Beidaihe 2020 agenda

[Song Hong]

This is what I hypothesized from clues within Hu Xijin writings.

* Development of nuclear weapons. China need to up nuclear warhead to 4000 (ok the number can varies), to prevent US from being reckless.

* Hike defence expenditure to 4% of GDP

* Create some sort of alliance (something like NATO-lite) to against US gangsterism

* Quasi and total Independence and self-reliance on high tech and critical sector. Now the focus is IC manufacturing equipment. Next will be software OS. Food and energy self-sufficiency also on agenda.

* Further de-dollarization and internationalization of CNY.

Since the trade deal is as good as dead

* Comprehensively clean up financial American companies in China, especially investment banks

 

[vi-va]

Nukes warhead number is not problem. problem is, 4000 warheads need at least 400-1000 ICBM and a lot of other facilities, such as subs, underground facilities, logistics, and so on.
also it will create tension with neighbors, such as Russia and India, even Japan, Australia.

That's a dilemma. I don't think China will run the nuke arm race like USSR.

China still has patience and confidence that US will be rational.

 

[vi-va]

 

[Song Hong]

Nuclear arm race is expensive. But now it could be a necessity for peace. US clearly turned rogue. To calm US recklessness, China may need an equal amount of war head.

I have read articles by US that proposed, at current Chinese nuke inventories China would be discouraged to strike back with nukes even if US strike with nuke first.

 

[PeacefulWar]

Don't read too much from Hu Xijin.
He is just a Editor of a tabloid...

 

[Song Hong]

Don't read too much from Hu Xijin.
He is just a Editor of a tabloid...

Above not really by Hu Xijin.... I compiled it based on Hu and other resources.

Below Beirut explosion 2020 may not be ammonia nitrate. It is likely MOAB. Even Hezbollah refrained from deviation from official lines. Because it would led to Lebanon declaring a war against the state pepetrator.

Rogue state need to be deter from adventurism.

 

[vi-va]

Nuclear arm race is expensive. But now it could be a necessity for peace. US clearly turned rogue. To calm US recklessness, China may need an equal amount of war head.

I have read articles by US that proposed, at current Chinese nuke inventories China would be discouraged to strike back with nukes even if US strike with nuke first.

Hu Xijin is just a big mouth. He knew too little about Nuclear Strategy or provoke intentionally.

China need 14000 km to deliver nuclear warhead, US can pressure Japan to deploy nuclear warhead on first island chain or South Korea.

It's not in Japan and South Korea's national interest to deploy US nuclear missiles, but when China deploy 4000 nuclear warhead, they may do it.

How much for 400-1000 ICBM? and how much for 1000-3000 km Medium-range ballistic missiles?

It's a dilemma as I said. US is provoking, and China has to respond. When tension raise, US will pressure ASEAN, Japan, South Korea to deploy nuclear missiles, and China has to respond further, more assertive, so tension raise even higher. Cold war started like that.

Offshore balance, nothing new.

But China is no USSR, the international environment is different. China has more choice to confront instead of militarily only.

There are many dimensions of confrontation, such as cyber warfare, psychological warfare, economy warfare, technology warfare, financial warfare, geopolitics, political stability, investment environment competition, industrial policies, technological innovation and many others.

China will not fall into the trap of nuclear arm race blindly. US just want to use his strongest advantage to over stretch China.

田忌赛马, 孙子曰：“今以君之下驷与彼上驷，取君上驷与彼中驷，取君中驷与彼下驷。”

China never play the game with rival as they preferred since Chairman Mao. 毛泽东本人所讲的，也是我军始终坚持的战略战术：“你打你的，我打我的；打得赢就打，打不赢就走。”

也就是说，你发挥你的优势，我发挥我的优势；你有你的一套打法，我有我的一套打法。走，你就打不着我；打，我就要打上你，打准你，吃掉你。能打得却不打，是机会主义；打不得却硬打，是冒险主义。我能吃了你时，就把你一口一口吃掉；吃不下你时，也不让你吃了我。

“战势不过奇正，奇正之变，不可胜穷也。”

While, China does strengthening deterrence credibility. But in a proper way, within the overall foreign policy framework. We need to make sure our deterrence won't panic our neighbors.

 

[Figaro]

Hu Xijin is just a big mouth. He knew too little about Nuclear Strategy or provoke intentionally.

China need 14000 km to deliver nuclear warhead, US can pressure Japan to deploy nuclear warhead on first island chain or South Korea.

It's not in Japan and South Korea's national interest to deploy US nuclear missiles, but when China deploy 4000 nuclear warhead, they may do it.

How much for 400-1000 ICBM? and how much for 1000-3000 km Medium-range ballistic missiles?

It's a dilemma as I said. US is provoking, and China has to respond. When tension raise, US will pressure ASEAN, Japan, South Korea to deploy nuclear missiles, and China has to respond further, more assertive, so tension raise even higher. Cold war started like that.

Offshore balance, nothing new.

But China is no USSR, the international environment is different. China has more choice to confront instead of militarily only.

There are many dimensions of confrontation, such as cyber warfare, psychological warfare, economy warfare, technology warfare, financial warfare, geopolitics, political stability, investment environment competition, industrial policies, technological innovation and many others.

China will not fall into the trap of nuclear arm race blindly. US just want to use his strongest advantage to over stretch China.

田忌赛马, 孙子曰：“今以君之下驷与彼上驷，取君上驷与彼中驷，取君中驷与彼下驷。”

China never play the game with rival as they preferred since Chairman Mao. 毛泽东本人所讲的，也是我军始终坚持的战略战术：“你打你的，我打我的；打得赢就打，打不赢就走。”

也就是说，你发挥你的优势，我发挥我的优势；你有你的一套打法，我有我的一套打法。走，你就打不着我；打，我就要打上你，打准你，吃掉你。能打得却不打，是机会主义；打不得却硬打，是冒险主义。我能吃了你时，就把你一口一口吃掉；吃不下你时，也不让你吃了我。

“战势不过奇正，奇正之变，不可胜穷也。”

While, China does strengthening deterrence credibility. But in a proper way, within the overall foreign policy framework. We need to make sure our deterrence won't panic our neighbors.

4000 warheads may not be necessary. But for a country like China, there should be a minimum of 1000 warheads. IMO only 1000+ warheads can guarantee a credible second strike capability and I have no doubt they probably already have this many. There is a reason why Trump is so desperate in urging China to come to the nuclear arms negotiations. US intelligence certainly knows China has around 1000 nukes and maybe more but it does not have enough evidence to counter decades of Western analysts and official Chinese government figures of 300 nuclear warheads. After all, these idiots still think China only has 300 nukes.

 

[OIO]

4000 warheads may not be necessary. But for a country like China, there should be a minimum of 1000 warheads. IMO only 1000+ warheads can guarantee a credible second strike capability and I have no doubt they probably already have this many. There is a reason why Trump is so desperate in urging China to come to the nuclear arms negotiations. US intelligence certainly knows China has around 1000 nukes and maybe more but it does not have enough evidence to counter decades of Western analysts and official Chinese government figures of 300 nuclear warheads. After all, these idiots still think China only has 300 nukes.

Get the same number of warheads and deliver tools or I'll not feel safe.

 

[大汉奸柳传志]

Better idea: build massive underground nuclear shelters, it's the only meaningful way of winning a nuke exchange

 

[Viet]

This is what I hypothesized from clues within Hu Xijin writings.

* Development of nuclear weapons. China need to up nuclear warhead to 4000 (ok the number can varies), to prevent US from being reckless.

* Hike defence expenditure to 4% of GDP

* Create some sort of alliance (something like NATO-lite) to against US gangsterism

* Quasi and total Independence and self-reliance on high tech and critical sector. Now the focus is IC manufacturing equipment. Next will be software OS. Food and energy self-sufficiency also on agenda.

* Further de-dollarization and internationalization of CNY.

Since the trade deal is as good as dead

* Comprehensively clean up financial American companies in China, especially investment banks

China increases nuclear weapons because she fears falling behind US nuclear might. By this logic, Vietnam and Japan must acquire nuclear weapons because both fear chinese nuclear arsenals.
I think we should have at least a submarine fleet with SLBM.
Win win.

 

[Daniel808]

Only an idiot that believe Chinese only have 275 nuclear warheads.

Let us calculate :
As we know at this moment China have 2 unit DF-41 Fourth Generation ICBM (1 in Heilongjiang, and 1 in Xinjiang).

Each DF-41 have 10-12 MIRV, and every unit of DF-41 SRF (Strategic Rocket Forces) have 12 launcher missile with another 12 reload missile. That's mean 288 Thermonuclear Warhead.

So 288 x 2 unit = 576 Thermonuclear Warhead

Not including Thermonuclear Warhead from JL-2 SLBM, DF-5B ICBM, and DF-31 ICBM

 

[vi-va]

Hu Xijin is just a big mouth. He knew too little about Nuclear Strategy or provoke intentionally.

China need 14000 km to deliver nuclear warhead, US can pressure Japan to deploy nuclear warhead on first island chain or South Korea.

It's not in Japan and South Korea's national interest to deploy US nuclear missiles, but when China deploy 4000 nuclear warhead, they may do it.

How much for 400-1000 ICBM? and how much for 1000-3000 km Medium-range ballistic missiles?

It's a dilemma as I said. US is provoking, and China has to respond. When tension raise, US will pressure ASEAN, Japan, South Korea to deploy nuclear missiles, and China has to respond further, more assertive, so tension raise even higher. Cold war started like that.

Offshore balance, nothing new.

But China is no USSR, the international environment is different. China has more choice to confront instead of militarily only.

There are many dimensions of confrontation, such as cyber warfare, psychological warfare, economy warfare, technology warfare, financial warfare, geopolitics, political stability, investment environment competition, industrial policies, technological innovation and many others.

China will not fall into the trap of nuclear arm race blindly. US just want to use his strongest advantage to over stretch China.

田忌赛马, 孙子曰：“今以君之下驷与彼上驷，取君上驷与彼中驷，取君中驷与彼下驷。”

China never play the game with rival as they preferred since Chairman Mao. 毛泽东本人所讲的，也是我军始终坚持的战略战术：“你打你的，我打我的；打得赢就打，打不赢就走。”

也就是说，你发挥你的优势，我发挥我的优势；你有你的一套打法，我有我的一套打法。走，你就打不着我；打，我就要打上你，打准你，吃掉你。能打得却不打，是机会主义；打不得却硬打，是冒险主义。我能吃了你时，就把你一口一口吃掉；吃不下你时，也不让你吃了我。

“战势不过奇正，奇正之变，不可胜穷也。”

While, China does strengthening deterrence credibility. But in a proper way, within the overall foreign policy framework. We need to make sure our deterrence won't panic our neighbors.

@Song Hong

Recommend this to you.
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI1NjAyMTg1NQ==&mid=2649505105&idx=1&sn=c3453060b7b495062b6ae9878969e7c1&chksm=f2359961c54210771c0fb9ff528d9d5d67952f7df12b82e2d3ff7928568eebb80aa61bbbe428&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=0818b1qxh5Sild31tmRburxT&sharer_sharetime=1597754540159&sharer_shareid=630f146828790a38aa65fe9cd18bd6c1&key=0b4e51c1e37fa1f7cccc6e4eacd1c133f40e88e8be8ac90c3e76edca3501bd723c2092d620fb4773fc8c53cbe7606ecab6a97fa0e2fa88c4381ca4eb9df19de8cbe2d9894428d8214c515c050c2f0c34e279597919b9985bed299ea4f1264f95cef7c8574ad9774f878d2bd9fd575657f96d83ee4d3ef28f4a2c8c6736dfd633&ascene=1&uin=MTc3NDAyNzUyMA==&devicetype=Windows+10+x64&version=62090529&lang=en&exportkey=AoLLa+XV7rMBp1T8EZswUAE=&pass_ticket=kXUqwPjEBrD+fESJaX/6C/bARu/ipHe3JKIcJ/eyf6y50DxImYGi2zjaV44X0LB1

当然，按小火箭好友们探讨的结果，这或许是巨型星座具备军事潜力的一个点：
能够接收地面指令；

能够按最优轨道规避碎片，也就同时具备了按最优轨道拦截洲际弹道导弹弹头的能力。

2018年5月份的小火箭计算中心弹道对抗演习中，部署完成的星链星座完成了对来自某地经过北极上空飞向华盛顿、洛杉矶和西雅图的总计51枚核弹头的在轨拦截。

在2018年7月份进一步地饱和打击对抗演习中，星链星座对多达350枚洲际弹道导弹的弹头进行了拦截，全部成功。

（单星拦截成功率略低于标准系列反导系统，但是配合地面陆基中段拦截弹，这个系统对于每颗弹头，都有5到7次的拦截机会，使得突防变得极其困难。）

必要时，星链星座相邻的卫星，可以实施对撞自毁，产生上百个碎片，封锁整条轨道，甚至多星自毁可以布置成太空碎片网，影响某些国家的二次核反击能力。

This is a simulation of Missile Defense System potential.

Increase warhead, or missiles by large number in a hurry blindly is what US want. US want China to shift more resource on nuclear arm race. Technology is developing fast, hyper-sonic weapons can deliver nuclear warheads much more efficient, and more importantly much better penetration capability.

Traditional ICBM will be intercepted by either laser, or Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle or Multiple Kill Vehicle. If China shift too much resource on nuclear arm race, China will have to cut budget elsewhere, that's what US propaganda main purpose.

There are some strategic analysis report I read in past several years, they want to use propaganda and psychological war to unbalance China. USSR fallen into their trap during Reagan administration. China won't.

US also tried to allure China to develop Anti-Access/Area Denial Strategies. China won't fall into US's trap. There is no Anti-Access/Area Denial Strategies at all. China want 星辰大海。We will not limit ourselves as a regional power, we will lose not matter how successful we are regionally. We will build blue navy, go beyond US in history peak.

US is completely OK if China want to be a regional power, but US is not OK if China want to be a global power.

 

[Paul2]

Nuclear arm race is expensive.

Nuclear weapons, are the most cost efficient weapons at some yield ranges.

If all civilian reactors the country have are put to plutonium production. We can produce, probably, 2 tons a year based on IAEA numbers on how much plutonium civilian reactors make during normal operation.

By what is known in open access, 100kt munitions are close to being the most efficient per unit of plutonium, and the minimum practical pit mass all countries have settled on is in between 9 to 11kt.

200 a year at least. Enough to destroy 20 tank divisions, 40 motorised divisions, and 200 airfields.

Ships, and subs are by far the most "expensive" units to destroy with nuclear weapons, each requiring one, and this while knowing that anti-missile defence is now available on ships as small as frigates, and less.

Getting nuclear neighbours will however be the main consequence.

 

[Paul2]

This is what I hypothesized from clues within Hu Xijin writings.

* Development of nuclear weapons. China need to up nuclear warhead to 4000 (ok the number can varies), to prevent US from being reckless.

* Hike defence expenditure to 4% of GDP

* Create some sort of alliance (something like NATO-lite) to against US gangsterism

* Quasi and total Independence and self-reliance on high tech and critical sector. Now the focus is IC manufacturing equipment. Next will be software OS. Food and energy self-sufficiency also on agenda.

* Further de-dollarization and internationalization of CNY.

Since the trade deal is as good as dead

* Comprehensively clean up financial American companies in China, especially investment banks

I don't think that it is Hu's remit to know what's happening in Beidaihe. Even the central committee members cannot even squeak about it.

Provincial governors for example, unless they were also PBSC members, were not know to have ever attended. Same for the cabinet.

The only queues that ever reached public were that the only attendees are the PBSC, and its retired members.

The only thing we can know this year is that there were much less fuss about it, and Xi probably been there for less than a week.

He is long past the stage when he have to give any f**k about what party's geriatric ward thinks.