapping of the police area can pay dividends if some line of action has to be adopted in specific area. Similarly, encouraging community especially shop keepers to install CC TV cameras can help in reducing the crime. Having said this, the managers have to ensure that they make the police units check these cameras on constant basis.

So much technological advances are being made right now from using computer to mobile streaming of data that we can go on and on but again stress lies on the shoulders of management to take advantage of technology as per requirements of the area. The most important thing in this field is the identification of police personnel who are interested in IT grooming and then making arrangements for their training in coordination with IT colleges. A constant training schedule is chalked out in this regard thereby creating human resource for IT field. Interestingly, data with regard to introduction of IT in police departments of advanced countries is freely available on Internet. However, one must keep in mind that as gadgetry is expensive and there genuine budgetary constraints, participation of community can prove more useful.

Political intervention:

This is one of the biggest excuses that we come up with while running police set up. When we say ‘excuse’ it means we often site it as the biggest hurdle. The truth is that it is a reality but there are coping techniques to counter political intervention. First of all we must accept the truth that we are living in a nascent democracy where the voter base is dependent upon bradari system and to win vote means the politicians intervene in individual issues as part of bradari votes, therefore, we must remember it is inevitable.

What we forget is that what is in inevitable on their part is not a compulsion on our part. We must not deny them the opportunity of presenting the complaints of public when they are elected people and this honor has been bestowed upon them by general public. Therefore, we must accept their intercession as a positive gesture as in times of extreme violence and mob mentality they are the only saviors police can look up to. However, having understood this, it does not mean that we accept illegitimate demands. Modern thinking provides room for negotiation till the demand reaches legitimate level. This requires humility and constant contact without compromising principles of integrity and rule of law.

However, the police managers have a tendency to fight with public representatives especially if their integrity is par excellent (without realizing that when we have high level of commitment to principles of morality it no ways means ruling like colonial officers). Moreover, we must remember that most seasoned politicians do not go beyond certain limit. In some cases, when the demands of politicians become unreasonable, may be its time for the police hierarchy to raise the level of engagement i.e involving more senior hierarchy of police leadership. In an environment of free media things are mostly transparent if the contacts with media of police station unit are built on fair grounds of engagement; situations are often diffused before ballooning. In exceptional cases, when things get out of the hands due to high handedness of politicians sanity only prevails when the police leadership takes stand on legitimate issues. However, if the senior hierarchy will keep on neglecting the responsibility of protecting the staff on genuine cases then the police work stands still.

In spite of this we should also understand that as the democracy matures these issues become less and less in number due to political maturity and continuity of democratic filtration of political leaders. In democracy sometimes we don’t get educated minds but we can certainly help them being trained by being more open, transparent and courteous thereby giving no indication at any time of being stubborn and a snob.

Adopting pro-active style of policing:

We are all aware of this approach but none of us actually get it implemented due to laziness as well as lack of understanding what it actually means. Since 1980s there has been a new theory in town which is known as ‘broken window theory’. This theory can be explained by giving an example: if we let a building with certain number of broken windows remain as such then there is a possibility of more windows being broken, then at an advanced stage of being becoming squatters. After that there is possibility that the place will turn into dwelling where drug addicts and criminals may start gathering. Hence, there is a reason to believe that in such a case chain of events start which would promote crime. In this way, petty negligence becomes part of bigger events. Thus, it was suggested that a more aggressive style of policing may be adopted which would take in to account even smallest of occurrences and addressing it there and then rather than getting a brunt of bigger event i.e. crime in community. The theory has its limitations when applied to diverse areas but mostly it stands correct. Police by its nature of job has to look out for smaller skirmishes that can often become bigger offences like murder, rape, robbery, theft etc. Therefore, adopting preventive acts and use of legal means for small incidents can help in re-dressal of grievance at smaller level. This style of policing is adopted in most advanced nations with changing techniques in order to adapt to ground realities. Similarly, in our country urban and rural policing preventive measures have to be tailor-made according to the needs as well as ground realities of typical area. Managers are not there to become proactive on their own but they have to train the police subordinates to become more pro-active. Thus, most strategies adopted in prevention are workable only if they come from police unit rather than trickling from above. This is for simple reason that police units are more aware of their surroundings and conditions in which they have to work than higher level of management which is lesser aware of base level problems. Knowing the right person for right job is a managerial skill but doing it depends on how good the person understands the theory of proactive policing which again depends on how the police officers at ground level are briefed.

Customer satisfaction and customer handling issues:

Police department is like any other organization that provides service to public. However, unlike other organizations it has different dynamics. In the customer base, there is variation of public available i.e. victims, witnesses, stake holders like sectarian leaders and of course the general public who routinely get to visit police unit out of compulsion like for making character certificate, registering entries for lost and found things and delivery of information for petty to serious crimes. However, the suspects and arrested are not treated as customers as there exists some confusion on account of treating the customers. Police department in our country has colonial legacy and customer satisfaction and customer handling are rather new concepts for it to absorb. Yet, customer orientation is the new buzz of the day.

The question then arises:

how do you satisfy a customer when it approaches police department for re-dressal of grievances and further to what extent you handle the customer in a professional manner? Since, it is in the nature of police department to show friction and aggression when it comes to customer-police relationship, first priority should be to brief police units to change their attitude towards public even if they know that the visitor is a habitual complainant and knows all the weaknesses of the police force. Yet, this is the thread line difference that makes police force a police service when it starts listening to what others have to say about police itself or other people in community. Organizations that have developed customer satisfaction indicators and have started devoting their time in continuously improving their performance on customer satisfaction indicators have shown remarkable success. This argument compels us to follow suit and adopt a charter of some kind to gauge the public satisfaction vis-à-vis police performance. For example the NSW (New South Wales) police have adopted a charter named as ‘Customer Service Charter’ that clearly states the purposes of formulating a charter and also explains the services variety. On similar bases our management must do the same and brief police units about this new trend and make it to be part of their strategy in public interest.

As part of customer satisfaction there is customer handling part that needs to be addressed more urgently. This is so because people who visit police units do so out of compulsion need to be told that they are welcome to visit police stations for their issue and they should be given assurance that as long as there is issue is legitimate there concern would be addressed promptly with a proper feedback mechanism. However, there is little problem when it comes to confronting an aggressive media because media often makes the department defensive rather than frank and open due to fear of being thrashed for no fault of their own. Police officers’ fear is genuine to some extent because often for petty issues strong actions are taken either by the ruling politicians or by senior police hierarchy to save themselves of becoming directly responsible for some issue. Still, there are ways to handle such high handedness of media by adopting transparency and contacting myriad number of media fronts. This ultimately disseminates the situation and rationality prevails.

Lack of confidence on senior hierarchy:

It is perhaps the most vital factor that ails our policing mechanism. There is a general feeling among junior subordinates that in time of crises, senior hierarchy tends to be as deceptive as possible. This is not entirely right or wrong but can something be done to improve this is entirely possible. In current scenario, our country is going through a transition phase, vibes of which are felt at all stratum of society but most changes are directly or indirectly always effecting police department. Be it media or judicial activism or just more awareness of common man of their newly unexplored revelation i.e. that police are accountable to public as well , is challenging colonial style of policing. Public at large now has free mandate to greater extent in urban areas to point out harsh realities being faced by common man in our police stations. This has exposed most brutal of our policing mechanisms and people have started questioning even the legitimate procedures of police work. This means police at massive level is now bearing the brunt of public. Petitions of poor man are being looked at by the courts with more vigor and determination. Decades of vacuum created by our irresponsible behavior is resulting in judiciary and media taking charge and making us realize our failures and ignorance’s of the change in society (that has now entered into a transition from nascent to premature democratic setup)

In this scenario, the obvious response from senior hierarchy should have been adopting ways to brief their subordinates more effectively and introduction of more strict internal accountability mechanisms for police service. Having said this management’s response is a simple knee-jerk reflex consisting of strict disciplinary actions being taken on subordinates without even establishing fact finding inquiries. As the response is in a slipshod manner, the ultimate result of disciplinary actions is respite from courts as the inquiries carried out could not establish much due to inherent faults. Thus, there is enigma: our subordinates are being given punishments for fear of exposing ourselves to public and since there is an element of guilt at senior hierarchy due to their own managerial failures there is seen an urgency towards giving punishments to subordinates thus creating a void of competence. These officers when re-instated by courts are entering into policing frame work with a different mindset. The subordinates now realize that perhaps the best chances of survival lie with adopting a non-loyalist approach towards department where even the official documents of investigation can be disclosed if you have the right kind of approach or essential money to grease the palms of these greedy investigators. This is the reason why increasing salaries have done little to enhance the performance of police service.

The new approach now requires to see the problem with a new angle in which managerial police officer must remember that either he or she has to become more competent to identify the inadequacies in police work or become part of the problem. A little more will be commented on competence issue later. Yet, the immediate measure that requires our attention is morale boosting of police personnel as their deteriorating confidence on senior hierarchy exposes the faults at senior levels. Our leadership must understand that if we want to win back the confidence of our force we must first win their hearts by setting personal examples of professionalism, integrity, hard work and welfare. Only then our demand for loyalty from police constabulary seems genuine. Weak stances often lead to weak decisions which in longer run have the potential to wreak the police command as a whole. Yet, genuine stances are to be guarded under principles of fair play and justice.

Poor follow ups:

The middle managerial level demands for proper follow up procedures for most practical police work. At this level, one has to manage things, not actually do things therefore all that is required is proper follow up for different assignments carried out in police stations. A proper follow up of case for example can save a manager from lot of humiliation in courts and at different public forums. However, where we lack? The fault lies with the mechanisms adopted for follow ups which often become a routine matter and are not self-evolving. Thus, we create some follow up procedure which has become rotten in rush of work and seldom provides room for improvement after a certain period or when the event necessitates. Similarly, some oft repeated follow ups keep on carrying the burden of past events thus making the exercise of follow up a mockery. In the end, all that is required is nominating a ‘whistle blower’ that points out a need for improving the mechanism. The managerial skill, however, would require identifying the right person for the job.

Lack of hard work and understanding the base level issues of police units i.e. police stations:

There is a dire need for hard work at managerial level only then one can understand the base level issues prevailing at police units. The colonial legacy of mere supervision needs to be shed and modern style of proactive and participatory style of police work is required to be adopted at all levels of police hierarchy. Until every command level performs its own work, there is a distinct possibility of improvement in policing frame work. Hard work done in public interest is very satisfying and rewarding in the longer run. The compulsions of job require that in order to establish good standards one has to sacrifice time and energy. Fuelling this energy with integrity and professionalism can do wonders. However, legal parameters are to be adhered otherwise it would be an exercise in futility.

General rules of managerial set-up:

Every manager is unique and has the capacity to view policing in his own distinctiveness. A solution, therefore, should emanate from own working style. Some managers may agree to the identity crisis of our service and some may disagree. But, for common man, things have changed drastically. Their view of police as repressing tool has not only enhanced but has also provoked them to start questioning the legitimacy of different police actions regardless of their legality. We should take this view in to account while formulating rules of engagement with public.

The new managerial styles demands that police subordinates be given more space and freedom to come up with new set up of strategies. Controlling the lives of subordinates via wireless or cell phone only creates panic and anxiety, thereby, taking away the initiative. Such tendency has to be now changed.

In courts, most issues that become a source of embarrassment are in 90% cases related to faulty investigations. Therefore, logically in this scenario, all chain of investigation needs to sit on common plat form starting from investigator to prosecution and strategy be drawn to improve this weakness.

Senior management should now understand that role of a manager should not be modified from management to becoming a station house officer. It is therefore important that delegation of powers be assigned from managerial level downwards as to make things wieldy.

Crime control in area is one of the primary duties of police but in no way crime figure depict the performance of police. Areas as advanced as USA and UK do not have low crime rates. Affluence and poverty only changes the dynamics of crime. Yet, in most crime meetings the performance is measured from crime figures. We are not suggesting that crime figures should not be assessed but should into account overall picture of law and order. The crescendos and diminuendos of crime should be seen in broader period of time.

A senior manager has duty to be as patient as possible. He or She should be open to suggestions. Improvement in organizations comes when its members are ready to listen what others are saying about it. Of course, it no way means passing beyond the parameters of legality.

Welfare aspects of police service are perhaps the finest tools available to make constabulary realize that there senior hierarchy are serious in their intent to look after them.

The senior management works in an environment of political attrition and bradari system. There is bound to be clash of interests. In such a scenario role of manager keeps on changing from negotiator to police officer. However, in field duty nothing is personal. Therefore, sanity should prevail as long as the legalities are catered for by the politicians but as the situations become grave the managers should learn to say no at some level when undue pressure is built up.

In the end, above analyses reveal that most issues of police service are result of failure of senior managers to realize that ground realities of policing have since long changed due to democratization of society. In this phase, realities are harsh when one is in field duty but there is no denying the fact that there are islands of excellence which shows that improvement is possible. However, to achieve such success one has to become professionally sound. One has to raise the level of morality by self-setting examples, engaging the ground level constabulary and serving in public interest for aims of creating society that itself owns good values and negates bad ones.

(The writer is SSP motorway)

 

[deltacamelately]

I have my resevations that such styles of policing can be forced down the gullet of our existing force. It will at best require a properly managed and slow evolution. One can not expect overnight change to a system, wherein one is forced to pay cash just to lodge a simple FIR most of the times. Bakshish they say.

 

[fatman17]

Motorway Police was started from scratch with no previous baggage or history and its been a success considering the corruption prevailing in the other police forces.

 

[notorious_eagle]

The police problem is common to more or less all the SA countries. The police force is corrupt to the heel. They serve the political class as an appendage and some are even mentors of upcoming crminals. The IPC/CRPC is a joke, it is more of a Colonial relic. I am sure it must be more or less similar in Pakistan as well.

Sir

I am not sure about the police in India as i had very minimal interaction with them during my stay in Delhi for the 3rd ODI, but the police in Pakistan is as corrupt as they get. Just recently i have had a lot of interaction with the police due to a fraud case in our office, quite early on i picked up that the police officers were just prolonging the case and were trying to milk both the parties. An average citizen who does not has any political or influential backing usually avoids going to the police because it invites more trouble instead of help.

@fatman17

I completely agree with you. Motorway Police is indeed an ideal force, but unfortunately we lack the political will and financial resources to implement a system like that nationwide.

 

[fatman17]

I have my resevations that such styles of policing can be forced down the gullet of our existing force. It will at best require a properly managed and slow evolution. One can not expect overnight change to a system, wherein one is forced to pay cash just to lodge a simple FIR most of the times. Bakshish they say.

delta the problem is that no one is wanting to 'properly manage' this change. they say behaviourial change requires 8 weeks to break a bad habit and that requires constant reminding.

the police officers should be appointed / selected in the same manner as armed forces officers are inducted in the service academies. there should be a national Police Academy and all eligible candidates should go through a written/oral/medica and psycological exam before they are selected for the police academy - 2-3 years of training in police matters they should be able to earn their BSC in the various police descplines. then they should be posted out to the various thanas or precients - no involvement of the politicians - until we dont de-politicize the police - no change friends - they will remain a 'pawn' at the behest of the waderas and jagirdars.