Awami govt set to destroy backbone of Bangladesh economy
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IMF revises GDP growth projection down to 5.0pc
Lists ADP implementation, investment as major challenges
FE Report
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Bangladesh's GDP (gross domestic product) growth at 5.0 per cent for the current fiscal year against the government's anticipated rate of 6.0 per cent.
"The IMF's outlook in the fiscal year (FY) 10 is broadly unchanged. The real GDP growth is expected to moderate slightly to 5.0 per cent, mainly due to sluggish exports," David Cowen, the IMF mission chief, told a press briefing Monday after concluding his team's week-long visit to Bangladesh.
IMF resident representative in Bangladesh Etari Kvintradze was also present at the press briefing held at Bangladesh Bank (BB) conference room.
The country's GDP growth might rise to around 6.0 per cent in FY 11 with more supportive external conditions anticipating, he said.
When his attention was drawn to the government's projection of 6.0 per cent GDP growth, Mr David said: "The government has its own growth projection mechanism We have projected the growth rate taking all the prevailing conditions into consideration."
The multilateral lender also projected the rate of Bangladesh's annual average inflation at 8.0 per cent for the FY 10 due largely to higher food and fuel prices.
He also suggested that the Bangladesh Bank should continue to monitor in order to help check the inflation.
The IMF mission also pinpointed strong ADP (annual development programme) implementation and private investment as major challenges for Bangladesh.
On the other hand, the water and power supply disruptions are the downside risks that have the potential impact on manufacturing and agriculture, said Mr David.
He also observed that the current account should continue to remain surplus both this year and next, although the pace of growth in foreign reserves may slow in FY'I I on expected moderate increases in remittances.
On the upcoming budget, the IMF mission head said the FY'I 0 outturn is expected to be moderately expansionary, but ADP implementation is expected to be less than budgeted.
In this context, the FYI I budget should aim at raising tax revenues and increase ADP implementation to boost the economy 's medium-term growth potential and accelerate poverty reduction, he suggested.
"Ongoing efforts to broaden the income tax base could deliver sizable revenue gains. However, prospects for broader revenue growth hinge on other decisive actions to strengthen tax policy and administration, notably in line with the new VAT law expected to be introduced in FY'I 1," he said.
He also observed that the government's expenditures would need to be prioritised to ensure the necessary resources to resolve infrastructure bottlenecks.
In this vein, direct and implicit subsidies should be better targeted to vulnerable groups to ensure adequate fiscal space in other areas and allow fuller cost recovery by service providers, especially in the power and energy sectors, Mr. David said.
He also suggested stronger efforts for streamlining project approvals and implementation capacity and developing an effective framework for public-private partnerships in infrastructure development.
In support of economic activity, monetary conditions remain relatively lax, but recent signs point to some tightening, he said, adding banks' excess liquidity has been reduced substantially as a result of a pickup in lending.
IMF revises GDP growth projection down to 5.0pc
Lists ADP implementation, investment as major challenges
FE Report
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Bangladesh's GDP (gross domestic product) growth at 5.0 per cent for the current fiscal year against the government's anticipated rate of 6.0 per cent.
"The IMF's outlook in the fiscal year (FY) 10 is broadly unchanged. The real GDP growth is expected to moderate slightly to 5.0 per cent, mainly due to sluggish exports," David Cowen, the IMF mission chief, told a press briefing Monday after concluding his team's week-long visit to Bangladesh.
IMF resident representative in Bangladesh Etari Kvintradze was also present at the press briefing held at Bangladesh Bank (BB) conference room.
The country's GDP growth might rise to around 6.0 per cent in FY 11 with more supportive external conditions anticipating, he said.
When his attention was drawn to the government's projection of 6.0 per cent GDP growth, Mr David said: "The government has its own growth projection mechanism We have projected the growth rate taking all the prevailing conditions into consideration."
The multilateral lender also projected the rate of Bangladesh's annual average inflation at 8.0 per cent for the FY 10 due largely to higher food and fuel prices.
He also suggested that the Bangladesh Bank should continue to monitor in order to help check the inflation.
The IMF mission also pinpointed strong ADP (annual development programme) implementation and private investment as major challenges for Bangladesh.
On the other hand, the water and power supply disruptions are the downside risks that have the potential impact on manufacturing and agriculture, said Mr David.
He also observed that the current account should continue to remain surplus both this year and next, although the pace of growth in foreign reserves may slow in FY'I I on expected moderate increases in remittances.
On the upcoming budget, the IMF mission head said the FY'I 0 outturn is expected to be moderately expansionary, but ADP implementation is expected to be less than budgeted.
In this context, the FYI I budget should aim at raising tax revenues and increase ADP implementation to boost the economy 's medium-term growth potential and accelerate poverty reduction, he suggested.
"Ongoing efforts to broaden the income tax base could deliver sizable revenue gains. However, prospects for broader revenue growth hinge on other decisive actions to strengthen tax policy and administration, notably in line with the new VAT law expected to be introduced in FY'I 1," he said.
He also observed that the government's expenditures would need to be prioritised to ensure the necessary resources to resolve infrastructure bottlenecks.
In this vein, direct and implicit subsidies should be better targeted to vulnerable groups to ensure adequate fiscal space in other areas and allow fuller cost recovery by service providers, especially in the power and energy sectors, Mr. David said.
He also suggested stronger efforts for streamlining project approvals and implementation capacity and developing an effective framework for public-private partnerships in infrastructure development.
In support of economic activity, monetary conditions remain relatively lax, but recent signs point to some tightening, he said, adding banks' excess liquidity has been reduced substantially as a result of a pickup in lending.
IMF revises GDP growth projection down to 5.0pc
ADB predicts a dismal FY 2010
Tue, Apr 13th, 2010 9:54 pm
Dhaka, April 13 (bdnews24.com) Bangladesh is faring through a tough year, according to the ADB.
If what the Asian Development Bank predicts is true, then this 2010 fiscal, ending in June, will perhaps be one of the most difficult in recent history.
The annual Asian Development Outlook 2010 predicts the lowest GDP growth for Bangladesh in the last five years, with a sharply dipping remittance growth and a moderately high inflation.
The silver lining is, however, that the next fiscal (2011), when the economy is expected to bounce back, is less than three months away.
While some indicators are set to perform better in 2011, or at best by the second half of the 2010 fiscal, riding on the back of global recovery from the recession, Bangladesh's economy is set to fare through some hard times.
The multilateral lending agency projected the country's growth at 5.5 percent in FY 2010 compared to 5.9 in 2009 with remittance growth set to fall to 16.5 percent and even further to 12.5 percent the next year.
The GDP growth projection, as with experts and other lending agencies, has been steady at 5.5 percent except that of the government, which insists on a 6 percent growth.
However, given the decelerating rate of workers going abroad reflected by a negative remittance growth, tough export competition and a high inflation, the only saving grace appears to be the agriculture sector with a still impressive growth of 4.1 percent declining from 4.6 percent in 2009.
The ADB's annual publication predicts a decline in the two other sectors besides agricultureindustry to 5.6 percent and services to 5.9 percent.
Inflation is forecast to feature highly at 7.5 percent with food inflation being the main trigger and coupled with the low growth, 2010 fiscal is set to be dismal for a large section of the people.
However, the following year's bounce-back is projected to be rather spectacular with "growth expected to rise to 6.3 percent, underpinned by the global recover and strengthened business confidence and investment" with inflation at 7.8 percent in 2011.
Although remittance growth is projected to fall further, the domestic sectors are set to pick up and more than make up that loss.
Exports are expected to "return to a positive growth path on recovering global momentum" in the second half of 2010.
Investment in infrastructure along with availability of necessary utility services including gas, water and power are said to be one of the major drawbacks for the diversifying the country's RMG-dependent exports.
The outlook states, "Recent experience underscores the urgency of diversifying into other promising industries such as ceramics, pharmaceuticals, food processing, leather products, and spare parts for machinery and shipbuilding."
ADB predicts a dismal FY 2010 | Bangladesh | bdnews24.com
Tue, Apr 13th, 2010 9:54 pm
Dhaka, April 13 (bdnews24.com) Bangladesh is faring through a tough year, according to the ADB.
If what the Asian Development Bank predicts is true, then this 2010 fiscal, ending in June, will perhaps be one of the most difficult in recent history.
The annual Asian Development Outlook 2010 predicts the lowest GDP growth for Bangladesh in the last five years, with a sharply dipping remittance growth and a moderately high inflation.
The silver lining is, however, that the next fiscal (2011), when the economy is expected to bounce back, is less than three months away.
While some indicators are set to perform better in 2011, or at best by the second half of the 2010 fiscal, riding on the back of global recovery from the recession, Bangladesh's economy is set to fare through some hard times.
The multilateral lending agency projected the country's growth at 5.5 percent in FY 2010 compared to 5.9 in 2009 with remittance growth set to fall to 16.5 percent and even further to 12.5 percent the next year.
The GDP growth projection, as with experts and other lending agencies, has been steady at 5.5 percent except that of the government, which insists on a 6 percent growth.
However, given the decelerating rate of workers going abroad reflected by a negative remittance growth, tough export competition and a high inflation, the only saving grace appears to be the agriculture sector with a still impressive growth of 4.1 percent declining from 4.6 percent in 2009.
The ADB's annual publication predicts a decline in the two other sectors besides agricultureindustry to 5.6 percent and services to 5.9 percent.
Inflation is forecast to feature highly at 7.5 percent with food inflation being the main trigger and coupled with the low growth, 2010 fiscal is set to be dismal for a large section of the people.
However, the following year's bounce-back is projected to be rather spectacular with "growth expected to rise to 6.3 percent, underpinned by the global recover and strengthened business confidence and investment" with inflation at 7.8 percent in 2011.
Although remittance growth is projected to fall further, the domestic sectors are set to pick up and more than make up that loss.
Exports are expected to "return to a positive growth path on recovering global momentum" in the second half of 2010.
Investment in infrastructure along with availability of necessary utility services including gas, water and power are said to be one of the major drawbacks for the diversifying the country's RMG-dependent exports.
The outlook states, "Recent experience underscores the urgency of diversifying into other promising industries such as ceramics, pharmaceuticals, food processing, leather products, and spare parts for machinery and shipbuilding."
ADB predicts a dismal FY 2010 | Bangladesh | bdnews24.com
Bangladesh Inflation Rises strikes Prices Of Food Items
Tuesday, April 20th, 2010
Bangladeshs consumers price index (CPI) inflation rose to 9.06 percent in February 2010, up from 8.99 percent of the previous month,
The rate of inflation went up by 0.07 percentage point in February, over that of the previous month, mainly because of the increase in prices of food items.
The inflationary pressures on economy has slightly gone up during the period due mainly to the increase in prices of food items in the local market as well as in the global markets, a senior official of the Bangladesh Bank (BB), the countrys central bank, told gurumia in Dhaka.
The official also said the existing upward trend of inflation might continue in the third quarters but it particularly in food inflationary pressure would decline in the fourth quarters of the current fiscal year due to arrival of new Boro rice crop along with the governments market intervention.
Food price inflation rose to 10.93 percent in February from 10.56 percent in January this year on the point-to-point basis due mainly to raise the prices of essential items including rice and sugar during the period.
Despite good domestic output of the Aman rice crop, a recent surge in domestic prices of essential commodities including rice, sugar, edible oil, pulses, onion, garlic and vegetables is the reason for higher inflation during the period under review, the central bank officials said.
The inflation rate moved up to 5.95 percent in February from 5.67 percent of the previous month on the annual average basis, according to the state-run Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) data, released on Monday.
The central bank in its latest monetary policy projected a further rise in the countrys CPI inflation on a point-to-point basis in the coming months. However, it expressed hope that the 12-month average CPI would be within a 6.5 percent range by the end of the fiscal year 2009-10, as earlier projected by the BB
consumers’ price index (CPI) | gurumia.com
Source: BB
Tuesday, April 20th, 2010
Bangladeshs consumers price index (CPI) inflation rose to 9.06 percent in February 2010, up from 8.99 percent of the previous month,
The rate of inflation went up by 0.07 percentage point in February, over that of the previous month, mainly because of the increase in prices of food items.
The inflationary pressures on economy has slightly gone up during the period due mainly to the increase in prices of food items in the local market as well as in the global markets, a senior official of the Bangladesh Bank (BB), the countrys central bank, told gurumia in Dhaka.
The official also said the existing upward trend of inflation might continue in the third quarters but it particularly in food inflationary pressure would decline in the fourth quarters of the current fiscal year due to arrival of new Boro rice crop along with the governments market intervention.
Food price inflation rose to 10.93 percent in February from 10.56 percent in January this year on the point-to-point basis due mainly to raise the prices of essential items including rice and sugar during the period.
Despite good domestic output of the Aman rice crop, a recent surge in domestic prices of essential commodities including rice, sugar, edible oil, pulses, onion, garlic and vegetables is the reason for higher inflation during the period under review, the central bank officials said.
The inflation rate moved up to 5.95 percent in February from 5.67 percent of the previous month on the annual average basis, according to the state-run Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) data, released on Monday.
The central bank in its latest monetary policy projected a further rise in the countrys CPI inflation on a point-to-point basis in the coming months. However, it expressed hope that the 12-month average CPI would be within a 6.5 percent range by the end of the fiscal year 2009-10, as earlier projected by the BB
consumers’ price index (CPI) | gurumia.com
Source: BB
Al-zakir
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Oh GOD ! Does that mean BD is finished ?
No but we can not let our job market die in Middle east. We have about 30 lacs Bangladeshi work in Saudi itself and poor country like BD got no chance to loose over sea job market.
thebrownguy
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post deleted ....
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Siddiqui A
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Oh God this dumb indian troll about jobs in india....please mr dark brown guy near to black you and your country should focus on the 40% of the global poor living in slums of bharat and also the worse then ethiopia malnutrition rates that are a reality there....then maybe you can talk to others about jobs in bharat....man im really beginning to believe ignorance is bliss....these indians live in Alice's wonderland...how sad and pathetic...
thebrownguy
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Lol, relax Mr. False flag!! Looks like you managed to cross 2 borders. NOw think what i meant by that!!
TopCat
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Well Mr. Al-Zakir,
How this news is the fault of AL?
Too many unskilled labor and unhealthy indeed. And they were sent in the BNP regime. If they were trained enough and had good medical test before sending then we did not have to come to this point.
AL governemtn is eshtablishing vocational training center and language literacy program all over the country so that in 5 years from now you dont face this problem. But make sure in 2014 you dont go and vote for BNP again, then all the good works of AL will go in vein.
How this news is the fault of AL?
Too many unskilled labor and unhealthy indeed. And they were sent in the BNP regime. If they were trained enough and had good medical test before sending then we did not have to come to this point.
AL governemtn is eshtablishing vocational training center and language literacy program all over the country so that in 5 years from now you dont face this problem. But make sure in 2014 you dont go and vote for BNP again, then all the good works of AL will go in vein.
TopCat
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Lol, relax Mr. False flag!! Looks like you managed to cross 2 borders. NOw think what i meant by that!!
And how many borders you manage to cross??? seems like you got a flag of a country and certainly its not Israel your beloved.
thebrownguy
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Bro, my earlier post was just in humour. But i do understand how it was offensive, so i deleted it. Just relax, ok ! And the flag is supposed to last just a month more!! M going home bro!!
Siddiqui A
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Bro, my earlier post was just in humour. But i do understand how it was offensive, so i deleted it. Just relax, ok ! And the flag is supposed to last just a month more!! M going home bro!!
yea bro you really should go home and take some food with you
....if you know what aaaiiiii mean by that First quarter overseas job growth slowest in 4 years
Drastic fall in recruitments by S Arabia, Malaysia
Mashiur Rahaman
Overseas employment in the first quarter grew to its slowest pace in four years, as new work opportunities almost dried up in Saudi Arabia and Malaysia, officials said Thursday.
The government said 99,140 Bangladeshis found jobs in the January-March first quarter, declining by 27.9 per cent than the same period last year, 56 per cent than 2008 and 22 per cent than 2007.
Officials of the Bureau of Manpower and Employment Training (BMET), which keeps the data of daily overseas employment, attributed the slide to massive fall in recruitment by the Persian Gulf countries, notably Saudi Arabia, and South East Asia.
"In the first three months, Saudi Arabia employed only 602 workers. In the past, the Muslim kingdom used to employ this number of workers in a day or two," said an official.
For some strange reasons, the Saudi authorities have been ignoring Bangladeshi workers since 2008, said a top recruiting agent, who said Riyadh now favours workers from Nepal and the Philippines.
In oil-rich Kuwait where the prime minister made an official visit in February, only 11 workers found jobs in the first three months while gas-rich Qatar employed less than 1000 labourers.
Job opportunities in the South East Asia dried up sharply despite the economies of regional powerhouses, Singapore and Malaysia, have come back strongly in the first quarter, snapping a year-long recession.
BMET data showed Malaysia, the third biggest employer of Bangladeshi workers after Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), recruited only 44 workers between January and March.
Kuala Lumpur has imposed a total freeze on recruitment from Bangladesh, despite many assurances from its cabinet ministers. Calls from Dhaka to review the freeze have so far fallen on deaf ears.
"We have heard that Malaysian authorities have planned to recruit some 100,000 from Nepal. They are not interested in Bangladeshi workers despite the resurgence of their economy in recent months," said the recruiting agent.
The UAE remained the main destination of Bangladeshi workers in 2010 despite its companies were hit hard by the global economic recession - the worst since the Second World War
The grouping of seven Emirates hired more than 56,275 workers from Dhaka, making up nearly 60 per cent of total Bangladesh overseas jobs in the first three months.
Last year the UAE hired 258,348 labourers, accounting for 46 per cent of total Bangladeshi manpower export.
War-torn Iraq provided some hopes, employing 1441 workers while Singapore, Libya, Bahrain and the Indian island of Mauritius maintained a static pace in their recruitment.
First quarter overseas job growth slowest in 4 years
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