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Belt & Road not a debt trap, CPEC has greatly boosted economic activity in Pakistan

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BRI not a debt trap, CPEC has greatly boosted economic activity in Pakistan

BRI not a debt trap, CPEC has greatly boosted economic activity in Pakistan
Category : Latest News Source : China Daily Date : 13-06-2019

Addressing various concerns on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), various analysts have said that the BRI and CPEC are projects that would boost economic activity by the building of elaborate infrastructure. According to the Secretary of the Economic Affairs Division of Pakistan, out of Pakistan’s total foreign debt, only 10% is comprised of Chinese loans. He also said that the entire portfolio of CPEC does not comprise of loans, but investments and grants.



BRI not a debt trap, CPEC has greatly boosted economic activity in Pakistan


Accusations of China's infrastructure financing 'absolutely wrong', analysts say

Accusations that China's infrastructure financing under the Belt and Road Initiative, or BRI, are causing huge debts to countries involved and pushing them into a "debt trap" are absolutely wrong, reports and analysts have pointed out.

Since last year, some senior officials from the West, including US Vice-President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, have made such allegations without offering any evidence. These false allegations have been refuted by a number of global studies and analysts recently.

The Express Tribune, a major daily English-language newspaper based in Pakistan, published an article on May 27, saying the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a project under the BRI, is not a "debt trap" but a boon for Pakistan.

It said China is investing $62 billion in Pakistan through the CPEC, which has enabled the country to avert its energy crisis and has helped build an elaborate network of infrastructure in various parts of the country for the past five years. The CPEC has greatly boosted the economic activity and improved people's life, it said.

Despite several hostile voices saying that the project is a "debt trap" for Pakistan and will hurt the country's economy, Noor Ahmed, secretary of the Economic Affairs Division of Pakistan, said that the country's total foreign debt is about $106 billion. Of which Chinese loans account for only 10 to 11 percent, while the remaining are from the International Monetary Fund, Paris Club, and other Western organizations, according to the Express Tribune.

Ahmed said that China has greatly supported Pakistan and always help the country during tough economic crises. Through the CPEC, China is building infrastructure in Pakistan to save its economy, and some of its money coming into Pakistan are purely an investment, some are interest-free loans, and other loans are on very easy and simple terms.

"If China lends money to Pakistan at one of the lowest interest rates in the world, how can it be a debt trap?" Ahmed said.

The Chinese-built Hambantota International Port project in Sri Lanka is another example that is always cited by critics while accusing China of making a "debt trap".

Barry Sautman, a professor in the Division of Social Science at Hong Kong University of Science & Technology, said that alleged story that Sri Lanka's government was forced to sign the port away on a 99-year lease after failing to repay Chinese loans that were racking up 6.3 percent interest "are erroneous".

In a recent article published on The South China Morning Post, he said that China holds an estimated 9 to 15 percent of Sri Lanka's external debt, based on his team's field research in Sri Lanka.

Some of the rest are high-interest loans from commercial banks, which are mainly Western. International sovereign bonds holds about half of its external debt, with "Americans holding two-thirds of their value and Asians only about 8 percent", he said.

Sri Lanka must pay interest averaging 6.3 percent on international sovereign bonds and the principal must be fully repaid, on average, within seven years. In contrast, more than two-thirds of the value of Chinese financing to Sri Lanka from 2001 to 2017, including two-thirds to Hambantota Port, carry only 2 percent interest, and mostly repayable more than 20 years, he said.

"Ironically then, if Sri Lanka is debt distressed, it owes more to American and other Western entities than to Chinese," he said.

He added that in fact, Chinese infrastructure loans have not led to the forfeiture of a single valuable asset abroad and have not impinged on the sovereignty of any country. There is no Chinese plot to take over the world.

A report on a study by New Yorkbased independent research provider Rhodium Group, also dismissed the "debt trap" accusations against China recently. Based on 40 cases of external debt renegotiation between 2007 and this year in 24 countries, the report said asset seizure was a rare occurrence. More often, China was inclined to renegotiate the debts or write them off, it said.

Hisham AbuBakr Metwally, an economics researcher with the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Trade and Industry, said that critics always mention "debt trap" in African countries, including Kenya and Ethiopia. The fact is that these countries was in keen need of developing infrastructure, such as railways and bridges, which could greatly boost their economic development.

"BRI is really a new hope for the world to overcome the barrier and achieve development for all," he said. "For example, with the development of infrastructure, we can see now Ethiopia grows the fastest in Africa, at about 7 percent annual growth of GDP."

A recent report from global trade credit insurance company Euler Hermes said that merchandise trade between China and countries involved in the BRI will add $117 billion to global trade and boost its growth by 0.3 percent this year. It would also add 0.1 percent to global GDP in 2019.

Abdallah Abdillahi Miguil, Djibouti's ambassador to China, said that unlike the Western investment with strings attached to it, Chinese investment is welcomed by the country in the Horn of Africa.

"The people and the government of Djibouti are aware of the fact that Chinese investment came at a time where it was mostly needed," he said. "In this connection, we do care less what those who envy the growing cooperation between Djibouti and China say."

Xu Haoliang, assistant secretary-general of the United Nations, said the BRI is a global initiative that has the potential to facilitate the achievement of the sustainable development goals. Importantly, it can also fill in the financing gaps and development needs in underinvested countries with loans and investment from China and other countries.

He said that although some countries have expressed concerns on the issues of standards and regulations pertaining to transparency, debt sustainability, the environment and society, these issues are complex and go beyond the BRI.

"They represent systemic issues in some developing countries related to investments and economic management, are not necessarily or only as a result of the BRI," he said. "Careful study is needed to understand the situation in every instance."

 
Surely you know that terrorists don't target specific CPEC projects. Their goal is to destabilize the region where CPEC vital points are, it's also where your buddy Kulbhushan was caught.

CPEC projects are opaque. A lot of them do not make economic sense - there is no ROI to justify them. A lot of them are too expensive.

the only "winners" in all Chinese infrastructure projects is China
I wish you all the best
 
If CPEC has boosted economic activity why is Pakistan struggling economically ?
Hey, has tRump made America great again yet? Rome was not built in a day. There is no magic pill to boost economy. If there is, we will take it already.
 
CPEC projects are opaque. A lot of them do not make economic sense - there is no ROI to justify them. A lot of them are too expensive.
There are three issues to note -

  • 1. Pakistan is a elongated country with most of the population clustered along the Indus River. The only port acting as entrepot for the vast population of Pakistan is Karachi on the Arabian Sea. However all the major population nodes are in the north or centre far away from the port. As the Karachi port is only link with the world economy this means most of Pakistan is disconnected from global trade. Besides the terrible roads that connect the country to Karachi there is the additional problem that the only port has become contentious battleground between various mafia groups that effectively run rackets or bhatta khors [extortion] which effectively slows trade and adds costs. In conjunction with geographic distance, terrible road infra, the costs involved make life for businesses upcountry difficult.

FzQIkT0.png


  • CPEC addresses this by the soon to be completed north south Peshawar to Karachi motorway [which rolling from Afghan border, to Islamabad, to Lahore, to Faisalabad, to Multan, to Hydrabad, to Karachi on the Arabian Sea] will offer a modern access limited, six lane expressway. This will bring every major population cluster within the ports hinterland in a 10 hour window. If the rackets in Karachi can be eleminated [with the demise of Altaf bhai that looks possible] we could not see a very efficient supply chain evolve over the next few years. This is thanks to CPEC. Obvioulsy how this network is leveraged depends on our trading class. But expect industries to set up on newly planned industrial estates along this network.

  • 2. This network will be connected north with China. The ongoing work on Hazara motorway and upgradation of KKH will link China to this system and allow Chinese ideas, investors, economic networks to slowly drip south into Pakistan and bringing with it much needed fresh ideas. There is howver the billion dollar question as to how our people who tend to be religious, conservative interact with a money driven athiest culture. Will problems stymie any progess as the inevitable culture crash begins to takes it's toll on the mountain high love. The recent examples of women trafficking and prostitution are not good omens. There is the potentially even bigger problem that as more interaction takes place along the CPEC could the Uighur issue explode inside Pakistan as our mullahs and Islamists decide to go the way of a jihad to help their Muslim brothers. This would cause a sharp, crushing reaction from China as they don't take to Islamists and their internal matters well.

  • 3. There was extreme issues relating to power generation, load shedding and distribution. I think that has been largely resolved thanks to CPEC although work continues on improving the distribution network. All this is of direct effect on industry.

Given the points I raised there is much hope but equally much to worry about. If all the stars line up we could see huge economic benefits from CPEC in coming years as the process begins to mature and show fruition. However if it does not and I touched on some of the reasons then in few years Pakistan could be much to the "see we said so" pleasure in debt trap as it struggles to pay off the CPEC loans. We will know by end of this government tenure by about 2023.

@Feng Leng @beijingwalker @Mangus Ortus Novem @Nilgiri
 
Hey, has tRump made America great again yet? Rome was not built in a day. There is no magic pill to boost economy. If there is, we will take it already.

for all his faults Trump is addressing certain white elephants in the room other politicians won't touch
if American voters do not like trump they can throw him out in 2020

Does pakistan have a way of unwinding CPEC projects if it is not profitable. Or is China going to insist on the garbage of contractual obligations ?

There are three issues to note -

  • 1. Pakistan is a elongated country with most of the population clustered along the Indus River. The only port acting as entrepot for the vast population of Pakistan is Karachi on the Arabian Sea. However all the major population nodes are in the north or centre far away from the port. As the Karachi port is only link with the world economy this means most of Pakistan is disconnected from global trade. Besides the terrible roads that connect the country to Karachi there is the additional problem that the only port has become contentious battleground between various mafia groups that effectively run rackets or bhatta khors [extortion] which effectively slows trade and adds costs. In conjunction with geographic distance, terrible road infra, the costs involved make life for businesses upcountry difficult.

FzQIkT0.png


  • CPEC addresses this by the soon to be completed north south Peshawar to Karachi motorway [which rolling from Afghan border, to Islamabad, to Lahore, to Faisalabad, to Multan, to Hydrabad, to Karachi on the Arabian Sea] will offer a modern access limited, six lane expressway. This will bring every major population cluster within the ports hinterland in a 10 hour window. If the rackets in Karachi can be eleminated [with the demise of Altaf bhai that looks possible] we could not see a very efficient supply chain evolve over the next few years. This is thanks to CPEC. Obvioulsy how this network is leveraged depends on our trading class. But expect industries to set up on newly planned industrial estates along this network.

  • 2. This network will be connected north with China. The ongoing work on Hazara motorway and upgradation of KKH will link China to this system and allow Chinese ideas, investors, economic networks to slowly drip south into Pakistan and bringing with it much needed fresh ideas. There is howver the billion dollar question as to how our people who tend to be religious, conservative interact with a money driven athiest culture. Will problems stymie any progess as the inevitable culture crash begins to takes it's toll on the mountain high love. The recent examples of women trafficking and prostitution are not good omens. There is the potentially even bigger problem that as more interaction takes place along the CPEC could the Uighur issue explode inside Pakistan as our mullahs and Islamists decide to go the way of a jihad to help their Muslim brothers. This would cause a sharp, crushing reaction from China as they don't take to Islamists and their internal matters well.

  • 3. There was extreme issues relating to power generation, load shedding and distribution. I think that has been largely resolved thanks to CPEC although work continues on improving the distribution network. All this is of direct effect on industry.

Given the points I raised there is much hope but equally much to worry about. If all the stars line up we could see huge economic benefits from CPEC in coming years as the process begins to mature and show fruition. However if it does not and I touched on some of the reasons then in few years Pakistan could be much to the "see we said so" pleasure in debt trap as it struggles to pay off the CPEC loans. We will know by end of this government tenure by about 2023.

@Feng Leng @beijingwalker @Mangus Ortus Novem @Nilgiri

it sounds good in theory
 
for all his faults Trump is addressing certain white elephants in the room other politicians won't touch
if American voters do not like trump they can throw him out in 2020

Does pakistan have a way of unwinding CPEC projects if it is not profitable. Or is China going to insist on the garbage of contractual obligations ?



it sounds good in theory

Right, right. you guys Americans are smartest. You found tRump is stupid and regret after election. You guys can throw out tRump and elect another one who is as stupid as tRump, and regret and throw him out as well. It's a never ending game.

You guys just never take a lesson.
 
Right, right. you guys Americans are smartest. You found tRump is stupid and regret after election. You guys can throw out tRump and elect another one who is as stupid as tRump, and regret and throw him out as well. It's a never ending game.

You guys just never take a lesson.

Next time you end up with Mao. let me know how you resolve it

On a side note does Pakistan get a refund from China if CPEC does not deliver results
 
Next time you end up with Mao. let me know how you resolve it

On a side note does Pakistan get a refund from China if CPEC does not deliver results

It's mutual agreement by contract. Business is business, friendship is friendship. If CPEC failed because of bad delivery, there are terms in contracts to follow, you concern too much and none of your Americans' business. If Pakistan need some help, Chinese friendship always be there, will be there as always.
 
It's mutual agreement by contract. Business is business, friendship is friendship. If CPEC failed because of bad delivery, there are terms in contracts to follow, you concern too much and none of your Americans' business. If Pakistan need some help, Chinese friendship always be there, will be there as always.

CPEC is never meant to succeed
 
CPEC is never meant to succeed

Americans keep propagandizing "China will collapse" since I was a teenager. 20+ years passed, it proved to be a joke.

Americans can't be great again by discredit China. You are 38 years old, just wake up before it's too late.
 

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