What's new

By 2030, South China Sea will be ‘virtually a Chinese lake,’ U.S. study warns

All of the earth's surface water being an american lake for decades already

LOL, a US study or a biased US writer's opinion?

american propagandist just give a stimulant shot for south east-asians to fear china, and hate china
 
At long last, the South China Sea is living up to its name.

:rofl::rofl::rofl:

It said the United States should sustain and expand its military presence in the Asia Pacific, as well as accelerate efforts to strengthen the capabilities of its allies and partners.
.
Well, you need to have money for this. It is easier said than done.

This is difficult if your economy is not growing fast enough.
 
Last edited:
Vietnam Objects to Chinese Oil Rig in Disputed Waters
By MIKE IVESJAN. 20, 2016

HANOI, Vietnam — The Vietnamese government has lashed out against the presence of a Chinese oil rig in the disputed waters of the South China Sea, the latest in what Vietnam says are a series of provocative actions by Beijing this month.

While the dispute raised tensions between the Communist neighbors, there were no signs yet of the heated escalation that characterized a similar episode in 2014, when relations between the two countries plummeted and anti-Chinese demonstrations spiraled into deadly riots.

Late on Tuesday, the Vietnamese Foreign Ministry said that Haiyang Shiyou 981, the same rig that was at the center of the 2014 feud, had entered dispute

The rig was still 25 miles from an “assumed median line” between the two countries, the statement said, but it was in “an overlapping area between the two continental shelves” of Vietnam and Hainan Island, China, which “has not yet been delimited.”
 
This "lake" has been peaceful largely according to our history, barring ww2 - japan, skirmishes between China and Vietnam, and a few brushes among the fishermen

It will be peaceful under our rein as usual, all FON will be guaranteed until unbearable provocations for us to take actions.

images

.
 
.
U.S. Navy Tests China Over Sea Claims
U.S. officials say operation was first of several to assert ‘freedom of navigation’ around the Spratlys islands
By GORDON LUBOLD and ADAM ENTOUS in Washington, and JEREMY PAGE in Beijing
Updated Oct. 27, 2015 10:47 p.m. ET

A U.S. Navy patrol off artificial islands in the South China Sea was the strongest challenge yet to Beijing’s ambitions to enforce its territorial claims, but the maneuver was carefully calibrated by the White House to try to minimize provocation.

The Obama administration, under mounting pressure to counter China’s efforts to alter Asia’s geopolitical status quo, sought to make a statement without escalating the conflict. According to U.S. officials, that decision came after months of wrangling among the Pentagon, State Department and the White House over how aggressively to assert “freedom of navigation” around the disputed islands.

Late Monday, the guided-missile destroyer USS Lassen sailed within 12 nautical miles of Subi Reef, one of seven rocks and reefs in the Spratly chain on which China has built artificial islands. The U.S. considers the area international waters, and fears China is trying to enforce territorial claims and gain greater control over major shipping lanes.

Critically, the White House chose to breach the 12-nautical-mile boundary around an artificial island built on a reef that was previously submerged at high tide. Under international law, nations can claim territorial seas of up to 12 nautical miles from their coastline, including natural islands and rocks. They cannot make such claims around reefs submerged at high or low tide, even if they have been turned into islands through land reclamation.

Some officials said a more pointed option, which the White House hasn’t exercised, would have been to sail within 12 miles of artificial islands built on what was previously a rock.

“Subi Reef was almost certainly selected because it is a low-tide elevation,” said Andrew Erickson, an expert on China’s military at the U.S. Naval War College.

China’s response was relatively restrained Tuesday: Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged the U.S. not to take “reckless action.” Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Yesui summoned the U.S. ambassador to China, Max Baucus, to express that the sail-past was an “extremely irresponsible action,” the official Xinhua News Agency said.

Two Chinese warships, including a guided-missile destroyer, followed and issued warnings to the U.S. warship during its patrol, China’s defense ministry said.

China says it has “indisputable sovereignty” over all the South China Sea islands and their adjacent waters and that its artificial islands will be used for civilian functions, such as weather monitoring, as well as military purposes.

Underlining the sensitivities, the White House didn’t officially confirm or deny Monday’s move. White House spokesman Eric Schultz said “the freedom of navigation operations serve to protect the rights, freedoms and lawful uses of the sea and airspace, guaranteed to all nations under international law.”

In another hedge, military officials said the patrol also challenged territorial claims by other countries in the region.

When the Chinese started building up the islands around early 2014, the U.S. military and the Obama administration weren’t sure how to respond. Adm. Samuel Locklear, who at the time led the U.S. military’s Pacific Command, raised concerns about a naval challenge to the Chinese claims, current and former U.S. officials said.

The admiral “didn’t want a one-off,” a senior U.S. official said. “He wanted a strategy.” Adm. Locklear’s concern was that the White House would opt for a one-time challenge only.

The tone shifted with a changing of the guard in Washington. When Ash Carter took over as defense secretary in February 2015, he singled out the Spratly Islands as a priority. In May, Adm. Locklear was replaced by Adm. Harry Harris, who was more hawkish on challenging China, current and former officials said.

Before flying to Singapore where he met with the Chinese, Mr. Carter said the U.S. would “fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows,” though he offered no specifics.

Current and former officials said White House National Security Adviser Susan Rice was particularly cautious about a military response to China’s island buildup, worried a show of force could undercut talks with Beijing on other critical issues, such as cybersecurity.

Ms. Rice ordered what officials described as a rigorous review of the military options, not only of the proposed freedom of navigation mission but also the history of any similar U.S. naval maneuvers in the chain.

As part of that review, Ms. Rice asked the Pentagon to produce extensive documentation about past operations in the area. The review concluded the Navy had conducted six naval passes since 2011 in the South China Sea, including three around the Spratlys and three around the Paracels. That helped the administration to paint Monday’s action as routine, officials said.

Mr. Obama decided to postpone any operation before Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit in September, and instead issued a warning while standing alongside Mr. Xi in the Rose Garden. Officials said the last thing the White House wanted was to make the state visit all about the islands.

Mr. Obama approved the operation following Mr. Xi’s visit, officials said. Aides said Mr. Carter wanted to back up the administration’s commitment to “fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows” before both he and Mr. Obama visited the region this fall.

“It was meant to be a demonstration that we mean what we say,” a senior U.S. official said.

When the destroyer moved into the zone on Monday, the Chinese warships shadowing it kept a distance of a few thousand feet in an otherwise uneventful operation, U.S. officials said.

The destroyer heard a communication on its radio in which someone told the ship’s captain to “stay away from our island,” a U.S. official said. The official said that the radio frequencies used in the region often contain chatter and it was impossible to confirm where the voice came from.

“It’s like driving down Interstate-40 with a CB radio,” one official said.

Pentagon officials said the military would continue its freedom of navigation operations, in both air and sea, in the South China Sea. “Our intent is to keep doing it,” a senior Pentagon official said Tuesday.

If the U.S. continues with such patrols, Mr. Xi will face mounting public and internal pressure to take firmer action on an issue he has made central to his “China Dream” of establishing the nation as a great world power.

For Beijing, the patrol was especially provocative as it came during a meeting this week of the Communist Party’s Central Committee—its top 300 or so leaders—which is seen as a test of Mr. Xi’s political standing.

China is highly unlikely to scale back its construction work on the islands and could respond by sending civilian ships, rather than military ones, to track or confront U.S. Navy vessels, analysts said.

“This way, China can issue a firm response to the U.S. while signaling that they don’t want to escalate the situation militarily,” said Huang Jing, an expert on Chinese politics at the National University of Singapore.

For years, U.S. policy toward China has been torn between thinking it will play by the rules or that it will become an adversary, but neither narrative is exactly true, said Adm. Dennis Blair, a retired former U.S. Pacific Command commander now chairman and chief executive officer of Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA.

“As a consequence, we have been very reluctant to confront China on individual actions,” he said, adding that the Obama administration has trouble seeing Beijing in more realistic terms. “We just have to deal with them as they are, big, tough and aggressive but rational, and I think the administration just hasn’t made that adjustment yet,” said Adm. Blair.

—Chun Han Wong in Beijing contributed to this article.
 
I think US "Pivot to Asia" policy to containing China is largely useless. There would be no war between US and China, as both are nuclear-armed and can assure mutual destruction. The probability of a war between China and any neighbouring countries such as Philippines, Vietnam or Japan is also very low. Maybe just some skirmish at most. As a result, US stirring up trouble in East and South China Sea cannot do any substantial harm to China, except causing some “diplomatic embarrassment” to China.

China would still concentrate on developing and solving the domestic thorny problems such as air-pollution and the large gap between the rich and poor. Of course China would also increase the military power to make sure that there are no military conflicts with others.

As to US deploying heavy military force in the first island chain around China, it is just a waste of money since no war would break out. As the proverb says “a punch in the air”. So the US strategy of containing China is a failure from my point of view.
 
As to US deploying heavy military force in the first island chain around China, it is just a waste of money since no war would break out. As the proverb says “a punch in the air”. So the US strategy of containing China is a failure from my point of view.
It is not a waste of money. US military presence is the reason why no war will break out, whether it is between the US and China, or between China and anyone else in the region.
 
It is not a waste of money. US military presence is the reason why no war will break out, whether it is between the US and China, or between China and anyone else in the region.

What is the reason China didn't go to war with Vietnam? US may support Vietnam at this point, but it hasn't gotten to a point where US is willing to fight for Vietnam. What is the reason with Myanmar, they actually killed our civilians in within our borders.

China isn't going to war with anyone. Not right now anyways.

But on your point let's say that is true. China spends 1.4% on military, the US 4%+, conservative estimates China will cross US GDP at around 2030 at the latest.

At around 2030, the US cannot hope to spend more on defense than China in the Pacific theater, without digging ever further into its coffer.

How is this not a delaying tactic at best and a waste at worst. Since China's position was always parity in the pacific by 2030, parity globally by 2049, a date far in the future anyways.
 
What is the reason China didn't go to war with Vietnam? US may support Vietnam at this point, but it hasn't gotten to a point where US is willing to fight for Vietnam. What is the reason with Myanmar, they actually killed our civilians in within our borders.

China isn't going to war with anyone. Not right now anyways.

But on your point let's say that is true. China spends 1.4% on military, the US 4%+, conservative estimates China will cross US GDP at around 2030 at the latest.

At around 2030, the US cannot hope to spend more on defense than China in the Pacific theater, without digging ever further into its coffer.

How is this not a delaying tactic at best and a waste at worst. Since China's position was always parity in the pacific by 2030, parity globally by 2049, a date far in the future anyways.
Deterrence is not about parity, even though parity of forces is utmost desirable.

Rather, deterrence is about making the adversary believe that a war will -- not could -- be damaging enough that even if the adversary win, he will sustain enough damages that he will suffer in other areas such as depleted resources, weakened economy, loss of manpower, and vulnerability. Back in the Cold War, NATO never had physical parity of forces with the Warsaw Pact, but the technological bias towards NATO sort of balance out that physical inferiority. That bias was acknowledged by the Soviets as late as the Raygun-Gorbachev summit in Reykjavik. The Soviets have always believed that if unleashed, NATO technological superiority would be greater than that of Warsaw Pact tanks over NATO tanks.

Am not saying that VN can wring out enough men at arms to convince China that could not win, what I am saying is that VN can present enough of a deterrent to convince China that even if China win, the PLA will -- not could -- be so weakened and that China will experience an economic depression and vulnerability that China will not go to war against VN and alliance, if any, because of that fear. I have to bring up this point again, but that the PLA's leadership is still intellectually smarting after their spectacular failed analysis of US military performance in Desert Storm. The PLA made that analysis based on the perception of its own forces, warfighting doctrines, and combat efficiency of its troops, and project that onto the Iraqi army.

It is always easy to estimate one's own forces. Easy to the point of overestimation. But much more difficult when it comes to an adversary. If China underestimate US in Desert Storm, who is to say that China WILL NOT underestimate VN ?
 
Back
Top Bottom