Beating the system to get IMF’s blessings?

[Battle of Waterloo]

Basically I called you retard from hell equivalent to donkey’s ***....

@waz @Dubious

The Iranian guy was banned today for far less than this...

 

[Flight of falcon]

@waz @Dubious

The Iranian guy was banned today for far less than this...

True I called you this only if you are a Nawaz supporter ... so if you are then I will call you hundred times worse than this .

 

[Battle of Waterloo]

True I called you this only if you are a Nawaz supporter ... so if you are then I will call you hundred times worse than this .

I don't even know who "Nawaz" is nor do I care who is in charge of Pakistan, but whoever is in charge is clearly not doing a good job (referring to the debt crisis which will be worsened by the T-Bill interest rate and contraction in real wages expected in 2020), but that's an issue for Pakistanis to decide and none of my business. I only discuss specific news/issues/decisions.

 

[blueazure]

some facts,

the economy has slowed

manufacturing is half of what it was last year

purchasing power is down

real estate is dead
-----------------

But , on the bright side

CAD has shrunk

textile is slowly increasing

structural reforms in PIA etc are slowly bearing fruit

i say 2020 end and we start going up in charts


-----------------------

now ive been very vocal against this govt economic policies ( the pain it has inflicted on business) , but im ready to take all that pain if there is light at the end.

take real estate , things are not that bad as we were six months ago.

people have rationalized and are buying smaller plots and not splurging any more

 

[shah_123]

Can moderators please take notice and stop this Indian troll from starting so many useless threads. It’s really lowering the quality of this forum. This moron posts every news against IK as facts and propagate gloom and doom scenarios unnecessarily ...

Stop complaining like a village woman..

 

[Samlee]

Ignorance is bliss...

If you disagree with what's written in the top post then you can simply explain why it is wrong/misleading and everyone will be more knowledgeable as a result. But since you just want to shut it down I assume it is painfully accurate...

Gentleman The News/Jang/Geo News Is Known To Be Pro PML N And Hav Always Had Bias Against PTI What Is Being Told To You Above Is Half Truth

 

[Flight of falcon]

Stop complaining like a village woman..

Oh sorry village randi....

 

[Samlee]

Heh. Not surprising.

A thook chat (spit licker) who broke his every promise is in power. The state of economy is evident if you bother to step your foot outside your house.

In Pakistan, that is. Not in UK or US where these experts defending IK are sitting in, heh

The State of The Economy Was Evident in 2015 When I Saw Labourers In Faisalabad Crying and Banging Their Heads On The Wall When Their Textile Mill Shut Down

 

[El Sidd]

IMF cannot run Pakistan. They can however ensure corrupt government's tenure which happens every so often in Pakistan

 

[Battle of Waterloo]

some facts,

the economy has slowed

manufacturing is half of what it was last year

purchasing power is down

real estate is dead
-----------------

But , on the bright side

CAD has shrunk

textile is slowly increasing

structural reforms in PIA etc are slowly bearing fruit

i say 2020 end and we start going up in charts

-----------------------

now ive been very vocal against this govt economic policies ( the pain it has inflicted on business) , but im ready to take all that pain if there is light at the end.

take real estate , things are not that bad as we were six months ago.

people have rationalized and are buying smaller plots and not splurging any more

Informative and balanced post, thanks for sharing.

 

[shah_123]

Oh sorry village randi....

Carry on, I don't complain like a village woman.

 

[ps3linux]

This is actually something structural...it goes past whatever current admin is running Pakistan govt.

Let us look at Pakistan exports composition in 2017:

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/pak/

Essentially "Textiles" (green block) makes up 60% of Pakistan's exports by revenue.

The thing is the physical scale-ability issue given Pakistan already has low/zero tariff for this from Europe and US for many years....compared to the biggest exporter of this class of products (China).

To look at why countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh and India are not making any significant fast headway into Chinese market share of RMG exports (even with US trade war tariffs now imposed on China, though I am unsure how much was put on RMG specifically)....compared to say Vietnam...one has to look at the structural issues.

Lot of that also goes past pricing too, so simply devaluation wont help all that much.

Say if your T-shirts now cost 5 dollars per unit to a bulk-importer and before it cost 7 dollars..so he puts in a bigger order for them...you are now earning less per shirt (in forex USD terms) and you have to put in more relative input (on your end) per forex earned....and a local company has to factor this in if its profitable (given its PKR commitments on ground).

These relative inputs can also be seeing all kinds of local inflation in your home country...stuff like energy, transport, food and whatever else concerns the labour and capital...especially given capital import costs + sinks for lot of import industries. This is basically the counterforce when you simply have higher volume when currency gets devalued.

The more jarring immediate effect is from the import side by far. Demand compression....because what you can now buy (from limited providers/cartels, esp for energy and increasingly capital goods too) always is felt more immediately than your ability to sell more volume to a crowded competitive, saturated (and often inertia driven) market.

Simply put there are far more linkages in between on the export connection to devaluation compared to import connection. The number and correlation of such linkages depends on your reform drive internally to have better correlation and standards with those source references (say USD/world market) you also ultimately measure things by.

It is ultimately about being the best in tune you can be with the information flow and highway of these economic sectors....so you can best tap your own energy and momentum for it (and finally realize important sustianed gain in investment rate and capital formation) rather than be always caught and stuck in making painful amends for either missing the bus, or boarding the wrong one.

@Oscar @Chak Bamu @Signalian @VCheng @ps3linux @niaz @AgNoStiC MuSliM @farhan_9909 @waz @Arsalan @WAJsal @Joe Shearer @Jungibaaz

Sorry preparing for the departure to your part of the world in a couple of days or to @VCheng 's more specifically.
Despite the fact this section of the board requires people with a certain kind of skill set to be able to contribute meaningfully, unfortunately, this section particularly attract fanboys of one party or the other, copy paste intellectuals what else?

Where should I start, well ok oec data on export complexity when I look at Bangladesh,India and Pakistan (alphabetically nothing else) export mix for Bangladesh it is garments which have a lions share in total exports, India bit more complex but analyzing the work force, population size, infrastructure is no where close to what it should be, Pakistan over 60% is just what I call (vest, socks, towels, undergarments, bed sheets and T shirts). I mean yes India has a large share in diamonds and jewelry market bit ahead of Belgium (I think 7 billion dollars ahead of Belgium) if I equate it with diamonds imports (20.7 billion dollars) net value addition is $5.8 billion; but the real question is that the real potential of a billion plus population.

Unfortunately, threads like this attract fanboys of two opposing parties who see things only in the shades of black or white and no room for any shade of grey. In a way I agree with one of the Bangladeshis on this forum that even the low cost market is worth a trillion dollars no one among these three countries has a meaningful share of this market. RMG I agree this market is totally dominated by Chinese, I mean I have traveled extensively had my share of shopping for both of the boys while they were growing up and I don't ever remember except for a couple of times when we found any RMG except from Chinese origin. A big opportunity for us.

I have never really agreed with IMF model, of high interest rates, economic contraction and rapid devaluation of currency and their after effects on the common man, unfortunately, for a country like us getting a vetting from IMF is compulsory simply because what out MoF and x finance ministers had done in the past has caught up to us international financial institutions want us to get a vetting from IMF before they consider lending us anything.

The inflation created through IMF program has two dimension particularly when i comes to Garments exports, at one end the life of a common man becomes difficult due to inflation, considering the fact that export items in the category averages at $6, with a ballpark 50% increase in exchange rates, in PKR term the labor has become extremely cheap thus where previously companies missed out on $6 export orders they have now become competitive accepting orders, employing new work force, although the volume has increased many time as compared to dollars terms but every exporter I know in this line of business is booked for total production till October next year, every one is planning expansion in the range of 18-50%. While there is a down side there is a positive side as well.

I agree though that we need to look beyond this $6 export item RMG, bespoke suiting are a good target market.

 

[VCheng]

Sorry preparing for the departure to your part of the world in a couple of days or to @VCheng 's more specifically.

Good luck with the goal for which you are traveling.

 

[Nilgiri]

Where should I start, well ok oec data on export complexity when I look at Bangladesh,India and Pakistan (alphabetically nothing else) export mix for Bangladesh it is garments which have a lions share in total exports, India bit more complex but analyzing the work force, population size, infrastructure is no where close to what it should be, Pakistan over 60% is just what I call (vest, socks, towels, undergarments, bed sheets and T shirts). I mean yes India has a large share in diamonds and jewelry market bit ahead of Belgium (I think 7 billion dollars ahead of Belgium) if I equate it with diamonds imports (20.7 billion dollars) net value addition is $5.8 billion; but the real question is that the real potential of a billion plus population.

Of course its nowhere near real potential of India or any other developing country, hence they are developing.

Complexity wise, India also has around 200+ billion of service exports that would add another category there....but of course its just merchandise exports there at OEC.

The inflation created through IMF program has two dimension particularly when i comes to Garments exports, at one end the life of a common man becomes difficult due to inflation, considering the fact that export items in the category averages at $6, with a ballpark 50% increase in exchange rates, in PKR term the labor has become extremely cheap thus where previously companies missed out on $6 export orders they have now become competitive accepting orders, employing new work force, although the volume has increased many time as compared to dollars terms but every exporter I know in this line of business is booked for total production till October next year, every one is planning expansion in the range of 18-50%. While there is a down side there is a positive side as well.

Yup I will give a full window of time for this to realise...my intention was to explain there is lot more going on in Pakistan (given how much need to be sorted out and streamlined first) before devaluation can really enter picture immediately from export generation side.

I agree though that we need to look beyond this $6 export item RMG, bespoke suiting are a good target market.

Yes, there will need to be sound strategy from the planners where the strengths are that can be tapped, so buffers accumulate and then re-deploy to other sectors over time for better capex and growth there.

Despite the fact this section of the board requires people with a certain kind of skill set to be able to contribute meaningfully, unfortunately, this section particularly attract fanboys of one party or the other, copy paste intellectuals what else?

Yup bulk of this thread fell victim to it too. But I will pick and choose some threads now and then for a bit of expanded analysis on some salient point that often are overlooked.

Sorry preparing for the departure to your part of the world in a couple of days or to @VCheng 's more specifically.

Best of luck and best wishes on that matter.

 

[ps3linux]

Good luck with the goal for which you are traveling.

Yup bulk of this thread fell victim to it too. But I will pick and choose some threads now and then for a bit of expanded analysis on some salient point that often are overlooked.
Best of luck and best wishes on that matter.

Thank for the wishes he has already flown to east coast, had his first appointment with the doc on Friday and I am flying out tonight.

What I usually say it is a curse to be born with IQ, specially while reading junk on discussion boards or dealing with retards.