Asad umar speech updates on IMF, Revenues and tax reforms

[ziaulislam]

 

[El Sidd]

#Rejected

 

[ziaulislam]

1. Short fall will hit 350-450 billion rupees i.e 0.8-1% of GDP causing fiscak deficit to miss target easily to around 5.5-5.8%
2. Short fall is due to 20% import compression (40% revenues comes from imports), supreme court abolishing the withholding taxes, 100+ billion budget relief in first 2 months by PMLN and less collection of sales tax on oil&gas
3. IMF Demand of achieving fiscal consolidation within first year was not possible as govt anticpitated high falls in revnues due to import compression. There demand of fiscal adjustment should be achievable this year. Package size of IMF isnt important.
4. Second phase of support (china export credit and saudi deferred payment will kick in soon). Reserves already at comfortable level of 11+ billion dollars once data is released by statebank next week
5. FBR reforms still on the way and new rules on confidentially amended for greater data reach for FBR. Tax collection soon to be digitialized

 

[Samlee]

Asad Umar Should Do A Manmohan Singh.Go Into IMF Implement The Required Reforms And Get Out As Quickly As Possble This Time Make The Growth Sustainable So As Never To Go Back Again

 

[ziaulislam]

First year was dangerous..seems the tough time has passed..though FBR perfoemace next year will be challenge ..because govt will be aiming for another 1% consolidation to 4.5-4.9%

Inflation will remain high and might touch double figure is oil rebounds

 

[Path-Finder]

1. Short fall will hit 350-450 billion rupees i.e 0.8-1% of GDP causing fiscak deficit to miss target easily to around 5.5-5.8%
2. Short fall is due to 20% import compression (40% revenues comes from imports), supreme court abolishing the withholding taxes, 100+ billion budget relief in first 2 months by PMLN and less collection of sales tax on oil&gas
3. IMF Demand of achieving fiscal consolidation within first year was not possible as govt anticpitated high falls in revnues due to import compression. There demand of fiscal adjustment should be achievable this year. Package size of IMF isnt important.
4. Second phase of support (china export credit and saudi deferred payment will kick in soon). Reserves already at comfortable level of 11+ billion dollars once data is released by statebank next week
5. FBR reforms still on the way and new rules on confidentially amended for greater data reach for FBR. Tax collection soon to be digitialized

you have a good understanding of economy.

 

[Samlee]

1. Short fall will hit 350-450 billion rupees i.e 0.8-1% of GDP causing fiscak deficit to miss target easily to around 5.5-5.8%
2. Short fall is due to 20% import compression (40% revenues comes from imports), supreme court abolishing the withholding taxes, 100+ billion budget relief in first 2 months by PMLN and less collection of sales tax on oil&gas
3. IMF Demand of achieving fiscal consolidation within first year was not possible as govt anticpitated high falls in revnues due to import compression. There demand of fiscal adjustment should be achievable this year. Package size of IMF isnt important.
4. Second phase of support (china export credit and saudi deferred payment will kick in soon). Reserves already at comfortable level of 11+ billion dollars once data is released by statebank next week
5. FBR reforms still on the way and new rules on confidentially amended for greater data reach for FBR. Tax collection soon to be digitialized

1.Get Byco and PRL To Import Iranian Crude On Rupee/Barter Basis.This Can Save Forex Of Upto $6 Billion
2.Petrochemical Import Should Be Made From Iran Using Currency Swap Or Barter Terms.This Saves $2 TO 3 Billion
3.Palm Oil Of $2 Billion Should Be Done From Malaysia Using Their POCPA Facility
4.Closing Down All Furnace Oil Power Plants.Now Only LNG and Coal
5.A Portion of The Trade With China Should Be Done Using Currency Swap.This Would Save Massive Forex.
6.Massive Crackdown Against Hundi and Hawala.This Would Reroute Another Upto $20 Billion Worth Of Remittances Via Banking Channels

First year was dangerous..seems the tough time has passed..though FBR perfoemace next year will be challenge ..because govt will be aiming for another 1% consolidation to 4.5-4.9%

Inflation will remain high and might touch double figure is oil rebounds

Integrating Various Databases Will Result In Automatic Documentation of The Economy and Make Tax Collection Much Easier

 

[ziaulislam]

1.Get Byco and PRL To Import Iranian Crude On Rupee/Barter Basis.This Can Save Forex Of Upto $6 Billion
2.Petrochemical Import Should Be Made From Iran Using Currency Swap Or Barter Terms.This Saves $2 TO 3 Billion
3.Palm Oil Of $2 Billion Should Be Done From Malaysia Using Their POCPA Facility
4.Closing Down All Furnace Oil Power Plants.Now Only LNG and Coal
5.A Portion of The Trade With China Should Be Done Using Currency Swap.This Would Save Massive Forex.
6.Massive Crackdown Against Hundi and Hawala.This Would Reroute Another Upto $20 Billion Worth Of Remittances Via Banking Channels



Integrating Various Databases Will Result In Automatic Documentation of The Economy and Make Tax Collection Much Easier

No. 1&2 is going to be difficult because of American sanctions on state co operations that operate food items which can be bartered
No.3 is an option but most of palm oil comes from Indonesia. In reality we should simply not import any oil and purely focus on local production this can be achieved in 1 year as we need any form of cooking oil not palm oil
No.4 is a big problem because we dont have a cracker in place and takes 3 years to build one
In long run 5 is not going to change much.
No. 6 is important for money going out as well

you have a good understanding of economy.

Simple basics..i was the only personcritizing PMLN here in 2015-16 when Mr hitman started his policies ..other experts like mr Asfaq hassan khan were saying the same..it was clearly visible that PMLN formula was to get maximum revenues and capital to fund infrastructural projects by any means possible be it imports expansion (40% revenue source), low interest rates(caused historical low saving), low liquidity for private sector (caused historical low investment), tax refund grab, direct taxation and overvalued rupee

Result...
enough capital for short burst of time destroying the fabric of economy

In medical terms its like giving a steriod shot

This doom was predicted in 2017 budget

https://twitter.com/x/status/868872056590540800

 

[Samlee]

No. 1&2 is going to be difficult because of American sanctions on state co operations that operate food items which can be bartered
No.3 is an option but most of palm oil comes from Indonesia. In reality we should simply not import any oil and purely focus on local production this can be achieved in 1 year as we need any form of cooking oil not palm oil
No.4 is a big problem because we dont have a cracker in place and takes 3 years to build one
In long run 5 is not going to change much.
No. 6 is important for money going out as well

Sanctions Don't Matter Much EU Russia India and China Have Developed Workarounds.We Can As Well If We Want.
This Time It Is Much Easier B'Coz These Sanctions Are Purely American Not UN Based.Actually We Can Allow European and Chinese Companies To Trade With Iran Via Gwadar B'Coz Shipping Companies Cannot Dok At Iranian Ports Due To Insurance Issues

As For 4 You Are Right But A Process Can Be Started.

As For 5 In The Long Run This Can Be Extremely Beneficial Since Most Of Our Non-Oil Imports Are From China

 

[ziaulislam]

And here in 2016
https://tribune.com.pk/story/122915...s-external-debt-likely-swell-110b-four-years/

Sanctions Don't Matter Much EU Russia India and China Have Developed Workarounds.We Can As Well If We Want.
This Time It Is Much Easier B'Coz These Sanctions Are Purely American Not UN Based.Actually We Can Allow European and Chinese Companies To Trade With Iran Via Gwadar B'Coz Shipping Companies Cannot Dok At Iranian Ports Due To Insurance Issues

As For 4 You Are Right But A Process Can Be Started.

As For 5 In The Long Run This Can Be Extremely Beneficial Since Most Of Our Non-Oil Imports Are From China

Does matter for Pakistan ..you are going to IMF and dependent upon WB AB

Already started both public sector, UAE and saudis are on it and you should see ground breaking of at least 2 and possible 3 deep conversion plants

Even if swaps are done with china there is limit for which china will take these swaps!!!
Only solution is to increase exports to china

Rupee is like a paper and currency swap is like a loan ..nothing is going to change that..its as simple as that

You simply need more capital via loan(swaps), exports, tourism, investment ..

 

[Samlee]

And here in 2016
https://tribune.com.pk/story/122915...s-external-debt-likely-swell-110b-four-years/


Does matter for Pakistan ..you are going to IMF and dependent upon WB AB

Already started both public sector, UAE and saudis are on it and you should see ground breaking of at least 2 and possible 3 deep conversion plants

Even if swaps are done with china there is limit for which china will take these swaps!!!
Only solution is to increase exports to china

Rupee is like a paper and currency swap is like a loan ..nothing is going to change that..its as simple as that

You simply need more capital via loan(swaps), exports, tourism, investment ..

Uptil Now We Have Utilized Deposits From Saudi China and UAE.This Is Practically An Alternative To IMF Also We Don't Have To Make A Show And Tell Out Of Our Trade With Iran.We May Need IMF For Our Financial Issues But USA Needs Use To Bail Them Out Of Afghanistan.We Should Get A Waiver.

China Has Already Started To Facilitate Access To Their Markets By Increasing Our Sugar and Wheat Quota And This Is Just A Start Buy and Sell In Each Others Currencies And Waalah.

Another Thing Is That Using Diaspora Bonds To Refinance Our Debt and Support Our Forex.India and Egypt Have Done This Multiple Times

 

[ziaulislam]

Uptil Now We Have Utilized Deposits From Saudi China and UAE.This Is Practically An Alternative To IMF Also We Don't Have To Make A Show And Tell Out Of Our Trade With Iran.We May Need IMF For Our Financial Issues But USA Needs Use To Bail Them Out Of Afghanistan.We Should Get A Waiver.

China Has Already Started To Facilitate Access To Their Markets By Increasing Our Sugar and Wheat Quota And This Is Just A Start Buy and Sell In Each Others Currencies And Waalah.

Another Thing Is That Using Diaspora Bonds To Refinance Our Debt and Support Our Forex.India and Egypt Have Done This Multiple Times

We should get a waiver.. But before thag we cant
This is every huge topic but in nutshell..USA sanctionable matter UN sanctions matter less!
All companies arr withdrawing from iran
India china got waiver
Barter trade is possible but mechanism will have to be placed to isolate state banks from such transactions ..even if all if it is done iran will have to agree and seems they wont because of india

Dispora bonds have been released lets see the response

 

[Samlee]

We should get a waiver.. But before thag we cant
This is every huge topic but in nutshell..USA sanctionable matter UN sanctions matter less!
All companies arr withdrawing from iran
India china got waiver
Barter trade is possible but mechanism will have to be placed to isolate state banks from such transactions ..even if all if it is done iran will have to agree and seems they wont because of india

Dispora bonds have been released lets see the response

Non Dollar Trading With Iran and China Is One Among Many Ideas.But The Thing Is A Political Will Is Needed.My Issue Is The Government Is Not Taking Initiatives

 

[ziaulislam]

Non Dollar Trading With Iran and China Is One Among Many Ideas.But The Thing Is A Political Will Is Needed.My Issue Is The Government Is Not Taking Initiatives

Sir...
For non dollar trading you will need yen right?
Where will you get the yen from?
If you have exports you will get yen from china but if no exports than what..you will buy yen in exchange for dollars...

It's zero sum game...rupee has no value remember that ..

 

[rak_987]

@ziaulislam IMF ka kutta


FOod inflation would double, Pakistanis would be squeezed. We should find this guy and shove the dollars in his ****.