we live in hope. can always try
Afghanistan has been ruled better under a monarchy with a sword. keeping uzbeks, tajiks, Punjsehris, Pashtons at swords length and generously taking the heads off the shoulders when compliance (reconciliation) was an issue.
the idea is, you beat your opponent so bad that he has no choice but to reconcile. Afghanistan is unfortunately a place of too many chiefs or a pack of Arctic wolves sleeping with one eye open and devouring each other when they can
this has been the case for centuries before ISI and before Modi G... I understand what you are saying but a good chance was lost after invasion when Pasthons were dismissed due to the pressure from racist Northern Alliance warlords who ruled the south like a conquered land, it just gave Taliban the space back which they had lost due to their oppressive rule. over the years what people have suffered at the hands of Northern alliance has just given Taliban the space they needed to reignite their fight and now they matter once again.
I dnt have any opinion about failure or success maybe they will change but maybe not
but chances of failure increase if the peace brokers and 3rd parties are unfair in their reconciliation drive and make same mistakes
in order to come out of the hole, the first thing you need to do is stop digging.