Better Get Used to it, China: Taiwan and Japan Will Get Closer

[Spectre]

I think China had the potential to accomplish this with Hu Jintao's "peaceful rise" rhetoric, but Xi has turned out to be not so clever, and destroyed all of the good will that was built up. The Shanghai faction appears to more clever vis-a-vis international opinion, but they appear to be out of favor at the moment. Xi's "Chinese Dream" is essentially the polar opposite, promising greater glory to China at the expense of China's neighbors.



Agreed, the failure on the reform front is quite disappointing. Let's look at it from a different angle. The only major reform that Xi carried out, the anti-corruption drive, just so happens to have simultaneously served the purpose of purging his political rivals. Imagine that. Meanwhile, the real reforms that are needed to ensure China's prosperity (transparency, corporate governance reform, financial liberalization, etc.) are delayed or reversed. What is left is China's debt-fueled growth model, which is neither original nor sustainable enough to cultivate admiration by others.

What China needs is a vision and a model that inspire other countries to be like China. China's rapid economic growth formed a solid foundation for that, but there are not many in the global demos who say to themselves, "I would love to live in a middle-income society that prohibits free speech, jails dissidents, is rife with corruption, and constantly threatens its neighbors." Not to mention the thinly-veiled racial supremacist tones behind Xi's nationalist appeal. Xi will be in power for several more years, so it looks like soft-power will not be a tool available to China.

Sir, you paint a grim picture.

Do opponents to Xi have any influence inside CCP or have all been purged or tamed? Any chance for a coup by concerns affected by Xi's heavy handedness?

I guess the military leadership of PLA would also have a significant voice in decision making but expect them to further endorse Xi's policy.

It would be nice to have some information about dynamics in politburo but as things stands the next few years would lead to erosion of goodwill and increased suspicion of China in Global community.

 

[LeveragedBuyout]

Sir, you paint a grim picture.

Do opponents to Xi have any influence inside CCP or have all been purged or tamed? Any chance for a coup by concerns affected by heavy handedness by Xi?

I guess the military leadership of PLA would also have a significant voice in decision making but expect them to further endorse Xi's policy.

I would be nice to have some information about dynamics in politburo

As I understand it, the Standing Committee is dominated by Xi, with 6 of the 7 Committee members in Xi's faction (and the 7th is Li Keqiang)--so no, it appears that no opponent of Xi has any influence in the CCP at this stage. And since Xi commands the armed forces as well, it's unlikely that they will rise up against him (we can see that he's busy purging any potential threats).

Our friend @cnleio seems to have a keen insight into the inner workings of the CCP and the various factions, so I would defer to him to provide a definitive answer, however.

 

[Spectre]

As I understand it, the Standing Committee is dominated by Xi, with 6 of the 7 Committee members in Xi's faction (and the 7th is Li Keqiang)--so no, it appears that no opponent of Xi has any influence in the CCP at this stage. And since Xi commands the armed forces as well, it's unlikely that they will rise up against him (we can see that he's busy purging any potential threats).

Our friend @cnleio seems to have a keen insight into the inner workings of the CCP and the various factions, so I would defer to him to provide a definitive answer, however.

It would be interesting if we can contrast the leadership of Putin with Xi, Xi on surface appears to be a more circumspect Putin. Both presumably enjoy public support and follow similar expansionist policies only Xi seemingly avoids the consequences.

As long as Xi keeps the perception of rising China intact, I see him having a free reign domestically and his relatively softer approach goes a long way towards masking the threat perception of China in eyes of most global leaders. This way Xi ensures that all guns are trained on Russia and China is allowed to get away with modest reprimands.

 

[Zsari]

Is there any movement towards change in status-quo like Taiwan declaring independence?

It would be interesting to get some views from aged people here on PDF who observed the dynamics of China-Taiwan relations over the course of 20 - 25 years and hence could comment if the geo-political changes like closer Taiwan - Japan ties we are observing are routine and happen as a matter of course whenever China shows assertiveness or is it something unique and unprecedented.

US knows very well that it has a lot more to lose than to gain if the cross strait tension was to flare up, which is why it has been trying very hard to maintain the status quo. Remember it is the US that pressured Chen, the previous DPP administration into declaring the so call "four no and one not have" that pretty much prevented any movement towards independence, and it is the US Taiwan relation office that played active role in taking Chen down when he got out of line. Tsai just this June was in the US trying to peddle her "new policy" on cross strait relation, but in the end was rebuffed and had to went back to the promise of sticking to the status quo. So if you are hoping for something to happen with the possibility of DPP winning the election in Taiwan, you are bond to be disappointed. As far as Japan is concerned, it will simply toe the US line.

 

[IR-TR]

I love it. It's destiny, it's fate. No matter how hard 'outside' nations, and fangirls like mike2000 will pray and hope it doesn't happen, it will. Regions will integrate. Some regions just have 1.7 billion hard working people in it. Can you even imagine joint China-Japan-Korea expeditions to fetch minerals and resources in the middle east or africa? West what? What West?

 

[TheTruth]

The status quo will change (is changing now?) when Dr. Tsai Ing Wen wins in 2016. Don't you know that the 'Thinking Taiwan Foundation' is also a credible NGO operating in Japan? lol.

One of the leaders of Ilha Formosa (i think you know this foundation, well, i hope so since you're a Taiwanese), is also in close coordination with the Thinking Taiwan Foundation in Japan.

An indirect relationship, yes, but a relationship and correlational nonetheless.

Tsai will not declare independence, and any idiot who wants to name the island after Portuguese vermin needs to get his head checked.

 

[Aepsilons]

Tsai will not declare independence, and any idiot who wants to name the island after Portuguese vermin needs to get his head checked.

Its not a falsity or a fabrication, but historical fact, tho, my esteemed Taiwanese friend. I mean, afterall, it was the DPP that declared it in 2007.

 

[TheTruth]

Its not a falsity or a fabrication, but historical fact, tho, my esteemed Taiwanese friend. I mean, afterall, it was the DPP that declared it in 2007.

Yu's proposal, endorsed by 37 congress representatives, only won 43 affirmative votes out of 328 representatives present at the congress.

 

[Aepsilons]

Yu's proposal, endorsed by 37 congress representatives, only won 43 affirmative votes out of 328 representatives present at the congress.

Later on, the "consensus" version, which reaffirms the party's

commitment to "push for Taiwan's name rectification and write a new

constitution, " was approved, with an overwhelming majority of

congress delegates applauding to show their endorsement.



The formally adopted "normal country resolution" will serve as

road map for the DPP administration in its efforts to fortify

Taiwan-centric consciousness and create a Taiwan identity, party

officials said.


DPP congress ends with vow to build normal country, happy Taiwan - Press Releases - Taipei Representative Office in the EU and Belgium 駐歐盟兼駐比利時代表處