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Bangladesh Falls Apart

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Bangladesh Falls Apart
BY Kathryn Alexeeff
The political situation in Bangladesh has gone from bad to worse. In the months leading up to national elections, hundreds were killed in political violence, and leaders of opposition political parties were jailed, put under house arrest, or forced to flee the country. With the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) boycotting elections in January and voter turnout as low as 20 percent, the electoral outcome is widely considered illegitimate.

While Bangladesh has never been the epitome of democracy, the dubious elections and ongoing violence have pushed the country to the brink of disaster. The unstable political situation threatens Bangladesh's economy, already under fire due to extraordinarily low wages and unsafe factories.

With no signs of the violence stopping or stability returning, Bangladesh seems likely to continue to spiral downward in 2014, headed towards another military coup or full-blown civil war.

The blame for the current situation can be laid squarely on the ongoing political rivalry between Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina, often called the "two ladies." Zia and Hasina have traded off ruling Bangladesh for the past 20 years. Each is in control of one of the country's two largest political parties, with Hasina in charge of the Awami League and Zia in charge of the BNP. They are the most powerful political figures in Bangladesh, and their bitter rivalry has led the country to the brink of disaster.

Given their past, it is highly unlikely that the two ladies will ever reach a peaceful political compromise. They have ignored multiple opportunities to find middle ground over the past few months, instead choosing to hurl recriminations at each other. Neither was willing to budge an inch before the election, even though doing so could have helped stop violence from tearing the country apart. Their actions have proven that winning is more important to them than stopping the violence or governing Bangladesh.

Bangladesh has few good options in its future. Since the elections, Hasina has refused to engage in discussions with the opposition as long as they continue to support unrest. Because "unrest" can be defined as anything from peaceful protests to an outright terrorist attack, it is unlikely that Hasina will engage in talks with the opposition in the near future. She has little reason to, since she already has what she wants: another term in office with the continued support of India and only muted condemnation from the rest of world.

Even so, one-party rule under the Awami League is unlikely to stabilize anytime soon. Opposition violence continues, and the BNP shows no signs of backing down. Stable one-party rule cannot begin until the opposition has been sufficiently repressed so that they no longer pose a threat - and the BNP and other opposition parties are far from broken yet.
Furthermore, Hasina's popular backing is beginning to crumble, as low voter turnout in the last election indicates. Voter turnout of only 20-30 percent does not mean the majority of the population opposes Hasina per se; however, it does indicate that the backbone of her popular support is small. A largely indifferent population and a militant opposition are a shaky basis for an autocracy. Such a regime would need consistent and unwavering military and police backing, something on which Hasina cannot count.

Given these dynamics, the military may yet step in and take control in a coup. The military has taken control from civilian governments before, most recently in 2007, when Bangladesh faced a similar situation. Fraudulent elections, that time by the BNP, and political violence led the military to wrest control from civilian leaders and declare a state of emergency.

As in 2007, however, a military coup today would suppress dissention and violence for short time, at most. It would not be able to address the underlying causes of the current crisis: the feud between Zia and Hasina, as well as the mentality that electoral victory means the winner prosecutes the loser. The country is just as polarized now as it was six years ago, if not more.
In the worst scenario, the political violence would continue to escalate until Bangladesh descends into civil war. The progression might be similar to the current Syrian civil war, in which protests morphed into armed opposition and the development of militant groups, before gaining the momentum to become a full-fledged war.

Bangladesh is currently between the first and second stages: The government is cracking down on ongoing protests, but it is unclear how far the opposition has moved towards militancy. One of the main opposition groups, Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami, has been launching attacks against the Hindu minority. While these attacks are not directed at the government, they have a political dimension, since Bangladesh's Hindus are more likely to support the secular Awami League.

The attacks are also a clear indication of Bangladesh's crumbling domestic security - a product of a growing security vacuum. Civil wars are rarely a simple conflict between government and opposition. They are also opportunities to persecute minorities, often because the powers that are nominally in charge are stretched too thin to offer protection.
Two bad options
Amid the current turmoil, Hasina's grip on power seems unlikely to last. If opposition protests continue, the country will be left with two bad options.

One is a military coup, which would suppress political tensions but not resolve them. The parties' opposing visions of Bangladesh remain even deeper than the Zia-Hasina feud: The BNP defines Bangladesh primarily as an Islamic nation, while the Awami League backs a secular state based on Bengali ethnicity. Since it would not begin to resolve that tension, a military coup would likely land Bangladesh in a similar political situation in just a few more years.


The other option -- civil war -- would come at a catastrophic cost, potentially including hundreds of thousands of deaths, a massive refugee influx into India, and the ethnic cleansing of Bangladesh's Hindu population.
Regardless of which direction the country takes, 2014 looks likely to be a very bad year for Bangladesh.Bangladesh Falls Apart
 
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i noticed that BAL politicians have been talking tremendously for some time now that BNP should stop alliance with JI. i was recently watching BAL's Mohammad Arafat debating with Mahi Choudhary (son of ex-BNP Dr. Badar-ud-Doja) on TV. M. Arafat kept maintaining that BNP and JI has produced an 'unhealthy' alliance and associated their alliance to "fundamentalism" and "terrorism". and then the usual BAL loose talk of chetana chetana.

what does BAL or even India have to gain from this or what is your take on the dynamics here?

@MBI Munshi @kalu_miah @Md Akmal @M_Saint @Skies (others feel free to discuss)
 
The government can ban JeI anytime it wants, if it does they will make BNP stronger as the JeI will simply join the BNP. JeI is BNP's firepower and separating JeI from BNP weakens BNP a great deal. And India immediate objective is to weaken the 19 party alliance and seperating JeI from Jamaat is the first.
 
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i noticed that BAL politicians have been talking tremendously for some time now that BNP should stop alliance with JI. i was recently watching BAL's Mohammad Arafat debating with Mahi Choudhary (son of ex-BNP Dr. Badar-ud-Doja) on TV. M. Arafat kept maintaining that BNP and JI has produced an 'unhealthy' alliance and associated their alliance to "fundamentalism" and "terrorism". and then the usual BAL loose talk of chetana chetana.

what does BAL or even India have to gain from this or what is your take on the dynamics here?

@MBI Munshi @kalu_miah @Md Akmal @M_Saint @Skies (others feel free to discuss)

The policy of detaching JeI from the BNP is part of the program of eliminating Islamic parties from Bangladesh to achieve forced secularization of society and ensure BNP never regains power.
 
The policy of detaching JeI from the BNP is part of the program of eliminating Islamic parties from Bangladesh to achieve forced secularization of society and ensure BNP never regains power.
what is the army's take on this, are China or U.S willing to back it up, in case they step in as external help will be need , what is China's position on the current situation, think about it can get a very pro-China country (BD) bordering the Asian nations & a deep sea port if it can strike a deal with the army, but is the army interested that's the $ million dollar question
 
what is the army's take on this, are China or U.S willing to back it up, in case they step in as external help will be need , what is China's position on the current situation, think about it can get a very pro-China country (BD) bordering the Asian nations & a deep sea port if it can strike a deal with the army, but is the army interested that's the $ million dollar question

No the army is not interested because of the UN peace missions. I think China has an interest not to see India gobble up Bangladesh because of the growing India-Japan alliance. The Americans have a similar concern.
 
I'm not familiar with Bangladeshi politics, therefore, is this something new or is it just the usual politics in the country?
 
I'm not familiar with Bangladeshi politics, therefore, is this something new or is it just the usual politics in the country?

This usually happens during election time but this is different because of Indian interference and the holding of fraudulent elections and the extra-judicial killings by the AL government which has surpassed anything seen since Independence. The main problem is that Indian support for the AL on this occasion has been quite naked and blatant and New Delhi is the main obstacle to any resolution of this dispute in Bangladesh.
 
The government can ban JeI anytime it wants, if it does they will make BNP stronger as the JeI will simply join the BNP. JeI is BNP's firepower and separating JeI from BNP weakens BNP a great deal. And India immediate objective is to weaken the 19 party alliance and seperating JeI from Jamaat is the first.

In case of a ban JeI members' joining BNP would be highly unlikely. Party leadership would simply lose controll over the members and once the ban is lifted they would have to start from nil. It'd be better for them to form another party with a different name.

what is the army's take on this, are China or U.S willing to back it up, in case they step in as external help will be need , what is China's position on the current situation, think about it can get a very pro-China country (BD) bordering the Asian nations & a deep sea port if it can strike a deal with the army, but is the army interested that's the $ million dollar question

In my opinion the US and the Chinese interests in BD are somewhat conflicting. As for military interference, at present there is a mutual distrust of each other among the officers.
 
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i noticed that BAL politicians have been talking tremendously for some time now that BNP should stop alliance with JI. i was recently watching BAL's Mohammad Arafat debating with Mahi Choudhary (son of ex-BNP Dr. Badar-ud-Doja) on TV. M. Arafat kept maintaining that BNP and JI has produced an 'unhealthy' alliance and associated their alliance to "fundamentalism" and "terrorism". and then the usual BAL loose talk of chetana chetana.

what does BAL or even India have to gain from this or what is your take on the dynamics here?

@MBI Munshi @kalu_miah @Md Akmal @M_Saint @Skies (others feel free to discuss)


I think BAL and India have gained a lot, they have got many supporters at their side who can talk for BAL as like words of mouth for BAL. And all of these are made possible because of years of media campaigns and exposer of their thinking. The way BAL has offered/gave Bangladeshis a "Bengali identity", BNP could not use such way to offer/give a "Bangladeshi identity" to Bangladeshi people. Then common Bangladeshi are less confidence and more confused today about their identity.

The only solution I see is pour money on army/police/RAB more than BAL does. I do not think BNP can also come into power without bribing and engineering, because general people are scared to revolt to support BNP even they want BNP.

I think breaking with JI wont help BNP, cos:

1. BAL will just find another excuse or would say "once BNP had relation with JI, still they have secretly or they are run by JI secretly".
2. Plus breaking with JI would prove that BNP was wrong and BAL was right.
3. Plus, Breaking with JI would would strengthen the secularism in to society, which would ultimately make Bangladeshis less resistant to any Indian issue/proposal even that is harmful for BD.

The main think BNP would need to do is, if comes in power again, use media media and media to expose all the crimes of BAL against BD to the people.
 
The policy of detaching JeI from the BNP is part of the program of eliminating Islamic parties from Bangladesh to achieve forced secularization of society and ensure BNP never regains power.
Whats wrong in creating secular bangladesh?
 
Whats wrong in creating secular bangladesh?

Islamists don't like secularism. Treating everybody equally irrespective of their faith, the government and laws being religion-neutral, these niceties are anathema to them. Besides, nobody in the arab world likes secularism, so the wannabe arabs don't want any of that either.
 
Islamists don't like secularism. Treating everybody equally irrespective of their faith, the government and laws being religion-neutral, these niceties are anathema to them. Besides, nobody in the arab world likes secularism, so the wannabe arabs don't want any of that either.
No wonder these scumbags are hated across the globe. And are getting thrashed everywhere from Bangladesh to Egypt :lol:. What is more funny is these hypocritical c***s are sitting and enjoying the benefits of secularism and multiculturism in Western countries (see above how many are sitting in USA, UK etc)
 
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No wonder these scumbags are hated across the globe. And are getting thrashed everywhere from Bangladesh to Egypt :lol:
Funny thing is, wherever these islamists get thrashed by the people of their own country, they immediately blame secularism and foreigners. Egyptian islamists blame USA, wannabe-arab islamists in Bangladesh blame India, when their terrrorist leaders get the noose.
 

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