Bangladesh Economic & Infrastructure Development - Updates & Discussions

[Nilgiri]

What I was saying that I don't understand how things add up.
BD's exports + Remittance is certainly higher than imports. Yet lately Forex has been stagnant/slightly decreasing.

Well in your calculation you probably forgot service trade.

For 2017 BD (World Bank figures):

In goods the deficit is about 12 billion USD (35.5 - 47.6)

In services the deficit is about 5.5 billion USD (3.9 - 9.3)

Remittance, surplus is about 13.5 billion USD

So just from that the total deficit generated is around 4 billion USD for 2017.

Add to this various other net incomes/investment components from abroad (things regarding loans, investments etc...remember capital account surplus equals current account deficit, just the specific components are tallied up different) and the deficit totals to 10 billion for 2017.

This is partly why forex is now stagnant. What BD used to accrue before (when Cur. A was in small surplus or near zero) in forex (i.e foreign investment into Govt bonds largely) is now I would assume breaking even with the larger (and growing) current Account deficit....hence forex remains about the same for last cpl years.

Couple of years ago we used to see news like 'Forex reserve record high' in every 2-3 month in this section of PDF. Have you noticed how they disappeared?

Yes..but need give a chunk of more time til 2020 I would say for a firmer trend to base on. It is start of phase 2 for BD economy (transitioning from phase 1).

Cur. Account deficit is not automatically bad thing...it really depends. In fact it can be argued to be good thing as well if its private company driven (and of things with long term economic chain inside BD). South Asia should not be seeking to blindly follow SEZ/export model of East Asia (given bulk of China I mentioned before...that is now going to be stuck there even longer courtesy of the trade war brewing now)...rather it should be hedging in all aspects and models of growth. The key is free markets...and govt focusing only on things where govt is proven net positive.

Banking sector is going down the drain. Govt are giving approving way too many banks and the bank owners are using this opportunity to plunder the capital of the banks. Then ask govt to bail out......BD need to reduce the number of banks. Someday ago the finance minister expressed his frustration about govt giving approval to five new banks despite his disagreement.
Stocks are doing okay for now I guess.
BD needs a hard reset in economic sectors. Even if it cause some short term problems. But not likely. Even if BNP or someother gains power they're likely to continue the same sort of economic policies.

Yes bank capitalization is big issue in BD. My friend updates me on it a lot...his family scaling of their successful business is affected in various ways with credit flows. There is not balance and stability....and this is major dissonance given the sentiment of political stability being argued for in favour of BAL.

You need institution stability (esp finance and legal frameworks) and reform stability (i.e long term bureaucratic reform drive, merit based policy prescriptions and hirings/firings) first....then only political stability/competition even enters the discussion.

Bureaucrats are untouchable in BD. Because they help the govt to keep their power. No govt will touch them. What happens, when a new govt comes, the bureaucrats that are deemed loyalists of the previous govt are transferred to less important places or made OSD(Officer in Special Duty, in other words, no duty just collect your paycheck every month).

Yup common thing in developing world. But even with this basic model in operation, improvements can be made by having some clear merit based process as 2nd driver....but problem is BD is not really even trying there...it treats the swap out/swap in as only thing that needs to happen.

It needs more kinds of industries man...thats the final thing that will kick it up a gear or two in this whole system. I say this because its what worked in TN....once you have the govt thugs competing across a whole swathe of labour unions etc...they are forced to run calculations and achieve more efficiency (as greedy as their intent still is) to stay in power against the other parties. When you have just one industry (RMG) and thus just one pool of "new" labour allocation (outside agriculture and retail which are traditional heritage stuff) essentially...you make it too easy for political thugs to dictate absolute terms....to me this explains why BD is not simply reducing excise rates on other industries like 10 years ago itself (and still not doing it now)....everything is to just be one controlled route to gaining some wealth....because thats the best for big bureaucratic govt.

I don't have problems with BD borrowing money for building infrastructures. But BD has to gain the knowledge and expertise too. Tell me, after Dhaka metro rail, will we be able to develop Chittagong metro rail without foreign involvement? Will we be able to develop the 2nd nuclear power plant, bridges like Padma bridge ourselves? If not than more money should be put into education and industrial training than those infrastructures. One reason I support the nucelar power plant is at least BD people will learn how to operate a nuclear power plant. It's not the structure that is necessary but the knowledge and expertise.

Problem is the money could be put into way more useful (and immediately and long term more relevant) knowledge and expertise at far greater scale for BD. Nuclear is very very niche and very very specific/limited as to its impact (on labour pool)...you need far more things driving its development (at larger strategic levels) than just the energy demand to have it really make sense. Otherwise you just end up subsidizing those that have invested into those strategies...with little to show for it yourself. There are a million different technical and research capacities that should be picked from (for BD) before you come to nuclear, esp sinking in 18 billion dollars into it...imo.

 

[Nilgiri]

@Mage

It looks like the super-merging has been reversed. Whats up with that.

 

[Homo Sapiens]

Meanwhile Bd had several flash point with Myanmar and Rohingya case actually quite severe and if it happened against any country in ASEAN can flare up into military conflict (they drove their people into other country boundaries, using firearms in border area and breach airspace with armed chopper firing in anger) well if its Indonesia we put war first before negotiation.

More hollow boasting. Even India and China was forced to take refugee from myanmar. Refugee problem is something which can not be solved by military means. Show me any example where a country was attacked because it send refugees to other countries? If Bangladesh attacked myanmar, at the onset of Rohingya crisis, then irrespective of combat outcome, it would have served the burmese narrative of Rohingyas being a tool of Bangladeshi aggression against myammar state. myanmar is trying hard to sell this theory for a long time to the international community. To deflect international criticism from them and to turn that criticism towards Bangladesh, they tried to provoke Bangladesh into a military clash repeatedly so that they can present atrocity against Rohingyas by their armed forces and resulting refugee crisis as Bangladeshi aggression where myanmar is fighting a legitimate battle of protecting national sovereignty. Now burmese are alone facing the condemnation and they have no excuse to not to repatriate the Rohingya refugees. International community now firmly believe that Rohingyas are burmese people and have to be repatriated there with full citizenship rights.

 

[Bilal9]

Guys I believe we should refrain from tagging and replying to trolls who have nothing of value to post except useless d!ck measuring. Bangladesh does not have to be like Pakistan and vice versa. They have good/bad folks just like we do. Regardless of what trolls say.

This is pointless and is already looking like a sh!tfight...

 

[bluesky]

What I was saying that I don't understand how things add up.
BD's exports + Remittance is certainly higher than imports. Yet lately Forex has been stagnant/slightly decreasing.
Couple of years ago we used to see news like 'Forex reserve record high' in every 2-3 month in this section of PDF. Have you noticed how they disappeared?

মনে হইতাছে ধার করা পয়সা দিয়ে ঘী ভাত খাওয়ার আলামত এখনই একটু একটু করিয়া শুরু হইয়া গিয়াছে। নগদ ডলার তো চীন পদ্মা সেতু বানানোর খরচ হিসাবেই লইয়া যাইতেছে। ডলারের পরিমান তাইলে বাড়বো কেমনে? পদ্মা সেতুও দরকার আর রূপপুরও দরকার। তবে, দেশ গরিব বিধায় বিনা হিসাবে খরচ করলেই তো চলবেনা। এ সমস্ত বড়লোকি আরো দুই দশক পরে অর্থনীতি আরো অনেক চাঙ্গা হওয়ার পর করা উচিত ছিল। কিন্তু, আওয়ামী লীগ উন্নয়নের অতি জোয়ার দেখানোর জন্য ব্যস্ত কারণ নির্বাচনে জেতার দরকার। সেতুর বদলে ফেরি আর রূপপুরের বদলে অন্য পন্থায় বিদ্যুৎ উৎপাদন করার ব্যবস্থা করা কি খারাব হইতো?

 

[Homo Sapiens]

সেতুর বদলে ফেরি আর রূপপুরের বদলে অন্য পন্থায় বিদ্যুৎ উৎপাদন করার ব্যবস্থা করা কি খারাব হইতো?

আপনার মাথা ঠিক আছে তো? পদ্মা সেতুর বদলে ফেরী ?!!! বাংলাদেশের অতি বড় আহাম্মকেও বলবে পদ্মা সেতু আরো অনেক আগে হওয়া দরকার ছিল ।

 

[Mage]

মনে হইতাছে ধার করা পয়সা দিয়ে ঘী ভাত খাওয়ার আলামত এখনই একটু একটু করিয়া শুরু হইয়া গিয়াছে। নগদ ডলার তো চীন পদ্মা সেতু বানানোর খরচ হিসাবেই লইয়া যাইতেছে। ডলারের পরিমান তাইলে বাড়বো কেমনে? পদ্মা সেতুও দরকার আর রূপপুরও দরকার। তবে, দেশ গরিব বিধায় বিনা হিসাবে খরচ করলেই তো চলবেনা। এ সমস্ত বড়লোকি আরো দুই দশক পরে অর্থনীতি আরো অনেক চাঙ্গা হওয়ার পর করা উচিত ছিল। কিন্তু, আওয়ামী লীগ উন্নয়নের অতি জোয়ার দেখানোর জন্য ব্যস্ত কারণ নির্বাচনে জেতার দরকার। সেতুর বদলে ফেরি আর রূপপুরের বদলে অন্য পন্থায় বিদ্যুৎ উৎপাদন করার ব্যবস্থা করা কি খারাব হইতো?

Tbh...Padma Bridge and Metro Rail are two much needed infrastructures. BD should have built them back in 80's or 90's. Heck, construction of Padma bridge was in the election manifesto of Awami league back in 1970, Pakistan period. Also better infrastructures encourage investments and not only that it also improves people's lives. Imagine,. you need 4 hours to move from place A to place B. But now because of a bridge you can get there in 2 hours. Padma bridge is actually very much needed. Although it would've been better if we could built it ourselves.

Rooppur power pant maybe is debatable. But I'm sure it was done thinking about the long term impacts.

Well in your calculation you probably forgot service trade.

For 2017 BD (World Bank figures):

In goods the deficit is about 12 billion USD (35.5 - 47.6)

In services the deficit is about 5.5 billion USD (3.9 - 9.3)

Remittance, surplus is about 13.5 billion USD

So just from that the total deficit generated is around 4 billion USD for 2017.

Add to this various other net incomes/investment components from abroad (things regarding loans, investments etc...remember capital account surplus equals current account deficit, just the specific components are tallied up different) and the deficit totals to 10 billion for 2017.

This is partly why forex is now stagnant. What BD used to accrue before (when Cur. A was in small surplus or near zero) in forex (i.e foreign investment into Govt bonds largely) is now I would assume breaking even with the larger (and growing) current Account deficit....hence forex remains about the same for last cpl years.

Makes sense.

if its private company driven (and of things with long term economic chain inside BD).

Perhaps it is a combination.
My father said, the company he works for is finding it hard to get USD as govt has a lot of payments to make which takes priority. At the same time imports by non-govt entities are also high. I read a news that the central bank is trying hard to control devaluation of BDT in relation to USD by seling some USD to other banks.

In order to bring some respite, Bangladesh Bank has been selling dollars in limited quantity to commercial banks.

https://www.dhakatribune.com/business/2018/03/19/dollar-crisis-bangladesh

Yes bank capitalization is big issue in BD. My friend updates me on it a lot...his family scaling of their successful business is affected in various ways with credit flows. There is not balance and stability....and this is major dissonance given the sentiment of political stability being argued for in favour of BAL.

You need institution stability (esp finance and legal frameworks) and reform stability (i.e long term bureaucratic reform drive, merit based policy prescriptions and hirings/firings) first....then only political stability/competition even enters the discussion.

I guess it has to get worse before it gets better. If one or two banks fail then govt will be forced to do something. Actually several banks probably would have failed by now without govt support. And govt has made some changes in those bank's management board.

 

[bluesky]

আপনার মাথা ঠিক আছে তো? পদ্মা সেতুর বদলে ফেরী ?!!! বাংলাদেশের অতি বড় আহাম্মকেও বলবে পদ্মা সেতু আরো অনেক আগে হওয়া দরকার ছিল ।

Yes, you are correct if BD is a rich country, and do not worry about my MATHA. For a poor country and without that much of emergency a cheap and functional transportation system is what should be adopted. Now, tell me about Aricha. Is it not Ferry that we use to cross the mighty Padma there? So, am I an Ahammak for pointing out this? Do everything you want, but after another 20 years when the economic muscle is stronger.

However, I have no objection if the Deshi engineers/engineering companies can do the projects. In that case, I will ask you to build a hundred more long bridges as well as a 400 km long sea-bridge from Payra to Chittagong and then to Teknaf connecting all the islands in between, no complaint. But, what BD is doing now is equal to eating GHEE-Bhat, and the GHEE is produced in the foreign countries.

 

[Nilgiri]

I read a news that the central bank is trying hard to control devaluation of BDT in relation to USD by seling some USD to other banks.

Well that just highlights they have no confidence in BD export sector. A weaker Taka would help exports (and push back to equilibrium in current account that way). But they are obviously afraid the imports are much more inelastic (and the real data they have better access to than what BAL allows to be disseminated to the media for feel good) and thus need to be essentially subsidized with forex selling pre-preemptively.

This is why that other news about import growth "slowing" is not to be celebrated that much (not till say a chunk of 3 - 5 more years data is out there). We are talking about its growth slowing (that too for just one quarter where a higher base effect can be playing a role)...not the actual import and deficit level (which is still increasing).

I guess it has to get worse before it gets better. If one or two banks fail then govt will be forced to do something. Actually several banks probably would have failed by now without govt support. And govt has made some changes in those bank's management board.

Honestly BD govt should just directly insure citizens savings (start out to some threshold level if there is not enough backing capital and expand from there as economy/wealth grows) and then let banks rise and fail (due to their decisions) within the free market (and have a transparent resolution mechanism to address that) and create and enforce good standards, credit rating systems and global best practices.

Doing temporary interventions are easier (esp politically) than this more long term solution...but it just reinforces accepting institutional flaw and inefficiency created by govt itself (for it to exploit politically down the road)....rather than catering to genuine economic needs of the country as a whole.

Govt should finance market failure directly wherever possible (be it "high" market cost of education through vouchers rather than creating public education monolith or personal savings insurance like FDIC, rather than bank bailouts etc). A genuine govt (with its people's best interests put first) should not be in the business of investing into dozens of levers, several times removed from this market failure....both from the inefficiency (and thus accumulated cost and waste) caused by such a system but also its exploitation potential for politics. Rather it should create the standards, enforce them....and subsidize any distortions it feels there are in the market price directly (to the consumer).

@bluesky @Tanveer666 @hellfire @Joe Shearer

 

[Nilgiri]

This has more of the concept I am talking about:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...ess-model-to-survive/articleshow/66834693.cms

Imagine a govt having to micromanage into each one for purported "greater social interest"....it will end up spoiling even more. So same concept applies to more regular banks too imo. Standards and resolution processes (basically good legislation and good courts) is the way to go for govt.

 

[Mage]

Shipbuilding a hidden gem in Bangladesh: ADB
Tribune Desk

• Published at 10:29 pm November 27th, 2018

Manmohan Parkash Courtesy

Parkash, a professional with over 32 years of experience, oversees the implementation of the ADB Country Partnership Strategy for Bangladesh (2016-2020)

Country Director of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) Manmohan Parkash has expressed the optimism that Bangladesh will be known as a ‘technically advanced nation’ producing large ships through development of skills.

“It’s (shipbuilding) a hidden gem,” he told UNB after visiting Western Marine Shipyard at Patiya upazila of Chattogram district where he witnessed progress under the ADB-assisted skills for employment investment programme, reports UNB.

He said Bangladesh has tremendous potentials with its economy growing at 7 to 8 percent currently but the growth can become 8-10 percent if people are trained with the right education. “I’ve absolutely no doubt.”

Parkash highlighted five things -- good policymaking, good tech management, investing in infrastructure, investing skills and human capital; and embracing the new technologies for better Bangladesh with a stronger economy.

“These five things can make Bangladesh a well-developed country. That’s a dream I have, that’s a passion you have. We can work together to really make Bangladesh a beautiful and wonderful country,” he said.

Parkash, a professional with over 32 years of experience, oversees the implementation of the ADB Country Partnership Strategy for Bangladesh (2016-2020).

Responding to another question, he said Bangladesh is a very blessed country and it is a land of opportunities.

“The only thing it needs is to harness the endowment it has. It has so many endowments. One of the biggest endowments is its people. You have young population. You have such youths who are hungry for knowledge and who have a passion to do something good for tomorrow,” Parkash said.

And, he added, they (young people) want to build a good Bangladesh for their own, for their children and grandchildren.

Explaining how Bangladesh can do it, Parkash said Bangladesh can do it by training them with good teachers.

“And you can do it by having people like you have at Western Marine Shipyard Limited Ltd who have really brought these people from remote areas and giving them an opportunity so that they can become people to stand up on their own feet gaining skills,” he said.

Parkash, who joined the ADB in 2002, said the quality of wielding and the quality of technical things that he saw display that they are not less than anybody.

The other advantage of Bangladesh, he said, is that the cost will be much less compared to the international one which means Bangladesh can easily capture the international market.

“Why should I go and buy expensive technology from the West when I can produce the technology taking advantage of using my own people? I can export this technology to the West and other countries,” Parkash said sharing what Bangladesh can do.

Talking about the importance of skill development in Bangladesh, he said the ADB is really the pioneer of skill development, and Bangladesh needs technical and vocational education much more now.

Parkash said shipbuilding is a unique industry and it is really teaching people how to do wielding maintaining the international standard and the certification is specially done by an international certification agency.

“So, these wielders not only can build ships here for us, they can also build ships for outsiders. They’re now building ships for Norway, a developed country. What will be a more proud moment for Bangladesh that ships built in Bangladesh to be exported to Norway, and Norway will use that,” he said.

Parkash said Bangladesh started building ships at the right moment and it is good to see Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has also been giving a lot of importance to inland waterways and coastal shipping with other countries.

He laid emphasis on taking advantage of Bangladesh’s location since it is at a place where Asean countries are on the East, India is on Bangladesh’s West and in South Bangladesh has got China.

Managing Director of Western Marine Shipyard Ltd M Sakhawat Hossain said Bangladesh will continue to make its presence stronger in the international shipbuilding market through enhancing its productivity and developing skills.

He said the investment in skill development generated more jobs and it is boosting the image of Bangladesh and adding values in a big way.

“We can have stronger presence in global market as we’re saying -- shirt to ship,” he told UNB sharing their success stories and how they took the Bangladesh flag to the global market with ‘Made in Bangladesh’ tag.

Executive Project Director of Skills for Employment Investment Programme (SEIP) Jalal Ahmed said they are working on SEIP-2 which will begin from 2021 as the project is helping the country boost national productivity.

He said the main components of SEIP are to scale up training in six priority sectors -- garments and textile, leather and footwear, construction, light engineering, IT and shipbuilding.

Chief Coordinator, training programme of Association of Export Oriented Shipbuilding Industries of Bangladesh (AEOSIB) with SEIP, Captain Mohammed Habibur Rahman said a total of 7328 people were enrolled of them 5625 have already been assessed.

“So far, our success rate is 88.53 percent,” he said shrining the success stories in the areas of wielding and fabrication, electrical and navigation, machine tools operation, machinery installation, painting and piping.


https://www.dhakatribune.com/business/2018/11/27/shipbuilding-a-hidden-gem-in-bangladesh-adb

 

[Destranator]

Yes, you are correct if BD is a rich country, and do not worry about my MATHA. For a poor country and without that much of emergency a cheap and functional transportation system is what should be adopted. Now, tell me about Aricha. Is it not Ferry that we use to cross the mighty Padma there? So, am I an Ahammak for pointing out this? Do everything you want, but after another 20 years when the economic muscle is stronger.

However, I have no objection if the Deshi engineers/engineering companies can do the projects. In that case, I will ask you to build a hundred more long bridges as well as a 400 km long sea-bridge from Payra to Chittagong and then to Teknaf connecting all the islands in between, no complaint. But, what BD is doing now is equal to eating GHEE-Bhat, and the GHEE is produced in the foreign countries.

Brother do you really believe that ferries are sufficient for mass transportation of goods and commuters to and from the Southern part of the country serving tens of millions of people?

 

[bluesky]

Brother do you really believe that ferries are sufficient for mass transportation of goods and commuters to and from the Southern part of the country serving tens of millions of people?

You are right to say ferries are not sufficient for transportation and/but BD needs to build many bridges. However, I am in favor of ferries until the local engineers, and design consulting and construction companies are able to build these by themselves, albeit, with foreign collaboration.

Usually, a country gets help from foreign countries with high technology to build the first one. The govt attaches reliable private bridge construction companies to the bridgeworks undertaken by the foreign companies. Under the contract, the foreign group would discuss every technical detail of the project and transfer all the design analytical documents to the locals.

This is how technology and know-how are gradually transferred to local private companies. The govt would then award a smaller project to the local group of companies who would do the job with the assistance from the foreign expert companies. Approximately with this approach, a country can carry out many development projects by its own manpower.

However, BD is not following this approach. It is throwing away the entire contract to the foreigners without any measure for the local to learn. Now, about ferries and bridges. The country needs to replace tens of ferries including in the Aricha-Goalondo (Paturia) and Aricha-Nogorbari routes. But, even after the completion of two large bridges over Jamuna and Padma, the GoB approach will be the same. It will ask the foreigners to do these Aricha projects, as well, by borrowing billions of dollars.

I was just telling against this kind of approach, but I have been reprimanded as the most stupid of all the people for saying so. Anyway, I find PDF is a gossip forum and I do not expect any constructive discussion here although the participants, except a few like me, are highly educated.

 

[Mage]

Doing business should be easier
Aslam Mia

• Published at 11:03 pm November 28th, 2018

Take notes Bigstock

What is holding us back?

Since 2003, the “Doing Business Report” has been one of the flagship publications of the World Bank Group, which measures the regulations that enhance business activity and those that constrain it, particularly targeted at the private sector. The report covers 190 economies and allows the making of comparisons between countries/regions.

The latest showed that New Zealand came out on top among the economies, and Bangladesh ranked 176 out of 190 economies, one place ahead of last year’s ranking, and the lowest among South Asian countries.

Methodologically, the “Doing Business” score consists of 11 different factors. Each of the factors has several dimensions when estimating scores for a country. For example, starting a business includes a number of procedures, time taken to start a business, cost, and minimum capital. Similarly, for other factors, they also have various sub-dimensions -- the minimum number of sub-dimensions is three, and the highest is eight.

Referring to the 2019 report, it is desirable to decode the constraints that push Bangladesh below war-torn Afghanistan and other South Asian countries. To understand the paradox and suggest plausible policy reforms, a few of the sub-dimensions were chosen to compare with India and Afghanistan, which were ranked 77 and 167 respectively.

Afghanistan has made significant reforms in five factors -- starting a business, getting credit, protecting minority investors, paying taxes, and resolving insolvency. India has also made remarkable reform in six factors -- starting a business, dealing with construction permits, getting electricity, getting credit, paying taxes, and trading across borders.

Looking at these two countries also revealed that reform has not taken place uniformly. And some economies may focus on particular factors. Unfortunately, the report showed that Bangladesh has not undertaken any reform in any of the factors and/or its sub-factors.

While the government may have drafted some reform plans, it has not been enough to effectively improve the overall situation.

According to the report, starting a business in Bangladesh requires nine procedures and 19.5 days to complete, and aggregately costs 21.2% of income per capita. In India, the requirement is 10 procedures within 16.5 days with a cost of 14.4% of income per capita. This revealed that although the number of procedures is greater in India, on average it takes less time and less money to start a business -- each of the procedures in Bangladesh is lengthier and costlier than India.

A comparison with Afghanistan: It takes 4.5 procedures and 8.5 days to start a business costing only 6.4% of income per capita. Meaning, starting a business in war-torn Afghanistan is the cheaper compared to India and Bangladesh.

For the second factor, which deals with construction permits, it takes 17.9 procedures and 94.8 days to complete in India, while Afghanistan has only 13 procedures that need 199 days to complete. In contrast, construction permits require 15.8 procedures and 273.5 days in Bangladesh, almost three-times that of India.

Another distinguishable difference is also observed in enforcing contracts. While it takes almost a similar number of days both for India (1,445) and Bangladesh (1,442), the cost is more than double in Bangladesh (66.8% of claim value) than India (31.0% of claim value).

Similarly, the quality of judicial processes index also ranked India higher (10.5 out of 18) than Bangladesh (7.5 out of 18).

Without any doubt, it is important to improve in all factors to have a better Doing Business rank and its overall impact in the economy. Specific policy reforms targeting each of the factors are necessary. As a reference, Bangladesh could look and gain insights from some countries that have excelled in such factors.

While keeping an eye on the recent developments in Bangladesh, it will be interesting to see how well the government responds to the crisis showcased in the report, and performs next year.

Aslam Mia is a Senior Lecturer at the School of Management, University of Science Malaysia.


https://www.dhakatribune.com/opinion/op-ed/2018/11/28/doing-business-should-be-easier

 

[Black_cats]

What is Bangladesh’s take on China’s BRI?
Ranjan Basu, Delhi

• Published at 12:41 pm November 29th, 2018

National flags of Bangladesh and China Bigstock

Analysts think Bangladesh will maintain a balance in the implementation of the initiative

China is moving to implement a mega project titled the “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) at a cost of around $1 trillion.

Dubbed as the Silk Road of the 21st century, the ambitious project involves the construction of roads and shipping lanes though countries in Europe, Asia and Africa.

South Asian countries need to play a great role in the implementation of the project, but India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal have yet to decide on their contributions.

Analysts think Bangladesh will try to maintain a balance in the implementation of BRI.

In the third week of November, the “Nepal-China Friendship Forum” organized an international seminar in Kathmandu in which participants discussed South Asia’s gains and losses from BRI.

Bangladesh representatives who attended the seminar hinted at Dhaka’s take on the initiative.

India is opposing the project, as one of its crucial routes will go through Pakistan-governed Kashmir that India claims as its own land. It is not possible for India to accept BRI in terms of this sovereignty issue.

However, India has no issue regarding the implementation of the proposed Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) corridor at its eastern border.

“Bangladesh prefers to maintain strategic balance with India and China. The government has long been maintaining a balance with these two giant powers. I believe it will do the same in BRI as well,” said Dhaka University’s economic department Prof Selim Raihan, who attended the seminar.

The countries to be engaged with BRI are also concerned over financial issues.

“Initially other countries thought China would offer them a free lunch, which means Beijing would provide all expenses and [the other countries] would get solid infrastructure and a commercial corridor. But now they have realized that China is not doing it for free; it will give them loans on easy terms,” said Prof Prabir Dey of Delhi-based think tank Research and Information System for Developing Countries.

Prof Dey, who has been working on connectivity between South Asia and China and ASEAN countries, was one of the panelists in the seminar.

During his Bangladesh visit in 2016, Chinese President Xi Jinping wrote a cheque for $30 billion. However, it became gradually clear that it was not a grant, but rather a loan.

Prof Raihan said: “Bangladeshis have sensitivity for India, not for China. But the Sheikh Hasina-led government has not been more inclined to either of the powers.”

For example, he said in the construction of Payra port both Indian and Chinese companies are working together under an umbrella project, which one cannot think of elsewhere.

The Dhaka University professor also cited some more examples.

“Bangladesh purchased submarines for the navy from China and signed defence deals with India. China was not given allocation for the deep sea port, but a Chinese consortium was awarded 25% share of the Dhaka Stock Exchange.

“So I believe Bangladesh will find a midway path regarding BRI,” Prof Raihansaid.

Asian Tiger Capital’s Group Chairman Ifty Islam also echoed Prof Raihan.

“China is going to emerge as the world’s greatest economy by 2050. India might also secure a top position. So, Bangladesh cannot avoid any of its neighbours,” he said.