Blow to India as Nepal strengthens ties with China

[RisingShiningSuperpower]

http://www.deccanherald.com/content/545483/blow-india-nepal-strengthens-ties.html

Blow to India as Nepal strengthens ties with China
New Delhi, May 10, 2016, DHNS:
The latest round of anti-India propaganda in Nepal came with Prime Minister K P Oli’s government allowing China to expand its strategic footprints in the country.

Even as Kathmandu dismissed speculation over a proposal to declare India’s ambassador to Nepal Ranjit Rae as “persona-non-grata” and expel him, New Delhi is closely monitoring moves by the Oli government and political developments in the neighbouring country.

Nepalese Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Kamal Thapa, described as “baseless” the media-reports on move to declare India’s envoy to Nepal “persona non-grata” and force New Delhi to withdraw him from Kathmandu.

Kathmandu had not only called off Nepalese President Vidya Devi Bhandari’s proposed visit to India, but also recalled its envoy to New Delhi, Deep Kumar Upadhyay, accusing him of working against the interests of Nepal.

The twin moves by Kathmandu came shortly after Oli’s government appeared to be threatened by a crack in the ruling coalition. Though Oli survived the crisis for now, a section of political establishments in Kathmandu once again started blaming New Delhi for triggering instability in the neighbourhood. Upadhyay was also accused to be working with New Delhi for destabilising the Oli government.

Officials in New Delhi took note of the fact that the latest round of anti-India propaganda in Nepal started just a few weeks after Oli visited Beijing and struck a landmark transit treaty with China, along with 9 other agreements.

The China-Nepal transit treaty is being billed as a move to end the landlocked country’s dependence on India for supply of food, fuel, medicines and essentials as well as to expand Chinese footprints in the northern neighbourhood of India. Beijing also agreed to extend the strategic Tibet rail link to Nepal to boost connectivity.

Oli, who visited New Delhi in February, apparently clinched the transit deal with Beijing, in view of the disruption of supplies of essentials from India to Nepal during Madhesi agitation against its new Constitution. Kathmandu then blamed New Delhi for launching an “economic blockade” against it.

Officials in New Delhi however pointed out that no other country could replicate the “special and privileged” relationship between Nepal and India.

 

[That Guy]

Instead of growing India's influence in the region, all Modi and his clearly incompetent advisers, have done is shrink India's footprint.

[edit]: not that I'm complaining, it's just an observation.

 

[Nilgiri]

Instead of growing India's influence in the region, all Modi and his clearly incompetent advisers, have done is shrink India's footprint.

[edit]: not that I'm complaining, it's just an observation.

62% of Nepals exports go to India, 61% of Nepals imports come from India.

The remaining quantities from/to other countries all pass through India as well.

Nepalese rupee is pegged to Indian rupee. Indian rupee is legal tender in Nepal.

Nepal and India maintain a system where citizens may cross freely into each others countries and set up residence.

No other country hosts as many Nepalis as India does, that too welcoming them with open arms and no restrictions.

Govt - govt friction on account of Nepal's current leftist govt and its attempt to redraw its internal boundaries to split up certain communities....do not diminish the impact of Indian economy, culture and people-people contact on Nepal.

It only grows as India grows. Whenever India's economy performs higher than average, Nepal benefits greatly from the increased remittance that keeps their country fiscally solvent.

There is no "shrinking" of India's footprint. We will simply wait out the natural course of things till Nepalese people realise their current govt is an obstacle to faster growth and continued integration with and injection from Indian economy. A govt is a tiny portion of what India - Nepal relations are and will be.

 

[That Guy]

62% of Nepals exports go to India, 61% of Nepals imports come from India.

The remaining quantities from/to other countries all pass through India as well.

Nepalese rupee is pegged to Indian rupee. Indian rupee is legal tender in Nepal.

Nepal and India maintain a system where citizens may cross freely into each others countries and set up residence.

No other country hosts as many Nepalis as India does, that too welcoming them with open arms and no restrictions.

Govt - govt friction on account of Nepal's current leftist govt and its attempt to redraw its internal boundaries to split up certain communities....do not diminish the impact of Indian economy, culture and people-people contact on Nepal.

It only grows as India grows. Whenever India's economy performs higher than average, Nepal benefits greatly from the increased remittance that keeps their country fiscally solvent.

There is no "shrinking" of India's footprint. We will simply wait out the natural course of things till Nepalese people realise their current govt is an obstacle to faster growth and continued integration with and injection from Indian economy. A govt is a tiny portion of what India - Nepal relations are and will be.

You aren't dealing with Pakistan, you're dealing with China. Not only is China also right next to Nepal, but it has the money to wrest it away from India.

Your argument only works against nations that are economically weaker than India, which China is not.

With a pro-Chinese and anti-Indian government in Nepal signing various economic and trade deals with China, and India shooting itself in the foot by ruining decades of hard earned good will in Nepal, your argument flies right out the window.

 

[nair]

62% of Nepals exports go to India, 61% of Nepals imports come from India.

The remaining quantities from/to other countries all pass through India as well.

Nepalese rupee is pegged to Indian rupee. Indian rupee is legal tender in Nepal.

Nepal and India maintain a system where citizens may cross freely into each others countries and set up residence.

No other country hosts as many Nepalis as India does, that too welcoming them with open arms and no restrictions.

Govt - govt friction on account of Nepal's current leftist govt and its attempt to redraw its internal boundaries to split up certain communities....do not diminish the impact of Indian economy, culture and people-people contact on Nepal.

It only grows as India grows. Whenever India's economy performs higher than average, Nepal benefits greatly from the increased remittance that keeps their country fiscally solvent.

There is no "shrinking" of India's footprint. We will simply wait out the natural course of things till Nepalese people realise their current govt is an obstacle to faster growth and continued integration with and injection from Indian economy. A govt is a tiny portion of what India - Nepal relations are and will be.

What ever said and done, the recent events are not exiting, and signals are not encouraging.....

 

[Nilgiri]

You aren't dealing with Pakistan, you're dealing with China. Not only is China also right next to Nepal, but it has the money to wrest it away from India.

Your argument only works against nations that are economically weaker than India, which China is not.

With a pro-Chinese and anti-Indian government in Nepal signing various economic and trade deals with China, and India shooting itself in the foot by ruining decades of hard earned good will in Nepal, your argument flies right out the window.

Tell me when China hosts a tiny fraction of the number of Nepalis that work freely in India.

Tell me when China creates an open border policy with Nepal like India has.

Tell me when Nepal floats its currency or pegs it to the Yuan.

Tell me when the Yuan becomes legal tender in Nepal.

Nepal is welcome to explore trade and other such deals with China.....but its pretty obvious to anyone that their trade will continue to be dominated by India in both directions given the proximity of the factors of production between India and Nepal. I mean looking at what was signed between China and Nepal, there isn't even a fixed dollar amount anywhere....its just a few trinkets here and there and some pie in the sky attempt at trade logistics:

https://thehimalayantimes.com/business/nepal-china-pen-transit-trade-treaty-nine-pacts/

The Chinese aren't that dumb financially to commit any large scale capacity building to a market the size of Nepal. They are pretty reluctant as it is with the CPEC project and that actually has some theoretical viability behind it. Nepal has to fundamentally grow several times to attract anything serious and concrete from China....and this current govt will long be gone by then. I mean not even one factor of production commited in the deal....whereas India has an existing and concrete economic footprint in Nepal for decades.

You really think one narrow rail line (which is yet to be extended to Nepal if it ever happens since its just an MOU and feasibility studies and financing have to be put into place) through the himalayas and Tibet is going to compete with the whole low land border that Nepal has with India and consumer and supplier bases right at their doorstep in say Uttar Pradesh? At most it will a useful hedge if there are border problems again (which there wont be since Nepal govt blinked and relented in allowing the traditional internal districts to remain as they were). I mean the very expense of lugging that cargo on such a rail project make it quite unviable financially. Just pick up a map. At best (and its a stretch), a fraction of existing imports will be switched from India to China...which doesnt even matter in the long run since India - Nepali trade will grow to include many more new goods and services given the sheer presence of Nepalis working in India.

You think Nepalis will suddenly stop learning and understanding Hindi (50% already have a version of it as their mother tongue, most of the rest understand it well) and supplant that with Chinese? Supplant Hindu culture with Chinese one? Do you know how many pilgrimage routes are stretched between India and Nepal? How much hydropower India buys from Nepal? These are all immovable ground realities that bind India and Nepal past their political systems into a broader nation of people.

Do you know just how unpopular the current leftist govt is in Nepal? They have polarised the country deeply, it would be interesting to see what the approval rating for this administration is now....with 50% of the population antagonised by default....it will just add from there.

So yeah it may be a feeble attempt at a blow to the Indian govt, but the very reason they (govt) do not pay it much attention is they know the temporary nature of this current administration in Nepal and they also know just how entrenched and reliant Nepal is on the Indian economy and the prevailing depth of people-people contact.

What ever said and done, the recent events are not exiting, and signals are not encouraging.....

Don't let the political squabbling act as some opaque veil. Their ruling political elite are a bunch of JNU educated snobs that like to indulge in some showmanship....but they know their limits very well....and they wont be in power in the long term anyway. I mean many non-BJP ruled states with same JNU leftist twits would do the same if they could. Politics is a passing thing compared to the permanent irreversible destiny that binds Nepal to India. @Samudra Manthan

Just read the actual contents of what they signed with China....and ask yourself is it going to viably supplant their reliance on India when you take into consideration the geographic location of consumers, providers, economic links, their own huge diaspora in India and cultural integration?

Example: http://nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19064#.VzGGgIQrKUk

Its the typical MOU strategy again for mostly showmanship. Just sit back and watch what actually materialises on the ground.

 

[SrNair]

You aren't dealing with Pakistan, you're dealing with China. Not only is China also right next to Nepal, but it has the money to wrest it away from India.

Your argument only works against nations that are economically weaker than India, which China is not.

With a pro-Chinese and anti-Indian government in Nepal signing various economic and trade deals with China, and India shooting itself in the foot by ruining decades of hard earned good will in Nepal, your argument flies right out the window.

India - Nepal relations is too complex .Chinese have money .But can they replace India ?
I dont think so .Now Nepalese hates their govt .Do you know why ?Billions of Rupees come to Nepal as aid after earthquake.But Common Nepalese situations is still remain same .They are sending their girls to India or GCC for living and remittance .
Some of them ended up in situations like that one faced in Saudi diplomat house .Then the supports and diplomacy has to come from Indian themselves .
Lets take about their ruiling elites .Most of them have a lot of assets and relations in India .
We will wait and watch that how long they can go .
Chinese are businessmen if they invest for something they will surely expects double profits.
And finally Nepal food security is totally depends on Terai region which is totally under the control of Madeshis .

 

[WhyCry]

Instead of growing India's influence in the region, all Modi and his clearly incompetent advisers, have done is shrink India's footprint.

[edit]: not that I'm complaining, it's just an observation.

Can you please provide the full context including nepal country wise and region wise?

 

[cloud4000]

Nepal would be a fool not to play China and India off each other and gain maximum benefits from both countries. China has sweeten the pot, now it's India's turn.

 

[That Guy]

Tell me when China hosts a tiny fraction of the number of Nepalis that work freely in India.

Tell me when China creates an open border policy with Nepal like India has.

Tell me when Nepal floats its currency or pegs it to the Yuan.

Tell me when the Yuan becomes legal tender in Nepal.

Nepal is welcome to explore trade and other such deals with China.....but its pretty obvious to anyone that their trade will continue to be dominated by India in both directions given the proximity of the factors of production between India and Nepal. I mean looking at what was signed between China and Nepal, there isn't even a fixed dollar amount anywhere....its just a few trinkets here and there and some pie in the sky attempt at trade logistics:

https://thehimalayantimes.com/business/nepal-china-pen-transit-trade-treaty-nine-pacts/

The Chinese aren't that dumb financially to commit any large scale capacity building to a market the size of Nepal. They are pretty reluctant as it is with the CPEC project and that actually has some theoretical viability behind it. Nepal has to fundamentally grow several times to attract anything serious and concrete from China....and this current govt will long be gone by then. I mean not even one factor of production commited in the deal....whereas India has an existing and concrete economic footprint in Nepal for decades.

You really think one narrow rail line (which is yet to be extended to Nepal if it ever happens since its just an MOU and feasibility studies and financing have to be put into place) through the himalayas and Tibet is going to compete with the whole low land border that Nepal has with India and consumer and supplier bases right at their doorstep in say Uttar Pradesh? At most it will a useful hedge if there are border problems again (which there wont be since Nepal govt blinked and relented in allowing the traditional internal districts to remain as they were). I mean the very expense of lugging that cargo on such a rail project make it quite unviable financially. Just pick up a map. At best (and its a stretch), a fraction of existing imports will be switched from India to China...which doesnt even matter in the long run since India - Nepali trade will grow to include many more new goods and services given the sheer presence of Nepalis working in India.

You think Nepalis will suddenly stop learning and understanding Hindi (50% already have a version of it as their mother tongue, most of the rest understand it well) and supplant that with Chinese? Supplant Hindu culture with Chinese one? Do you know how many pilgrimage routes are stretched between India and Nepal? How much hydropower India buys from Nepal? These are all immovable ground realities that bind India and Nepal past their political systems into a broader nation of people.

Do you know just how unpopular the current leftist govt is in Nepal? They have polarised the country deeply, it would be interesting to see what the approval rating for this administration is now....with 50% of the population antagonised by default....it will just add from there.

So yeah it may be a feeble attempt at a blow to the Indian govt, but the very reason they (govt) do not pay it much attention is they know the temporary nature of this current administration in Nepal and they also know just how entrenched and reliant Nepal is on the Indian economy and the prevailing depth of people-people contact.



Don't let the political squabbling act as some opaque veil. Their ruling political elite are a bunch of JNU educated snobs that like to indulge in some showmanship....but they know their limits very well....and they wont be in power in the long term anyway. I mean many non-BJP ruled states with same JNU leftist twits would do the same if they could. Politics is a passing thing compared to the permanent irreversible destiny that binds Nepal to India. @Samudra Manthan

Just read the actual contents of what they signed with China....and ask yourself is it going to viably supplant their reliance on India when you take into consideration the geographic location of consumers, providers, economic links, their own huge diaspora in India and cultural integration?

Example: http://nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19064#.VzGGgIQrKUk

Its the typical MOU strategy again for mostly showmanship. Just sit back and watch what actually materialises on the ground.

All you're doing is repeating yourself. Your biggest failure is to realize that this won;t happen over night. You don't write a novel in an hour, and expect it to be good, it takes time.

Really, all you've done is repeat your old arguments which I've already addressed.

 

[Nilgiri]

All you're doing is repeating yourself. Your biggest failure is to realize that this won;t happen over night. You don't write a novel in an hour, and expect it to be good, it takes time.

Really, all you've done is repeat your old arguments which I've already addressed.

Of course nothing happens overnight. That just favours India even more in the overall analysis given the points I raised about the local unpopularity of the current Nepalese govt.

Its also why China has so far made pretty much token moves (looking at actual money and hardware committed), they have much bigger and more important markets to focus and consolidate on.

 

[Samudra Manthan]

Tell me when China hosts a tiny fraction of the number of Nepalis that work freely in India.

Tell me when China creates an open border policy with Nepal like India has.

Tell me when Nepal floats its currency or pegs it to the Yuan.

Tell me when the Yuan becomes legal tender in Nepal.

Nepal is welcome to explore trade and other such deals with China.....but its pretty obvious to anyone that their trade will continue to be dominated by India in both directions given the proximity of the factors of production between India and Nepal. I mean looking at what was signed between China and Nepal, there isn't even a fixed dollar amount anywhere....its just a few trinkets here and there and some pie in the sky attempt at trade logistics:

https://thehimalayantimes.com/business/nepal-china-pen-transit-trade-treaty-nine-pacts/

The Chinese aren't that dumb financially to commit any large scale capacity building to a market the size of Nepal. They are pretty reluctant as it is with the CPEC project and that actually has some theoretical viability behind it. Nepal has to fundamentally grow several times to attract anything serious and concrete from China....and this current govt will long be gone by then. I mean not even one factor of production commited in the deal....whereas India has an existing and concrete economic footprint in Nepal for decades.

You really think one narrow rail line (which is yet to be extended to Nepal if it ever happens since its just an MOU and feasibility studies and financing have to be put into place) through the himalayas and Tibet is going to compete with the whole low land border that Nepal has with India and consumer and supplier bases right at their doorstep in say Uttar Pradesh? At most it will a useful hedge if there are border problems again (which there wont be since Nepal govt blinked and relented in allowing the traditional internal districts to remain as they were). I mean the very expense of lugging that cargo on such a rail project make it quite unviable financially. Just pick up a map. At best (and its a stretch), a fraction of existing imports will be switched from India to China...which doesnt even matter in the long run since India - Nepali trade will grow to include many more new goods and services given the sheer presence of Nepalis working in India.

You think Nepalis will suddenly stop learning and understanding Hindi (50% already have a version of it as their mother tongue, most of the rest understand it well) and supplant that with Chinese? Supplant Hindu culture with Chinese one? Do you know how many pilgrimage routes are stretched between India and Nepal? How much hydropower India buys from Nepal? These are all immovable ground realities that bind India and Nepal past their political systems into a broader nation of people.

Do you know just how unpopular the current leftist govt is in Nepal? They have polarised the country deeply, it would be interesting to see what the approval rating for this administration is now....with 50% of the population antagonised by default....it will just add from there.

So yeah it may be a feeble attempt at a blow to the Indian govt, but the very reason they (govt) do not pay it much attention is they know the temporary nature of this current administration in Nepal and they also know just how entrenched and reliant Nepal is on the Indian economy and the prevailing depth of people-people contact.



Don't let the political squabbling act as some opaque veil. Their ruling political elite are a bunch of JNU educated snobs that like to indulge in some showmanship....but they know their limits very well....and they wont be in power in the long term anyway. I mean many non-BJP ruled states with same JNU leftist twits would do the same if they could. Politics is a passing thing compared to the permanent irreversible destiny that binds Nepal to India. @Samudra Manthan

Just read the actual contents of what they signed with China....and ask yourself is it going to viably supplant their reliance on India when you take into consideration the geographic location of consumers, providers, economic links, their own huge diaspora in India and cultural integration?

Example: http://nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19064#.VzGGgIQrKUk

Its the typical MOU strategy again for mostly showmanship. Just sit back and watch what actually materialises on the ground.

I won't be too sure of cultural continuity in a couple of decades from now. The missionaries are hard at work converting Hindus there and the younger generation there does not seem to care too much about Hinduism or Indian cultural links.

 

[That Guy]

Of course nothing happens overnight. That just favours India even more in the overall analysis given the points I raised about the local unpopularity of the current Nepalese govt.

Its also why China has so far made pretty much token moves (looking at actual money and hardware committed), they have much bigger and more important markets to focus and consolidate on.

Unpopular according to you. In the long run, China has the upper hand, simply because Nepal has realized that relying heavily on one single nation is bad for business. China is the only real alternative for Nepal, and one that the Nepali government (no matter who's in power) will definitely look towards, in order to break India's monopoly.

 

[Nilgiri]

Unpopular according to you. In the long run, China has the upper hand, simply because Nepal has realized that relying heavily on one single nation is bad for business. China is the only real alternative for Nepal, and one that the Nepali government (no matter who's in power) will definitely look towards, in order to break India's monopoly.

Sure India's monopoly is not going to remain absolute forever on Nepal. In fact Nepal must seek more balance economically since India can only provide so much. China is an obvious initial hedge, they cannot be ignored even by the most pro-India regime that may find itself in power in Nepal.

But my contention is that the use of gimmick words like "blow" and "shrinking footprint" have to be first mitigated by certain realities outside the political sphere.

The current govt is definitely unpopular if you look at the demographic % of the people they antagonised severely + their percieved incompetence in dealing with the aftermath of the earthquake.

Unfortunately there is no opinion or survey poll conducted to gauge the overall sentiment in Nepal maybe because the govt would not prefer such information to leak in this vulnerable time for their existence.

Some time before we could already see a build up of Nepali frustration with their politicians and system:

http://www.spotlightnepal.com/News/Article/OPINION-POLL-Against-Agenda

http://www.idea.int/asia_pacific/ne...itical-parties-and-political-developments.cfm

 

[Tripoli]

Interesting times........