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America's deterrent is shrinking in the region.
By PAUL S. GIARRA and MICHAEL J. GREEN From today's Wall Street Journal Asia.
Officials from Japan and the United States meet tomorrow in Tokyo to discuss the future of the alliance under the Security Consultative Committee. The talks come at a crucial time, when the military balance of power in Asia is in flux. China's growing military capabilities and North Korea's missile and nuclear provocations should top the list of discussion topics at the SCC.
China is challenging access to the global commons through a broad, consciously directed array of military developments. China's military has moved beyond its focus on Taiwan and now possesses antisatellite weapons, advanced land attack ballistic missiles, new classes of submarines and surface ships and the emerging ballistic missile capability to hit ships at sea at least 1,000 miles from China's coasts.
These developments are designed to re-order the balance of power in China's favor by diminishing American strategic mobility and free access to Pacific waters, Pacific airspace, and the "high terrain" of space and cyberspace. A good example of this is China's development of land-mobile antiship ballistic missiles. This antiaccess capability is unprecedented anywhere in the world and has numerous implications for the U.S. Navy, probably best summarized as losing air and sea dominance -- and perhaps control -- in the Asian-Pacific region. This puts at risk American influence, regional security and alliance interdependence.
Given these developments, U.S. officials will have to lay out constructive thinking in Tokyo about how to add more capability in the U.S.-Japan alliance. The U.S. should have serious talks with its allies about gaps in strategic defenses caused by the Chinese military's build-up. One place to start might be a dialogue about whether making the strategic F-22 stealth fighter available to allies makes sense for both allied and American security. For example, the U.S. has been saying "no" to Japan's request for the F-22 stealth fighter without first sitting down with its key ally in the Pacific and jointly figuring out whether the fighter makes sense for U.S. and allied security in light of the PLA Air Force's rapid expansion of advanced fighters.
In light of the North Korean threat, the U.S. must also think seriously about allied perspectives on the ongoing U.S. nuclear posture review (due in December), the strategy and technologies of missile defense, and the president's Prague Speech on disarmament. North Korea has declared its intention to be a full nuclear weapons state by 2012 and is determined to put nuclear weapons on missiles, the first of which will range South Korea and Japan. Cutting U.S. missile defense spending now is out of synch with the realities of Asia, which are driven by the North Korean threat and the Chinese emphasis on offensive ballistic missiles.
The time has come for serious discussions with Japan and South Korea about how extended deterrence and nuclear deterrence work under these new circumstances. Japanese interlocutors have been requesting such a bilateral dialogue for years.
The capabilities of U.S. alliances and defense relationships across Asia are interconnected, both in terms of U.S. credibility and the ability to deter and dissuade. Given the North Korean sprint for deliverable nuclear weapons, the administration should review the implications of its current plan to abandon the Combined Forces Command with South Korea by 2012, particularly since 10 million South Korean citizens have signed petitions saying "hold on." A U.S. decision on Taiwan's request for F-16 C/D fighters to counter China's rapidly expanding fighter fleet is also long overdue.
Next year, the United States and Japan will celebrate the 50th anniversary of the 1960 mutual security treaty. The agenda put in place this weekend in Tokyo will set the stage for the Alliance Declaration that President Barack Obama and a future Japanese prime minister will promulgate. Managing the high profile realignment at the U.S. Marine base in Okinawa will be important, as will new areas of cooperation to respond to transnational challenges such as pandemics and climate change.
But at its core alliance solidarity is about mutual protection. The threat environment the U.S. faces with its allies in Northeast Asia is becoming increasingly dangerous. Bilateral consultations of character, substance and achievement are major components of deterrence. The high level defense discussions in Tokyo are the "best first" opportunity for the Obama administration to demonstrate its readiness to continue an American tradition of working with allies to reinforce stability in the Asia Pacific region.
Asia's Military Balance at a Tipping Point - WSJ.com
By PAUL S. GIARRA and MICHAEL J. GREEN From today's Wall Street Journal Asia.
Officials from Japan and the United States meet tomorrow in Tokyo to discuss the future of the alliance under the Security Consultative Committee. The talks come at a crucial time, when the military balance of power in Asia is in flux. China's growing military capabilities and North Korea's missile and nuclear provocations should top the list of discussion topics at the SCC.
China is challenging access to the global commons through a broad, consciously directed array of military developments. China's military has moved beyond its focus on Taiwan and now possesses antisatellite weapons, advanced land attack ballistic missiles, new classes of submarines and surface ships and the emerging ballistic missile capability to hit ships at sea at least 1,000 miles from China's coasts.
These developments are designed to re-order the balance of power in China's favor by diminishing American strategic mobility and free access to Pacific waters, Pacific airspace, and the "high terrain" of space and cyberspace. A good example of this is China's development of land-mobile antiship ballistic missiles. This antiaccess capability is unprecedented anywhere in the world and has numerous implications for the U.S. Navy, probably best summarized as losing air and sea dominance -- and perhaps control -- in the Asian-Pacific region. This puts at risk American influence, regional security and alliance interdependence.
Given these developments, U.S. officials will have to lay out constructive thinking in Tokyo about how to add more capability in the U.S.-Japan alliance. The U.S. should have serious talks with its allies about gaps in strategic defenses caused by the Chinese military's build-up. One place to start might be a dialogue about whether making the strategic F-22 stealth fighter available to allies makes sense for both allied and American security. For example, the U.S. has been saying "no" to Japan's request for the F-22 stealth fighter without first sitting down with its key ally in the Pacific and jointly figuring out whether the fighter makes sense for U.S. and allied security in light of the PLA Air Force's rapid expansion of advanced fighters.
In light of the North Korean threat, the U.S. must also think seriously about allied perspectives on the ongoing U.S. nuclear posture review (due in December), the strategy and technologies of missile defense, and the president's Prague Speech on disarmament. North Korea has declared its intention to be a full nuclear weapons state by 2012 and is determined to put nuclear weapons on missiles, the first of which will range South Korea and Japan. Cutting U.S. missile defense spending now is out of synch with the realities of Asia, which are driven by the North Korean threat and the Chinese emphasis on offensive ballistic missiles.
The time has come for serious discussions with Japan and South Korea about how extended deterrence and nuclear deterrence work under these new circumstances. Japanese interlocutors have been requesting such a bilateral dialogue for years.
The capabilities of U.S. alliances and defense relationships across Asia are interconnected, both in terms of U.S. credibility and the ability to deter and dissuade. Given the North Korean sprint for deliverable nuclear weapons, the administration should review the implications of its current plan to abandon the Combined Forces Command with South Korea by 2012, particularly since 10 million South Korean citizens have signed petitions saying "hold on." A U.S. decision on Taiwan's request for F-16 C/D fighters to counter China's rapidly expanding fighter fleet is also long overdue.
Next year, the United States and Japan will celebrate the 50th anniversary of the 1960 mutual security treaty. The agenda put in place this weekend in Tokyo will set the stage for the Alliance Declaration that President Barack Obama and a future Japanese prime minister will promulgate. Managing the high profile realignment at the U.S. Marine base in Okinawa will be important, as will new areas of cooperation to respond to transnational challenges such as pandemics and climate change.
But at its core alliance solidarity is about mutual protection. The threat environment the U.S. faces with its allies in Northeast Asia is becoming increasingly dangerous. Bilateral consultations of character, substance and achievement are major components of deterrence. The high level defense discussions in Tokyo are the "best first" opportunity for the Obama administration to demonstrate its readiness to continue an American tradition of working with allies to reinforce stability in the Asia Pacific region.
Asia's Military Balance at a Tipping Point - WSJ.com
