ASEAN Affairs Forum
- Thread starter ahfatzia
- Start date
sicsheep
FULL MEMBER
- Joined
- Aug 23, 2012
- Messages
- 881
- Reaction score
- 0
- Country
- Location
our average for male is 174.7 cm, female 158.6 cm, making us the highest Asian country?
Human height - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Reashot Xigwin
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Oct 20, 2012
- Messages
- 5,747
- Reaction score
- 0
Martian2
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Dec 15, 2009
- Messages
- 5,809
- Reaction score
- -37
NiceGuy
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Jun 3, 2011
- Messages
- 5,569
- Reaction score
- -2
- Country
- Location
Native ASEAN people learned a profound lesson from letting those Chinese-Camb like Pol Pot, Chinse-VNese like Ieng sary in power. When war break out wt Chinese, those ungrateful Chinese will immediately forget who grew them up and help China to kill their savior
Cossack25A1
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2014
- Messages
- 2,566
- Reaction score
- 2
- Country
- Location
ASEAN’s Post-2015 Vision: Inclusive And Non-Elitist? – Analysis
January 15, 2015 RSIS
2015 is the marker year for the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) to be realised. Whilst the focus will invariably be on the AEC, the formulation of a post-2015 ASEAN vision requires equal care and attention. It should be more inclusive and grass-roots driven.
By Dylan Loh Ming Hui and Don Rodney Ong Junio*
One of the cornerstones of the ASEAN Community building project is its “people-centred” approach to regional integration as opposed to the elite-driven and state-centric approach that ASEAN has been generally associated with.
As ASEAN enters 2015 – a watershed year with the realisation of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) – it is timely to examine how successful has ASEAN become in ensuring that voices from below are included in its various efforts to institutionalise a sense of regional community in Southeast Asia, especially in the context of formulating a post-2015 ASEAN vision.
The ASEAN Way as the Elite Way?
Well-established norms such as the ASEAN Way have limited the space for non-state actors to engage ASEAN. This is true for regional cross-cutting issues such as migration, human rights, and environmental protection that are being championed by civil society groups. However, this does not mean that there are no direct channels of engagement between civil society and ASEAN.
For example, one of the well-established regional fora held in parallel with the ASEAN Summit is the ASEAN Civil Society Conference / ASEAN Peoples’ Forum which was initiated in 2005 and has been held every year since then except in 2008. The forum brings together Non-Government Organisations (NGOs) across the region to discuss various issues affecting Southeast Asia.
The outcome of the forum is an official statement that is presented to an “interface meeting” where government representatives from ASEAN member-countries are present. Whether recommendations submitted by civil society groups are taken up by ASEAN is a different issue. There are also various issues associated with the ASEAN Civil Society Conference such as alleged intimidation and restrictions imposed by host governments during these meetings.
This brings into question the commitment of ASEAN in engaging civil society groups and its willingness to accept views coming from other stakeholders. Nonetheless, for some civil society groups, having this direct channel of engagement to ASEAN government officials, albeit weak, is counted as a small victory.
Even in the lead up to the AEC 2015, there were mutters of confusion from businesses, both small and large, on the impact and benefits that the AEC would bring. While governments in ASEAN are certain of the economic benefits arising from the AEC, the ‘lay stakeholders’ – general ASEAN citizens and businesses – are left to wonder what the fuss is all about.
ASEAN is 48 years old this year. However, the general awareness of ASEAN amongst the populace is worryingly low. In a 2007 survey conducted by the ASEAN Foundation, 60% of ASEAN respondents agreed (and strongly agreed) that if ASEAN were to disappear, it would make no difference to their lives.
An inclusive and grassroots-driven process
Moving forward, ASEAN should recognise that it does not have the monopoly of promoting the interest of ASEAN and its peoples. A people-centred approach to regional community building embraces and accepts the diversity of views from within ASEAN. To that end, ASEAN in constructing its post-2015 vision should embrace an inclusive and grassroots-driven modality in its community building efforts.
Firstly, more spaces should be opened for collaboration between ASEAN together with its instrumentalities and civil society groups. In this regard, increased interface between civil society and ASEAN and the institutionalisation of such interface are crucial steps in the right direction. However, this is not enough to shed ASEAN’s perceived elite-driven approach to regional integration.
The growing number of attendance in the ASEAN Civil Society Conference over the years indicates the willingness of civil society members to take ownership of the ASEAN project and help shape the future of the region. ASEAN should capitalise on these knowledge and sentiments developed from the ground. Doing so can help ASEAN enhance its input legitimacy and help establish ASEAN as a truly people-centred community.
Secondly, ASEAN’s profile and awareness should be raised among ASEAN citizens. It is not that nothing has been done in that regard, it is just that it has not been given strong weight in the lists of priorities currently undertaken by ASEAN. Both the style and substance of how ASEAN is promulgated should change.
For instance, most people discover about ASEAN through official government and news outlets. But such dissemination of information about ASEAN – mostly through official accounts – only serve to re-inforce the motif that ASEAN is an abstract entity reserved only for governments and political leaders and not for ‘people like us’ to understand.
Governments could initiate an ASEAN-wide team of volunteers or activists to solicit views on what the ASEAN peoples would like to see in a post-2015 vision. Through this process of solicitation, people can come to better understand what ASEAN is about and raise issues that an elite-driven process might not see.
Not just for eminent people, experts and leaders
Thirdly, it is critical to engage the views of youths in ASEAN because it is the youths that will be affected most from the post-2015 ASEAN initiatives. A ‘whole-of-ASEAN’ approach to educate and communicate ‘ASEAN’ to the young people of ASEAN is needed. It is a tall order, no doubt, but not an impossible feat.
One way to start this is through ASEAN classrooms. Instead of studying the glorious Chinese and Indian empires, why not calibrate and explain the history of ASEAN and its importance in the region?
There are signs that key stakeholders recognise that need for greater inclusion in ASEAN activities. Malaysia, as the ASEAN Chair in 2015, has indicated that one of its main priorities would be to engage ASEAN citizens and to promote greater understanding of ASEAN initiatives and projects. Indeed, Malaysia’s Prime Minister Najib Razak noted that: “We also hope to steer ASEAN closer to the people of Southeast Asia: to make this institution part of people’s daily lives, by creating a truly people-centred ASEAN”.
If ASEAN is to genuinely aspire to be a ‘people-centred’ community, it would be prudent to ensure that the construction of a post-2015 ASEAN vision is an inclusive, open process that engages ASEAN citizens – not a closed process solely in the domain of eminent people, experts and political leaders.
-----
* Dylan Loh Ming Hui is a Research Analyst and Don Rodney Ong Junio is Associate Research Fellow of the Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS) at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.
-----
ASEAN's Post-2015 Vision: Inclusive And Non-Elitist? - Analysis - Eurasia Review
January 15, 2015 RSIS
2015 is the marker year for the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) to be realised. Whilst the focus will invariably be on the AEC, the formulation of a post-2015 ASEAN vision requires equal care and attention. It should be more inclusive and grass-roots driven.
By Dylan Loh Ming Hui and Don Rodney Ong Junio*
One of the cornerstones of the ASEAN Community building project is its “people-centred” approach to regional integration as opposed to the elite-driven and state-centric approach that ASEAN has been generally associated with.
As ASEAN enters 2015 – a watershed year with the realisation of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) – it is timely to examine how successful has ASEAN become in ensuring that voices from below are included in its various efforts to institutionalise a sense of regional community in Southeast Asia, especially in the context of formulating a post-2015 ASEAN vision.
The ASEAN Way as the Elite Way?
Well-established norms such as the ASEAN Way have limited the space for non-state actors to engage ASEAN. This is true for regional cross-cutting issues such as migration, human rights, and environmental protection that are being championed by civil society groups. However, this does not mean that there are no direct channels of engagement between civil society and ASEAN.
For example, one of the well-established regional fora held in parallel with the ASEAN Summit is the ASEAN Civil Society Conference / ASEAN Peoples’ Forum which was initiated in 2005 and has been held every year since then except in 2008. The forum brings together Non-Government Organisations (NGOs) across the region to discuss various issues affecting Southeast Asia.
The outcome of the forum is an official statement that is presented to an “interface meeting” where government representatives from ASEAN member-countries are present. Whether recommendations submitted by civil society groups are taken up by ASEAN is a different issue. There are also various issues associated with the ASEAN Civil Society Conference such as alleged intimidation and restrictions imposed by host governments during these meetings.
This brings into question the commitment of ASEAN in engaging civil society groups and its willingness to accept views coming from other stakeholders. Nonetheless, for some civil society groups, having this direct channel of engagement to ASEAN government officials, albeit weak, is counted as a small victory.
Even in the lead up to the AEC 2015, there were mutters of confusion from businesses, both small and large, on the impact and benefits that the AEC would bring. While governments in ASEAN are certain of the economic benefits arising from the AEC, the ‘lay stakeholders’ – general ASEAN citizens and businesses – are left to wonder what the fuss is all about.
ASEAN is 48 years old this year. However, the general awareness of ASEAN amongst the populace is worryingly low. In a 2007 survey conducted by the ASEAN Foundation, 60% of ASEAN respondents agreed (and strongly agreed) that if ASEAN were to disappear, it would make no difference to their lives.
An inclusive and grassroots-driven process
Moving forward, ASEAN should recognise that it does not have the monopoly of promoting the interest of ASEAN and its peoples. A people-centred approach to regional community building embraces and accepts the diversity of views from within ASEAN. To that end, ASEAN in constructing its post-2015 vision should embrace an inclusive and grassroots-driven modality in its community building efforts.
Firstly, more spaces should be opened for collaboration between ASEAN together with its instrumentalities and civil society groups. In this regard, increased interface between civil society and ASEAN and the institutionalisation of such interface are crucial steps in the right direction. However, this is not enough to shed ASEAN’s perceived elite-driven approach to regional integration.
The growing number of attendance in the ASEAN Civil Society Conference over the years indicates the willingness of civil society members to take ownership of the ASEAN project and help shape the future of the region. ASEAN should capitalise on these knowledge and sentiments developed from the ground. Doing so can help ASEAN enhance its input legitimacy and help establish ASEAN as a truly people-centred community.
Secondly, ASEAN’s profile and awareness should be raised among ASEAN citizens. It is not that nothing has been done in that regard, it is just that it has not been given strong weight in the lists of priorities currently undertaken by ASEAN. Both the style and substance of how ASEAN is promulgated should change.
For instance, most people discover about ASEAN through official government and news outlets. But such dissemination of information about ASEAN – mostly through official accounts – only serve to re-inforce the motif that ASEAN is an abstract entity reserved only for governments and political leaders and not for ‘people like us’ to understand.
Governments could initiate an ASEAN-wide team of volunteers or activists to solicit views on what the ASEAN peoples would like to see in a post-2015 vision. Through this process of solicitation, people can come to better understand what ASEAN is about and raise issues that an elite-driven process might not see.
Not just for eminent people, experts and leaders
Thirdly, it is critical to engage the views of youths in ASEAN because it is the youths that will be affected most from the post-2015 ASEAN initiatives. A ‘whole-of-ASEAN’ approach to educate and communicate ‘ASEAN’ to the young people of ASEAN is needed. It is a tall order, no doubt, but not an impossible feat.
One way to start this is through ASEAN classrooms. Instead of studying the glorious Chinese and Indian empires, why not calibrate and explain the history of ASEAN and its importance in the region?
There are signs that key stakeholders recognise that need for greater inclusion in ASEAN activities. Malaysia, as the ASEAN Chair in 2015, has indicated that one of its main priorities would be to engage ASEAN citizens and to promote greater understanding of ASEAN initiatives and projects. Indeed, Malaysia’s Prime Minister Najib Razak noted that: “We also hope to steer ASEAN closer to the people of Southeast Asia: to make this institution part of people’s daily lives, by creating a truly people-centred ASEAN”.
If ASEAN is to genuinely aspire to be a ‘people-centred’ community, it would be prudent to ensure that the construction of a post-2015 ASEAN vision is an inclusive, open process that engages ASEAN citizens – not a closed process solely in the domain of eminent people, experts and political leaders.
-----
* Dylan Loh Ming Hui is a Research Analyst and Don Rodney Ong Junio is Associate Research Fellow of the Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS) at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.
-----
ASEAN's Post-2015 Vision: Inclusive And Non-Elitist? - Analysis - Eurasia Review
Cossack25A1
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2014
- Messages
- 2,566
- Reaction score
- 2
- Country
- Location
Native ASEAN people learned a profound lesson from letting those Chinese-Camb like Pol Pot, Chinse-VNese like Ieng sary in power. When war break out wt Chinese, those ungrateful Chinese will immediately forget who grew them up and help China to kill their savior
Malaysia shows us what happens when the local Chinese are restricted due to the Bumiputera system, now want to see what happens when the local Chinese minority gains too much power and privilege? Look at our (Philippine) society, the Tsinoy oligarchy, particularly the later generation gained too much privilege that they hate the idea of removing the economic restriction due to their competition in the business field is always with their own kin and a foreign player that directly owns their investments could spell doom to the local Tsinoy business.
In fact, one member of that Tsinoy group who is also a member here revealed that he is against the idea of lifting the economic restriction, using the adage "foreign enslavement" as the reason.
Cossack25A1
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2014
- Messages
- 2,566
- Reaction score
- 2
- Country
- Location
AEC Dream’s Failure ‘Still A Success’
ASEAN looks unlikely to achieve its deadline, but the region will still benefit from integration.
By Anthony Fensom
March 28, 2015
-----
ASEAN’s goal of achieving economic integration by the end of 2015 has been largely written off by critics. But despite the delay, analysts still see sizeable gains from the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), particularly for the region’s bigger economies.
In a March 4 presentation, BMI Research’s head of Asia research, Cedric Chehab said ASEAN’s collective gross domestic product (GDP) would grow from $2.4 trillion in 2013 to more than $6.2 trillion by 2023, expanding at a compound annual growth rate of more than 10 percent. ASEAN’s share of global GDP is expected to increase from 3.2 percent to 4.7 percent by 2023, with its share of world trade rising from 5 to 6 percent.
“Asia’s GDP will double while ASEAN’s will more than double, and it’s faster growth than the Middle East and as large and larger than Africa…it’s quite difficult to find other regions with as strong growth prospects as ASEAN,” he said.
The economic growth will occur despite ASEAN’s expected failure to meet its self-imposed deadline, Chehab said.
“We don’t believe the AEC will actually meet the end-2015 deadline and in fact we see the AEC as more of an evolution rather than a revolution. The move toward the AEC will be a gradual process given the numerous trade and non-tariff barriers that currently exist,” he said.
The AEC is seen as the “realization of the end goal of regional economic integration” by ASEAN’s 10 member economies, comprising Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, encompassing more than 620 million people.
The AEC aims to transform ASEAN into a region with “free movement of goods, services, investment, skilled labor and freer flow of capital,” based on four key pillars of a single market and production base, a highly competitive economic region, equitable economic development and full integration into the global economy.
Yet after first being proposed in 2007 as part of the ASEAN Vision 2020, the deadline for the AEC was moved from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2015, with observers now reportedly eyeing a “post-2015 agenda,” despite official reassurances.
In November 2014, ASEAN reported that “good progress” had been made across approximately 88 percent of three pillars of the AEC. However, business has shown skepticism, with respondents to a survey of U.S. businesses in the region expressing doubts whether the AEC’s goals would be achieved even by 2020.
According to the “ASEAN Business Outlook Survey 2015,” just 4 percent of respondents considered it likely that the organization would achieve the AEC goals by the end-2015 deadline, down from 23 percent in the corresponding survey the previous year.
Nevertheless, 66 percent of respondents said ASEAN markets would become more important to their companies’ global revenues over the next two years, with 89 percent forecasting increased trade and investment over the coming five years.
According to the Asian Development Bank’s Jayant Menon, ASEAN has made the greatest progress in tariff reduction, with more than 70 percent of intra-ASEAN trade now incurring zero tariffs under the ASEAN Free Trade Area. According to ASEAN, average tariff rates on intra-ASEAN imports have declined from nearly 3 percent in 2003 to 0.5 percent in 2014.
However, gaps remain between the region’s larger and smaller economies in areas such as trade facilitation and investment liberalization, while services trade has proved harder to liberalize. Menon also cited problems in protecting intellectual property rights as well as reducing development disparities between the region’s rich and poor, although progress with the fourth pillar has seen the rise of “Factory ASEAN.”
“Accommodating AEC accords will not be easy when they require changes to domestic laws or even the national constitution. The flexibility that characterizes ASEAN cooperation, the celebrated ‘ASEAN way’, may hand member states a convenient pretext for non-compliance,” he warned in East Asia Forum.
“If the AEC is to be more than a display of political solidarity, ASEAN must find a way to give the commitments more teeth. The 2015 deadline should be viewed not as the final destination but as a milestone on the slow and long journey towards the AEC.”
Highlighting the region’s economic divide, both Brunei and Singapore had GDP per capita exceeding $35,000 in 2013, while Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand ranged from $2,700 to $10,400.
However, BMI’s Chehab said there were benefits to the slow implementation of the AEC, which he said could be delayed to 2018 or even 2020 due to its legal, compliance and institutional requirements.
“One positive dynamic from this slow and incremental process of integration is that it will limit the risks of larger versus strong stemming from rapid liberalization,” he said.
“Sometimes there are shocks associated with the rapid liberalization of a particular economy, including the forced restructuring of uncompetitive industries which are subject to foreign competition, but also sometimes you have uncontrolled capital inflows which can be the result of rapid economic liberalization. A piecemeal approach will help reduce the risk of such unintended consequences.”
Industry Winners And Losers
While ASEAN has nominated 11 “priority integration sectors” comprising agribusiness, air travel, automotive, e-ASEAN, electronics, fisheries, healthcare, rubber, textiles, tourism and wood, there are expected to be some winners and losers in the process.
In the auto sector, Chehab said Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia would further strengthen their position as manufacturing hubs, resulting in other countries such as the Philippines missing out on jobs and investment. Indonesia and the Philippines are expected to drive vehicle demand growth, given their large populations and low car ownership. Already, Japan’s Toyota Motor has flagged a new $1 billion investment in Indonesia, with Indonesian President Joko Widodo seeking further Japanese investment during his recent visit to Tokyo.
However, while smaller economies such as Cambodia and Laos are also expected to attract investment due to their lower wages, Chehab said non-tariff barriers such as excise duties could weigh on further integration, preventing the predicted industry growth from being fully realized.
The pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry is seen as another winner from the AEC, with Chehab predicting that ASEAN pharmaceutical sales will more than double by 2023, rising from $21 billion in 2013 to $50 billion, despite disparities in intellectual property rights and resources preventing full integration.
Chehab said increased government investment in healthcare and aging populations would spur demand, along with rising incomes. Private healthcare providers are expected to expand their regional footprint, while medical tourism should benefit Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand.
However, he warned of a potential “brain drain” of medical professionals from the less developed economies to their richer rivals, compounding a shortfall of medical staff and infrastructure in countries such as the Philippines and Indonesia.
“This is an existing trend, as for example many Filipino healthcare workers are already moving to Japan, but the AEC may accelerate this process, putting more pressure on some of the poorer countries which are unable to retain their staff,” he said.
In agribusiness, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam are expected to benefit the most, although given the sector’s political sensitivities, protectionist countries such as Indonesia may see limited gains. According to Chehab, Thailand could gain market share in sugar exports from the Philippines and Vietnam, while Vietnam should emerge as a winner in rice exports at the expense of Thailand. Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand should also benefit the most from growing demand for dairy products, he said.
Another key winner from the AEC should be the region’s consumer electronics, IT and telecommunications sector. This is despite slow progress on removing barriers to foreign investment, particularly in telecoms, where countries such as the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia have high levels of state involvement.
Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos should attract increased investment in consumer electronics due to their lower wages, with both Indonesia and Vietnam becoming sizeable growth markets. Meanwhile, Chebab said the e-ASEAN initiative and increased smartphone usage would boost e-commerce, with some 60 million new consumers gaining internet access over the next five years, particularly in Indonesia.
“As a whole, the ASEAN region will benefit tremendously from the growth opportunity, the increased specialization, the reduction in prices for consumer goods as well as the increased integration of these economies,” Chehab said.
However, despite the AEC’s potential, headwinds include protectionist pressures limiting reforms, along with a potential slowdown in major trading partners, given that intra-ASEAN trade accounts for only a quarter of the total. China’s position as the region’s largest trading partner has left ASEAN exposed to a slowing Chinese economy, while top foreign investor, the European Union is struggling to emerge from recession.
Concerns have also been raised about the ability of the ASEAN Secretariat to drive change given its limited resources compared to bodies such as the European Union.
Nevertheless, ASEAN’s growth potential should keep the region in the spotlight for some time to come, regardless of its expected stumbles toward full integration.
-----
AEC Dream’s Failure ‘Still A Success’ | The Diplomat
-----
ASEAN looks unlikely to achieve its deadline, but the region will still benefit from integration.
By Anthony Fensom
March 28, 2015
-----
ASEAN’s goal of achieving economic integration by the end of 2015 has been largely written off by critics. But despite the delay, analysts still see sizeable gains from the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), particularly for the region’s bigger economies.
In a March 4 presentation, BMI Research’s head of Asia research, Cedric Chehab said ASEAN’s collective gross domestic product (GDP) would grow from $2.4 trillion in 2013 to more than $6.2 trillion by 2023, expanding at a compound annual growth rate of more than 10 percent. ASEAN’s share of global GDP is expected to increase from 3.2 percent to 4.7 percent by 2023, with its share of world trade rising from 5 to 6 percent.
“Asia’s GDP will double while ASEAN’s will more than double, and it’s faster growth than the Middle East and as large and larger than Africa…it’s quite difficult to find other regions with as strong growth prospects as ASEAN,” he said.
The economic growth will occur despite ASEAN’s expected failure to meet its self-imposed deadline, Chehab said.
“We don’t believe the AEC will actually meet the end-2015 deadline and in fact we see the AEC as more of an evolution rather than a revolution. The move toward the AEC will be a gradual process given the numerous trade and non-tariff barriers that currently exist,” he said.
The AEC is seen as the “realization of the end goal of regional economic integration” by ASEAN’s 10 member economies, comprising Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, encompassing more than 620 million people.
The AEC aims to transform ASEAN into a region with “free movement of goods, services, investment, skilled labor and freer flow of capital,” based on four key pillars of a single market and production base, a highly competitive economic region, equitable economic development and full integration into the global economy.
Yet after first being proposed in 2007 as part of the ASEAN Vision 2020, the deadline for the AEC was moved from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2015, with observers now reportedly eyeing a “post-2015 agenda,” despite official reassurances.
In November 2014, ASEAN reported that “good progress” had been made across approximately 88 percent of three pillars of the AEC. However, business has shown skepticism, with respondents to a survey of U.S. businesses in the region expressing doubts whether the AEC’s goals would be achieved even by 2020.
According to the “ASEAN Business Outlook Survey 2015,” just 4 percent of respondents considered it likely that the organization would achieve the AEC goals by the end-2015 deadline, down from 23 percent in the corresponding survey the previous year.
Nevertheless, 66 percent of respondents said ASEAN markets would become more important to their companies’ global revenues over the next two years, with 89 percent forecasting increased trade and investment over the coming five years.
According to the Asian Development Bank’s Jayant Menon, ASEAN has made the greatest progress in tariff reduction, with more than 70 percent of intra-ASEAN trade now incurring zero tariffs under the ASEAN Free Trade Area. According to ASEAN, average tariff rates on intra-ASEAN imports have declined from nearly 3 percent in 2003 to 0.5 percent in 2014.
However, gaps remain between the region’s larger and smaller economies in areas such as trade facilitation and investment liberalization, while services trade has proved harder to liberalize. Menon also cited problems in protecting intellectual property rights as well as reducing development disparities between the region’s rich and poor, although progress with the fourth pillar has seen the rise of “Factory ASEAN.”
“Accommodating AEC accords will not be easy when they require changes to domestic laws or even the national constitution. The flexibility that characterizes ASEAN cooperation, the celebrated ‘ASEAN way’, may hand member states a convenient pretext for non-compliance,” he warned in East Asia Forum.
“If the AEC is to be more than a display of political solidarity, ASEAN must find a way to give the commitments more teeth. The 2015 deadline should be viewed not as the final destination but as a milestone on the slow and long journey towards the AEC.”
Highlighting the region’s economic divide, both Brunei and Singapore had GDP per capita exceeding $35,000 in 2013, while Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand ranged from $2,700 to $10,400.
However, BMI’s Chehab said there were benefits to the slow implementation of the AEC, which he said could be delayed to 2018 or even 2020 due to its legal, compliance and institutional requirements.
“One positive dynamic from this slow and incremental process of integration is that it will limit the risks of larger versus strong stemming from rapid liberalization,” he said.
“Sometimes there are shocks associated with the rapid liberalization of a particular economy, including the forced restructuring of uncompetitive industries which are subject to foreign competition, but also sometimes you have uncontrolled capital inflows which can be the result of rapid economic liberalization. A piecemeal approach will help reduce the risk of such unintended consequences.”
Industry Winners And Losers
While ASEAN has nominated 11 “priority integration sectors” comprising agribusiness, air travel, automotive, e-ASEAN, electronics, fisheries, healthcare, rubber, textiles, tourism and wood, there are expected to be some winners and losers in the process.
In the auto sector, Chehab said Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia would further strengthen their position as manufacturing hubs, resulting in other countries such as the Philippines missing out on jobs and investment. Indonesia and the Philippines are expected to drive vehicle demand growth, given their large populations and low car ownership. Already, Japan’s Toyota Motor has flagged a new $1 billion investment in Indonesia, with Indonesian President Joko Widodo seeking further Japanese investment during his recent visit to Tokyo.
However, while smaller economies such as Cambodia and Laos are also expected to attract investment due to their lower wages, Chehab said non-tariff barriers such as excise duties could weigh on further integration, preventing the predicted industry growth from being fully realized.
The pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry is seen as another winner from the AEC, with Chehab predicting that ASEAN pharmaceutical sales will more than double by 2023, rising from $21 billion in 2013 to $50 billion, despite disparities in intellectual property rights and resources preventing full integration.
Chehab said increased government investment in healthcare and aging populations would spur demand, along with rising incomes. Private healthcare providers are expected to expand their regional footprint, while medical tourism should benefit Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand.
However, he warned of a potential “brain drain” of medical professionals from the less developed economies to their richer rivals, compounding a shortfall of medical staff and infrastructure in countries such as the Philippines and Indonesia.
“This is an existing trend, as for example many Filipino healthcare workers are already moving to Japan, but the AEC may accelerate this process, putting more pressure on some of the poorer countries which are unable to retain their staff,” he said.
In agribusiness, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam are expected to benefit the most, although given the sector’s political sensitivities, protectionist countries such as Indonesia may see limited gains. According to Chehab, Thailand could gain market share in sugar exports from the Philippines and Vietnam, while Vietnam should emerge as a winner in rice exports at the expense of Thailand. Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand should also benefit the most from growing demand for dairy products, he said.
Another key winner from the AEC should be the region’s consumer electronics, IT and telecommunications sector. This is despite slow progress on removing barriers to foreign investment, particularly in telecoms, where countries such as the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia have high levels of state involvement.
Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos should attract increased investment in consumer electronics due to their lower wages, with both Indonesia and Vietnam becoming sizeable growth markets. Meanwhile, Chebab said the e-ASEAN initiative and increased smartphone usage would boost e-commerce, with some 60 million new consumers gaining internet access over the next five years, particularly in Indonesia.
“As a whole, the ASEAN region will benefit tremendously from the growth opportunity, the increased specialization, the reduction in prices for consumer goods as well as the increased integration of these economies,” Chehab said.
However, despite the AEC’s potential, headwinds include protectionist pressures limiting reforms, along with a potential slowdown in major trading partners, given that intra-ASEAN trade accounts for only a quarter of the total. China’s position as the region’s largest trading partner has left ASEAN exposed to a slowing Chinese economy, while top foreign investor, the European Union is struggling to emerge from recession.
Concerns have also been raised about the ability of the ASEAN Secretariat to drive change given its limited resources compared to bodies such as the European Union.
Nevertheless, ASEAN’s growth potential should keep the region in the spotlight for some time to come, regardless of its expected stumbles toward full integration.
-----
AEC Dream’s Failure ‘Still A Success’ | The Diplomat
-----
Nike
ELITE MEMBER
- Joined
- Mar 28, 2013
- Messages
- 13,867
- Reaction score
- 24
- Country
- Location
Asean: The Future in Wealth Management
By Kevin Martin on 08:23 pm May 17, 2015
Category Analysis, Business, Commentary, Opinion
Tags: HSBC, Wealth Management
Asean nations, Indonesia included, are projected to have a combined GDP of $4.7 trillion by the year 2020. (AFP Photo/Romeo Gacad)
Southeast Asia’s economic boom is resulting in the emergence of a new middle class, heralding vast opportunities for global wealth management.
Since the 1970’s, growth in this region was primarily driven by exports and manufacturing.
Today, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations is on its way to become one of the world’s leading consumption hubs, fuelling demand for a variety of goods and services, including financial services.
Asean is composed of Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.
We believe Asean’s middle class will play an increasingly important role in the shift in the balance of global demand over the next few decades, opening up new and unprecedented opportunities for the region and the world.
With about 600 million people, Asean countries represent only half of India’s population but collectively generate a larger gross domestic product. By 2020, Asean GDP is expected to grow at an annual average of 6 percent and reach $4.7 trillion.
By 2020, Asia is likely to contribute to more than half of the total global middle class population, with Asean accounting for more than $ 2 trillion of new consumption, according to the International Monetary Fund. Half of Asean’s projected population will be aged under 30.
With growing purchasing power comes greater aspirations among Asean consumers, driving stronger demand for property, cars, quality education and health care as well as financial services and wealth management.
Consumption patterns in Asean, however, are not even across this expansive and diverse region. We expect consumers in developing economies to continue directing a large portion of their disposable income towards improving general living standards whilst those in mature markets will forge ahead in consumption and investments.
For example, discretionary spending by more affluent middle class populations in Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand is far more pronounced in the region; while spending in Indonesia and the Philippines is focused on vehicles, appliances and education services to enhance quality of life.
Whilst Vietnam has the highest rate of credit card ownership, its emerging middle class is only starting to develop an appetite for luxury goods.
As populations across Asean become more affluent and the region’s emerging middle class continues to expand, there is a pressing need for services that will help individuals and families preserve, protect and perpetuate their new found prosperity.
As Southeast Asian populations age, they will need new channels to save for retirement, fund rising costs of health care and ensure adequate insurance protection in the absence of well-established social security systems.
We expect financial wealth in Asean to grow even faster than in China over the next five years, creating opportunities in international wealth and asset management. Asean has one of the highest saving rates in the world at around 30 percent and international reserves amounting to $800 billion.
While financial assets remain heavily concentrated in cash and in some markets, concentrated on single assets such as stocks, we expect investment behavior among Asean savers to eventually build a diversified portfolio of assets and move away from home biases.
Regional financial integration and market liberalization such as what is unfolding in China will allow for more efficient risk diversification of assets.
The development of its financial systems will also provide easier access to financing.
We see a future where wealth growth, protection and financing retirement, education and lifestyle needs will become priority goals for Asean consumers. It is critical that financial solutions are designed to meet these long term saving needs, offer transparency and fair value.
It is important that consumers have access to timely and relevant market information to help them make informed investment decisions either through self-directed channels or through qualified advisors.
There is also a need to ensure banking and wealth management cater to new consumer behavior.
As the new Asean working class gains greater financial independence, they seek new experiences through travel, education and employment opportunities overseas. They are also among the most active online users, accessing news and information, doing their shopping and conversations virtually — given social media’s deep penetration in the region, particularly in Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam.
The rise of the middle class will continue to be the big story for Southeast Asia’s economies over the coming years. The promise of growth will transform one of the most overlooked regions in the world to one of the most important.
Kevin Martin is head of Retail Banking and Wealth Management Asia-Pacific at HSBC
Asean: The Future in Wealth Management - The Jakarta Globe
By Kevin Martin on 08:23 pm May 17, 2015
Category Analysis, Business, Commentary, Opinion
Tags: HSBC, Wealth Management
Asean nations, Indonesia included, are projected to have a combined GDP of $4.7 trillion by the year 2020. (AFP Photo/Romeo Gacad)
Southeast Asia’s economic boom is resulting in the emergence of a new middle class, heralding vast opportunities for global wealth management.
Since the 1970’s, growth in this region was primarily driven by exports and manufacturing.
Today, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations is on its way to become one of the world’s leading consumption hubs, fuelling demand for a variety of goods and services, including financial services.
Asean is composed of Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.
We believe Asean’s middle class will play an increasingly important role in the shift in the balance of global demand over the next few decades, opening up new and unprecedented opportunities for the region and the world.
With about 600 million people, Asean countries represent only half of India’s population but collectively generate a larger gross domestic product. By 2020, Asean GDP is expected to grow at an annual average of 6 percent and reach $4.7 trillion.
By 2020, Asia is likely to contribute to more than half of the total global middle class population, with Asean accounting for more than $ 2 trillion of new consumption, according to the International Monetary Fund. Half of Asean’s projected population will be aged under 30.
With growing purchasing power comes greater aspirations among Asean consumers, driving stronger demand for property, cars, quality education and health care as well as financial services and wealth management.
Consumption patterns in Asean, however, are not even across this expansive and diverse region. We expect consumers in developing economies to continue directing a large portion of their disposable income towards improving general living standards whilst those in mature markets will forge ahead in consumption and investments.
For example, discretionary spending by more affluent middle class populations in Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand is far more pronounced in the region; while spending in Indonesia and the Philippines is focused on vehicles, appliances and education services to enhance quality of life.
Whilst Vietnam has the highest rate of credit card ownership, its emerging middle class is only starting to develop an appetite for luxury goods.
As populations across Asean become more affluent and the region’s emerging middle class continues to expand, there is a pressing need for services that will help individuals and families preserve, protect and perpetuate their new found prosperity.
As Southeast Asian populations age, they will need new channels to save for retirement, fund rising costs of health care and ensure adequate insurance protection in the absence of well-established social security systems.
We expect financial wealth in Asean to grow even faster than in China over the next five years, creating opportunities in international wealth and asset management. Asean has one of the highest saving rates in the world at around 30 percent and international reserves amounting to $800 billion.
While financial assets remain heavily concentrated in cash and in some markets, concentrated on single assets such as stocks, we expect investment behavior among Asean savers to eventually build a diversified portfolio of assets and move away from home biases.
Regional financial integration and market liberalization such as what is unfolding in China will allow for more efficient risk diversification of assets.
The development of its financial systems will also provide easier access to financing.
We see a future where wealth growth, protection and financing retirement, education and lifestyle needs will become priority goals for Asean consumers. It is critical that financial solutions are designed to meet these long term saving needs, offer transparency and fair value.
It is important that consumers have access to timely and relevant market information to help them make informed investment decisions either through self-directed channels or through qualified advisors.
There is also a need to ensure banking and wealth management cater to new consumer behavior.
As the new Asean working class gains greater financial independence, they seek new experiences through travel, education and employment opportunities overseas. They are also among the most active online users, accessing news and information, doing their shopping and conversations virtually — given social media’s deep penetration in the region, particularly in Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam.
The rise of the middle class will continue to be the big story for Southeast Asia’s economies over the coming years. The promise of growth will transform one of the most overlooked regions in the world to one of the most important.
Kevin Martin is head of Retail Banking and Wealth Management Asia-Pacific at HSBC
Asean: The Future in Wealth Management - The Jakarta Globe
Similar threads
