Britain will have to "think again" about staying in the EU?

[waz]

There's more or less the same amount of EU citizens living in UK as is UK citizens in the EU. With the added caveat that UK citizens are largely elderly and EU citizens are largely younger and still in labor force.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5cd640f6-9025-11e3-a776-00144feab7de.html#axzz3rDlmX2Xm

Revealed: thousands of Britons on benefits across EU | UK news | The Guardian

The table also shows that far more Europeans are claiming benefits from the UK, than British folks are in Europe. The whole "much more in benefits and allowances in the wealthier EU countries" is a ridiculous play on words, when the actual stats show that Europeans as a whole benefit more from the UK. As for Ireland, we have given each other similar rights of living, working and retiring in each other's countries, way before the EU single market formed. That's why British people are concentrated there. I haven't even gone into how many millions of Irish people have benefited from working in the UK, particularly in the big cities of London, Birmingham and Liverpool.

 

[Audio]

when the actual stats show that Europeans as a whole benefit more from the UK.

I don't think you can back that up with numbers. Money wise, not how many people receive benefit. For what you know it could all add up to be around the same if for example a UK citizen in France receives 3 times as much as a French (or any other) in UK.

Would be interesting to see this number.

 

[waz]

When was there ever enough money for everyone?

The same can be said for every state in the world. The point is that we see so much going out, that can be put to better use.

The economic and financial costs and benefits of UK's EU membership inquiry - UK Parliament

2nd PDF, at the very bottom

Great statement from the good professor, so the UK government has wasted money, and if the EU wastes it, it doesn't matter. Wow. The fact remains there is far more accountability now and the electorate is better informed. You can't leak billions without there being an uproar.

Factsheet 2 - Benefits of EU membership outweigh costs - CBI

Look, am not in the mood of going around hunting for numbers atm, i'll just say i don't think you'll leave.

[/QUOTE]

Well, they don't. I'll agree to disagree with you. Let's see what happens.

I don't think you can back that up with numbers. Money wise, not how many people receive benefit. For what you know it could all add up to be around the same if for example a UK citizen in France receives 3 times as much as a French (or any other) in UK.

Would be interesting to see this number.

It's there on the link you provided. Our benefit system, especially that portion of spending administered by central government, then the UK is at the top, in Europe’s league table for benefits spending.

 

[livingdead]

Silo my friend, with each coming year the UK is reducing its level of exports to the UK and increasing them to trading partners around the world. There will be no trade isolation, this is scare mongering. Free trade agreements will stay remain in place and the UK buys more goods than it sells to Europe. We have one of the most dynamic consumer markets in the world, you don't stop trading with that.
The British people are firmly aware of the consequences and the country did very well before the EU. There are a multitude of reasons for leaving the UK. If the reforms however are accepted, then the bulk of the people may decide to stay.

without europe UK will be a petty small minded country. They will also remove all human right laws and replace with their 'superior' british laws. You can guess what is going to come next.
The free movement of people itself is wonderful, one day you are in dark and wet england, next day you are in spain dancing with eurochics... using irish cheap jet.. what not to like about it..
I am talking to y'll young ppl.. vote with your dix/vaz.... vote no.

 

[Audio]

It's there on the link you provided. Our benefit system, especially that portion of spending administered by central government, then the UK is at the top, in Europe’s league table for benefits spending.

But that's total number, including UK citizens. It would be interesting to see the number EU citizens receive in total in UK and vice versa.

 

[waz]

without europe UK will be a petty small minded country. They will also remove all human right laws and replace with their 'superior' british laws. You can guess what is going to come next.
The free movement of people itself is wonderful, one day you are in dark and wet england, next day you are in spain dancing with eurochics... using irish cheap jet.. what not to like about it..
I am talking to y'll young ppl.. vote with your dix/vaz.... vote no.

No it won't. It will galvanise and reach out to the world. The world's leading states are itching to sign agreements with the UK, but put off with the red tape that comes with being in a bloc, where you speak for one, which in itself is illogical, considering the vast differences there are. Those "British" laws gave the Magna Carta, the first real charter of liberties in Europe, ended slavery (way before the Europeans), gave women the vote and so on. I love those laws and hold them dear to my heart.
The free movement of people amongst states is fine, provided it is controlled, and other states are up to par regarding their GDP per capita. The whole chilling in Dublin, holidaying in Spain will go on, as it did when I went, and that was before greater integration.

 

[xenon54 out]

I hope we do bloody leave! The EU is a debacle. Lord god, just look at the finances.

The term sinking ship comes into mind.

It's not up to the government, it's up to the people. The referendum will be an vote to get out. The feeling amongst the British people is one of anger and just simply enough is enough. Anyone thinking those "reforms" will happen is living in cloud cuckoo land. The hedge funds are firmly behind the "out" vote. You know when hey get involved the big guns have come out. The current pot for the campaign stands at £87 million, with the "in" campaign having virtually nothing. Oh they do have Tony Blair running their campaign, remember him? Not many people want to.

Why sitting in a full boat if you can have your own speed boat?
@mike2000 is back

 

[oproh]

lol. You seem to be overestimating yourselves and your Russian friend ALOT. Who told you the E.U IS SLIGHTLY AT PAR with Russia and China Do you even know what you are talking about? European powers are still more advanced/developed/ahead of both you and your Russian friend, and they have more world military reach/influence than both of you even today. You seem to be leaving a dream world were you think only your diminished Russian friend and you are the real boss running the show.

Keep dreaming.

 

[Audio]

@waz

Still, in a country convulsed by the arrival of some 10,000 migrants a day, the fact that Britain might flounce out of Europe over such a vague list of complaints seems odd. AsThe Economist went to press, David Cameron was about to write to Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, setting out his asks; incorporating the concerns voiced by Mr Osborne in Berlin as well as a bid to curb migrants’ right to claim benefits. In other words: Britain is about to demand things that are variously symbolic, uncontroversial and already in train—but with plenty of noise.

Why, then, is it making such a fuss? Blame Mr Cameron’s commitment in 2013 to reconfigure Britain’s EU membership ahead of a plebiscite by 2017. His problem is that the “renegotiation” has unveiled a story too pro-European to chime with the British public. It started with the Balance of Competences review, a grand bid to identify fields in which “Europe” had too much power. This was launched to great fanfare in 2012, but its final report (a fine, detailed study of the Britain-EU relationship) was buried because it concluded that the balance was broadly right. Since then talk of “renegotiation” has given way to that of “reform”. The hope for imminent treaty-change to accommodate London’s wishes has faded. British officials sent to Brussels have found that, on balance, membership is good for Britain, that other members share the country’s objections and that, where they do not, the gripes in question do not justify Brexit. The country’s current situation has been found to be infuriatingly satisfactory.

Yet reality is only incidental to British debates on Europe. According to the Eurobarometer survey, voters in Britain are the second-worst informed of any electorate in the EU. Only 5% of senior Eurocrats are British (down from 13% in the 1980s). A lack of interest in the EU defines the country’s public attitudes towards it; ludicrous tabloid claims about Brussels—playing on Britons’ love of an eye-roll—define the outlook of otherwise yawning voters. This mix of indifference and mythology also applies to the political elites: in Westminster the European Scrutiny Committee is often unable to meet because it is inquorate, while some in the German commentariat are more aware of Mr Cameron’s Balance of Competences review than are their British counterparts. So Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne dare not claim that, on reflection, the country’s EU membership is fine. They must instead pretend that their ongoing support for it depends on the outcome of the renegotiation. They are in hand-to-hand combat with a phantom; charging towards a straw man as if he were made of steel.

Wrestling with smoke

There is nothing new about this. The recent history of Britain’s dealings with the EU is defined by politicians’ attempts to reconcile the messy, imperfect but broadly positive reality of membership with critical caricatures of it at home. In 1984 Margaret Thatcher boasted about defying Europe over Britain’s budget rebate when she had actually compromised. In 1997 Gordon Brown imposed five arbitrary economic tests on the country’s prospective membership of the euro. Last year Mr Osborne claimed he had cut Britain’s contribution to the EU budget, without mentioning that this concession had been pre-agreed. Only a few British leaders—including, to his credit, Tony Blair on a good day—have done the sensible thing: challenging the misconceptions and championing the essentially benign reality of EU membership.

Therein lies a lesson for Britain’s partners, especially Germany. They should take the country’s Euroscepticism with a pinch of salt. Even Mr Cameron, the most anti-EU prime minister in decades, recognises the value of the union. But so distorted is the picture voters get that he must deal with the EU as it is perceived rather than as it exists. So let politicians in Paris, Brussels and Berlin coo at the audacity of the negotiators from London. Let them cheer the British ministerial delegations with their complaints. Let them credit Britain’s electorate with reforms already in the works—and hope that future generations of the country’s politicians are more frank with it than were their predecessors.

http://www.economist.com/news/brita...e?zid=307&ah=5e80419d1bc9821ebe173f4f0f060a07

 

[mike2000 is back]

The money isn't peanuts, it can be used within the UK. At this point in time there are cuts to policing, teaching, the NHS and so forth. That's a hard pill to swallow for many Brits, whilst billions go to the EU. As for the money it can provide, the level of world trade for the EU has fallen. In the month of June, trade figures read Just 45.1pc of the goods that the UK exported, that month went to the EU, down from 52pc in the previous year. The world around us is becoming more important.
The Standard ran a piece on the hedge funds. I'll scan it and put it up here. I used to work in the city, and there is real anger at the curbs the EU is trying to impose on our financial market. That's also part of the reform agenda.

I think there is ALOT of things you don't understand about our intetests, the implications of leaving, the links we have with the E.U and the world at large. I once had a similar debate online with others, There are things many people dont understand, So i will take my time to explain things more in details, it migt be a long one. lol

Many of the arguments against the EU are based on misconceptions or are downright wrong. A good example is people who confuse ECHR (European Court of Human Rights) with EU -- eg comments on giving prisoners' votes.
Anyone who says that(and there are many of them.lol)shows that they do not actually understand the subject. To be fair though, the UKIP does say they want to leave ECHR and cancell Human Rights Acts, but most people are not so clear.

Secondly, If we are comparing two things, we need to say what it is we would do instead.
Most people(like you) saying "leave the EU" never spell out what they actually mean: they portray an unrealistic "everything is perfect" hypothetical. Of course, a politician trying to sell an idea never gives all the details but it is notable just how few details for example UKIP say about the key element in their platform. What specifically are they proposing (isolation? EFTA? EEA?).
Many of the optimistic scenarios ("Have my cake and eat it" / "free trade with Europe but no restrictions: have all the benefits but we don't have to pay for any of them".lol) demand that the EU signs up to them enthusiastically: that is not guaranteed , the hell its not even credible. I think this can be explained by a few factors like Others ignore reality (i.e to get access to single market Norway & Switzerland pay fees - indeed, Norway's are higher per person than UK's). This is no trivial matter either.
So i will summarise the main reasons for not leaving :

The primary one is economic in nature.you do know that the essential basis of the EU is free trade: there are other bits, but that is fundamental. If we leave we lose that already

The vast majority of UK trade is with the EU (approximately 50%; our next biggest single market is USA at 15%). So those are immediately at risk.
The whole point of a free trade area is to make trade easier within it: if you are outside then the obvious corollary is that trade is harder. (This, of course, is why countries want to join, reason other Asian countries/regions all over the wirld envy E.U unity model, and they can omly dream of having such a close union.).

It is much easier for people in a market of 400+million to find an alternative supplier than it will be for UK plc to find a new customer for half of our exports. Plus. Many international companies are in UK precisely because it provides access to EU markets: we leave, then those will move. Take For example, Nissan in Sunderland: we leave EU then there is a 10% tariff on importing cars from outside EU which would make tha plant uneconomic. So they close it and move to Ireland, Poland or wherever.
Similarly, if we leave EU then Airbus will move out (tariff on an aeroplane wing would cost a LOT) my brother @MarkusS can confirm this. Apparently 3.5 million jobs directly depend on trade with the EU.

Also, the next focus in EU trade is to liberalise services: areas Britain is good at (banking, insurance, advertising, law, accountancy, which are all areas i work in). We would be better positioned to be supporting that rather than running away from it.

Secondly, Some people say we should leave EU to sell more outside it. But that makes no sense. We absolutely do need to increase exports to other countries and it is true that (from a small base) they are increasing faster than trade to EU.
But that is not an alternative: it is hard to see why losing EU market will help with winning customers in Brazil,India or China.
Indeed, far from leaving, i Mike wil say the EU help us in selling to those countries it would be the reverse. The EU has 46 free-trade deals with other countries (and is in negotiations with and 70). So Leaving the EU would remove us from those: not only hurting trade with the 26 other EU members, it would hurt trade with those countries where we no longer had a trade deal in place.

That means UK exporters would suddenly face new tariffs, new regulatory barriers and new restrictions to services, investment and procurement in 70+ crucial markets - tariffs and restrictions competitors from within the EU would not face. Far from "helping UK sell to non-EU" it would be a major barrier.

How long will it take to negotiate those 46 freetrade deals (ones we have today, would lose if we exit and would need to re-negotiate and restart?) Years during which time our exporters are at a disadvantage.

Thirdly,is that it would not solve the problem people think.

Even if we leave EU we would still need to follow their rules on goods (if we wanted to try to sell to them, or we want to sell to other countries who adopted them anyway).

For example, RoHS describes chemicals used in electronics & bans some. Even American firms and Chinese ones follow this - because they want to sell products in France & Germany.

Sop we leave - but we still follow the same obligations.
It has not solved any problem people imagine that it will solve (curviness of cucumbers for example).
That is aside from comment 2: people think it will solve other problems which are nothing to do with EU anyway.

Switzerland, Norway etc have to follow the EU rules even though not members (indeed, amusingly, Dan Hannon suggests we should be like Switzerland - they follow more rules than UK does eg they are in shenghen).

Fourthly, the corollary to the above is that right now we have a lot of influence in EU. You wouldn't know if from UK press but apparently our diplomats are very persuasive, and a lot of the rules are written in ways that benefit us.
Leave and although we still have to obey the rules we no longer write them: we lose not just veto but voting.

Additionally, i know this is controversial to many of us British, but the free movemement of people is a big aspect of EU. That Britons can freely study in Holland or can buy a home in Spain is a benefit of the EU.
Conversely, the fact that all those Lithuanian/Polish plumbers(and beautiful girs.lol) can work in UK is another facet. I would describe that as a win (better work for lower prices creates more natioanl wealth) but it is controversial and it is less popular with people who dislike the immigration as well(i think it should be controled/selective though).
But if UK were to leave then those current immigrants would have no right to stay in UK; and the British working in other countries (eg Brits retired to Spain like my grand dad) may no longer have the right to stay there.
See If any member state were to leave the EU, would its citizens resident in other EU states also have to leave?

Finally, there is confusion & risk. Businesses hate confusion(if you have worked in one like me you will know that bro.)

If you were Brazilian, Indian, Japanese or Chinese & looking to open a factory in Europe would you want to open it where you knew what the laws were, a guaranteed access to markets with no tariffs or take a punt it might be OK?
If i remember correctly(maybe my country men @Blue Marlin ,@Steve781 can confirm this) a related example was one of the factors that scuppered the BAE merger with EADS: the German government did not want their stake to be risked in what might be a non-EU country back then.
So im sure, just now seems a really bad time to be sending a "we are a bad place for investment" message, to be scaring businesses.

At the emd of the day, our leaders. corporations, businesses and people(those who are informed) all know this, we wont be leaving the E.U , however we will use this threat to get more reforms from the E.U that serves our intetests even more.

Keep dreaming.

To be honest, you should take your own advice.

 

[livingdead]

No it won't. It will galvanise and reach out to the world. The world's leading states are itching to sign agreements with the UK, but put off with the red tape that comes with being in a bloc, where you speak for one, which in itself is illogical, considering the vast differences there are. Those "British" laws gave the Magna Carta, the first real charter of liberties in Europe, ended slavery (way before the Europeans), gave women the vote and so on. I love those laws and hold them dear to my heart.
The free movement of people amongst states is fine, provided it is controlled, and other states are up to par regarding their GDP per capita. The whole chilling in Dublin, holidaying in Spain will go on, as it did when I went, and that was before greater integration.

I dont think UK has competitive advantage in many fields that they can suddenly sell tonnes of goods to India and china. EU does not stop UK from exporting, as far as I know. Import might have barriers, but staying within EU can give better chance of getting a fair deal with china or India. You are overstimating UK, it is an overachiever but lets not get carried away.

As to human right record, magna carta/anti slavery might have been brilliant at that time, but many recent human right laws are from europe. Workers get better protection from corporations due to european laws.
I mean hammurabi gave awsome laws for his time, but does not mean iraqis will be at the forefront of best laws given to mankind forever.
What if we leave europe and then scots leave us. Scots(and probably welsh) are in favour of europe. We will be reduced old england, and English nationalists will run unchecked. Its far easy to be nationalist if the country is made of people of one identity. Current semi-federal structure maintains balance, pulls us away from leaning too much to right.

The fact that we are the only one who are thinking of leaving, points to isolationist mindset(especially among English voter), like we are some special people. We are better together.

EU also partly the reason europeans are not constantly bickering, or willing to kill each other.

 

[bsruzm]

How long it has been that they are thinking to leave it?

 

[mike2000 is back]

I dont think UK has competitive advantage in many fields that they can suddenly sell tonnes of goods to India and china. EU does not stop UK from exporting, as far as I know. Import might have barriers, but staying within EU can give better chance of getting a fair deal with china or India. You are overstimating UK, it is an overachiever but lets not get carried away.

As to human right record, magna carta/anti slavery might have been brilliant at that time, but many recent human right laws are from europe. Workers get better protection from corporations due to european laws.
I mean hammurabi gave awsome laws for his time, but does not mean iraqis will be at the forefront of best laws given to mankind forever.
What if we leave europe and then scots leave us. Scots(and probably welsh) are in favour of europe. We will be reduced old england, and English nationalists will run unchecked. Its far easy to be nationalist if the country is made of people of one identity. Current semi-federal structure maintains balance, pulls us away from leaning too much to right.

The fact that we are the only one who are thinking of leaving, points to isolationist mindset(especially among English voter), like we are some special people. We are better together.

EU also partly the reason europeans are not constantly bickering, or willing to kill each other.

Not just that, he forgets that Europe is also good for us in many aspects.

UK trade surplus in finance to reach record £61bn » TheCityUK

Home

Europe remains the dominant market for UK exports and imports of services - ONS

Rule Britannia: London overtakes New York as the world's best financial centre - Telegraph

london voted world's top tourist destination - Google Search

UK named top European country for FDI stock in World Investment Report - News articles - GOV.UK

theConsultant.eu - UK consulting market ranks top of global "attractiveness" index

The 'Ties That Bind' ? UK Is The Largest Foreign Investor In The U.S. By Far

In 2013 UK received the most foreign direct investment in Europe, and second most in the world after the US| [site:name] | City A.M.

All thanks to our strengths and that of being part of Europe.

 

[Guynextdoor2]

Britain must leave EU IMMEDEATELY. This joke has gone for too long. I support UKIP and Nigel Fararge. Britain must wake up to his leadership!!!!!

 

[mike2000 is back]

How long it has been that they are thinking to leave it?

We will keep 'thinking' untill all reforms that serve our interests even more than they are already are passed.